3.4 Stock summaries 3.4. Northeast Arctic cod State of the stock Spawning biomass in relation to precautionary limits Full reproductive capacity Fishing mortality in relation to precautionary limits/management plan Increased risk Fishing mortality in relation to highest yield Overexploit ed Fishing mortality in relation to agreed target Above target Comment Lack of enforcement of the management plan has resulted in exploitation above the level intended by the management plan. Based on the most recent estimates of SSB and fishing mortality, ICES classifies the stock as having full reproductive capacity and at risk of being harvested unsustainably. The SSB has been above Bpa since 22. Fishing mortality was reduced significantly over the years 999 23 but has since then increased to a level below F lim in 24 26. Surveys indicate that recent year classes are below average. Management objectives A management plan has existed for this stock since 24 (Annex 3.4.) with the objectives of maintaining high longterm yield, year-to-year stability, and full utilization of all available information on stock dynamics. The plan aims to maintain target F at F pa =.4 and minimize between-year TAC change to +/- %, unless SSB falls below B pa in which case the management targets should change. In 26, ICES has evaluated these decision rules for cod and a management plan based upon them is in accordance with the precautionary approach when the SSB is above Blim and a low level of implementation error is assumed. Further evaluations made in 27 concluded that the risk for SSB to drop below B lim is low within a plausible range of conditions. Therefore, ICES considers the management plan to be in accordance with the precautionary approach. If conditions change to outside the assumed range (with respect to biological conditions, assessment quality, or implementation error), the management plan may have to be revised. In particular, overfishing of the TACs derived from the management plan at levels that have been observed in the recent past is likely to lead to that situation. Reference points Type Value Technical basis Blim 22 t change point regression Precautionary Approach Bpa 46 t the lowest SSB estimate having >9% probability of remaining above Blim F lim.74 F corresponding to an equilibrium stock = Blim F pa.4 the highest F estimate having >9% probability of remaining below F lim Target F pa.4 (unchanged since: 23) Yield and spawning biomass per Recruit F-reference points: Fish Mort Yield/R SSB/R Ages 5- Average last 3 years.69.6.6 Fmax.28.29 3.96 F..5.9 7.54 Fmed.94.9.65 6 ICES Advice 27, Book 3
Single-stock exploitation boundaries Exploitation boundaries in relation to existing management plans The agreed management plan implies catches of 49 t in 28. This catch projection includes all catches and therefore the TAC must account for all unreported catches. Exploitation boundaries in relation to high long-term yield, low risk of depletion of production potential, and considering ecosystem effects The current fishing mortality is estimated to be at.69 and is above the level that would lead to high long-term yields (indicated to be in the F range of.25.5). Catches corresponding to high long-term yield for 28 are in the order of 22 43 t. Exploitation boundaries in relation to precautionary limits The agreed management plan has been found to be consistent with the precautionary approach and is therefore the basis for the advice. If conditions change to outside the assumed range (with respect to biological conditions, assessment quality, or implementation error), the management plan may have to be revised. In particular, overfishing of the TACs derived from the management plan at levels that have been observed in the recent past is likely to lead to that situation. Short-term implications Outlook for 28: For the forecast the F in 27 is set equal to the recent 3-year average. Basis: F(27) = F 24-26 =.69; SSB(28) =53; catch (27) = 53. Rationale TAC (28) Basis F (28) SSB (29) %SSB change ) % TAC change 2) Zero catch F= 956 +8% -% Status quo 52 F 24-26.69 52-2% +22% High long-term yield 22-43 Simulations (F=.25.5) Agreed management 49 TAC(man. Plan).5 68 +5% -4% Plan Precautionary Limits 334 F pa.4 669 +26% -2% Weights in t. Shaded scenarios are not considered consistent with the precautionary approach. ) SSB 29 relative to SSB 28. 2) TAC 28 relative to TAC 27. Management considerations Concerns about under-reporting of catches in recent years continue. Two sets of estimates of non-reported landings (IUU) for the period 22 26 were available, ranging from 9 66 t and 22 4 t in recent years. ICES concluded that the description of the methodology used to estimate IUU catches in one of the series was insufficient to form the basis for scientific advice. Therefore the series with 9 66 unallocated catches was taken forward in the calculations. This was the same method as used last year. The estimates of unreported catches for 26 amount to around 25% of the official catches. Unreported landings will reduce the effect of management measures and will undermine the intended objectives of the harvest control rule. Therefore it is important that management agencies ensure that all catches are counted against the TAC. Management plan evaluations The recent high amount of unreported catch has been considered in an additional evaluation of the existing HCR. Under these conditions, it is doubtful whether the HCR can protect the stock and future fisheries. Actions are needed to stop the unreported fishing. Factors affecting the fisheries and the stock ICES Advice 27, Book 3 7
Regulations and their effects TAC regulations are in place but there is non-compliance, resulting in a significant amount of unreported catches. The estimation of unreported catches must be resolved and the most accurate estimates made available to ICES. The main mechanism used for avoiding quota control seems to be trans-shipping of fish from the Barents Sea. Discarding of cod, haddock, and saithe is thought to be significant in some periods although discarding is illegal in Norway and Russia. Data on discarding are scarce, but attempts to obtain better quantification continue. The fisheries are controlled by inspections of the trawler fleet at sea, i.e. by a requirement to report to catch control points when entering and leaving the EEZs, VMS satellite tracking for some fleets, and by inspections of all fishing vessels when landing the fish. Keeping a detailed fishing logbook on-board is mandatory for most vessels, and large parts of the fleet report to the authorities on a daily basis. In addition to quotas, the fisheries are regulated by mesh size limitations, a minimum catching size, a maximum bycatch of undersized fish, maximum bycatch of non-target species, closure of areas with high densities of juveniles, and other seasonal and area restrictions. The effects of these regulations have not been evaluated. Changes in fishing technology and fishing patterns Since January 997, sorting grids have been mandatory for the trawl fisheries in most of the Barents Sea and Svalbard area. The environment The Northeast Arctic cod is characterized by significant year-to-year variations in the growth rate. In some years the mean weight of fish at the same age may differ by a factor of 2 or 3. Among the factors influencing cod growth are water temperature, food supply, and cod population abundance. Northeast Arctic cod is an important predator on other species in the ecosystem, notably capelin. The management of Arctic cod will therefore have implications on the dynamics of these stocks. Changes in growth, maturity, and cannibalism are linked to the abundance of capelin. This linkage appears to be less pronounced in the recent period compared to the 98s and 99s. In recent years, maturation, growth, and cannibalism have been fairly stable in spite of the variation in capelin stock. Scientific basis Data and methods Analytical assessment is based on catch-at-age data, using one commercial cpue series and three survey series. The total effect of the discarding is still unclear and requires more work before it can be included in the assessments. Estimates of cannibalism are included in the natural mortality. Two series of catch were made available to ICES, based on two series of IUU. The methods used to determine one of the series were unclear and thus the series was not used by ICES. Uncertainties in assessment and forecast Uncertainties in the total catch are large. All survey series used had incomplete spatial coverage in the last year. Adjustments to the survey time-series were made to account for this. However, this increases the uncertainty in the assessment. Obstacles preventing complete spatial coverage should be removed by allowing research vessels unlimited access to the entire Barents Sea. Environmental conditions The population dynamic parameters vary with the environment as described above. Recent changes in the environment have been taken into account by using the recent three-year average for maturation and cannibalism (since 984), and by prediction of weight-at-age. Comparison with previous assessment and advice The current assessment estimates the SSB 3% higher for 25 and mean F in 25 is. lower (figure 3.4..3). Advice is based on the management plan whereas last year it was based on precautionary limits. Source of information 8 ICES Advice 27, Book 3
ICES. 27. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group, 8 27 April 27. ICES CM 27/ACFM:6. Year ICES Advice Singlestock exploitation boundaries Predicted catch corresp. to advice Predicted catch corresp. to single-stock exploitation boundaries Agreed TAC Official landings ACFM landings Unreported landings (included in ACFM landings) 987 Gradual reduction 595 56 552 523 in F 988 F =.5; TAC 53 59 459 435 (Advice November 87) (Revised advice May 88) (32 36) 45 989 Large reduction in 335 3 348 332 F 99 F at F low ; TAC 72 6 2 22 25 99 F at F low ; TAC 25 25 294 39 5 992 Within safe 25 356 42 53 3 biological limits 993 Healthy stock 256 5 575 582 5 994 No long-term 649 7 795 77 25 gains in increased F 995 No long-term 68 7 763 74 gains in increased F 996 No long-term gains in increased F 746 7 759 732 997 Well below F med < 993 85 792 762 998 F less than F med 54 654 65 593 999 Reduce F to 36 48 56 485 below F pa 2 Increase B above 39 45 Bpa in 2 2 High prob. of SSB> Bpa in 23 263 395 426 22 Reduce F to well 8 395 535 9 below.25 23 Reduce F to 35 395 552 5 below F pa 24 Reduce F to 398 486 66 7 below F pa 25 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches Apply catch rule 485 485 64 66 26 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches 27 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches 28 Take into account coastal cod and redfish bycatches Apply amended catch rule 47 47 596 27 F pa 39 424 Apply catch rule 49 Weights in tonnes Unreported landings 22 26 corrected according to table 3.4.. ICES Advice 27, Book 3 9
North-East Arctic cod (Subareas I and II) Landings Landings in t 6 4 2 8 6 4 2 946 956 966 976 986 996 26 Fishing Mortality F(ages 5-).2..8.6.4.2. 946 956 966 976 986 996 26 F Flim Fpa Recruitment (age 3) 2 Recruitment in billions.5.5 946 956 966 976 986 996 26 Spawning Stock Biomass SSB in t 4 2 8 6 4 2 946 956 966 976 986 996 26 SSB Blim Bpa Figure 3.4.. 2 North-East Arctic cod (Subareas I and II). Landings, Fishing Mortality, Recruitment and SSB. ICES Advice 27, Book 3
Stock - Recruitment Recruitment (age 3) in billions 2.8.6.4.2.8.6.4.2 2 4 6 8 2 4 SSB in t SSB-Rec. Blim Bpa Yield and Spawning Stock Biomass per Recruit Yield (dashed line).4.2.8.6.4.2 25 2 5 5.2.4.6.8.2.4.6 Fishing Mortality (ages 5-) SSB (line) SSB in t 4 2 8 6 4 2 Precautionary Approach Plot Period 946-26..2.4.6.8..2 Fishing Mortality (ages 5-) F-SSB 26 Flim Fpa Blim Bpa Figure 3.4..2 North-East Arctic cod (Subareas I and II). Stock and Recruitment, Yield and Precautionary Approach. ICES Advice 27, Book 3 2
North-East Arctic cod (Sub-areas I and II) SSB (' tonnes).2 Fishing mortality: 5- Recruitment. Age: 3 (millions) 9.9 8..8 7.8.7 6.6 5.6.5 4.4 3.4.3 2.2.2. 99 995 2 25. 99 995 2 25 99 995 2 25 Figure 3.4..3 Northeast Arctic cod (Subareas I and II). Historical performance of the assessments. 22 ICES Advice 27, Book 3
Table 3.4.. Northeast Arctic COD. Total catch (t) by fishing areas and unreported catch. (Data provided by Working Group members.) Year Subarea I Division IIa Division IIb Unreported catches Total catch 96 49 694 53 9 22 58 783 22 962 548 62 39 848 22 797 99 266 963 547 469 7 768 776 337 964 26 883 4 698 26 4 437 695 965 24 489 3 43 444 983 966 292 253 34 85 56 653 483 7 967 322 798 28 747 2 6 572 65 968 642 452 62 472 269 254 74 84 969 679 373 255 599 262 254 97 226 97 63 855 243 835 85 556 933 246 97 32 55 39 623 56 92 689 48 972 97 5 335 257 32 982 565 254 973 492 76 2 762 88 27 792 685 974 723 489 24 24 254 73 2 433 975 56 7 2 276 47 4 829 377 976 526 685 237 245 3 533 867 463 977 538 23 257 73 9 997 95 3 978 48 265 263 57 7 293 698 75 979 95 66 235 449 9 923 44 538 98 68 67 99 33 2 45 38 434 98 37 33 245 67 6 837 399 37 982 96 576 236 25 3 29 363 73 983 64 83 2 279 24 9 289 992 984 54 37 97 573 25 76 277 65 985 2 65 73 559 2 756 37 92 986 57 63 22 688 69 794 43 3 987 46 6 245 387 3 578 523 7 988 66 649 29 93 58 36 434 939 989 64 52 49 36 8 69 332 48 99 62 272 99 465 25 263 25 22 99 7 97 56 966 4 222 5 39 58 992 24 29 72 532 86 483 3 53 234 993 95 77 269 383 66 457 5 58 6 994 353 425 36 47 86 244 25 77 86 995 25 448 37 585 7 966 739 999 996 278 364 297 237 56 627 732 228 997 273 376 326 689 62 338 762 43 998 25 85 257 398 84 4 592 624 999 59 2 26 898 8 99 484 9 2 37 97 24 67 73 56 44 87 2 42 628 85 89 97 953 426 47 22 84 789 89 3 7 242 9 53545 23 63 9 222 52 5 829 5 5599 24 77 888 29 26 92 296 7 66445 25 59 573 94 644 2 59 66 64276 26 59 85 24 63 4 743 27 59697 Provisional figures. ICES Advice 27, Book 3 23
Table 3.4..2 North-East Arctic COD. Nominal catch (t) by countries (Sub-area I and Divisions IIa and IIb combined, data provided by Working Group members.) Year Faroe Islands France German Dem.Rep. Fed.Rep. Norway Poland United Germany Kingdom Russia 2 Others Total all countries 2 3 96 3 934 3 755 3 92 8 29 268 377-58 3 325 78 22 783 22 962 3 9 2 482 532 6 53 225 65-75 2 476 76 245 99 266 963-8 38 29 4 223 25 56 8 29 779 47 964-775 577 964-8 634 297 3 22 49 878-94 549 8 55 585 437 695 965-526 9 3 67 97 85-89 962 52 78 86 444 93 966-2 967 228 4 284 23 792-3 2 69 3 2 483 74 967-664 45 3 632 28 9-87 8 262 34 6 572 65 968 - - 225 73 255 6-4 387 676 758-74 84 969 29 374-5 97 5 543 35 24 7 856 23 66 62 25 33 97 226 97 26 265 44 245 2 43 9 45 377 66 5 53 8 48 276 632-933 246 97 5 877 34 772 4 998 9 726 47 44 52 8 2 44 82 25 689 48 972 393 8 95 3 3 45 394 8 892 58 382 96 653 66 565 287 973 96 7 28 4 684 6 75 285 84 843 78 88 387 96 276 792 686 974 5 77 46 28 4 86 78 57 287 276 9 898 9 894 54 8 38 453 2 434 975 39 28 734 9 98 3 37 277 99 7 435 843 343 58 9 368 829 377 976 5 2 94 8 946 24 369 344 52 6 986 89 6 343 57 8 9 867 463 977 9 67 5 44 3 463 2 763 388 982 84 86 78 369 876 7 77 95 3 978 9 92 9 394 3 29 5 434 363 88 566 35 449 267 38 5 525 698 75 979 6 32 3 46 547 2 53 294 82 5 7 99 5 846 9 439 44 538 98 9 98 75 233 92 232 242 3 366 5 94 8 789 38 434 Spain 98 2 825 3 6 298 2 228 277 88 4 5 5 262 83-399 37 982 998 76 32 77 287 525 4 55 6 6 4 3-363 73 983 6 26 473 243 234 4 229 5 84 22 975-289 992 984 674 686 23 743 8 68 3 663 22 256-277 65 985 3 48 23 9 4 395 2 65 7 846 3 335 62 489 4 33 37 92 986 8 667 59 543 92 232 96 5 497 7 58 5 54 3 55 43 3 987 5 36 986 7 35 268 4 6 223 957 22 34 2 55 523 7 988 5 329 2 55 65 2 83 223 42 95 8 7 69 365 862 434 939 989 5 625 3 23 326 3 29 58 684 7 82 7 56 34 593 273 332 48 99 9 584 592 69 437 88 737 7 95 3 42 74 69 5 87 99 8 98 975 Greenland 2 63 26 226 3 677 3 98 9 427 3 3 278 269 58 992 663 2 3 337 3 9 68 46 6 27 6 2 82 35 Iceland 29 383 234 993 7 435 3 572 5 389 5 887 22 5 8 8 336 244 86 9 374 3 97 53 6 994 22 826 962 6 882 8 283 38 395 4 929 5 579 29 925 36 737 28 568 746 86 995 22 262 4 92 7 462 7 428 39 987 5 55 6 329 296 58 34 24 5 742 739 999 996 7 758 5 352 6 529 8 326 39 58 5 87 6 6 35 37 23 5 4 85 732 228 997 2 76 5 353 6 426 6 68 357 825 7 3 8 66 33 344 4 2 3 33 762 43 998 4 29 97 6 388 3 84 284 647 4 22 4 294 244 5 423 8 27 592 624 999 3 7 2 37 4 93 3 9 223 39 8 994 35 2 379 985 5 898 484 9 2 3 35 2 62 5 787 3 53 92 86 8 695 9 65 66 22 7 562 5 5 44 87 2 2 5 2 68 5 727 4 524 88 43 9 96 8 698 83 572 5 97 5 225 426 47 22 5 693 2 934 6 49 4 57 22 559 8 44 8 977 84 72 5 975 5 484 445 45 23 9 427 2 92 7 26 4 732 9 977 7 924 8 7 82 6 5 963 6 49 436 99 24 9 226 3 62 8 96 6 87 22 7 285 4 4 2 525 7 2 6 82 489 445 25 6 273 3 49 8 35 5 848 27 825 9 349 744 2 77 5 874 7 66 475 276 26 6 48 3 834 8 64 3 769 2 85 9 29 594 23 775 5 95 6 26 469 97 Provisional figures. USSR prior to 99. Includes Baltic countries. 24 ICES Advice 27, Book 3
Table 3.4..3 North-East Arctic cod (Sub-areas I and II) Year Recruitment SSB Landings Mean F Age 3 Ages 5- thousands tonnes tonnes 946 72839 2776 76.857 947 4253 6559 8827.347 948 442592 94 774295.3398 949 468348 729879 822.369 95 7498 65339 73982.3566 95 83753 56875 8278.3966 952 93 52599 876795.5348 953 59377 39647 695546.3572 954 64584 429694 8262.3879 955 272778 34699 4784.5437 956 43962 299823 34368.64 957 8478 2784 792557.589 958 496824 95377 76933.569 959 68369 432489 74467.5596 96 789653 383479 62242.4789 96 96842 44228 78322.6348 962 728338 3678 99266.7576 963 47264 2827 776337.9866 964 338678 8657 437695.6789 965 77694 235 44493.5533 966 58256 2722 4837.532 967 29546 29784 57265.5439 968 64955 22725 7484.574 969 239 587 97226.8292 97 975 224482 933246.7493 97 44774 3662 68948.5956 972 539 3465 565254.6928 973 88949 33293 792685.62 974 52396 6449 2433.5633 975 6266 4228 829377.6595 976 63942 7238 867463.6457 977 34854 34385 953.8379 978 63849 24536 69875.946 979 9849 74699 44538.7264 98 37735 8253 38434.724 98 5868 66926 39938.8632 982 583 32633 36373.7583 983 6683 3278 289992.756 984 39783 2587 27765.96 985 523674 93856 3792.738 986 37294 7729 433.8649 987 286233 2243 5237.95 988 24644 22589 434939.9743 989 7278 23476 33248.662 99 242749 3647 22.27 99 4727 74743 3958.32 992 72977 887558 53234.455 993 89632 77569 586.5528 994 873 64856 7786.8678 995 659269 528745 739999.788 996 437438 57465 732228.6989 997 75534 588322 76243.347 998 843569 38558 592624.992 999 54756 292298 4849.9937 2 653 239848 44868.8585 2 5375 353956 42647.7242 22 4452 495634 53545.677 23 638975 5478 5599.5357 24 322496 66389 66445.6899 25 55444 64399 64276.73 26 48987 5963 59697.6575 27 565.6925 Average 598772 393225 6656.6486 ICES Advice 27, Book 3 25
Annex 3.4. Northeast Arctic Cod Management Agreement At the 33rd meeting of the Joint Russian Norwegian Fisheries Commission (JRNC) in November 24, the following decision was made: The Parties agreed that the management strategies for cod and haddock should take into account the following: conditions for high long-term yield from the stocks achievement of year-to-year stability in TACs full utilization of all available information on stock development On this basis, the Parties determined the following decision rules for setting the annual fishing quota (TAC) for Northeast Arctic cod (NEA cod): estimate the average TAC level for the coming 3 years based on F pa. TAC for the next year will be set to this level as a starting value for the 3-year period. the year after, the TAC calculation for the next 3 years is repeated based on the updated information about the stock development, however the TAC should not be changed by more than +/- % compared with the previous year s TAC. if the spawning stock falls below B pa, the procedure for establishing TAC should be based on a fishing mortality that is linearly reduced from F pa at B pa, to F= at SSB equal to zero. At SSB-levels below B pa in any of the operational years (current year, a year before and 3 years of prediction) there should be no limitations on the year-to-year variations in TAC. The Parties agreed on similar decision rules for haddock, based on F pa and B pa for haddock, and with a fluctuation in TAC from year to year of no more than +/-25% (due to larger stock fluctuations). This quotation is taken from point 5. in the Protocol of the 33rd session of The Joint Norwegian Russian Fishery Commission and translated from Norwegian to English. For an accurate interpretation, please consult the text in the official languages of the Commission (Norwegian and Russian). 26 ICES Advice 27, Book 3