Presentation to the Isle of Wight County Board of Supervisors Growth Trends in Hampton Roads Hampton Roads Planning District Commission Greg Grootendorst Chief Economist September 19, 2014 Looking to 2040 2012 REGIONAL FORECAST
WHAT IS THE HRPDC 1 of 21 Regional Planning Agencies State enabled; locally created 10 Cities, 6 Counties, 1 Town; 1.7 million people; 3,000 square miles; 5,000 miles shoreline Commission 45 local elected officials & CAOs Staff Executive Director & 45 staff Funding Local contributions, grants and contracts Functions Economics, Housing, Transportation, Environmental, Emergency Management Budget $16,000,000 + Role Policy & Technical Analysis, Planning & Engineering Studies, Cooperative Problem Solving, Coordination Hampton Roads Transportation Planning Organization 2
1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Historic Population Growth 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 84.1% growth since 1960 Annualized growth rate of 1.16% 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 3
Number of Persons Components of Population Growth 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 (5,000) (10,000) (15,000) Births, Deaths, and Net Migration in Hampton Roads Births Deaths Net Migration 4
Population Growth from 1960-1990 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% Hampton Roads Average 0% -50% 5
Population Growth from 1990-2013 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Hampton Roads Average 0% -20% 6
1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% Annualized Population Growth Over the Past Decade 0.0% Isle of Wight Virginia United States Hampton Roads 7
1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Population Growth in Isle of Wight 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 8
Population added per Decade in Isle of Wight 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 9
Forecast for 2040 Population Employment by place of work Retail Industrial Office Other Households Employment by place of residence Passenger Vehicle Registrations 10
Forecast Methodology Regional Control Totals 1. Literature Review of Forecasting Techniques 2. Review Best Practices 3. Data Collection Raw Data Locality Data Research Assumptions Model Inputs 4. Produce Draft Control Totals 5. Produce Draft Jurisdiction Totals 6. Review Draft with Planning Staff/LRTP Subcommittee 11
Forecast Methodologies Literature Review & Best Practices Techniques Extrapolation Ratio Cohort Structural Best Practices Diverse methodologies Iterative process Top Down / Bottom Up Dynamic / Structural Evidence Suggests: Forecast Accuracy Increases with Population Size Increases with slow steady positive growth rates Declines over time 12
Location of 2040 Households 1 Dot = 100 Households 13
Location of 2040 Employment 1 Dot = 100 Employees 14
Change in Households, 2009 to 2040 1 Dot = 100 Household Increase 1 Dot = 100 Household Decrease 15
Change in Employment, 2009 to 2040 1 Dot = 100 Employee Increase 1 Dot = 100 Employee Decrease 16
Total Population 2040 2040 Population Peninsula 583,000 East Southside 875,466 West Southside 533,534 Total 1,992,000 17
Total Employment 2040 2040 Total Employment Peninsula 375,401 East Southside 646,212 West Southside 230,988 Total 1,252,600 18
Portion of Population Growth 2040 2009 Population 2040 Population Projected Growth Peninsula 519,124 583,000 63,876 East Southside 763,861 875,466 111,605 West Southside 344,289 533,534 189,245 Total 1,627,274 1,992,000 364,726 19
Portion of Employment Growth 2009 Total Employment 2040 Total Employment Projected Growth Peninsula 316,607 375,401 58,794 East Southside 567,203 646,212 79,009 West Southside 156,008 230,988 74,981 Total 1,039,818 1,252,601 212,783 20
Change in Households, 2009 to 2040 Isle of Wight 1 Dot = 10 Household Increase 1 Dot = 10 Household Decrease 21
Change in Employment, 2009 to 2040 Isle of Wight 1 Dot = 10 Household Increase 1 Dot = 10 Household Decrease 22
Projected Population Growth 2010-2040 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0-20,000 23
Projected Population Growth Rate 2010-2040 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Hampton Roads Average 0% -20% 24
Projected Employment Growth 2010-2040 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 25
Projected Employment Growth Rate 2010-2040 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% Hampton Roads Average 20% 0% 26
What DRIVES Population Growth at Space Schools Quality & perception Employment Access & opportunity Affordability Relative housing costs Amenities Transportation Access and options Quality of Life the Local Level 27
Conclusion Isle of Wight has experienced strong growth in recent years Population and employment forecasts suggest that Isle of Wight will continue to experience very strong growth in the coming years Real estate, education, employment, affordability and quality of life are important factors in determining the extent of growth 28
Questions Greg Grootendorst Hampton Roads Planning District Commission ggrootendorst@hrpdcva.gov 757.420.8300 29