Exploring the influence of climate, competition and aquaculture on the dynamics of Fraser River sockeye salmon and the economics of their fisheries Yajie Liu, SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture, Norway Brendan Connors ESSA Technologies Ltd, Canada July 9, 2014 SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 1
Outline Research problem Methodological framework Results Discussion Limitations SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 2
Fraser River sockeye salmon - Ecological, social and economic importance - 200 + spawning locations - 18 stocks SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 3
Run timing Fishery management groups based on run timing for which target escapement Fisheries managed and exploitation by 4 composite rates stock are set groups Summer Late Abundance Early Stuart Early Summer June September SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 4
Harvest USA First Nation (food, culture & ceremony) Recreational fishing First Nation (econ. Opportunity) Commercial fishing SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 5
log e (recruits/spawner) The problem 16 recruits/spawner -2 0 2 4 1 recruit/spawner 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 6 Brood year
Causes Ocean conditions - SST Prey competition Pink salmon Aquaculture pathogens (?) SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 7
SST anomaly ( O C) SST Pink anomaly (100s millions) 5 6 Pink salmon abundance (millions) ECVI WCVI CC ECVI WCVI CC SST anomaly 0 + - 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Year SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 8
Farm production (1000s t) 48 49 50 51 52 40 50 60 70 Production (1000 t) Salmon farm tenure ECVI WCVI CC Fraser 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 9-130 -128-126 -124-122
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Marine Freshwater ( ) Competition Adult Eggs Sub adult Fry Pathogens (?) ( ) Smolt Oceanographic conditions SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture
Objectives Explore potential future influence of climate, competition and aquaculture on sockeye salmon in Fraser River; Examine the economic consequences of these stressors; SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture
Model framework US FN, recreational Catch & effort by comm. fishery Population dynamics Aquaculture Competitors Climate Mgmt. group Pre-spawn mortality Harvest control rule Stock-recruit model catch Cost Profit Troll Seine Gillnet Price SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture
Model framework 1) Built a salmon population model to generate future spawner-recruit time series with added environmental and anthropogenic factors; æ log e ç è 2) Estimated the potential influence of region-wide shared responses to SST, pink salmon abundance and aquaculture by fitting a modified hierarchical mixed-effects; æ log e ç è R i,t S i,t R i,t S i,t ö ø = a + b S + b S + b S + b S +di, E +e i i i,t 1,i i,t 2,i i,t 3,i i,t j i, j,t+x i,t ö ø = (m +a )+ b S +(m +d )E +e a i i i,t j i, j i, j,t+x i,t 3) Estimated catch and effort log e (E i,t ) = f + log e(y i,t )-qt -g log e (R t )+d i b 4) Measured profit P i,t = (r i Y i,t -(E i,t w i )-l i )(1-u) SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture
Simulation Scenarios Factor Scenario Description Climate (represented by SST at the ocean entry point in the winter preceding marine entry) Competition (represented by the abundance of potential North Pacific pink salmon competitors in the second year of marine life) Aquaculture (represented by farmed-salmon production along sockeye early marine migration routes) Status quo Increasing Decreasing Status quo Increasing Decreasing None Status quo Increasing Decreasing 1980-2010 average SST and interannual variability. SST under a high emission scenario (a1b_mirocmed). Decline in SST to 1960-1980 average. 2000-2010 average North Pacific pink salmon abundance and interannual variability. Gradual increase to 1.5 x 2000-2010 average North Pacific pink salmon abundance and interannual variability. Decline in North Pacific pink salmon abundance and interannual variability to competitors to 1980-1985 average. No farmed salmon production along early marine sockeye migration routes. 2005-2010 average aquaculture production and interannual variability. Increase to two x 2005-2010 average aquaculture production by 2025 1 and interannual variability after. Sharp decline SINTEF to Fisheries ~ no aquaculture and Aquaculture production.
sst anomaly ( o C ) -1 0 1 2 (a) Scenarios increasing status quo decreasing 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 pink salmon (millions) 200 400 600 800 (b) 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 farmed salmon (000s tons) 0 20 40 60 80 100 (c) 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 year SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture
Harvest rule and catch USA 16.5% First Nation (food, culture & ceremony) 1 Million Harvest rule / mgt adjustment Early Stuart Early Summ er Summ er Late ER floor 1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 TAM cap 2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Target 118 000 200 592 673 000 escapement 000 000 Management adjustment 0.623 0.022 0.436 0.054 0.078 0.015 log(0.31 1.03) Recreational fishing 5% First Nation (econ. Opportunity) 3.7% Commercial fishing Troll (5%) Seine (46.5%) Gillnet(48.5) SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 17
Too ensure target escapement is met and weak stocks are protected escg 0 50 150 250 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 Target escapement Exploitation rate Harvest control rule 0 100 200 300 400 500 run size 0 100 200 300 400 500 SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 18
pink salmon abundance pink salmon abundance (a) no open net-pen aquaculture 3.75 1.76 4.33 2.42 4.92 3.1 3.6 1.28 4.07 1.82 4.65 2.4 (c) declining open net-pen aquaculture 2.97 1.76 3.67 2.42 4.37 3.1 2.96 1.28 3.67 1.82 4.24 2.4 sea-surface temperature 2.761.92 3.072.79 3.573.35 2.351.92 3.02.79 3.573.35 (b) stable open net-pen aquaculture 2.3 1.76 3.13 2.42 3.96 3.1 2.24 1.28 3.02 1.82 3.72 2.4 (d) increasing open net-pen aquaculture 1.92 1.76 2.79 2.42 3.35 3.1 1.76 1.28 2.42 1.82 3.1 2.4 1.81 2.35 2.97 1.28 1.82 2.4 Recruitment SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 19 sea-surface temperature Greatest: Low competitors Low SST No aquaculture Lowest: High SST High competitors Increasing aquaculture production Increasing competitors vs. low SST Increasing SST vs. low competitors
(a) no open net-pen aquaculture (b) stable open net-pen aquaculture pink salmon abundance 0.29 0.24 1.86 1.75 0.29 2.24 1.99 0.24 0.19 1.75 1.22 0.29 0.48 1.99 1.46 0.19 0.29 1.221.86 0.480.29 1.462.24 0.290.24 0.97 1.75 0.62 0.29 1.45 1.99 0.33 0.19 0.94 1.22 0.67 0.48 1.42 1.46 0.38 0.29 0.64 0.71 1.01 0.62 Catch 0.14 2.52 2.33 0.14 2.33 1.74 0.14 0.24 1.742.52 0.240.14 1.98 2.33 0.14 1.84 1.74 0.24 1.35 0.33 (c) declining open net-pen aquaculture (d) increasing open net-pen aquaculture pink salmon abundance 0.29 0.24 0.14 1.39 1.75 0.38 0.29 1.8 1.99 0.24 0.19 2.29 2.33 0.14 1.39 1.22 0.43 0.48 1.82 1.46 0.19 0.29 2.25 1.74 0.19 0.24 sea-surface temperature 0.961.86 0.520.29 1.352.24 0.330.24 1.772.52 0.240.14 0.71 1.75 0.86 0.29 1.25 1.99 0.48 0.19 1.62 2.33 0.24 0.14 0.61 1.22 0.81 0.48 11.46 0.62 0.29 1.52 1.74 0.33 0.24 0.31 0.76 0.6 0.71 1 0.57 sea-surface temperature SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 20
2 pink salmon abundance pink salmon abundance (a) no open net-pen aquaculture 13.32 6.2 12.56 3.35 8.756.47 16.09 10.18 14.25 6.86 10.46 10.42 18.07 13.21 16.71 9.67 12.49 14.2 (c) declining open net-pen aquaculture 9.97 6.2 9.98 3.35 6.366.47 12.91 10.18 13.06 6.86 9.6810.42 16.46 13.21 16.12 9.67 12.72 14.2 sea-surface temperature (b) stable open net-pen aquaculture 6.47 6.2 10.42 10.18 14.2 13.21 6.2 3.35 10.18 6.86 13.21 9.67 (d) increasing open net-pen aquaculture 6.2 4.05 10.18 8.94 13.21 11.64 3.35 3.13 6.86 6.69 9.67 10.87 3.35 6.86 9.67 0.41 2.95 6.73 SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture sea-surface temperature Profit Greatest: Low competitors Low SST No aquaculture Lowest: High SST High competitors Increasing aquaculture production Increasing competitors vs. low SST Increasing SST vs. low competitors 21
-6.05-4.7-3.02-6.05-4.7-3.02 pink salmon abundance pink salmon abundance (a) stable open net-pen aquaculture -6.05-5.9-4.7-4.51-3.02-2.13-5.34-5.9-4.41-4.51-2.47-2.13 (c) Increasing open net-pen aquaculture -8.99-5.9-4.71-4.51-4.76-2.13-8.35-5.34-7.11-4.41-4.89-2.47 sea-surface temperature -5.34-6.05-4.41-4.7-2.47-3.02-7 -6.11-4.32 (b) declining open net-pen aquaculture -0.64-5.9-0.09-4.51-0.01-2.13-0.46-5.34-0.04-4.41 0.12-2.47 sea-surface temperature -0.72-0.1-0.01 Profit loss i) Greatest profit losses associated with salmon aquaculture when: The ocean was cool and Both an increasing competitors and salmon farms. ii) Impacts on profit: competition > SST > aquaculture SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 22
Concluding remarks Greatest impacts on recruitment, catch and profit when: the ocean early in marine life is warm, the number of salmon competitors later in marine life were high and there was increasing open net-pen salmon aquaculture production along juvenile sockeye salmon migration routes. Competition has the strongest impact Implications for policy and management: Wild salmon fisheries Aquaculture industry and its development SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 23
Limitations High uncertainties Fixed harvest rules used: Conservation goal: overestimated Social-economic goal: underestimated Fixed costs and prices No discounting Underestimated FN and recreational values As food fish SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 24
Empirical estimates of spawner recruitment (Ricker / Larkin) relationships and environmental covariates Draw parameter values from multivariate normal sampling distribution and variance covariance matrix plus residual error Select climate, competition and aquaculture production scenario and set annual values for each variable Predict recruits by brood year based on spawner-recruit function, environmental covariates and residual error; assign recruits to return year based on age structure Apply harvest control rule (with mgmt. adjustment for PSM) by mgmt. group Calculate catch by fishery and number of adults returning to spawn to each population Estimate fishing effort based on run size; calculate revenue, costs and profits for each fishery Repeat for 20 years Repeat for 1000 Monte Carlo trials Calculate median annual recruitment, catch, profits for each scenario for all populations SINTEF Fisheries and Aquaculture 25