March 14, 2011 TO: FROM: RE: Kit Fischer, National Wildlife Federation Kelly Middendorff, Public Opinion Survey Results: Restoration of Wild Bison in Montana Methodology This memo contains results of a public opinion survey conducted February 23-24, 2011 by, Inc. a national public opinion research company. Telephone interviews were conducted among a representative sample of 400 registered voters statewide, plus an additional 30 interviews among sportsmen, for a total of 182 interviews among the sportsmen audience. (Sportsmen were defined as residents who have hunted in Montana within the last year.) Random Digit Dialing and probability sampling methods were used to select potential respondents and respondents were screened to include only those who are registered to vote in the state. The potential sampling error associated with the 400 statewide interviews is +/-5% at the 95% confidence level, and the sampling error associated with the 182 sportsmen interviews is +/- 7% at the 95% confidence level. This means that if the survey were conducted 100 times, the results would fall within the 5% plus or minus range 95 of the 100 times. Overview A majority of Montana voters favor restoration of wild bison populations in Montana; 55% favor and 33% oppose restoration, while 13% have no opinion. However, sportsmen (voters who have hunted in Montana in the past year) are divided; 47% favor and 44% oppose restoration of wild bison. Voters and sportsmen alike widely agree (63%) that wild bison can be managed in the same way other wildlife is managed in the state. There is widespread support (70% of voters, 68% of sportsmen) for having the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks explore possible locations for bison restoration and also widespread support for establishment of a wild bison population within the Spotted Dog state-owned wildlife management area near Deerlodge (72% of voters, 65% of sportsmen). Hunting of these wild bison also meets with wide favor among both the voting and sportsmen audiences (70% of voters, 84% of sportsmen). Voters and sportsman are widely in favor of restoration of a wild bison population around the Charles M. Russell National Wildlife Refuge (70% among voters and 60% among sportsmen), and the survey also finds widespread support for hunting bison around the CMR. More details follow. 2130 SW Jefferson St. Ste. 200, Portland, OR 97201 PO Box 86, Annapolis, MD 21404 Phone 503.221.3100 Fax 503.221.9861 Phone 410.216.9856 Fax 410.216.9857 www.moore-info.com
Current Perceptions of Wildlife in Montana Montanans share several widely held beliefs about wildlife in the state. For example, more than three-in-four voters statewide (77%), and eight-in-ten sportsmen (84%) are aware that bison used to occur just about everywhere in Montana East of the Rockies. There is a similar level of belief that except in national parks, most wildlife in Montana are managed by the State of Montana (70% voters, sportsmen), management of hunted wildlife like deer and elk in Montana is mostly paid for by fees paid by hunters and by a federal tax on hunting equipment (68% voters, 81% sportsmen), and that black bears are not a federally listed species in Montana and are managed by the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks (65% voters, sportsmen). Though agreement is not as widespread, a majority today believes The Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks has the responsibility for managing wildlife on private lands in Montana (52% voters, 66% sportsmen). Finally, only 29% of voters and 25% of sportsmen believe it true thatt there are no documented cases of a cattle disease called brucellosis being transmitted from wild bison to cattle. Current Perceptions about Wildlife Issues in Montana % Who Believes Each Statement is True Voters Sportsmen Bison used to occur just about everywhere in Montana east of the Rockies. 77% 84% Except in national parks, most wildlife in Montana are managed by the State of Montana. Management of hunted wildlife like deer and elk in Montana is mostly paid for by fees paid by hunters and by a federal tax on hunting equipment. Black bears are not a federally listed species in Montana and are managed by the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks. The Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks has the responsibility for managing wildlife on private lands in Montana. There are no documented cases of a cattle disease called brucellosis being transmitted from wild bison to cattle. 29% 25% 52% 70% 68% 81% 65% 66% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% To allow for additional analysis, we grouped respondents together based on how they answered this series of six questions. Those who answered at least five of the six questions true were grouped as most knowledgeable on wildlife issues in the state (31% of voters), while those who answered three or four of the six questions true were categorized as somewhat knowledgeable (50% of voters) and those who answered fewer than three questions as true comprise the least knowledgeable portion of the electorate (15% of voters). The most knowledgeable wildlife voters are likely to be comprised of voters who hunt several times a year (46% of them do, compared to 28% among the somewhat knowledgeable crowd and 14% among the least knowledgeable group), native Montanans (37% have lived here their entire lives, compared to 18% among the somewhat and least knowledgeable groups). Politically, the most knowledgeable group is more likely to consider 2
themselves Republicans (52% Republican, 32% Democrat) compared to the somewhat knowledgeable group (36% Republican, 42% Democrat) or least knowledgeable group (49% Republican, 31% Democrat). Finally, the most knowledgeable group is heavily male (67% male, 33% female), compared to the somewhat (41% male, 59% female) and least knowledgeable groups (36% male, 64% female). Restoration of Wild Bison Populations Restoration of wild bison populations meets with majority support from voters statewide today. Further, both the voting public and sportsmen share the belief that it is possible for Montana to manage wild bison in the same way that other wildlife species are managed in the state, like elk and deer. Indeed, upon hearing wild populations of bison used to roam throughout all of Eastern Montana but now wild populations occur only in and around Yellowstone National Park, 55% of voters statewide would favor and 33% would oppose restoration of other wild bison populations in the state. Among sportsmen, however, sentiment is divided 47% would favor but 44% are opposed to restoration of wild bison in Montana. Regionally, restoration is most likely to find favor in the Butte/Helena TV Market counties (63% favor), and women age 18-54 are more likely to favor restoring wild bison than older women and men of all ages. Further, support for restoring wild bison declines with length of residency in the state those who are newest to the state (lived here fewer than 15 years) are widely supportive (79% favor, 15% oppose), while native Montanans are divided on this issue (47% favor, 46% oppose). There is a significant variance of opinion on this issue along partisan lines Republican voters are opposed to restoring wild bison, (38% favor, 46% oppose), while Democrats are widely supportive (75% favor, 16% oppose). Independents are in favor, 54% to 34%. Looking at the hunting population, we find those who hunt several times a year are divided, but less frequent hunters are in favor, 54% to 36%. Non-hunters are in favor of restoring bison, 57% to 29%. Looking at voters level of knowledge on wildlife issues in the state, those most knowledgeable favor restoration of wild bison in Montana by a 53-37% margin, while those somewhat knowledgeable favor 55-34% and those least knowledgeable are in favor 62-25%. Belief that bison can be successfully managed just like deer and elk is shared by 63% of voters statewide (27% disagree) and 63% of sportsmen as well (31% of sportsmen disagree). Further, there is consensus agreement on this issue across all key demographic subgroups. Today, 70% of voters and 68% of sportsmen favor the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks investigating possible locations in Montana where wild bison populations could be restored. There is consensus support on this issue among all subgroups, but among the most supportive today are Democrats (86-12%). In terms of what kind of land Montanans believe is most suitable for restoring wild bison, we find no consensus. The survey asked those who favor restoration (55% of voters and 47% of sportsmen) whether wild bison should be restored on state-owned/managed lands, federals lands or reservations. Among voters who favor restoration, 38% believe bison should be restored on state-owned land such as state parks, state wildlife management areas and places where the state obtains easements from landowners, 35% believe bison should be restored on federal lands such as BLM and National Wildlife Refuges and Forest Service and another 13% say bison should be restored on tribal reservations. The remaining 14% have no opinion. Sentiment among sportsmen was almost identical (39% of sportsmen who favor restoration say bison should be restored on state-owned land, 38% federal land, 13% reservations and 11% no opinion). 3
On the issue of hunting bison, there is consensus support for allowing hunting of wild bison in Montana, the same way they hunt other species like deer and elk among voters (70% favor) and sportsmen alike (84% favor). Among those most knowledgeable about wildlife issues in the state, allowing hunting of wild bison populations in Montana is favored 80-17%, while those somewhat knowledgeable are in favor 68-26% and those least knowledgeable are in favor 61-28%. Message Testing The survey explored reactions to five pro-bison restoration messages and seven anti-bison restoration messages. The pro-bison restoration messages were asked only among those respondents who favor restoration, while the anti-bison restoration messages were asked only among those who oppose bison restoration. Looking first at reactions to the pro-bison restoration messages among those who favor restoration, we find more than seven-in-ten voters and sportsmen agree with each of the five statements in favor of bison restoration. Specifically, fully 94% of voters and 91% of sportsmen believe we should try to find places where we can have wild populations of all species of wildlife that once lived in Montana, including bison. Further, 89% of voters and 92% of sportsmen agree that a wild population of bison will be an economic asset to rural areas of Montana, in industries such as tourism and hunting for example and there were similar levels of agreement that bison are wildlife, just like elk or deer (86% of voters and 87% of sportsmen who favor bison restoration agree with this statement). Though wide majorities among both populations also agree it would be good if hunters could hunt wild bison in Montana, agreement is more widespread among sportsmen than voters ( of voters and 92% of sportsmen agree). Finally, more than seven-in-ten voters (77%) and sportsmen (71%) agree that bison and other wildlife species can coexist with few conflicts. The following chart shows reactions to each pro-bison restoration message among voters and sportsmen who favor bison restoration. 4
Pro-Bison Restoration Messages Among Those Who Favor Restoration (% Agree) We should try to find places where we can have wild populations of all species of wildlife that once lived in Montana, including bison. A wild population of bison will be an economic asset to rural areas of Montana, in industries such as tourism and hunting for example. Bison are wildlife just like elk or deer. Voters Sportsmen 94% 91% 89% 92% 86% 87% It would be good if hunters could hunt wild bison in Montana. 92% Bison and other wildlife species can co-exist with few conflicts. 71% 77% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Five of the seven anti-bisonn restoration messages tested among those who oppose restoration resonated with more than seven-in-ten voters and sportsmen. Fully 91% of voters and 95% of sportsmen who oppose bison restoration agree that bison will cause damage to private property like fences. There is also widespread agreement that bison will compete for food with other wildlife (89% voters, 84% sportsmen), that bison will compete for food with cattle on private lands (82% voters, sportsmen), that it will be impossible to keep bison off privately-owned lands (79% voters, 81% sportsmen), and that bison diseases may damage Montana s cattle industry (75% voters, sportsmen). There is also some concern about the dangers of bison to people, as 61% of voters and 56% of sportsmen agree that bison will pose a threat or danger to people. Finally, only 36% of voters and 49% of sportsmen agree that there isn t enough public land for a herd of bison in Montana. The following chart shows reactions to each anti-bison restoration message among voters and sportsmen who oppose bison restoration. 5
Anti-Bison Restoration Messages Among Those Who Oppose Restoration (% Agree) Bison will cause damage to private property like fences. Bison will compete for food with wildlife. other Bison will compete for food with cattle on private lands. It will be impossible to keep bison off privately-owned lands. Voters Sportsmen 91% 95% 89% 84% 82% 79% 81% Bison diseases may damage Montana s cattle industry. Bison will pose a threat or danger to people. 56% 61% 75% There isn t enough public land for a herd of bison in Montana. 36% 49% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Potential Locations for Wild Bison Population Reactions are positive to several possible locations for establishing wild bison populations in Montana. Specifically, Voters favor the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks establishing a bison population within the 26,000 acre Spotted Dog state-owned wildlife management near the Deerlodge areaa by a 72-22% margin and sportsmen favor this by a 65-30% margin. Restoration of a wild bison population in and around the CMR in north-central Montana is also favored by both voters (70-25%) and sportsmen (60-36%). Being allowed to hunt wild bison, if they were established in and around the CMR, is popular with both voters (75% favor) and sportsmen (90% favor). In terms of likelihood to hunt bison on the CMR, a third of sportsmen (34%) say they are very likely to do so, while 24% are fairly likely to do so, and another 42% are not very likely or not likely at all to do so. By comparison, just 10% of non-sportsmen would be very likely (5%) or fairly likely (5%) to hunt bison on the CMR. In a follow-up question, those who described themselves as very or fairly likely to hunt or not very likely to hunt wild bison were asked how much they would be willing to pay for a permit to hunt bison. Among sportsmen, 50% were willing to pay $50-$ $99, and another 25% were willing to pay $100-$249 for a permit. Just 10% were willing to pay $250 or more and 12% said they weren t willing to pay at all for a permit to hunt bison on the CMR. Among non-sportsmen, just 16% were willing to pay $50-$99, 18% would pay $100-$249 and 18% would pay $250-$499, with 11% willing to pay $500 or more. Another third of non-sportsmen (33%) would not be willing to pay anything to hunt bison on the CMR. 6
Information Source Credibility The survey explored the perceived trustworthiness of seven potential sources of information about bison restoration in Montana. The most trustworthy on this issue for voters and sportsmen alike are biologists with the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks (83% of voters and 82% of sportsmen have a great deal/some trust). In addition, sportsmen s organizations are also rated trustworthy by wide majorities of voters (72%) and sportsmen (85%). Thoughh trustworthy ratings are not as high, majorities also rate Montana s Indian tribes (66% voters, 59% sportsmen), the Montana Governor (65% voters, 60% sportsmen) and livestock organizations (61% voters, 65% sportsmen) as trustworthy on this issue. Less credible on the bison restoration issue are state legislators (48% voters, 52% sportsmen) and environmental organizations (41% voters, 28% sportsmen). Information Source Credibility (% Trust a Great Deal/Some) Voters Sportsmen Biologists with the Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks 83% 82% Sportsmen'ss organizations Montana' 's Indian tribes The Montana Governor Livestock organizations Your state legislators 72% 66% 59% 65% 60% 61% 65% 48% 52% 85% Environmental organizations 28% 41% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Looking at reactions by party affiliation, among Republicans the most credible information sources on bison restoration are biologists with MDFWP (80% great deal/some trust), sportsmen s organizations (79%) and livestock organizations (77%). For Democrats the most trustworthy groups are biologists with MDFWP (87%), Montana s Indian tribes (76%) and the Montana Governor (75%). The most credible groups with Independents are biologists with MDFWP (81%), sportsmen s organizations (72%), Montana s Indian tribes (66%) and the Governor (63%). Management of Bison By a 54-40% margin, voters agree that publically-owned bison should be given to tribes for their management on tribal lands. However, sportsmen are divided on this issue (47% agree, 48% disagree). By subgroup, voters who are most knowledgeable on wildlife issues in the state agree 55-41% that publically-owned bison should be given to tribes for their management on tribal lands, while those somewhat knowledgeable agree 56-38%. Those least knowledgeable on wildlife issues in the state are divided (47-47%). 7
If wild bison populations are restored in the state, there is consensus agreement among 59% of voters and 53% of sportsmen that the State of Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks should be responsible for the costs of restoring wild bison in Montana with revenues generated by hunting license fees and sporting excise taxes. Fewer believe conservation organizations (15% voters, 18% sportsmen), federal government dollars (10% voters, 12% sportsmen) or state tax dollars (3% voters, 3% sportsmen) should be responsible for the costs of restoring wild bison in Montana if they are given to tribes for their management on tribal lands. Forest Jobs and Recreation Act Today, 37% of voters and 45% of sportsmen say they are aware of the Forest Jobs and Recreation Act, sponsored by Senator John Tester. Among the most likely to be aware of the Forest Jobs and Recreation Act are residents in the Missoula and Butte/Helena TV Markets, men age 55+, Liberals and those who hunt several times a year. Among those aware of the Forest Jobs and Recreation Act, impressions of the law are more positive than negative. Among voters aware of the Act, it is favored by a 59-28% margin, while sportsmen who have heard of the Forest Jobs and Recreation Act favor it by a 51-37% margin. Environmental Issues Global warming and climate change is of concern to fewer than half of Montana s voters, including 29% who are very concerned about global warming and climate change and 18% who are fairly concerned, 23% who are not very concerned and 29% who are not concerned at all. The survey finds lower levels of concern about global warming and climate change among sportsmen (36% very/fairly concerned, 63% not very/not at all concerned). Differences in sentiment on this issue occur largely along party lines Democrats are widely concerned ( very/fairly concerned) about global warming, as are a majority of Independent voters (56%), but less than one-in-five (18%) Republicans share this concern. When it comes to energy costs, 44% of voters say they are very/fairly willing to pay higher energy costs in order to reduce the use of fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas, while 52% are not very willing/not willing at all. Sportsmen are less willing than the average voter to pay higher energy costs (34% very/fairly willing, 63% not very willing/not willing at all). Again, there are major differences in willingness to pay higher energy costs by party the majority of Democrats are very or fairly willing to pay higher energy costs to reduce reliance on fossil fuels (67% very/fairly willing, 30% not willing), while Independents are less likely to be on board (40% very/fairly willing, 51% not willing), and even fewer Republicans feel this way (28% very/fairly willing, 70% not willing). On the issue of the EPA s regulations, voters are divided. While 45% of voters agree that the EPA needs to do more to hold polluters accountable by placing stricter regulations in order to protect air and water quality, another 43% agree that the EPA already does too much and places too many costly restrictions on businesses and individuals. The remaining 12% have no opinion. Among sportsmen, 32% believe the EPA should do more, but the majority (56%) believes the EPA does too much already. Looking at key voter subgroup reactions, men are more likely to believe the EPA does too much already, but women are more likely to believe the EPA should do more. By party, a wide majority of Republicans believes the EPA does too much already, but most Democrats say the EPA should do more and Independents are divided. By length of residence, native 8
Montanans believe the EPA does too much already, but those new to the state within the past 15 years disagree. Hunting Habits Among voters in the state, 31% say they hunt several times a year, another 7% hunt just once a year and 6% hunt less often. The remaining 55% of voters say they never hunt. Among the sportsmen sample, 79% hunt several times a year and 21% hunt once a year. Looking at subgroups, among the most likely to hunt at least once a year are men, voters age 18-64, Conservatives, and Republicans. 9