R201E/161223 How to pick horses with the best chance to win? The information provided in this material is for personal use only, and should not be redistributed, resold and/copied in any format and by any means. Copyright The Hong Kong Jockey Club. All rights reserved.
Three key steps to picking the right horses 2
Horse Assessment Table 1 st Step: Basic View 2 nd Step: Special Adjustment 3 rd Step: Final View Horse Form Track and Distance Jockey and Trainer Draw Class and Weight Condition Pace and Trend 1 2 3 4 5 Mark + when the horse has an edge in a particular area; mark - when the horse has a disadvantage After adding up the + s and - s, the horse which has the most net + s under Final View has the best chance of winning 3
1 st Step: Basic view Study Form 4
1A Assess recent starts and trends by reviewing recent form From the last six starts (left to right), we can find out whether a horse: Recently won or finished in Top-3 position Shows any trends from their recent starts (improving or declining form) If a horse did not finish in a Top-3 position recently, or its trend is getting worse, its chance of winning is lower 5
1A Assess recent starts and trends by reviewing recent form Analyse the horses winning chances in more detail from recent starts, and look for trends Recent starts should be given higher reference values Very good Good Average Bad Very bad Has won once or more Results are improving in the last 3-4 races / Has finished in a Top-3 position Mostly finished between 4 th and 6 th Mostly finished in 7 th position or lower / Results are declining in the last 3-4 races Mostly finished in 10 th position or lower ++ -- For horse debuts in Hong Kong you should refer to overseas records, or look at a horse s dam / sire records in Hong Kong 6
1A Fill in your ratings for Form Horse 1 st Step: Basic View Form Track and Distance Jockey and Trainer 2 nd Step: Special Adjustment Draw Class and Weight Condition Pace and Trend 3 rd Step: Final View 1 + 2 -- 3 + 4 ++ 5 -- 6 + 7-8 + 9 -- 10-11 ++ 12 + 13 + 14 ++ 7
Just studying form is by far not enough, we must also look at other important factors If your analysis focuses only on form and overlooks other variables, the result is likely to be biased. For example: Even though a horse has won, or finished in a top-3 position, in its recent races, it might not be able to overcome the challenge of a heavier weight or a rise in class If a horse has not finished in a top-3 position in recent races, it might have been running over a non-favourite track and distance or started from an unfavourable draw. Conversely if it runs over its favourite track and distance or starts from a good draw in its next race, it may get a positive result 8
2 nd Step: Further refine the horses winning chances by assessing other key factors 9
Impact of Track and Distance 10
2A Running over the best distance is a big plus Each horse s explosive force, stamina and strength are different; therefore most horses have their own best distance A horse which performs well over 1400-1600M may not have the explosive force required for a 1000M sprint race A horse which performs well over 1400-1600M may not have the stamina required for a 2000M longdistance race 11
2A Example: JOLLY JOLLY Find the horse s best distance by analysing its last six starts JOLLY JOLLY always finished in a Top-2 position when it ran over 1200-1400M However, it could not finish in a Top-3 position when it ran over 1600M This means that JOLLY JOLLY favours 1200-1400M, but might not like other distances Recent ranking should not be the only focus when studying a horse s form. Attention should also be paid to whether the horse is running over its best distance too 12
2A Even for the same distance, our 3 different tracks have big impact to a horse s performance Sha Tin Turf Sha Tin Dirt (All-Weather Track) Happy Valley Sha Tin Racecourse Turf Track Sha Tin Racecourse All-Weather Track Happy Valley Racecourse Turf Track Surface Grass Sand, clay and organic elements Grass Nature Flat Kickback may hit horses at the rear in the field Up-and-down Turns Relatively moderate turns Relatively moderate turns Tighter turns Length of Home Straight 430M 365M 312 338M 13
2A Performance should be compared over the same track and distance Same track and distance consists of three elements: Same racecourse (Sha Tin / Happy Valley) Same track (turf / dirt) Same distance A horse that performs well over ST 1200M may not be as good over HV 1200M because the two tracks have different characteristics Distance Runs in Racing Touch shows horses same track and distance records 14
2A Example: EXPEDITE EXPEDITE won twice over ST Dirt 1650M which proves that it is good on a dirt track; however, EXPEDITE could not finish in a Top-3 position over HV 1650M Even over the same distance, the horse s performance on different tracks can be very different So we should pay more attention to EXPEDITE when it runs in an ST Dirt 1650M race 15
2A Example: PHOTON WILLIE If there are no track and distance records for comparison, you can consider the horse s running style PHOTON WILLIE likes to drop back to the rear, and then come from behind strongly in the home straight. It can be classified as a late-finisher PHOTON WILLIE won twice at Happy Valley over 1650M with its come-from-behind running style; it should therefore be able to perform over a longer distance such as HV 1800M On the other hand, it may not be suited to a shorter distance such as HV 1200M because the horse may be too far back in the field before the home straight 16
2A Track Condition should also be considered The condition of a turf track is described by the moisture level of the track surface Track condition is mostly affected by weather Turf: track condition is likely to be Good To Firm during dry weather or on sunny days; on the other hand, the track condition may change to Good To Yielding or even Yielding after rain Dirt: track condition may be at one of two extremes after rain; Wet Fast which indicates a solid surface, and Wet Slow which indicates a soft surface Turf Yielding Good To Yielding Good Good To Firm Hard Normal Soft 17
2A Track Condition should also be considered Each horse has its own strengths and characteristics, and may perform particularly well over a specific track condition FRIENDS FOREVER: on Good To Yielding, it won over ST 1400M. However, on Good / Good To Firm it performed less well over the same distance. Therefore, Good To Yielding may be FRIENDS FOREVER s favourite track condition FLYING MOOCHI: on Good / Good To Firm, it finished in a Top-2 position for four consecutive races over ST 1200M. However, on Good To Yielding, it could only finish 6 th over the same distance. Therefore Good To Yielding may be FLYING MOOCHI s unfavoured track condition 18
2A Summary: Impact of Track and Distance Factors to be considered + - Is the horse running over its favourite distance? Yes No Has the horse finished in the Top-3 over the same track and distance? If the horse did not run over the same track and distance, estimate from its running style whether it is suited to the track and distance of this race Yes Suited No Not suited Is the horse running on its favourite track condition? Yes No 19
2A Fill in your ratings for Track and Distance Horse 1 st Step: Basic View Form Track and Distance Jockey and Trainer 2 nd Step: Special Adjustment Draw Class and Weight Condition Pace and Trend 3 rd Step: Final View 1 + + 2 -- - 3 + - 4 ++ + 5 -- - 6 + + 7 - - 8 + + 9 -- - 10 - + 11 ++ + 12 + + 13 + - 14 ++ + 20
Impact of Jockey and Trainer 21
2B Jockey s competence affects the race results A jockey s competence can be reflected in their ranking, Win% and Top-3%. The best jockeys can raise a horse s winning chances J Moreira and Z Purton are top jockeys. Both have outstanding figures for Win% and Top-3% The best jockeys can recover quickly from difficulties such as a wide draw, a knock, or being blocked during a race J Moreira and Z Purton are good jockeys who can handle horses starting from an unfavourably wide draw 22
2B So do not forget to check whether there has been a change of jockey If there is a change to a better jockey, this will improve the horse s winning chances But if there is a change to a weaker jockey, this will lower the horse s winning chances It s particularly noteworthy when there is a change from a lower-ranked jockey to a top-class jockey like J Moreira or Z Purton 23
2B You can also consider trainers performances over various tracks Refer to the trainers rankings over the last three seasons over each track Some trainers may perform well over their favourite tracks because they are good at arranging appropriate horses for particular track type Sha Tin Turf Sha Tin Turf Happy Valley 2015 / 16 2 nd 1 st 2 nd 2014 / 15 1 st 2 nd 1 st 2013 / 14 1 st 2 nd 1 st 24
2B Do not overlook trainers who are ranked lower overall Some trainers may have a lower overall ranking, but have good performance over their favourite tracks Trainer last season performance Overall Ranking 6 th 10 th Happy Valley 3 rd 4 th Sha Tin Dirt 2 nd 4 th 25
2B Summary: Impact of Jockey and Trainer Factors to be considered + - Is the horse ridden by a leading jockey in this race? Yes No Has there been a change to a better/weaker jockey for this race? Better jockey Weaker jockey Does this race start on the trainer s favourite track? Yes No 26
2B Fill in your ratings for Jockey and Trainer Horse 1 st Step: Basic View Form Track and Distance Jockey and Trainer 2 nd Step: Special Adjustment Draw Class and Weight Condition Pace and Trend 3 rd Step: Final View 1 + + + 2 -- - - 3 + - - 4 ++ + + 5 -- - - 6 + + + 7 - - - 8 + + + 9 -- - + 10 - + - 11 ++ + + 12 + + - 13 + - - 14 ++ + + 27
Impact of Draw 28
2C The draw is another key factor in racing In general, horses starting with an inside draw have a competitive advantage. But a better approach is to study the draw by analysing it alongside a horse s favourite track and distance, and its running style 29
2C Study the Win % and Top-3% of each draw over each track and distance Inside draws for ST Turf 2000M, ST Dirt 1650M and HV 1200M have a particularly high Win % This is because there is a tight turn shortly after the start and it requires the horses with wide draws to run a longer distance to get closer to the rail 30
2C Exception: ST Turf 1000M Straight Horses that start from an outside draw have a competitive advantage because there is less damage on the track close to the Grandstand 31
2C Impact of running style A horse s running style can be studied in Racing Touch 32
2C Learn the difference between front-runners and late-finishers from their Running Positions Running Position (Separate the race into four sections) Feature Front-runner 1-1 - 1-1 (the three numbers from the left-hand-side are smaller) A horse with good speed, which likes to run in front of the field before the home straight Late-finisher 11-12- 12-1 (the three numbers from left-hand-side are bigger) A horse with good stamina, which is better off restrained behind the horses in front 33
2C Starting with an inside draw has an advantage especially for frontrunners A front-runner starting with an inside draw will find it easier to lead in a race; this helps it to win However, if it starts with a wide draw, higher speed and more energy are required to get to the inside rail in order to lead. If the horse cannot get to the inside rail, it has less chance of winning 34
2C A late-finisher may have an advantage if it starts with a middle draw rather than an inside draw Be aware that a late-finisher which starts from a wide draw can easily get to the inside rail and be restrained at the back of the field It s even better if a late-finisher starts from a middle draw (draw 5-10) because it will be less likely to be blocked and will more easily find space to accelerate in the home straight 35
2C Watch closely when a horse changes from draw 14 to draw 1 Any change of draw from the last start is very likely to affect a horse s winning chances: From wide draw to inside draw From inside draw to wide draw Example From draw 14 to draw 1 From draw 1 to draw 14 Influence Advantage a shorter distance at turns Disadvantage a longer distance at turns 36
2C Summary: Impact of Draw Factors to be considered + - Is the horse starting from a draw with a higher Win % and Top-3%? Does the horse s running style and draw create a good synergy effect? For example: A front-runner starts from an inside draw A late-finisher starts from a middle draw How has the horse been drawn compared to its last start? (Except ST 1000M Straight) Yes Yes Inside draw No No Wide draw 37
2C Fill in your ratings for Draw Horse 1 st Step: Basic View Form Track and Distance Jockey and Trainer 2 nd Step: Special Adjustment Draw Class and Weight Condition Pace and Trend 3 rd Step: Final View 1 + + + - 2 -- - - + 3 + - - + 4 ++ + + - 5 -- - - - 6 + + + + 7 - - - - 8 + + + + 9 -- - + + 10 - + - - 11 ++ + + + 12 + + - + 13 + - - - 14 ++ + + + 38
Impact of Class and Weight 39
2D Why does a horse carry a light weight? 40
2D Analyse weight carried and winning chance Weight Reason Last start result Top-3 Chance Light Weight Horse Weight reduced after a loss in the same class Weight reduced after a win and is promoted in class Finished in a Top-6 position Did not finish in a Top-6 position Won by 1 length or above Won by less than 1 length Higher chance Lower chance Higher chance Lower chance For lighter horses (body weight 1000 lbs or below), it is harder to carry a heavy weight. So it is beneficial when lighter horses are promoted to the next class and carry less weight 41
2D Why does a horse carry a heavy weight? 42
2D Analyse weight carried and winning chance Weight Reason Last start result Top-3 Chance Heavy Weight Horse Weight increased after winning a race in the same class Weight increased after losing in a race and after a drop in class Won by 1 length or above Won by less than 1 length Finished in a Top-6 position Did not finish in a Top-6 position Higher chance Lower chance Higher chance Lower chance 43
2D Example: ROMANTIC TOUCH ROMANTIC TOUCH did not win in its last six starts, and its performance was average if only judged by its finish positions However, ROMANTIC TOUCH finished 3 rd in a Hong Kong Group I race and was closely defeated by less than 1 length by star runner LUGER This reflects that ROMANTIC TOUCH has an advantage against other Class 1 horses even if it needs to carry a heavy weight; but other factors may affect its winning chances 44
2D Summary: Impact of Class and Weight Factors to be considered + - Did a horse which has been promoted / dropped in class perform well in its last start? For example: Won by 1 length or above and with a weight reduction after a class promotion Weight was added after losing in a race and a drop in class, and finished in a Top-6 position Yes No Did a horse which remains in class perform well in its last start? For example: Won by 1 length or above with weight added Weight reduced after a loss in the same class, and finished in a Top-6 position in its last start Yes No 45
2D Fill in your ratings for Class and Weight Horse 1 st Step: Basic View Form Track and Distance Jockey and Trainer 2 nd Step: Special Adjustment Draw Class and Weight Condition Pace and Trend 3 rd Step: Final View 1 + + + - + 2 -- - - + - 3 + - - + - 4 ++ + + - + 5 -- - - - - 6 + + + + - 7 - - - - - 8 + + + + + 9 -- - + + + 10 - + - - - 11 ++ + + + + 12 + + - + + 13 + - - - + 14 ++ + + + - 46
Impact of Condition 47
2E A horse s weight can reflect its condition Compare a horse s current weight to when it had a Top-3 finish; the difference should be less than 20 lbs If a horse s weight has risen or dropped by 20 lbs or more, it reflects that its condition might also have changed Too much rest weight increased Too much exercise weight dropped 48
2E Do not miss the horse parade Good Body: Firm flat stomach, well-toned muscles with solid lines, and strong neck Manner/Look: Calm, relaxed with eager eyes Gesture: Sprinter active and excited; Long-distance calm 49
2E Also, pay attention to horses gestures which show bad condition Bad Edgy with heavy sweating Bucking frequently which may waste energy 50
2E It is important to watch a barrier trial performance Positive symptoms: The horse finished the barrier trial after a relaxed run without pressured The horse continues to accelerate after the finishing line, showing that it has a strong desire to win The horse finishes close to other higher-rated horses, reflecting that it is in top form The finishing time is much faster than another barrier trial over the same distance on the same day, reflecting that the horse has set a high standard 51
2E Summary: Impact of Condition Factors to be considered + - Compare a horse s current weight to its weight when it finished in the Top-3/weight of last start (rise/drop) Horse s condition in parade Did the horse perform well in its last barrier trial? Maintained its weight Well-toned muscles Eager eyes Calm and relaxed Yes Risen/dropped by more than 20lbs Edgy, heavy sweating Bucking frequently No 52
2E Fill in your ratings for Condition Horse 1 st Step: Basic View Form Track and Distance Jockey and Trainer 2 nd Step: Special Adjustment Draw Class and Weight Condition Pace and Trend 3 rd Step: Final View 1 + + + - + - 2 -- - - + - - 3 + - - + - + 4 ++ + + - + + 5 -- - - - - - 6 + + + + - + 7 - - - - - + 8 + + + + + - 9 -- - + + + - 10 - + - - - - 11 ++ + + + + + 12 + + - + + + 13 + - - - + + 14 ++ + + + - - 53
Impact of Pace and Trend 54
2F Estimate pace of a race with a Speed Map The pace of each race has significant impact on the race result. You can refer to the Speed Map to learn about the estimated pace of an upcoming race and find out which horses might have an advantage 55
2F Watch out for the latefinishers in a fast pace race Fast pace: Imagine there is a 10km run. Some athletes run at 100M speed when they start which makes them burn out and do not have enough energy to last until the end; but athletes who save their energy and run at the rear can then win easily. This is the same logic as a fast pace race in horse racing Fast pace benefits late-finishers In a fast pace race, front-runners run too fast in the early stages and burn themselves out before the home straight. They are then likely to be overtaken by the late-finishers who still have energy 56
2F Watch out for front-runners in a slow pace race Slow pace: Imagine the 10km run again. If most of the athletes run in a relaxed way and fairly slowly after the start, and Athlete A in the front has been ahead for some distance. When approaching the end, the leading Athlete A still has energy for sprinting because of the slow pace, and so other athletes find it hard to catch up from behind. This is the same logic as a slow pace race in horse racing Slow pace benefits front-runners In a slow pace race, front-runners can maintain their leading positions easily throughout the race and at the same time save their energy for a late burst. However, late-finishers have to run even faster than the front-runners if they want to catch up from the rear 57
2F Other factors become crucial if it is a normal pace race Normal pace: equal chance for all horses In a Normal pace, neither front-runners nor late-finishers have significant advantages or disadvantages Their winning chances will be decided by other factors 58
2F Summary: Impact of Pace and Trend Find out the estimated pace from the Speed Map: + - Fast pace (except in a sprint race) Late-finisher Front-runner Slow pace Front-runner Late-finisher 59
2F Fill in your ratings for Pace and Trend Horse 1 st Step: Basic View Form Track and Distance Jockey and Trainer 2 nd Step: Special Adjustment Draw Class and Weight Condition Pace and Trend 3 rd Step: Final View 1 + + + - + - + 2 -- - - + - - - 3 + - - + - + + 4 ++ + + - + + + 5 -- - - - - - - 6 + + + + - + - 7 - - - - - + - 8 + + + + + - + 9 -- - + + + - - 10 - + - - - - - 11 ++ + + + + + + 12 + + - + + + + 13 + - - - + + - 14 ++ + + + - - - 60
Recap the three key steps in picking the right horses 61
Finalise your Horse Assessment Table Horse 1 st Step: Basic View Form Track and Distance Jockey and Trainer 2 nd Step: Special Adjustment Draw Class and Weight Condition Pace and Trend 3 rd Step: Final View 1 + + + - + - + +++ 2 -- - - + - - - ------ 3 + - - + - + + + 4 ++ + + - + + + ++++++ 5 -- - - - - - - -------- 6 + + + + - + - +++ 7 - - - - - + - ----- 8 + + + + + - + +++++ 9 -- - + + + - - -- 10 - + - - - - - ----- 11 ++ + + + + + + ++++++++ 12 + + - + + + + +++++ 13 + - - - + + - - 14 ++ + + + - - - ++ Form a betting strategy for the four horses with the most net + marks in the Final View, i.e. No. 4, No. 8, No. 11 and No. 12 in the example 62