Our 6 th Annual Perceptions Survey 2017 40 companies represented this year - 10 more than last year Thank you to the 75 luminaries and members for your responses! 1
EUV Confidence Reflected in Survey Results NIL confidence remains driven by Memory applications 9 8 7 6 5 5 Please rate your confidence that the following lithography solutions 45% are used for at least one manufacturing step of at least one production chip 35% being manufactured in the world by the end of 2021: 79% 2015 (response to "end of 2020") n=61 2016 (response to "end of 2020") n=73 2017 (response to "end of 2021") n=75 46% 25% 2 15% 5% NIL Confidence by Application Segment 7% 47% 8% Logic Memory Microprocessors 2017 Weighted Avg 2 18% 26% 18% EUV DSA CEBL NIL ebdw 2
75% Predict EUV in HVM by End of 2020 5 2 By the end of which year do you predict EUV will be used in high volume manufacturing? Choose one. 1% 3% 35% 25% 2 15% 5% By the end of which year do you predict EUV will be used in high volume manufacturing? Choose one. 1% 22% 25% 16% 33% 25% 23% 2017 (n=75) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 or beyond Never 75% 44% 2016 (n=73) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 or beyond Never 6% 1% * Answer choices expanded in 2017 survey see X axis in two charts above 3
EUV Pessimism Now Negligible Only 1% predict Never this year vs 35% in 2014 % of Respondents Indicating EUV will "Never" be used in HVM 35% 25% 2 15% 5% 35% 22% 15% 11% 6% "Never" 2012 (n=42) 2013 (n=49) 2014 (n=52) 2015 (n=64) 2016 (n=73) 2017 (n=75) 1% 4
Actinic Inspection Predictions More Hopeful Only 7% predict Never this year vs 21% in 2016 6 5 By the end of which year do you predict actinic mask inspection for EUV will be used in high volume manufacturing? Please choose one. 52% 2016 (n=61) 2 11% 15% 21% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 or beyond Never 6 5 2 By the end of which year do you predict actinic mask inspection for EUV will be used in high volume manufacturing? Please choose one. 11% 31% 49% 7% 2017 (n=71) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 or beyond Never * Answer choices expanded in 2017 survey see X axis in two charts above 5
Consistent View: Slower Mask Resists Predicted 2016 Median: 1.8X 2017 Median: 1.5X n=53 6
74% Say Multi-beam HVM by end of 2019 Predictions extend 2016 survey* results by >10 months By the end of which year do you believe that multi-beam technology will be used for mask writing for high volume manufacturing? Select one answer. 29% 35% 32% 2 4% 2016 2017 2018 2019 or later 2016 (n=69) 35. 30. 25. 20. 15. 10. 5. 0. By the end of which year do you believe that multi-beam technology will be used for mask writing for high volume manufacturing? Select one answer. 30.6% 30.6% 18.1% 12.5% 2017 (n=72) 8.3% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 or later 74% * Answer choices expanded in 2017 survey see X axis in two charts above 7
Yet Multi-beam Purchasing Predictions Increased 7 What percentage of new ebeam mask writers purchased worldwide will be multi-beam writers? Please answer for each year. 6 5 51% 58% 24% 2015 (n=58) 2016 (n=69) 2017 (n=70) 2 15% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 8
Multi-beam Perceptions Reflect Early Days 61% say VSB ebeam throughput adequate next few years Multi-beam Mask Writing (MBMW) Perceptions More accuracy and reliability data needed on MBMWs for high volume manufacturing n=58 Cost effectiveness of MBMWs is already clear Current VSB single-beam system throughput is still adequate for the next few years 61% n=48 n=62 2 6 8 10 Strongly Disagree Disagree Agree Strongly Agree 9
Majority Perceive MBMW Required for ILT & EUV Multi-beam Mask Writing (MBMW) Perceptions NIL adoption requires MBMWs n=56 EUV adoption requires MBMWs n=60 193i + Inverse Lithography Technology (ILT) adoption requires MBMWs n=65 2 6 8 10 Strongly Disagree Disagree Agree Strongly Agree 10
7 Think ILT Usage Starting at Leading Edge How broadly is inverse lithography technology (ILT) used for production chips today (2017)? Select one answer. no layers use ILT (yet) 2017 a few critical layers of leading edge nodes use ILT 46% some critical layers of leading edge nodes use ILT 21% 7 all critical layers of leading edge nodes use ILT 3% n=61 11
ILT Predicted to be a Future Need for EUV Only 5% said Never 35% 25% There will be at least one layer of a high volume production chip that will use ILT for EUV lithography by what year? Select one answer. 24% 35% 2017 2 15% 5% 5% 8% 14% 5% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 or beyond never n=63 12
A New Era Has Begun EUV greater confidence and optimism reflected throughout survey Multi-beam expectations remain high while timeframe has shifted VSB and multi-beam mask writers predicted to co-exist ILT believed to be used in a few layers of many leading-edge chips 13
Thank you to those who participated in the survey! Feedback and questions for future surveys welcome send to jan@williscalibra.com 14