Multidimensional Analysis of Macro Sustainability of Russia: New Methods for Measuring Progress Dr Stanislav Shmelev, Senior Research Fellow, Oxford University, UK E-mail: s.shmelev@ouce.ox.ac.uk Tel: +44 7729 733366 OECD Forum Moscow, 2008
Russia is the largest country in the world with the total area 17 075 400 square kilometres (over 6.5 million square miles). The territory of Russia spans through 11 times zones. Russia borders with Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Poland, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Mongolia, China and North Korea by land, and with Sweden, Turkey, Japan and the USA by sea. Total population is about 144.7 mln people, with about 72.9% urban population.
UN Framework Indicators of Sustainable Development Theme Sub-theme Indicator SOCIAL Equity Poverty Gini Index of Income Inequality Unemployment Unemployment Mortality Life Expectancy at Birth Population Population Change Population Growth Rate ENVIRONMENTAL Atmosphere Climate Change Emissions of Greenhouse Gases Fresh Water Water Quality BOD in Water Bodies ECONOMIC Economic Structure Economic Performance GDP per Capita Consumption and Production Patterns Energy Use Annual Energy Consumption per Capita INSTITUTIONAL Energy Use Waste Generation and Management Share of Consumption of Renewable Energy Resources Generation of Industrial and Municipal Solid Waste Institutional Capacity Science and Technology Expenditure on Research and Development as a Percent of GDP
Analysis of Sustainability Economic dimension 1 2 10 7 3 6 9 5 8 Social dimension 4 1. Gini Index of income inequality 2. Unemployment rate 3. Life expectancy at birth 4. Population change 5. CO2 emissions 6. Water quality 7. Income 8. Energy consumption 9. Renewable sources of energy supply 10. Expenditure in R&D Environmental dimension
Economy (1990-2004) Indicator 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 GDP, annual changes, % -13-14.5-8.7-12.6-4.1-3.5 0.9-4.9 5.4 9.0 5.0 4.3 7.3 Inflation, CPI, % 161 2510 840 220 131.3 21.8 11.1 84.4 36.5 20.2 18.6 15.1 12 Unemployment, % 5.2 5.8 7.9 9.2 9.3 11.5 13 12.3 9.4 8.5 8.8 5.9 Starting in 1989, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic (RSFSR), and successor Russian Federation, declined continuously until 1997, when a rise of 0.9 percent was recorded. The drop in output by century-end was about 42 percent a far steeper fall than was recorded during the Great Depression in the United States in the early 1930s. The GDP in amounted to 7,063 billion rubles ($250.5 billion at the average exchange rate of 28.2 rubles/dollar), and an estimated $1,143 billion at purchasing power parity. 15 10 5 0-5 -10-15 -20 GDP annual change, Russia, 1990-2006, % 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 UN Economic Commission of Europe, Economic Survey of Europe, 2005, N2, Statistical Appendix
2004 2003 2003 2002 GDP per Capita 3000 2500 1500 1000 500 0 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Unemployment Rate 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 1991 1990 2003 2004 2002 Economy (1990-2004) 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 Annual Energy Consumption per Capita 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Share of Cons umption of Renew able Energy Res ourc es 2003 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 1991 1990 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001
Economy: GDP across sectors and regions Gross Regional Product, Russia, 2002, mln. Rub.
Economy and Society Earnings, Income Gini Index of Income Inequality, 1991-2003, Russia 0,45 0,4 0,35 0,409 0,381 0,375 0,381 0,399 0,394 0,396 0,398 0,4 Human Development Indicators 2003 Population living on less than 1$ per day (1990-2001): 6.1% Population living on less than 2$ per day(1990-2001): 23.8% Population living on less than 4$ per day(1996-99): 53% Population living below the median income: 20.1% Gini index: 45.6 UN Human Development Report 0,3 0,26 0,25 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 Poverty was halved from 1999 to 2003, UN Human Development Report, 2005
Economy and Society Economy and Society Life Expectancy at Birth 1958-59, 1961-62, 1963-64, 1965-2002 75 70 65 60 55 Adult mortality (per 1000), 2002 - adult mortality risk, which is defined as the probability of dying between 15 and 59 years: Males: 464 Females: 168 It is the highest value of all countries in WHO European Region Life Expectancy at Birth (years) 1958-59 1961-62 1963-64 1965-66 1966-67 1967-68 1968-69 1969-70 1970-71 1971-72 1972-73 1973-74 1974-75 1975-76 1976-77 1977-78 1978-79 1979-80 1980-81 1981-82 1982-83 1983-84 1984-85 1985-86 1986-87 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 Female Male Year Births, Deaths, and Natural Increase in Population: 1960, 1965-2002 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0-500,000-1,000,000 Russia fell 48 places in world life expectancy ranking from 1990 to 2003. (UN Human Development Report, 2003). Population 1960 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Births Deaths Natural Increase Year 1999 2001 2002
Economy and Society Expenditure on Research and Development as a Percent of GDP 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004
Sustainability Analysis Human Development Index, Russia, 1980-2003 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 Human Development Index Life expectancy index Education index GDP index 0,2 0 1980 1985 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003
Sustainability Analysis Adjusted Net Saving, excluding PM10 damage, Russia, 1995-2004, % of GNI 10,00 5,00 0,00-5,00-10,00 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 Adjusted Net Saving, excluding PM10 damage -15,00-20,00
Sustainability Analysis: ASPID MCE: 1995-2003, GDP per capita, CO2 emissions, Life expectancy Current policy priorities
Sustainability Analysis MCE: 1995-2003, GDP per capita, CO2 emissions, Life expectancy More humanistic policy priorities
Sustainability Analysis MCE: 1995-2003, 8 criteria: Economic: GDP per capita, TPES per capita, Share of Renewables, Investment in R&D Environmental: CO2 emissions Social: Life expectancy; GINI, Unemployment Current policy priorities
Sustainability Analysis MCE: 1995-2003, 8 criteria: Economic: GDP per capita, TPES per capita, Share of Renewables, Investment in R&D Environmental: CO2 emissions Social: Life expectancy; GINI, Unemployment More humanistic policy priorities
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