Southwest Ohio Regional Economy in Context Richard Stock, PhD. Business Research Group
State of the Metro Area (in January Each Year) Total Employment has slowly increased in the last three years after falling off a cliff in the two year period 2008 to 2010. The Unemployment Rate reached a peak (12.4%) in January 2010 but fell to 7.9% by February, 2013. Still leaves 31,400 people unemployed. 440 420 400 380 360 340 320 426.4 Employment (in 000s) 394.7 363.1 371.6
State of the Metro Area (in January Each Year) Total Employment has increased sharply in the last two years after falling off a cliff in the two year period 2007 to 2009. The Unemployment Rate reached a peak (10.7%) in January 2010 but fell to 7.4% by February, 2013. Still leaves 79,600 people unemployed. 1040 1020 1000 980 960 940 920 995.4 Employment (in 000s) 1032.9 959 983.8
Total Employment Index: & Metros, Ohio and the United States, January 2000-2013 110.0 105.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 105.5 103.8 102.9 98.8 98.8 96.6 96.3 U.S. 92.0 92.6 Ohio 89.0 87.1 85.2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Manufacturing Employment Index: & Metros, Ohio and the United States, January 2000-2013 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 69.5 71.2 66.1 69.0 U.S. 63.7 Ohio 59.2 46.8 50.7 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Prof. & Bus. Serv. Employment Index: & Metros, Ohio and the United States, January 2000-2013 120.0 110.0 U.S. Ohio 117.4 109.9 106.8 107.1 121.3 110.8 105.2 101.8 100.9 96.4 98.2 90.0 80.0 87.5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Education and Health Services Index: & Metros, Ohio and the United States, January 2000-2013 145.0 140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0 110.0 105.0 95.0 90.0 U.S. 137.2 Ohio 130.2 119.9 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Hospital Employment Index: & Metros, Ohio and the United States, January 2000-2013 140.0 135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0 110.0 105.0 95.0 U.S. Ohio 99.5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 135.2 124.3 122.3
Federal Government Employment Index: & Metros, Ohio and the United States, January 2000-2013 115.0 110.0 105.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 U.S. Ohio 100.5 101.1 97.5 92.5 89.4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
State Government Employment Index: & Metros, Ohio and the United States, January 2000-2013 115.0 110.0 105.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 105.2 101.6 97.9 U.S. 97.1 Ohio 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Local Government Employment Index: & Metros, Ohio and the United States, January 2000-2013 115.0 110.0 105.0 U.S. Ohio 111.7 108.6 104.1 107.5 95.0 99.5 97.2 95.7 90.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
The Income Piece The question is whether SW Ohio and Ohio are Struggling with: Job Creation Issue People with Jobs Making Less Income
Average Weekly Earnings, All Private Employment, Constant 2012 Dollars: & Metros, Ohio and the United States, Annual Average, 2007-2012 $890 $870 $850 $830 $810 $790 $770 $750 $730 $710 $690 $670 $650 United States Ohio $853 $816 $812 $803 $806 $767 $761 $751 $754 $747 $705 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Relationship to National Economy Cyclical Factors Long Term Factors
Jan 1990 Nov 1990 Sep 1991 Jul 1992 May 1993 Mar 1994 Jan 1995 Nov 1995 Sep 1996 Jul 1997 May 1998 Mar 1999 Jan 2000 Nov 2000 Sep 2001 Jul 2002 May 2003 Mar 2004 Jan 2005 Nov 2005 Sep 2006 Jul 2007 May 2008 Mar 2009 Jan 2010 Nov 2010 Sep 2011 Jul 2012 United States, & Metropolitan Areas Monthly Unemployment Rates, January 1990-February 2013 14 12 10 8 U.S 6 4 2 0
Nov 2007 Feb 2008 May 2008 Aug 2008 Nov 2008 Feb 2009 May 2009 Aug 2009 Nov 2009 Feb 2010 May 2010 Aug 2010 Nov 2010 Feb 2011 May 2011 Aug 2011 Nov-11 Feb 2012 May 2012 Aug 2012 Nov 2012 Feb-13 United States, & Metropolitan Areas Monthly Unemployment Rates, November 2007-February 2013 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 U.S 7.9 7.4
Number of Unemployed in & Metropolitan Areas, 1990-February 2013 120000 116643 100000 80000 60000 39224 40000 20000 16922 0 51360 31400 79600 -------
Decline in Unemployed Linked to Declines in Labor Force, 2009-2012 (in 000s) 2009 2012 Change Percent of Decline in Unemployed Civilian Labor Force 1,121 1,089-31 119% Employed 1,017 1012-5 -19% Unemployed 104 78-26 100% Civilian Labor Force 421 404-22 147% Employed 375 373-7 -47% Unemployed 47 31-15 100%
Forecasting the Next 3 years Note that the & Metropolitan Areas have mirrored the Country as a whole more closely in the last few years. So, the National economy has been on the slow boat road to recovery with sustained job growth Will it continue? And How Likely are & to Diverge from the National Economic Forecast? (Issue of Defense Spending Cuts & Health Spending Increases)
Survey of Professional Forecasters, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank (1st Quarter Estimates) Quarterly data: Unemployment CPI Inflation Rate (%) Real GDP (%) Rate (%) Headline Core 2013:Q1 2.1 7.8 1.8 1.8 2013:Q2 2.3 7.7 2.1 2.0 2013:Q3 2.6 7.6 2.1 2.0 2013:Q4 2.5 7.5 2.1 2.0 2014:Q1 2.7 7.4 2.1 2.0 Annual average data: 2013 2.3 7.7 2.0 1.9 2014 2.8 7.2 2.2 2.1 2015 2.9 6.7 2.3 2.2 2016 3.0 6.3
Potential Impact of Defense Cuts - Number of Jobs Linked to Wright Patterson Air Force Base Activities ~ 25,000 to 30,000 Defense spending cuts relative to planned spending over the next few years is extremely likely Since the cuts are likely to be program specific for particular big ticket items, impact on Wright Patterson related employment is uncertain. If one assumes a 10% drop in WPAFB related employment over a 3 to 4 year period, that implies 2500 to 3000 fewer jobs or an annual impact of about a 1000 jobs. It represents a head wind on local job growth in
Immediate Impact of Furloughs at WPAFB 13,000 Civilian Workers. They represent 3.4% of employment. 22 work days out of 125 work days in next 6 months = 17.6%, so if earnings were average for region, the direct hit would be 3.4% X 17.6% = 0.6% over next 6 months. Local multipliers are small (1.2 to 1.5) so the greatest impact is direct effect on those families.