Introduction Longshot Angles For Monster Trifecta Players To develop the longshot angles in this report, we took the 90,000 race sample used in developing the Monster Trifecta System and extracted three months worth of data. From there, we found only horses who won races at 15-1 or higher and reviewed their past performances to see if there were any consistencies or patterns. During the process, there were four angles that continually popped-up over and over again, often at REALLY big odds. This report contains those four angles. Let's dive in... Longshot Angle #1 - Dirt-To-Turf Last race on dirt, today's race on turf If the horse has prior turf form even better! This is a fairly popular angle used by horseplayers everyday, yet surprisingly, a lot of dirt-to-turf horses pop everyday at big prices. There are many reasons why a switch from dirt-to-turf can produce sharply improved performances. For some, the surface is softer and easier on the horse. For others it's simply a preference the horse has. Regardless of the why, the surface switch often triggers a much improved performance over prior dirt form.
The key with this angle, and all of the angles discussed in this report, is that the public always bets the horse based on prior form and not how the horse might perform today. I'am Toorific showed three turf starts at Ellis Park in 2010 her three best races by far in her brief career and was set to return to the turf at Churchill Downs in her fourth start of the following year. The return to turf was clearly what she needed as she broke-through with a 2-1/2 lengths score at 23-1. Happy Party put in a wide bid at Mountaineer in May and was the moved to the turf (and up in class) a few weeks later. The result? A game victory at a ridiculous 40-1 as the public discounted her ability to improve on turf. Longshot Angle #2 Improving Figures
Two or more rising figures indicating improving form Beyer Speed Figures and other numerical means of measuring horse ability and performance are used all the time by astute horseplayers. The challenge, however, is interpreting them to forecast what might happen today. A horse who has run three consecutive figures in the mid-90's is very likely to do so again, or regress depending on how vigorous its recent schedule. On the flip side, a horse who ran a 70 two starts back and then improved to an 85 last time out are often excellent bets to make another forward progression. This angle works with figures on both dirt and turf because we're using the figures as a measure of form not raw speed and ability. In June 2011, Doc Can Dance showed sharp improvement in figures when he returned to Hollywood Park signaling a horse who had rapidly improving form. When flipped to the turf (the surface of his most recent win), he responded with a win at nearly 28-1. In the study there were dozens of examples of horses with improving figures getting the job done at big odds. The real lesson in this angle? Do not discount any improvement in speed figures... no matter how small or subtle it may seem!
Longshot Angle #3 The Bounce Back Often times a horse fires fresh off the layoff but then regresses in its second start back. But in the third start off, they can bounce back and not only return to their speed figure from two races ago, but often sail past it. This angle is harder to find, and is sometimes difficult to bet, but when building Trifecta tickets do your best to include such horses. Redhotrush ran a huge effort off the freshening at Evangeline in April with a massive six length socre and a career best 61 speed figure. When moved-up in class, and likely because of how hard he ran first out, he regressed sharply. But have no fear Redhotrush fans, because he bounced back third off the layoff at big odds! (Note: It's not shown, but he improved again next time out and won at 11-1). Longshot Angle #4 Second-Time Starters When making its second career start, any horse who showed signs or hints of ability in its debut is worth extra consideration. If the horse did not show much ability first time out, look to see if the trainer is known for firing well with horses second time.
Just like with anything in life, the more you practice, the better you get. The same applies to horses and racing. The experience gained from one trip around the racetrack can never be underestimated. This is why when a horse wins first time out, especially in high-class maiden races, they often turn-out to be useful runners. When reviewing horses first career start, favor those who hinted at some ability. Flashes of speed, middle moves, wide trips with okay finishes etc., are all such examples. Bran's debut in May at Fort Erie was solid. He contested the pace and managed to hit the board. In his second start, with lasix added, he scored by 2-1/2 lengths at 16-1. Brushed By Love's debut, where she was bet down to 4-1, was okay enough to have faith in her ability to improve. The key variable was the first call where she was within five lengths of the lead. While improvement could be expected, a straight-up win was a bonus at 34-1. Conclusions When one or more of the angles above are combined, it's time to load-up! Although rare, horses who fit more than one key longshot angle in this report (or angles you follow yourself), are usually too juicy to ignore. In June 2011, Ashburton Grove showed improving Beyer figures and went
dirt-to-turf to clear his condition at an amazing 31-1... and with the class drop to boot!