Community Forum Scottsbluff

Community Forum Scottsbluff Jerry Deichert Center for Public Affairs Research University of Nebraska at Omaha December 3, 2013

State Population Summary In 2010, Nebraska had a population count of 1,826,341 persons, an increase of 115,076 or 6.7 percent from the 2000 count of 1,711,265 Nebraska ranked 30th in percentage change (an increase from 37th in 1990s) Nebraska growth rate was higher than Iowa and Kansas In 2012, Nebraska s population was 1,855,525 (+1.4% since 2010) Nebraska s growth rate of 6.7 percent in the 2000s was not as strong as the 8.4 percent rise seen in the 1990s However, it did exceed the average decade growth rate between 1950 and 2000 (5.3 percent) Congressional District boundaries were redrawn by the Unicameral Legislature 2

Population Change Rate (as a percent of total population at start of decade) Nebraska Population Change Rate by Decade: 1900s to 2000s 14.0 12.0 11.8 10.0 8.7 8.4 8.0 6.0 6.3 6.5 5.2 5.7 6.7 4.0 2.0 0.0 0.7 0.5-2.0-4.0-6.0-4.5 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Source: Decennial Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau Prepared by: Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO Decade 3

1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Population 2,000,000 Nebraska Population and Population Change, 1925-2012 Population 50,000 1,800,000 40,000 1,600,000 30,000 1,400,000 20,000 1,200,000 10,000 1,000,000 0 800,000 600,000 1985-1987 -10,000-20,000 400,000-30,000 200,000-40,000 0-50,000 Population Change Population Source: Annual Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau - released December 2012 Prepared by: Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO 4

5

County Population Summary 24 Nebraska counties gained population while 69 lost population between 2000 and 2010 Compares to 40 growing counties in the 1990s and only 10 in the 1980s 23 counties lost 10% or more of their population between 2000 and 2010 Nebraska s 3 most populous counties, Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy counties are among the state s fastest growing Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy accounted for 52.6 percent of Nebraska s population in 2010, up from 48.9 percent in 2000 These 3 counties grew 14.9 percent between 2000 and 2010 while the remaining 90 counties lost 1.1 percent 6

County Population Summary (Continued) Metropolitan (2013 definition) counties added population, but nonmetropolitan counties lost population Metropolitan 13.0% Nonmetropolitan -2.5% Micropolitan 1.3% Largest city 2,500 to 9,999 persons -4.4% Largest city under 2,500 persons -7.7% Nebraska s legislative districts also were redrawn with metro areas gaining more representation. Average legislative district size based on 2010 Census is 37,272 persons. Legislative district 49 was moved from Northwest Nebraska to Sarpy County. 7

1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Persons 1,300,000 Population of Nebraska Counties By Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Status (2013 Definitions): 1969-2012 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,000,000 900,000 800,000 700,000 600,000 Metro Nonmetro Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System, released November 26, 2012; US Census Bureau, Annual Estimates of the Population, released March, 2013 Prepared by: Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO, June 2013 8

9

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Persons Population and Population Change for 11 Panhandle Counties, 1970 to 2012 100,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 0-500 -1,000-1,500-2,000-2,500 Population Change Population Source: Annual Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Persons Population and Population Change for Scotts Bluff County, 1970 to 2012 40,000 39,000 38,000 37,000 36,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 35,000 34,000 33,000 32,000 31,000 30,000 0-500 -1,000-1,500-2,000-2,500 Population Change Population Source: Annual Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Listing of Nebraska Counties by Year of Highest Census Population Census Year (Number of Counties Having Highest Census Population) 1890 (10) 1900 (11) 1910 (12) 1920 (18) 1930 (21) 1940 (1) 1960 (2) 1980 (4) 2000 (2) 2010 (12) Banner Butler Boyd Antelope Boone Rock Cheyenne Box Butte Dawson Adams Clay Cuming Franklin Arthur Burt Kimball Keith Madison Buffalo Fillmore Frontier Harlan Blaine Cedar Lincoln Cass Gage Furnas Howard Brown Chase Scotts Bluff Dakota Hamilton Gosper Jefferson Cherry Dawes Dodge Hayes Johnson Loup Colfax Deuel Douglas Keya Paha Kearney McPherson Custer Dundy Hall Otoe Nemaha Nance Dixon Garden Lancaster Polk Pawnee Sioux Garfield Hitchcock Platte Saline Phelps Thayer Grant Knox Sarpy Saunders Webster Greeley Logan Seward York Holt Morrill Washington Hooker Perkins Merrick Pierce Nuckolls Red Willow Thomas Richardson Valley Sheridan Wheeler Sherman Stanton Thurston Wayne 12

Natural Change Natural Change = Births - Deaths 2011 births were 25,704 3rd year of decline Lowest number since 2002 Preliminary numbers show slight increase in 2012 2000 to 2010 Much of the decade population growth stemmed from about 109,500 more births than deaths The 2000s natural change rate of 6.4 percent was higher than the 1990s (5.4 percent) 44 counties had more deaths than births 14

1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Number Nebraska Births, Deaths, and Natural Change: 1920-2011 40,000 35,000 30,000 Silent Generation 1925-1945 Baby Boom 1946-1964 Generation X Baby Bust 1965-1976 Generation Y Baby Boom Echo Millennials 1977-1994(?) Generation Z Internet Generation 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services Births Deaths Natural Change

16

1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Births Births for Scotts Bluff County and 11 Panhandle Counties, 1946 to 2012 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Scotts Bluff Region Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services

1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Persons Births, Deaths, and Natural Change (Births-Deaths) for 11 Panhandle Counties, 1946 to 2012 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0-500 Births Deaths Natural change Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services

1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Persons Births, Deaths, and Natural Change (Births-Deaths) for Scotts Bluff County, 1946 to 2012 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Births Deaths Natural change Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services

1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Persons 40,000 Potential Population Aged 5 to 17 Years Based on Births for 11 Panhandle Counties, 1963 to 2017 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services Note: population aged 5 to 17 in 2017 would have been born between 2000 and 2012

1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Persons 14,000 Potential Population Aged 5 to 17 Years Based on Births for Scotts Bluff County, 1963 to 2017 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services Note: population aged 5 to 17 in 2017 would have been born between 2000 and 2012

Net Migration 2010 to 2012 inmigration was 3,977 International 6,485 Domestic -2,508 2000 to 2010 The state experienced a net inmigration of about 5,600 persons The 2000s net migration rate of 0.3 percent was below a 3.1 percent inmigration in the 1990s The 1990s and 2000s are the only decades since 1930 to have net inmigration Only 14 counties had net inmigration 1990 to 2000 Added about 48,000 persons during the decade (3.1 percent) 42 counties had net inmigration or no net outmigration 22

Migration Rate (as a percent of total population at start of decade) Nebraska Net Migration Rate by Decade: 1920s to 2000s 4.0 3.1 2.0 0.0 0.3-2.0-0.9-4.0-6.0-8.0-6.6-5.2-6.4-10.0-9.8-8.7-12.0-14.0-12.7 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Sources: Decennial Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau; Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services Decade 23

1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Persons Nebraska Components of Population Change, 1930-2012 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0-10,000 1991-1999 -20,000-30,000-40,000-50,000-60,000 Net Migration Natural Change

25

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Persons Natural Change and Net Migration for 11 Panhandle Counties, 1970 to 2012 1,000 500 0-500 -1,000-1,500-2,000-2,500 Net migration Natural change Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services Annual Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Persons Natural Change and Net Migration for Scotts Bluff County, 1970 to 2012 1,000 500 0-500 -1,000-1,500-2,000-2,500 Net migration Natural change Source: Vital Statistics Reports, Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services Annual Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau

Net Migration Rate (%) Net Migration Rate by Age for Scotts Bluff County, 2000-2010 (Overall Net Migration Rate = - 2.9%) 10.0 5.0 0.0-5.0-2.9-1.4-3.0-2.4 4.0-1.0 0.0 1.4-1.0-0.4-1.3-0.3 2.7 1.7 0.3 2.5-10.0-15.0-16.3-20.0-19.8-25.0 Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85+ Sources: 2000 and 2010 Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Births and Deaths by Single Year of Age, NE Dept of HHS Age Group Compiled and Prepared by: David Drozd, UNO Center for Public Affairs Research

Net Migration Rate (%) Net Migration Rate by Age for 11 Nebraska Panhandle Counties, 2000-2010 (Overall Net Migration Rate = - 4.4%) 5.0 0.0-5.0 0.9 2.8 1.4 0.5 1.9 3.2 1.6-1.1-0.7-1.0 0.5-0.4 0.5-1.4 0.7-10.0-9.4-15.0-20.0-25.0-23.7-30.0-30.7-35.0 Under 5 5 to 9 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84 85+ Sources: 2000 and 2010 Censuses, U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Births and Deaths by Single Year of Age, NE Dept of HHS Age Group Compiled and Prepared by: David Drozd, UNO Center for Public Affairs Research