Will it offer a worthwhile return on investment for operators seeking growth in new markets? GO OR NO GO?
Introduction Big picture of french online gaming market Main issues on french online gaming market liberalization Gaming market in France after the new regulation : partial liberalization only Legal framework Taxation : are french authorities mad? Analysis of consumer surplus Competitive issues for new entrants : partnership is the key! Conclusion : the good place to be!
Online gambling has proved to be a global phenomenon. Europe seems to be the most quickly growing online gambling market. In 2009 European online gambling businesses operators accounted for almost 44.9% of the total online gross gaming yield. The second largest world market in the igaming industry is North America followed by Asia and Middle East. Because of US legislation that prohibits online gambling on most of its territory, North America is currently experiencing a negative growth. The French Online betting sector is a lucrative one, worth 703 million last year, with an expectation to rise to around 800m in 2010, and a forecast of 1.4bn the year after.
International projected turnovers for online sports betting : 15-20 billion dollars European projected turnovers for online sports betting : 10 billion euros English online sports betting market: Established in September 2007 800 000 sports gamblers 3,5 billion euros of turnover Italian online sports betting market: Established in January 2007 700 000 sports gamblers 1 billion euros of turnover The Spanish online sports betting market: Opened, partially, beginning 2007 200 000 users with an annual growth of 30% Turnover: 1,3 billion euros Out of the 226 countries in the world, only 30 have liberalised online sports betting For instance, China, Russia, Norway, Germany, refuse to open their markets But at least 12 European countries are liberalising or will liberalise online sports betting in the next 2 to 3 years (Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, Sweden )
SIZE OF THE MARKET : compulsive market? TAXATION : the top level in Europe PARTIAL LIBERALISATION : only sports betting, horse bets and poker COMPETITION ISSUES : traditional operator advantages (Francaise des Jeux, PMU) LEGAL ISSUES : obligation for sports betting operators and sports right holders to reach a commercial agreement Multiple stakes are at play: economic, technological, social, fiscal, legal, medical A sector that interests a growing number of participants: SSII, major foreign games operators, media groups, professional clubs and leagues
Sporting bets represent only 4% of the Française Des Jeux wagers, even if outlawed wagers are much more significant (300 millions euros according to Sportel). In addition some kinds of sporting bets will remain outcast (such as spread betting) Wagers made on PMU (horse bettings) website remain at a low level, even if pmu.fr is the first legal bets website in France. To date, horse race bets are marginal. Poker generates the highest rate of activity, with wagers estimated between 400 and 500 millions euros on abroad platforms
The average family budget dedicated to gambling in France is in the lower section of European averages and largely inferior to the average sums allocated in Spain or Sweden, or even in the UK.
in million euros Estimated wagers (France -2009) 38,9 billions No loto, no casino games, no scratch games billions Only pmu.fr + fdj.fr + outlawed 1,7 billions Wagers transfer to gamers Outlawed games Total wagers Of which considered area wagers Of which online wagers Of which Tax Base
Projected turnovers in the French online sports betting market 2010 : 800 million euros 2011 : 1,4 billion euros 2012 : 1,8 billion euros Who will use online sports betting in France? Market potential for those using online sports betting: Number of players of money-based games in France: 31 million Number of people with Internet subscriptions: 27 million Potential number of sports gamblers in France: 30 to 35% of online game users Sports gamblers on illegal sites: 900,000 Typological information about online sports gamblers: 65% of sports gamblers are between 18 and 45 years old, 35% are more than 45 years old Breakdown of the sports betting market in terms of users: The market will consist of: A large group of sports gamblers currently playing on illegal sites: excluding those who are not satisfied with what the French market offers them (limited forms of betting and return rates for users...) A particularly large number of new users (18 to 45 years old): who will add to this market, which is the most significant market alongside online poker A group of online horse racing gamblers (30 to 35%)
The online horse race betting market before the market opens up in 2010 The physical horse race betting market in France is the largest in Europe and the second largest in the world Only pari-mutuel systems are allowed The PMU monopoly: 6.5 million clients and a 9.2 billion euro turnover in 2008 for physical horse race betting 8% of horse race bets going back into equestrian activities Online horse race betting as it currently stands: The PMU online horse race betting monopoly: 548 million euros The current number of online users of the PMU site is 220,000 Online horse race betting in France after the market opens up in 2010 Monopoly ends, market opens to online horse race operators 8% of online horse race bets to go back into equestrian activities Particularly slow transfer of 6.5 million physical horse race betting users to online horse race betting(the majority are not part of the Internet generation) Horse racing betting and sports betting are intimately linked markets, PMU and Zeturf move into the sportsbetting market Emergence of a significant number of new horse race gamblers, young people (new supply) Potential turnover for online horse race betting in France: Initially: around 800 million euros In the long term: a large portion of the 9.2 billion euros currently spent on physical horse race bets.
Lottery and Scratch Games Sporting Bets Horse Bets Casino Games Physical Network Monopoly (Loto Foot, Côte et Match) Monopoly (Pari mutuel only) Casinos (Group/Tab le Games) Casinos (Slot Machines, Blackjack, Roulette) Monopoly (Loto Foot, Euromillions, Keno, Morpion, etc.) Internet Network Poker Field open to competition from new operators
Opening the market to: Horse betting, in a pari-mutuel format Mutualised sports betting, or fixed bets, live betting possible Online table/group games (poker) The monopoly is maintained in the field of loto and scratch cards, and online casinos remain banned. The relationship between the State and the historic gambling organisms is also maintained. A system of authorisation: delivered by a new independent administrative authority : ARJEL. The authorisations are not recognized across EU borders. The specifics of games and betting are controlled: Odds-betting: the loss cannot be superior to the bet amount. The average Player Return Rate is defined by decree (roughly 85%), which contributes to the fight against addiction and money laundering No spread betting nor betting exchange Contribution-matching mechanisms are possible, but integrated into Player Return Rate.
Protecting vulnerable populations : Game moderators and player account limits Accredited operators must participate in discouraging under-age players A public information and help service will be implemented Each operator must inform ARJEL of the resources dedicated to fighting addiction ARJEL as protector of legality Rules relative to the acceptance and refusal of accreditations The technical characteristics of game platforms and software are defined Powers of control and inquiry Disciplinary commission: administrative and financial sanctions Internal guarantees : preventing conflicts of interest The recognition of new commercialisation rights regarding the specificities of sporting events Contracts signed between betting organisers and operators Revenue-generation and co-responsibility
Simplification and harmonisation : the same tax rate (5,7 % + 1,8 % = 7,5%) for bets (horse and sporting, real and online) Tax rates for online poker (1,8% and 0,2%= 2%) Operators will be liable to pay a duty for licence applications and a levy based on bets placed by players They will also have to participate in the financing of the equine and sporting industries Fiscal representation in France is compulsory
Price Consumer Surplus Maximum Willingness to Pay for Q o P o What is paid D Q o Quantity
Price Consumer Surplus S P o Producer Surplus D Q o Quantity
S Tax Price Tax S New Consumer Surplus P D Lost Consumer Surplus Deadweight Loss Tax Revenues P o Lost Producer Surplus New Producer Surplus P S D Q L Q o Quantity
The deadweight loss of the tax will depend upon two factors: The size of the tax The reduction in the quantity sold The reduction in the quantity sold will depend upon the elasticity of demand and supply The more elastic demand or supply is the larger the deadweight loss will be If either demand or supply is price inelastic then the deadweight loss will small and could be zero if perfectly inelastic (no change in the quantity sold and consumed)
Traditional betting operators have advantages that allow them to remain at the heart of new market sectors, at least in the middle term. The fact that the market has been opened to competition, without affecting real-world gambling services, shouldn t cause damage to the FDJ and FMU in their core businesses. Traditional operators also have the advantage of having already published their entire real-world offer in an online context over the past few years (5% of total bets for the FDJ and the PMU are made in this context). The FDJ and the PMU are already in control of the online offer quality chain Recent market openings have shown that traditional operators benefit from the first movers advantages (EDF + France Telecom) These two main organisms possess the economic resources necessary to the development of their online offer on a broader scale within the scope of the law.
Vertical chain of money gaming activity: heterogeneity of players and,a need of partnership Upstream Markets Bets authorized, information, The Sporting or Horse events organization Market Authorized betters, information, Gaming Markets «Real World» Network Market Gaming offer Online Gaming Market Online Gaming websites Downstream Markets Internet Service provider and services Market Gaming offer availability Software companies Consumer / Player
Competition possible breach cartography Upstream Markets Sportive or Horse events organization Market Events forclusion Discriminatory access to the event or to the information Gaming Markets Physical Network Market Crossed use of customer database Pure joint offer of physical and online gaming Mixed joint offer of physical and online gaming Online Gaming Market Discriminatory access to the user Loyalty discounts Limited impact of the Player Return Ratio Downstream Markets Software companies Internet Service provider and services Market Consumer / Player
French market is only on the first step of its liberalisation Traditionnal operators benefits from a strong advantage Fiscality could be dropped in 16 months (as Italy did it before) New operators need to be advised to be competitive and efficient on the french market (targets to identify, partnerships, marketing surveys...)
Maxime Legrand Gambling Economics maxime.legrand@gamblingeconomics.net www.gamblingeconomics.net