californiawinning.com SANTA ANITA RACE COURSE Saturday, April 7, 2018 Message Board to My Subscribers Well, we do have a fascinating card today (thirteen races, who picked that number?), what with The Santa Anita Derby (Race 9) and four other graded races, plus two stakes races included in our thirteen-race card. Remember that the Santa Anita Derby one of only three qualifying races left for the Kentucky Derby. The other two qualifying races will be run next Saturday at Oaklawn (The Arkansas Derby) and Keeneland (The Lexington), as I reported previously. Note that Jorge Castellano and Joel Rosario, two prominent East Coast jockeys, flew in for respective mounts in the stakes, and other, races. Please note that I will not be handicapping the final race today, Race #13. That is because that race is comprised entirely of Arabian horses, about which I know nothing except that they are bigger than U.S. thoroughbreds. I would be doing you a major disservice if I purported to handicap that race for all of you, as many of the parameters I utilize to handicap thoroughbreds do not even appear in the past performance information for these horses. Fortunately, my understanding of today s card is that the late Pick 6 will be governed by the results of Races 7-12, inclusive, and avoid any consideration of Race 13. Similarly, the late Pick 5 will be governed by the winners of Races 8-12, inclusive, and not at all by the winner of Race 13. So, have a winsome day! This could be the best card of the year here and again I think the higher the quality of the horse (as in graded and stakes races), generally speaking, the more predictable they are. Counterpoint: these high class races can also feature a big longshot winning the race.hmm am I speaking out of both side of my mouth again? The Kentucky Derby (May 5) Our legendary trainer, Bob Baffert, sure has had a string of bad luck this year. He lost Mourinho forever a couple of weeks ago to a tragic misstep in a training accident. Now, McKinzie has suffered an undiagnosed musculoskeletal problem
that will keep him out of The Santa Anita Derby and may jeopardize his entry into The Kentucky Derby. By virtue of his resounding win in The Florida Derby last weekend, Audible has assured himself an entry into The Big Race. Other virtually certain entries into the twenty equines that comprise The Big Race: Noble Indy, Mendelsohn, Bolt D Oro, Enticed, Bravazo, and Promises Fulfilled. As before, I will be transmitting a free Kentucky Derby preview to all of you around May 1. My Kentucky Derby detailed analysis will be available soon thereafter, for $30. Note: Post time today is 11:30 am PDT and 2:30 pm EDT. Saturday, April 7, 2018 Santa Anita Race Course FOR AMUSEMENT---AND NOT BEMUSEMENT---ONLY!!! (Of course, these are recommendations only, and there are no guarantees in this sport, but that is what generates its mystique. And so, please follow your own heart and mind, considering me as a mere advisor, when making your selections. In any event, I do wish you all the best in your quest to predict the future, because it ain t easy. And remember, horses, just like us, have aches and pains, headaches, suffer fatigue, etc. Try not to get mad at me, I usually have excellent days, occasionally, not-so-excellent days: with all of the informative past performance data we handicappers have in front of us, we have no idea how a particular horse feels at race time. (By way of example, maybe that 50/1 colt is in a big hurry because he has a hot filly waiting for him back at the barn so please stick with me if there are a few speed-bumps along the way.) This analysis is prepared under the reasonable assumption that (i) all turf races will be run on a firm turf track, and (ii) all dirt races will be run on a track graded fast. Should different conditions exist at post time for a given race, please temper these selections with your own best judgment in light of less-than-ideal conditions. Please see my Handicapping Tips No. 6, What If It Rains on Race Day?, in this regard
Note: Please keep in mind that I call them as I see them and do not set the odds, nor do I even look at the M/L before I conduct my comprehensive analysis of each race I just select the horses who I believe are the most likely to come in first, second and third, respectively however, as we all know, a horse is a horse, of course, of course on any given day. Additional Note: There is no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise with respect to these graded selections, they are for amusement only. There is likewise no warranty, express, implied, legal, moral, or otherwise, for any failure on my part to transmit any daily analysis to you: your sole remedy in the unlikely event that happens is that you will receive a credit for one day s analysis and you will receive the next racing day s analysis free of charge. All purchases are final, and thank you. Incidentally, did you know: the average career of an NFL running back is a mere 2.57 years, and the average number of total career races for a thoroughbred is a mere eighteen races? Did you know: while thoroughbred horses tend to max out at about 40 m.p.h., quarter horses in very short races have been clocked at 55 m.p.h For only $2 for a daily card, or $20 for a thirty-day subscription, you can have my full card delivered to your electronic mail inbox for each racing day for a calendar month. Even if you prefer your selections to mine, look at it this way: I provide a rather elegant summary, in one sentence, of all of the relevant information from the past performances of three contestants, the three horses whom most would agree are the contenders just look after Today s Free Selections below to see how to order, and thank you THE FOLLOWING ARE TODAY S FREE SELECTIONS : Races 7-12 Note- for newcomers: here is the definition of a Likeable Longshot : it is a horse whom we do not expect to win or place in the contest, however, his/her payoff will be huge (usually, 10/1 or better) and there is some other mitigating factor that suggests that a nominal bet could payoff really nicely. Other mitigating factors
which suggest you make a nominal (by your definition) win/place bet on this longshot might include one of more of the following: the horse has a high percentage of winning at race distance, he or she carries a great jockey, or carries a good jockey with a significant weight allowance, or, the horse comes out fourth in your ranking of the top three, and so on and so on. Sometimes it is almost visceral, preternatural even I am sure you get the idea now don t bet the house but it makes an excellent beer money, as in Bud Light, bet! Likeable Longshots are not available in this free version of californiawinning.com s selections, because M/ L odds were not available at the time of this posting. To view Likeable Longshots please go to californiawinnig.com and click on Today s Full Racing Card and follow the process indicated. You will be glad you did, my subscribers are way ahead on the Likeable Longshots--- we just had a $75 winner recently, $75 for $2!!! ***** RACE 7: Well-rested Sawyer s Hill is the narrow M/L favorite, as the elder horse has only won four of eight races at RD, and his eight tries at RD surpass all other entries tries, he closes out well and hits the board in two of three turf races, look for him to battle. Mesut has spent most of his race life in the turf sprint, however he placed last time out at a mile and one-eighth here with this top rider aboard, his first grass route worked out very well for him as he missed a win by only one-half length, his dirt works are superior and he will vie. Cascade Rock is a fine Irish lad, born and bred on the lush county green (County Donegal), he enjoys the grass mile (OB 2/3) and has hit the board in seven of nine grass races, four times in routes, he comes off a win here at Rd with the turf master Nakatani aboard, and he shows some excellent grass works to boot. Likeable Longshot: (Available only in the paid version, see below ) RACE 8: Well-rested Clever Royal is a grizzled veteran who still shows a string of very good dirt works, although have of his racing career has been spent on the grass, he
has a very good trainer and appears to be an overlay to me. Well-rested Conqueror is the narrow M/L favorite, as he comes off a win here at RD (one of only two entries with a win at RD), he has won two of five dirt races, the other win at six furlongs, and his riding team would be hard to beat (Cerin/Desormeaux). Rocko s Wheel moves down, has won four of eleven dirt races, all route wins, he missed most of 2017 and did not like the slop here last time out, but he has a top trainer and I see him as a threat. RACE 9: The Santa Anita Derby, G I, One and one-eighth miles on the Main Track Background As you know this race is one of three remaining races where entries can earn points to qualify for The Kentucky Derby, only four weeks away. And so today we find at least three potential Kentucky Derby qualifiers in this race: Instilled Regard, Bolt D Oro, and Justify, not in any order. The first Santa Anita Derby was in 1976. The fastest time for the mile and oneeighth was 1:47:00, and the biggest margin of victory was eleven lengths. Last year, Gormley won the race, with Victor Espinoza in the irons. (Many thanks to Equibase.) The Analysis Although the odds maker(s) favor (this analysis is available only in the paid version of the californiawinning.com analysis for this date. Please see below ) RACE 10: The Royal Heroine, G II, One mile on the turf OK you got me: I confess that I love this horse, the extremely well-rested Enola Gray (where has she been since last July?); she is the deserving, though narrow, M/L favorite, as she comes off a win here at RD in a graded race last July, she always closes out very well, this lightly raced five year old has won four of five grass races, albeit three of those wins were at sprint distance, she is trained by one of the best and carries a top-notch rider to boot, plus she won over $20000 last year while racing only six months. Rested Madame Stripes has a graded turf win here at one mile on her c.v., the mare she always hits the board in the turf route, at
which she has plenty of experience, she is trained by one of the best, finished a couple of lengths behind Enola Gray when the two dueled here at RD last July, and today carries turf master and HOF er Desormeaux. Thundering Sky looks for her first graded race victory, but she has won two of nine at RD and has hit the board in eight of nine at such distance, she is trained by one of the best and is good enough to show up. RACE 11: Midnight Bisou just might walk here, as the filly, the overwhelming M/L favorite, is one of two entries with a win at RD, she comes off two easy wins here in graded route races, with this very selective HOF rider in the irons, her recent workout of six furlongs here on March 31 @ 1:12 4 is another harbinger of a good race today. Spring Lily finished, third, ten lengths behind Midnight Bisou in the slop here last time out, graded, at RD, her string of recent works is fairly impressive and today she carries a HOF rider for the first time, I think she will pressure this field. Thirteen Squared finished second only a couple of lengths behind Midnight Bisou in that very same sloppy race, she is trained by a legend as much as a man, has shown early unchallenged speed, the mark of a filly who knows that she is supposed to beat the pack to the wire, and of course sports those Baffert-esque excellent works; her rider is very good as well, and she could surprise. Likeable Longshot: (These are available only in the paid version of californiawinning.com, please see below ) RACE 12: At least all ten entries have raced on the turf (#6 just once, no success) Pantsonfire, a fine Irish lass, born and bred on the lush county green (County Kerry), is one of three entries with a win at RD, which came here last February, she hit the board in 70% of her grass races, is trained by one of the best and carries a talented rider as well. Well-rested Queen Blossom is a fine Irish lady (County Mayo), she secures some class relief, knows almost nothing but grass races in excess of one mile, and she challenges in most of those races, look for her to make a bid. Extremely well-rested Hachi, a rare Chilean entry, making her U.S. debut, has won a heady four of fourteen grass races, all wins at one mile
or longer, the mare shows terrific (dirt) works, carries a phenomenal East Coast jockey, Jorge Castellano, she could indeed foul up some high falutin post-race dinner plans of other owners. Likeable Longshot: (These are available only in the paid version of the californiawinning.com analysis, see below) ***** californiawinning.com To see the rest of today s analysis---including the all-important Likeable Longshots--- Why not subscribe now, it s less than $1 per day less than what the touts charged for their card when this track opened on December 25, 1934 So, for either Today s Full Race card for the mere sum of $2, or, better yet, to subscribe for 30 calendar days analysis for only $20, go to californiawinning.com, click on Today s Full Race Card and pay through your PayPal account (or use a credit card or debit card), OR for an easier one-click process go to PayPal.me/SailorBoston and make your payment Thanks very much. Today s deadline for payments is 2:00 p.m. PDT, 5:00 p.m. EDT, and I will send you today s selections promptly after you make your payment. If you have made a payment after that time in error, I will issue a credit to you. Thank you. Comments, constructive criticism? For example, how soon before the first post time should I try to post my recommendations? Try: fryer08057@yahoo.com Also, check out my free Handicapping Tips at californiawinning.com. You will really like the one, Probabilities (Pick 6) It s a can t miss and the latest one, What If It Rains on Race Day?