How conservation NGOs decide what to do & measure whether it works Karl Didier Wildlife Conservation Society kdidier@wcs.org Oct 27, 2015
Today s talk 1. Are conservation organizations succeeding? 2. How do we get better: Adaptive management tools for improving the practice of conservation 3. Suggestions for interested students
Money spent by the 5 largest global conservation organizations Organization 2011-12 Revenue The Nature Conservancy(1951) ~$US 871 million 1 WWF International Network(1961)~$794 million 2 WCS(1897) ~$ 223 million 1 Conservation International(1987) ~$ 136 million 3 IUCN(1948) ~$ 122 million 4 1 Total Revenue reported in Annual Report FY 2011-2012 2 Total Operating Income in Annual Review for FY 2011-2012, 1 USD = 0.7473 EUR (mean for FY), The network includes WWF International and its Programme Offices, and all the WWF National Organizations and their Programme Offices 3 Total Revenue reported in Impact Report FY13, but for FY 2011-2012 4 Total External Operating Income in Annual Report for FY2011-2012, 1 USD = 0.8977 CHF
Are we succeeding? In general, at the global scale a) Yes b) No c) I don t know
Declining Ecosystems ~ 50% of forests gone Tropical deforestation rate ~58,000 km2/year (~0.5%)
Declining species WWF s Living Planet Index
Extinctions Observed recent extinctions Toolache Wallaby Australia, ~1940 Kaua'i oo Australia, ~1980s Baiji China, ~2000s Golden Toad Costa Rica, ~1990 Scimitar-horned Oryx Northern Africa (extinct in the wild)
Convention on Biological Diversity The target agreed by the world s Governments in 2002: to achieve by 2010 a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional and national level as a contribution to poverty alleviation and to the benefit of all life on Earth, has not been met Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2010) Global Biodiversity Outlook 3. Montréal, 94 pages.
CBD 11 goals, many sub-goals NONE achieved at global scale Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity (2010) Global Biodiversity Outlook 3. Montréal, 94 pages.
Why are we (sometimes) failing?
Insufficient Investment Aid to the developing world $787 billion InBillions Millionsof ofdollars US Dollars (US) 140 American Recovery & Reinvestment Act 120 100 80 60 40 20 Source: OECDstats In 2006, Biodiversity Aid ~0.5% of Development Aid Slide courtesy of D. Miller & A. Agrawal
Inefficient Investment: wrong places Protected Areas by Biome From Jenkins et al. 2009
Inefficient Global investment = Insufficient Investment in Developing World $$$ invested in Protected Areas Amazonas Brazil (CEUC) Florida State Parks, United States Budget per year (US$) 8.92 million 92.1 million Land in Protect Areas (ha) 18.8 million 0.32 million Investment per ha (US$/ha) 0.474 287 CEUC manages 58 times the are for 1/10 of the budget! Fontes: CEUC orçamento medio 2008-12, Marques Ferreira et. al 2013. Relatório Conclusivo de Auditoria Operacional e Ambiental em Unidades de Conservação Estaduais do Amazonas. Florida- orçamento ano fiscal 2010-211, http://www.dep.state.fl.us/secretary/stats/administration.htm (25 Nov, 2013) Dolár-Real Conversão Média 1 Julho 2010 a 30 Junho 2012, http://www.oanda.com/lang/pt/currency/converter/.4874 BRL/USD
Inefficient investment: wrong strategies? Community Based Natural Resource Management Improve Enforcement Educate school children Less forest clearance & degradation Less poaching What works to save jaguars?
How do we do better? 1. Be smarter about choosing what we do 2. Be smarter about where we work 3. Be better at raising money 4. Be better at measuring our effectiveness 5. Be better at adapting 6. Be better at sharing & learning from others
Be better at... Plan & Adapt Evaluate & Learn Adaptive Management of Conservation Projects Raise $ Monitor Implement
AM for Conservation Projects
A tour of CMPs process & tools Open Standards for the Practice of Conservation
Conceptualize your project What s going on now? What do we want to achieve?
Who are the stakeholders & who should be on your planning team? Stakholder Assessment & Mapping Planning Team
What is the scope of your project & vision you d like to achieve? Scope: Geographic or thematic limits of your project E ASTERN STEPPE Vision:
What biodiversity will we focus on? (conservation targets) Given that there are a lot of species & ecosystems out there, which features should we: Plan around? Use to measure our success?
What are your ultimate goals? Biodiversity targets By 2025, 50% of vernal pools have reproducing1 populations of wood frogs. Measurable Time-bound Specific Ends, not means
Poll Question Which is the best written goal for a Conservation Project? a. In 10 years, eliminate mangrove harvesting in all of Ban Don Bay, Thailand. b. By 2022, more than 80 pairs of quetzales will successfully nest and reproduce each year in the Sierra de las Minas Biosphere Reserve. c. Within 12 years of the start of the project, Katani Nature Preserve will serve as an effective ecological corridor for tigers traveling between Karimara and Sulaken National Parks. d. By 2015, the population of Golden Lion Tamarins has increased.
What are the threats? Threats Assessments: Tools for identifying, mapping, assessing the impact of threats, & prioritizing which to work on
What is driving threats? Social factors Institutional factors Economic factors Cultural factors Political factors Threats Hunting Logging Exotic Species Urban Development
Conceptual Models
Exercise What are the major economic, social, cultural, or institutional factors contributing to bushmeat hunting? Residents need bush meat for protein Bush meat hunting
Plan what you re going to do What actions will we take? How will we measure whether they work?
What could we do? Framework for brainstorming strategies Strategy Strategy Strategy
Lots of possibilities What should we do?
Which strategies have the biggest bang for the buck?
What do we think will happen? Results chains: A series of if then causal statements A theory of change, comprised of testable hypotheses Educate & lobby lawmakers about Strategy turtles & beach development State lawmakers more Result aware of problem Law requiring Result zoning is passed Less Beach beach development development More Sea Turtles Useful for finding hidden assumptions
Exercise Change this chain from a conceptual model into a results chain: Strategy? Don t have alternatives Residents need bush meat for protein Bushmeat hunting monkeys
Exercise Change this chain from a conceptual model into a results chain: Give residents Strategy? live chickens More Don t residents have alternatives raise chickens Residents Residents need bush eat more meat for chicken protein Less Bushmeat bushmeat hunting hunting monkeys More monkeys Assumptions? Missing results?
What are our intermediate objectives? Objectives: intermediate statements of what we want to achieve on the way to our ultimate goal Objective 3: By 2013, 200 households are raising their own chickens. Objective 2: By 2015, households eat 20% more chicken. Ultimate Goal: By 2020, there are >500 monkeys in the protected area. Give residents Strategy? live chickens More Don t residents have alternatives raise chickens Residents Residents need bush eat more meat for chicken protein Objective Objective 1: By 1? 2015, there is 20% less bushmeat hunting by local residents in the protected area. Less Bushmeat bushmeat hunting hunting More monkeys
How will we measure progress? Indicator: # of monkeys in the protected area Goal: By 2020, there are >500 monkeys in the protected area. Give residents Strategy? live chickens Indicator: Kg of bushmeat harvested from PA More Don t residents have alternatives raise chickens Residents Residents need bush eat more meat for chicken protein Objective 1: By 2015, there is 20% less bushmeat hunting by local residents in the protected area. Less Bushmeat bushmeat hunting hunting More monkeys
Implement Actions & Monitoring Who s gonna do all this stuff & with what resources?
Work Planning Miradi tool: Who will do it? When? Budget Where s the $ coming from?
Analyze, Use, & Adapt How are we doing? How should we change?
Database tools for managing info, analyzing, & reporting Mobile data collection (e.g., Open Data Kit) Data Management, Analysis, & Reporting
Capture & Share Learning How do we get the information to decisionmakers? How do we share what s working & what s not with others?
Database tools for managing info, analyzing, & reporting Dissemination & Sharing
Improving the effectiveness of conservation action
Suggestions for interested students Teach or take a course in strategic planning or adaptive management http://sites.google.com/site/teachadaptivemanagement/
Suggestions for interested students Design your research to help practitioners spend their money more wisely Which threats have the biggest impact? Do strategies work to reduce threats? Which strategies work better?
Suggestions for interested students Encourage organizations you work with to join CMP http://www.conservationmeasures.org/