Climate Change Risk and the Ski Industry: An Overview of North American Markets Frozen Luleå 2016 Luleå, May 2016 Daniel Sco@ Research Chair in Global Change and Tourism Direct of the Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change
Outline Evolving Ski Industry QuesGons about Climate Change Risks Climate Change Risk of North American Ski Markets o SkiSim ski opera;ons model o Climate change analogue seasons o A coupled ski opera;ons- skier demand model The Future of the Winter Olympics in a Warmer World
Evolving QuesGons on Ski Industry Climate Change Risk Ski Industry QuesGons in 2000 1. Combat misinforma;on in the media 2. Science- based risk assessment with adap;ve capacity of snowmaking 3. Rela;ve climate change risk of compe;tors 4. How will skiers adapt to changing snow condi;ons Other Stakeholders are Now Asking QuesGons Investors/Banks, Communi;es/Governments, Ski Organiza;ons and Companies, Sports Associa;ons Environmental Groups, Real- Estate Associa;ons
Headlines Ma@er!: Climate Change is Influencing Investment Decisions Figure 2: Simulated Change in Housing Values by 2050 Expected decrease in the value of vacagon properges near ski resorts under +2 C Note: Based on IPCC ensemble average of general circulation models, high A2 emissions Source: scenario. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 2009
Climate Change Scenarios (2050s) (CMIP-5 ensemble, RCP 2.6 and 8.5, downscaled with LARS-WG) Climate Change Analogues & Integrated Model CSC Future Ski Market Scenarios (2040s) (Trend, Intervention Mid-Point) Climate Station/ Gridded Data (daily T&P 1981-2010) Ski Area Characteristics (snowmaking & lift capacity) Ministry of Tourism & Environment (daily ski conditions, water use, visitation patterns) Ski Resorts Data (season segments, resort size, visits) Snow Model SkiSim 2.0 Snowmaking Module differential snowmaking capacity and new emergency snowmaking decision rules Opera;ons Outputs: Season length Open/closed dates Probability of being open during key holiday weeks Snowmaking requirements Agent-Based Model Ski Areas Open Number of Skiers in Simulation (initial spatial distribution) Substitution Behaviour Rules Spatial: Redistribution to open ski areas Visita;on Outputs: System wide skier visits Ski area market share Temporal: Unmet demand pool Activity: Agent leaves simulation (unmet demand) Transferred demand Days with crowding Skier Survey (n=2448 at 10 resorts) Unmet demand
North American Regional Ski Markets Pacific West & Rocky Mountains 44.3 million skier visits/year snowmaking coverage ~15% Midwest & Great Lakes 10.1 million skier visits/year snowmaking coverage >85% New England & Quebec 24.1 million skier visits/year snowmaking coverage >80%
California Snow Drought Lake Tahoe 2014-15 snowfall = 126 (3.2m) (least on record) Average snowfall as of May 1st = 396 (10.1m)
USA Regional Market Inter- comparison: Trends in Average Season Length and Variability 160" Season'Length'(days)' 140" 120" 100" 80" 60" 40" 20" 1983@89" 1990s" 2000s" 2010@14" 0" Northeast" Southeast" Midwest" Rocky"Mtn" Pacific" West" Average season length increased in 1990s & 2000s, but began to decline in 2010s Variability followed similar paeern, decreasing in 2000s, but increasing in 2010s Have we surpassed a climate ;pping point in the ski industry?
Great Lakes- Quebec- New England Market Risk Inter- comparison Standardized Applica;on of SkiSim 2.0 with Advanced Snowmaking Capacity Under RCP 8.5 Scenario for the 2050s Average Ski Season Length Snowmaking Requirements - 22% - 20% - 15% +143% +331% +161% Number of Ski Areas: New England = 99, Ontario = 37, Quebec = 39
Changes in Snowmaking Requirements at Individual Ski Areas in Ontario
USA Regional Market Inter- comparison: RelaGve Change in Season Length Standardized Applica;on of SkiSim 2.0 at 350 Ski Areas with Advanced Snowmaking Capacity Using 4km 2 resolu;on RCMs (9) with a RCP 8.5 Scenario for 2011-2050 Will global warming kill off skiing in North America? - Telegraph, May 2015 FGOALS RCM (warmest scenario) Is Colorado s Ski Industry Doomed Due to Global Warming? - Associated Press 2008 Ski industry becomes potengally unviable by 2050s - Zimmerman et al. 2006
Record Warm Winters: What Can They Tell Us About Climate Change Risk? Dec- April was +3.6 C warmer than clima;c normal, with a decrease in natural snowfall of 20% Ontario Ski Areas (2011-12 Season) average ski season shortened 16 days (- 17%) small resorts (- 24%) vs large size resorts (- 15%) number of open ski slopes (skiable terrain) was reduced (average of only 69% were open) number of operagng libs was substan;ally reduced (for 1/3 of the season, less than 50% were open) early season snowmaking increased over 300%, late season ended early because uneconomic / not possible 24% decrease in the number efficient snowmaking days Degraded quality of snow condigons, incidence of crowding increased skier visits decreased - 10% small ski areas (- 20%) vs large resorts (- 8%)
Slopes OperaGng at All Ontario Ski Areas Libs OperaGng at All Ontario Ski Areas
Changes in Reported Snow CondiGons: Reduced Snow Quality - 46% - 36%
Integrated Ski OperaGons and Skier Demand Model (Ontario Market) Modeled Climate Variability with 3 Types of Winters: climagcally normal winter (2010-11) - for 1981-2010 baseline record warm winter (2011-12) a climate change analogue for normal with in 2050s (under higher emission scenario) cool/cold winter (2013-14) - coldest in ~20 years Season Type System- Wide Skier Visits (Observed vs Agent- Based Model Simula;on) OSRA Reported (million) ABM- Simulated (million) % Difference Normal (2010-11) 3.362 3.148-6.3% Warm (2011-12) 3.028 2.950-2.6% Cold (2013-14) 3.067 3.080 +0.4%
Agent- Based Model Results: System- Wide Skier Visits in Ontario (millions) Market Development Scenario (2040s) 2050s Climate Scenario (RCP8.5) With Current Snowmaking Capacity Normal Warm Cool Simulated Baseline (2010s) 3.148 million 2.950 million 3.080 million Trend (- 3% market decline) 2.804 (- 11%) 0.664 (- 77%) 2.813 (- 9%) Mid- Point (+59% market growth) 4.598 (+46%) 1.088 (- 63%) 4.613 (+49%) IntervenGon (+146% market growth) 7.108 (+125%) 1.684 (- 43%) 7.131 (+131%)
Conclusions Under a Warmer Climate Change Scenario (RCP 8.5) The North American ski industry is not doomed by climate change More snowmaking capacity at smaller resorts did not improve system- wide visita;on Resorts with advanced snowmaking can cope with normal & cool winters Future warm winters exceed the limits of snowmaking adapta;on and major impact on skier visita;on ( fat tail of climate change = yard sale for skiing) Ski demand is fairly resilient under marginal condi;ons Des;na;on subs;tu;on causes significant crowding and conges;on Infrastructure investment is needed at go to resorts to take advantage of transferred ski demand and peak demand periods to off- set poor years and maintain visitor experience Market development is a key adapta;on strategy
The Future of the Winter Olympics in a Warmer World Risk Assessment Criteria Snow reliability and can sufficient snow be made and maintained? [>90% probability of snow depth 30 cm with advanced snowmaking] Are thermal condi;ons suitable for elite winter sport (i.e., safe and fair snow condi;ons, abnormal air temperatures for compe;;on)? [>90% probability of minimum daily temperatures of 0 C]
Climate AdaptaGon at the Winter Olympics
Climate Suitability of Winter Olympics LocaGons for Future Games
For more informagon: Daniel Scoe Research Chair in Global Change and Tourism & Execu;ve Director of the Interdisciplinary Centre on Climate Change daniel.scoe@uwaterloo.ca THANK YOU!