Private Bag X097, Pretoria, 0001 Tel: + 27 (0) 12 367 6000 www.weathersa.co.za USSD: *120*7297# FQZA31 FAPR 241330 SECURITE: ========= WEATHER BULLETIN FOR THE HIGH SEAS FOR METAREA VII. ISSUED BY THE SOUTH AFRICAN WEATHER SERVICE ON THE 24th of APRIL 2019 AT 13:30 UTC. FOR SOUTH-EAST SECTOR OF METAREA. VII, PREPARED BY REUNION, SEE AREA 2 BELOW. NOTE: WX OBSERVATIONS. ====================== COULD ALL VESSELS EXPERIENCING UNEXPECTED, SEVERE WX/SEA STATE PLEASE MAKE EVERY EFFORT TO REPORT THIS TO SAWS VIA CAPE TOWN RADIO. AREA 1: ======= FORECAST VALID FROM 242200 to 252200 UTC: WIND IN KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS IN METERS. NO SEA STATE GIVEN IF WAVES LESS THAN 3M. NOTE THE WIND SPEEDS QUOTED HERE ARE THE EXPECTED AVERAGE SPEEDS. INDIVIDUAL GUSTS MAY EXCEED THESE VALUES BY A FACTOR OF UP TO 1.5. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY INDIVIDUAL WAVES 1.5 TO 2.0 TIMES HIGHER. THESE ESTIMATES OF WINDS AND WAVES DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE ENHANCING EFFECTS OF THE AGULHAS CURRENT OFF THE SOUTH AFRICAN EAST COAST. RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/14/20182019 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH) 2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.3 S / 44.4 E (ELEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170 34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 42.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 39.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, OVERLAND 48H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 39.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, OVERLAND 60H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND 72H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 11.9 S / 39.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND GALE FORCE WARNINGS: ==================== 1. GOUGH FORTIES: SW 35 in the south east. 2. METEOR FORTIES: N to NW 35 in the west spreading to the south west, becoming SW 35 to 40 in the south spreading eastwards by the end of 3. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: Cyclonic 35 to 45 in the north west, moderating Thursday evening. SYNOPTIC SITUATION AT 06:00Z: ============================= High 1026 hpa 39s37e. Low 990 hpa 46s07w Low 978 hpa 11s44e. 1. Cold Front: 30s15w 35s10w 40s07w into 46s07w cont. 55s28e 60s32e into 65s15e. AREA FORECAST ============== ASCENSION (06S/15S, 00E/20W) WIND : SE to E 10 to 20. ANGOLA (06S/15S, 00E/WEST COAST WIND : SW 05 to 15 in the extreme east, otherwise S to SE 10 to 20. VIS : Good but poor fog patches in the extreme east in the early morning. Page 2 of 5
ST HELENA (15S/30S, 00E/20W) WIND : Variable 05 in the south, otherwise SE to E 15 to 25. TRADES (15S/30S, 00E/WEST COAST) WIND : S to SE 15 to 25. TRISTAN (30S/40S, 00E/20W) WIND : N to NW 15 to 25 in the east, otherwise SW 20 to 30, but SE 10 to 20 in the north becoming variable 05 from the west on Thursday afternoon. VIS : Moderate in showers and rain in the south west first half of SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m reaching 5.0m in the south, SW swell. CAPE WEST (30S/40S, 00E/20E) WIND : S to SE 20 to 30 in the east, otherwise N to NW 15 to 25, becoming SW 15 to 25 in the south west. VIS : Good but moderate in the south and south west first half of SEA STATE: 3.0m in the south west, SW swell. GOUGH FORTIES (40S/50S, 00E/20W) WIND : SW 20 to 30 reaching 35 in the south east. VIS : Moderate in showers and rain clearing from the west. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, SW swell but NW swell in places. METEOR FORTIES (40S/50S, 00E/20E) WIND : N to NW 20 to 30 reaching 35 in the west spreading to the south west, becoming SW 30 to 40 in the south spreading eastwards by the end of the period. VIS : Moderate in showers and rain. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m reaching 4.5 to 5.0m in the south, SW swell. CAPE EAST (32.5S/40S, 20E/50E) WIND : E to NE 15 to 25 in the central and western parts, otherwise variable 05, but SW 10 to 20 in the south east at first, and in the west Thursday evening. VIS : Good but moderate in showers and rain in the west and central Parts spreading eastwards. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 3.5m, SW swell but NE swell in the extreme north west. DURBAN EAST: WIND : E to SE 20 to 30 but NE 15 to 25 in the west. VIS : Moderate in showers and rain in the west. SEA STATE: 3.0 to 4.0m in the west, E to SE swell but SW swell in the east. MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL: WIND : S to SE 20 to 30, but cyclonic 35 to 45 in the north west, moderating Thursday evening. VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and rain in the north, otherwise good. SEA STATE: 3.0m to 4.0 reaching 5.0m to 5.5m in the in the north, Page 3 of 5
cyclonic swell. MADAGASCAR EAST: WIND : E to SE 05 to 15. VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and rain in places in the north. MARION FORTIES EAST (40s/50s, 35e/50e): WIND : W to SW 15 to 25, becoming NW 15 to 25 in the west spreading to the central parts. VIS : Moderate to poor in showers and rain in the east, clearing from the west. SEA STATE: 3.5 to 4.5m, SW swell. AREA 2: ======== MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) FQIO20 FMEE 240449 MARINE METEOROLOGICAL BULLETIN FROM METEO-FRANCE/LA REUNION ON AREA ACK (AMSTERDAM-CROZET-KERGUELEN) DATE: 19/04/24 AT 0500UTC AVERAGED WIND SPEED ON BEAUFORT SCALE. (WIND GUSTS MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGES GIVEN HERE.). PART 1: WARNING : - GALE FORCE 8 OVER AMS AND CRO. - STRONG GALE FORCE 9 OVER KER. PART 2: GENERAL SYNOPSYS, 19/04/24 AT 0000 UTC : - HIGH 1031 HPA NEAR 39S/34E MOVING EASTWARD SLOWLY. - DEEPENING LOW 985 HPA NEAR 46S/68E MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD WITH COLD FRONT CF ASSOCIATED AND AXIS 32S/63E, 35S/69E, 45S/71E, 49S/67E. PART 3: FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FROM 24/04/19 AT 0600 UTC TO 25/04/19 AT 0600UTC : WAM (30S/40S,50E/65E) :SHOWERS. WIND : SOUTH-WESTERLY 5 TO 7 DECREASING SOUTH 3 TO 5 OVER NORTHERN. SEA : ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH. MODERATE TO HEAVY SW SWELL. VISI : POOR UNDER PRECIPITATIONS. AMS (30S/40S,65E/80E) :SCATTERED SHOWERS BUT FRONTAL RAINS AND SHOWERS OVER EASTERN.WIND:- NORTH 35S : NORTH-WESTERLY 4 TO 6 OVER FAR EASTERN AT FIRST, THEN SW 4/5. - SOUTH 35S : WESTERLY 6 TO 8 DECREASING GRADUALLY AT NIGHT WESTERLY 4/5. SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH BECOMING HIGH OVER FAR SOUTHERN. MODERATE TO HEAVY SOUTH-WESTERLY SWELL. VISI: VERY POOR UNDER PRECIPITATIONS. Page 4 of 5
CRO (40S/50S,50E/65E) :SCATTERED SHOWERS.WIND: SW 5 TO 7 LOCALLY 8 OVER NORTH-EASTERN AT FIRST, DECREASING W 5/6 AT NIGHT. SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH LOCALLY HIGH OVER NORTH-EASTERN AREA AT FIRST. MODERATE TO HEAVY SW SWELL DECREASING GRADUALLY AT NIGHT. VISI: POOR UNDER PRECIPITATIONS. KER (40S/50S,65E/80E) :FRONTAL RAINS AND SHOWERS WITH SQUALLS.WIND: CLOCKWISE 7 TO 9 WITH GUSTS OVER NORTHERN, CLOCKWISE 4 TO 6 OVER SOUTHERN, DECREASING GRADUALLY AT NIGHT, BY WESTERN AREA, WESTERLY 4/5. SEA: ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH LOCALLY HIGH OVER NORTHERN AREA. MODERATE TO HEAVY WESTERLY SWELL.VISI: VERY POOR UNDER PRECIPITATIONS. Page 5 of 5