Aintree Grand National Meeting 2019: Stats/Trends Pack Trainer Stats Pointers Stats refer to the previous 10 years unless stated, and to BFSP unless stated Cheltenham Festival Last Time Out Sent off 3/1 or shorter SP: 133 bets / 54 wins / 93 places / 40% SR / +9 SP / +12 BFSP o N Henderson: 17/29, 20p, +11 o P Nicholls: 8/25,15p, -9 SP o W Mullins: 5/13,10p, -1 SP (he targeted 2016 when going for the trainer s championship, in a normal year he s had 1-3 runners at meeting) o X3: C Tizzard (3/6,6p), P Hobbs (3/4,4p) o X2: E Bolger / T George / NTD (runners last ran at Cheltenham Festival) Nicky Henderson 10/1 or shorter SP: 80 bets / 27 wins / 44p / 34% sr / +45 BFSP o Aged 5 or 6: 17/39, 23p, +40 o Top 2 LTO: 16/31, 22p, +18 Paul Nicholls Grade 1 and 2 Hurdles/Chases (not Novice): 37 bets / 11 wins / 13p / 30% sr / +27 Colin Tizzard All runners/all odds: 43 best / 10 wins / 21p / 23% sr / +147 o Last 3 years: 9/25, 15p, +135 o Covers all his handicap winners, they all ran at Cheltenham Fest LTO Phillip Hobbs Not Handicap Hurdles: 30 bets / 6 wins / 17p / 20% sr / +19 o Top 8 LTO: 6/17, 13p, +32 o 9/2 or shorter SP: 4/11, 8p, +4 s Gordon Elliot/Age 5-8: 4/13,7p, +21 Tom George: 10/1 or shorter SP: 4/9, 6p, +32 Gary Moore/All: 3/11, 5p, +55 1
END of Chelt Festival LTO Stats ** Trainer Pointers: All Handicaps Nicky Henderson: 2m-2m5.5f / Aged 6 / 28/1< guide: 5/17,6p, +94 Jonjo O Neill: 1 run in last 90 days only / 22/1< guide: 5/13, 7p, +67 * Handicaps: Race Stats/Trends Pointers Day 1 4.40 - Red Rum Handicap Chase Day 2 1.45-2m4f G3 Handicap Hurdle 4.05 - Topham Chase Day 3 1.45 3m.5f Handicap Hurdle 4.20 3m1f Handicap Chase 5.15 The Grand National 6.20 - Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys) 2
Day 1 4.40 - Red Rum Handicap Chase 10/151, 36p 9/10 carried 11-1 or less on back (11-2+ : 1/53, 10p.. winner 11-11) 9/10 had yet to run beyond 2m4.5f in career (Had done so: 1/67, 10p) 9/10 had 1-2 wins this season (did not: 1/64, 11p) 8/10 had 0-1 runs in the class (2+ : 2/76, 16p) 8/10 had 0-2 chase wins (3+ : 2/73, 10p) Ran over hurdles LTO: 2/9 runners,5p, +25 Horse wore headgear: 3/33, 9p (inc 2 of last 3) X1: C Longsdon/T George/D McCain/C Tizzard/A King/P Nicholls/ M Jefferson 3
Day 2 1.45-2m4f G3 Handicap Hurdle 10/214, 40p 10/10 yet to win above listed level (had: 0/47, 6p) 10/10 had WON over at least 19f (Had not: 0/103, 17p) Caution over max distance win 17.5-18f: 0/10,2p Max win dist win 16-17f : 0/93, 15p) 10/10 had 0-2 runs prev 90 days (3+ : 0/62, 8p) 10/10 had 2+ hurdle wins (0-1: 0/46, 9p) 9/10 had placed at least once last two starts (had not: 1/84, 12p) 1x hurdle run at Aintree only: 0/60, 8p (an odd random stat maybe) 5 or 7lb claim: 0/23, 1p Sent off 33/1 or bigger LTO: 0/44, 5p Did NOT run over hurdles LTO: 0/22,0p Track LTO Cheltenham: 6/103, 22p X1: Kempton / Uttoxeter / Doncaster/ Warwick N Henderson: 3/22, 6p X1: G Elliot/J Candlish/D McCain/A King/Jonjo O Neill/T Lacey/ M Jefferson 4
4.05 - Topham Chase 10/286, 40p (some caution as Always Waining won this x3, and Ultra Gold x2, so 5/10 winners from two horses) 10/10 had run at G3+ (had not: 0/47, 3p) 9/10 had run G3/G2 max. Had run G1 level: 1/126, 15p 10/10 were running at same class (G3) or up 3 classes max (0/77,9p did were not) Dropping 1 or 2 classes: 0/60, 8p 10/10 had run over 2m6.5f + in career (Had not: 0/46,2p) Had run over 4m 0.5f + : 4/23,9p 10/10 had 4-8 runs this season (did not: 0/81,7p) 10/10 had run at G3 level (0: 0/86, 9p) 10/10 had 0-1 wins this season (2+ : 0/70, 7p) 10/10 had 1+ handicap chase win (0: 0/51,7p) 9/10 sent off 22/1 or shorter SP 25/1+ : 1/154, 15p 14/1< : 7/72, 14p 9/10 had NOT won in their last 4 starts (had: 1/151, 19p) 9/10 had been ridden by jockey x4+ previously (0-3: 1/146, 14p) 8/10 ran 6-30 days ago 31-75: 0/92, 6p 76+ : 1/36, 4p 7/10 had 7-10 places (inc wins) in handicap chases (7/47,12p) 2 places (inc wins only): 3/54, 8p 0-1: 0/61, 7p 3-6: 0/114, 12p 6/10 ran at Cheltenham Festival LTO (6/96, 18p) 5
Aged 7: 0/44,3p Yet to run beyond 2m6f: 0/46,2p 0 runs prev 90 days: 0/26,2p 1 track run only: 0/70,12p 7-13 chase runs: 0/131, 9p 0 runs over higher distance than today: 0/34,2p 6-8 career wins: 0/83, 10p 0 handicap wins: 0/42, 6p Ran in novice race LTO: 0/16,1p WON LTO: 0/31,2p Ran in non-handicap LTO: 0/35, 5p Track LTO Chelt: 6/104, 19p X1: Bangor / Uttox / Chep/ Sand Kempton: 0/18,3p Newbury: 0/26,2p P Bowen: 3/10,4p N Henderson: 3/20,6p C Tizzard: 2/9, 4p X1: Jonjo O Neill / NTD P Nicholls: 0/23,2p D Pipe: 0/14,0p 6
Day 3 1.45 3m.5f Handicap Hurdle 10/208, 40p 10/10 placed at least once on last two starts (did not: 0/53, 5p) 9/10 sent off 16/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 1/93,9p, winner 50/1) 8/10 ran over 2m4-2m5.5f LTO (did not: 2/123,21p) 8/10 placed on last starts (8/89, 23p, did not.. 2/119, 17p) 7/10 had 0 wins in handicap hurdles (7/65, 14p) 5/10 were having 2 nd start in a handicap hurdle (5/19,8p, +85) Handicap hurdle debut: 0/19,2p 5lb/7lb claim: 0/31, 3p 5/30,9p, +71 ran in a race for Novices race LTO o Handicap Novice 4/6,6p Track LTO Cheltenham: 6/123, 21p Sand: 2/5,2p X1: Plump/Hunt D Pipe: 3/18, 5p X1: G Moore/Jonjo O Neill/M Jefferson/A Honeyball/G Elliot/P Webber/K Bishop P Hobbs: 0/17,2p N Henderson: 0/14,1p P Nicholls: 0/13,2p D McCain: 0/10,0p 7
4.20 3m1f Handicap Chase 10/153, 36p 10/10 had 0-1 handicap chase wins (2+ : 0/58, 7p) 9/10 sent off 12/1 or shorter SP (bigger: 1/83, 12p) 9/10 ran at a Festival (as defined in HRB) LTO (did not: 1/68, 14p) 6/10 ran at Cheltenham Festival LTO (6/63,16p) 3/10 ran at Aintree Nat meeting / Newbury 2 Day Feb March/Newbury Spring Top 3 in weights: 0/30, 5p 1 track run: 0/41,5p Ran RH LTO: 0/26,6p Ran over hurdles LTO: 2/10,5p PU LTO: 0/18,2p Track LTO Cheltenham: 6/68, 17p Newbury: 2/14,3p X1: Aintree/Kelso P Hobbs: 3/9, 4p X1: C Tizzad/P Griffin/T Vaughan/Jonjo O Neill/K Bishop / T Lacey 8
5.15 The Grand National 6/236, 24p (I ve looked at the last 6 renewals as from the 2012 Becher Chase the fences were modified, and it has made it a different race in a few respects. Discretionary handicapping is also more influential than used to be the case) 6/6 Aged 8-11 8: 3/46,8p 9: 1/71, 5p 10: 0/54, 4p 11: 2/28,4p 12+: 0/26, 3p 6/6 had RUN at G1/2 Level (Had not: 0/39,3p) 6/6 had 4+ runs prev 365 days: (0-3: 0/71, 3p) 6/6 had 18+ career runs: (17< : 0/64,5p) 6/6 had 3+ runs this season: (0-2: 0/52, 3p) 5 + 6 runs: 0/66, 4p 6/6 had 2-5 runs in the class (G3) 0-1: 0/60, 4p 6+ : 0/46, 5p 6/6 had 5-8 career wins 0-4: 0/68, 7p 9+ : 0/26, 2p 6/6 had 0-3 handicap chase wins (4+: 0/32, 4p) 0: 1/66, 4p 6/6 had 5-8 wins under National Hunt Rules Did Not: 0/93, 9p 6/6 had 1-5 places (inc wins) in handicap chases Did not: 0/92, 4p 6/6 ran Left Handed LTO (RH: 0/63, 4p) 6/6 Top 6 LTO PU: 0/33,3p 7 th or worse but completed: 0/39,3p 9
5/6 carried 10-13 or less 11-00 + : 1/62, 5p o 11-8-9: 1/7,2p o 11-10: 0/6,0p 5/6 had finished top 2 at least once last 3 runs (Had Not: 1/84,7p) 5/6 Max Distance Run between 3m4f-4m.5f: 5/70, 8p Yet to run beyond 3m2f: 0/40, 2p Had run 4m2.5f+ previously: 0/78, 9p 5/6 had WON over 25f+ : (had not: 1/83, 4p) 5/6 had 10-16 chase runs (outside this: 1/124,11p) 5/6 had 1-9 handicap chase runs (Had not: 1/98,9p) 5/6 had 3 or 5 chase wins 0-2: 1/57, 5p 4: 0/50,1p 6+ : 0/27, 2p 10lb+ higher than LTO: 2/8, 3p (suspect won since the weights were published and thus now technically well-in ) 0 Runs 90 Days: 0/18, 1p Jockey had not ridden or only ridden once: 1/92,7p Horses last win was 3-7 starts ago: 0/118, 9p Horse had 0 places (inc wins) in Handica Chase: 0/28,0p 3/56,8p ran at Chelt Festival LTO (10 years) X1: P Nicholls/ Jonjo O Neill/Sue Smith/G Elliot/O Sherwood/Dr Newland/L Russell/D McCain/M Morris/V Williams 10
6.20 - Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys) 10/200,39p 10/10 had run at Listed level or higher (had not: 0/44, 7p) 10/10 were running at same distance or down ½ furlong only (0/98,15p were not) (Ran over 16.5 or 17f LTO) 9/10 yet to win beyond 2m ½ furlong (had won 17f+ : 1/101,19p) 9/10 had 0-5 handicap hurdle runs (6+ : 1/86, 17p) 1 only: 0/28,4p 9/10 ran LH LTO (RH: 1/71, 12p) 8/10 had 14 or fewer career runs (8/79, 18p) (15+ : 2/121, 21p) 6/10 sent of 16/1+ LTO (inc 4 sent off 33/1-66/1 LTO) 5/10 ran at Cheltenham Festival LTO (5/46, 10p, +208) Top weight: 3/10,3p, +41 Horse running same class or drop 1: 0/43, 5p 3+ wins this season: 0/26, 5p Track LTO Cheltenham: 6/50, 11p X1: Newbury/Stratford/Hunt/Donc Sandown: 0/22,3p X1: W Mullins / Seamus Mullins / R Walford/A Carroll/P Nolan/N Gifford/E Williams/ JJ Quinn/N Henderson/ L Russell * END Josh 11