Construction market overview Jan Blahoňovský jan.blahonovsky@urspraha.cz www.euroconstruct.cz www.urspraha.cz TRENDY VÝVOJE STAVEBNICTVÍ V EVROPĚ
2 France [FR] BIPE Germany [GE] Ifo The EUROCONSTRUCT Network Poland [PL] PAB-PCR&F Portugal [PT] ITIC Austria [AT] WIFO Hungary [HU] BUILDECON Slovakia [SK] ÚEOS Belgium [BE] Aquiec-Vkebi Ireland [IE] DKM Spain [ES] ITeC Czech Republic [CZ] ÚRS PRAHA Italy [IT] CRESME Sweden [SE] Prognoscentret AB Denmark [DK] CIFS Netherlands [NL] EIB Switzerland [CH] KOF ETH Finland [FI] Forecon Norway [NO] Prognosesenteret AS UROCONSTRUCT France [FR] BIPE Network Poland [PL] PAB-PCR&F United Kingdom [UK] EXPERIAN FI Germany [GE] Ifo Portugal [PT] ITIC NO O Hungary [HU] BUILDECON Slovakia [SK] ÚEOS SE uiec-vkebi Ireland [IE] DKM Spain [ES] ITeC Z] ÚRS PRAHA Italy [IT] CRESME Sweden [SE] Prognoscentret AB IFS Netherlands [NL] EIB Switzerland [CH] KOF ETH DK con Norway [NO] Prognosesenteret AS UCT Network Poland [PL] PAB-PCR&F o Portugal [PT] ITIC ILDECON Slovakia [SK] ÚEOS United Kingdom [UK] EXPERIAN NO SE IE FI UK BE NL DE CZ PL E Spain [ES] ITeC Sweden [SE] Prognoscentret AB DK FR CH AT HU SK EIB gnosesenteret AS PCR&F C Switzerland [CH] KOF IEETH United Kingdom [UK] EXPERIAN NO SE UK FR BE NL CH DE FI CZ AT PL SK HU PT ES IT DK IT ES IE UK NL PT PL
3 Construction output and growth rate in Euroconstruct 19 countries 1500b 1 450b 1400b 1350b 1 300b 1250b 1.9% 2.4% 2.6% 1.2% 0.0% -2.6% -5.9% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Y/Y changes (right scale) Output at constant 2014 price Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th conference)
4 Total 1341bn (%) New Construction 652bn (48.6%) Renovation 689bn (51.4%) Western Europe 605bn (.8%) Western Europe 664bn (.4%) CEE 47bn (7.2%) CEE 25bn (3.6%)
5 Construction output as % of GDP in 2014 15% 10% EC19 Average: 9.4% 15% 10% 5% 5% 0% AUT BEL DNK FIN FRA DEU IRL ITA NLD NOR PRT ESP SWE CHE GBR CZE HUN POL SVK 0% Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th conference)
6 Forecast Revision: Total Construction Output Index 2014=, Warsaw (- x) refers to the previous EC forecasts 120 Euroconstruct Countries (EC-19) Warsaw (-4) Warsaw (-3) Warsaw (-2) Warsaw (-1) EC June 2015, Warsaw * 120 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 120 Western Europe (EC-15) 120 Eastern Europe (EC-4) 120 * '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 *These graphs are not mistaken. They display each of the 5 forecasts Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th conference)
7 growth. Construction market structure and structure in EC countries (EC-19), 2014 billion euro at 2014 prices Euroocnstruct-19: % Big-5: 69%, Nordic-4: 10%, Small WE-6: 16% Eastern Europe-4: 5% Construction market EC-19: EUR 1341bn Construction market WE (EC-15): EUR 1269bn Construction market EE (EC-4): EUR 72bn Res. 368 (27%) Res. 246 (18%) Res. 363 (29%) Res. 235 (19%) Non-Res. 10 (14%) Res. 6 (8%) Res. 11 (15%) Non-Res. 206 (15%) Civil eng. 114 (9%) Civil eng. 184 (14%) Non-Res. 223 (17%) Non-Res. 1 (15%) Civil eng. (8%) Civil eng. 168 (13%) Non-Res. 202 (16%) Civil eng. 9 (12%) Civil eng. 15 (21%) Non-Res. 21 (30%) Renovation: EUR 688bn (51%) New: EUR 653bn (49%) Renovation: EUR 664bn (52%) New: EUR 605bn (48%) Renovation: EUR 25bn (34%) New: EUR 47bn (66%) Res.: Residential, Non-Res.: Non-residential, Civil eng.: Civil engineering Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th conference)
8 New and Renovation ratio in EC countries, 2014 % 80% 60% 40% renovation % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% new AUT SVK POL IRL CZE GBR PRT ESP CHE NOR SWE BEL FIN FRA NLD HUN EC19 DEU DNK ITA 20% 0% Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th conference)
9 Construction output growth rates year to year change in % 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 3.6 3.8 2.0 2.4 0.7 1.3 1.4-0.8 0.4 1.4-0.7-3.0-4.3-8.6 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016F 2017F New Renovation 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8-10 Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th conference)
have also reduced on each occasion since the Prague 10 Residential Construction, Euroconstruct Countries (EC-19) Index 2010=, Warsaw (- x) refers to the previous EC forecasts have also reduced on each occasion since the Prague Total Warsaw (-3) Warsaw (-2) Warsaw (-1) EC June 2015, Warsaw Residential Construction, Euroconstruct Countries (EC-19) Index 2010=, Warsaw (- x) refers to the previous EC forecasts 106 104 New construction 106 104 106 Total 106 104 104 106 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Renovation 106 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 104 104 Warsaw (-3) Warsaw (-2) Warsaw (-1) EC June 2015, Warsaw Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th Conference) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th Conference)
11 Revision of non-residential construction forecast index 2010= Non-residential construction and economic growth, 19 EC countries Construction output: bill. Euro at 2014 prices, GDP: Y/Y real change in % 88 350 300 250 200 bill euro 350 300 250 200 88 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 EC November 2014, Milan EC June 2015, Warsaw 86 150 19 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Non-Residential, NEW Non-Residential, RENOVATION 150 Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th Conference) Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th Conference), Eurostat
12 land and considerable upward revisions too in Forecast comparison: Civil Engineering segments index 2014=, current forecast (June 2015, Warsaw) and previous (Nov 2014, Milan) Total C.E. (EC19) Total C.E. (EC19-Spain) 2011 2013 2015 2017 2011 2013 2015 2017 Road (EC19) Source: EUROCONSTRUCT (79th conference) Railways (EC19)
13 80th EUROCONSTRUCT Conference 3-4 December 2015, Budapest, Hungary 80 th NEW FEATURES REGIONAL PRESENTATIONS BIGGER COVERAGE 80 th EUROCONSTRUCT Conference REGION 1 Germany Austria Switzerland REGION 2 Sweden Norway Finland Denmark REGION 3 United Kingdom Ireland REGION 4 France Netherlands Belgium REGION 5 Spain Italy Portugal REGION 6 Poland Czech Republic Hungary Slovak Republic REGION 7 Russia Turkey Ukraine REGION 8 Bulgaria Croatia Romania Serbia Slovenia 19 EUROCONSTRUCT COUNTRIES + 8 EECFA COUNTRIES SOMETHING OLD SOMETHING NEW 2 3 4 1 6 7 8 5 COMMON MARKET SENTIMENT European Construction: Market Trends until 2018 ONLINE SUBMISSION OF QUESTIONS ONLINE VOTING ON FORECAST ORGANIZER: PROVIDER OF EASTERN EUROPEAN FORECAST: European Construction: Market Trends until 2018
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