IIFET 2014 Conference, 7-11 July 2014, Brisbane, Australia Exploring fisheries dynaics according to different quota governance echaniss: application to the bay of Biscay coon sole fishery Manuel Bellanger, Claire Macher, Mathieu Merzéréaud, Olivier Guyader IFREMER, UMR AMURE
Outline Introduction Governance syste of bay of Biscay sole quota Methods for ipact assessent and governance scenarios Preliinary results of bio-econoic ipacts of alternative governance systes Conclusions / perspectives 2
Introduction French context Gradual transfer of copetence (including quota anageent) to Producer Organizations (POs) Fishing rights are not transferable Evolution of quota anageent in response to constraining quotas => PO ergers & IQ systes 3 Issues addressed: understanding quota anageent syste evolutions and anticipating their bio-econoic ipacts What are the effects of quota governance on fisheries dynaics including distributive effects? Present work follows Macher et al. 2013 where quota arkets were tested and investigates the effects of quota anageent by POs
Introduction Case study: bay of Biscay coon sole fishery 450 vessels > 1 Ton 1400 fisheren Landings = 4600 Tons (2011) GR 191 illion euros (2011) Other fleets 75 Nephrops trawlers Sole landings 2008 (projet Gepeto) France 161 Mixed botto trawlers Innovative quota anageent (IQ since 2006) 120 Sole gillnetters 34 Mixed gillnetters 4 Spain
Governance syste of bay of Biscay sole quota Meber State share based on a relative stability key Quota share by PO based on historical landings (2001-2003) of their ebers. 5 Larabi et al. 2013 Manageent by POs: collective and/or individual quota allocation based on a collective-pooling anageent syste specific for each PO
Governance syste of bay of Biscay sole quota Manageent by POs: Individual vs Collective quotas 2006: Individual Quotas = 20% TAC 2011: Individual Quotas = 65% TAC Evolution towards IQ systes as TACs becoe ore and ore constraining Adinistration s deands for ore transparency + PO ergers Probable hoogenisation of 6 PO Sub-groups Quota anageent Allocation criteria PMA Trawlers and gillnetters vessels Mean production by Individual quotas with production >2 t vessel 2004-2006 Trawlers and gillnetters vessels Individual quotas Package of 2 t by vessel with production <2t Large gillnetters<18 Individual quotas Package of 18 t by vessel OPOB Large gillnetters>18 Individual quotas Package of 26 t by vessel Other fleets Collective quotas Noiroutier All vessels Collective quotas Vendée All vessels Collective quotas Yeu All vessels Collective quotas Fro Sud- Ouest Gillnetters fro royan fleet Other fleets Individual quotas Collective quota La Côtinière All vessels Individual quotas ArcaCoop CapSud Vessels outside the Arcachon Basin Vessels inside the basin Vessels targeting sole Other vessels by-catching sole Individual quotas Collective quota Individual quotas Collective quota Historical basis 2001-2003 Historical basis 2001-2003 and ean landings 2008-2010 Max landings in the last 10 years by vessel Historical basis 2001-2003 Quota anageent and allocation criteria by PO (2011) Map of Bay of Biscay POs (France)
Governance syste of bay of Biscay sole quota POs & ergers: In 2011: 9 POs operating in the Bay of Biscay On-going PO ergers Short ter probable situation 7
Governance syste of bay of Biscay sole quota POs & ergers: In 2011: 9 POs operating in the Bay of Biscay On-going PO ergers Short ter probable situation 7
Methods for ipact assessent 1 An algorith for collective and individual quota allocations Adaptable rules by PO or by set of POs (erger) 2 An aged-structured bio-econoic odel: IAM (Macher et al. 2013) Multi-species, Multi-étier, vessel-scale odel Inputs files based on DCF data and stock assessent outputs Siulation/optiization The odel adjusts individual fishing efforts to atch quota allocations derived fro the algorith 8
Methods for ipact assessent Inputs: 392 vessels individually odelled (+ Fother fleets): effort, production and econoic costs structure Nephrops and sole paraeters for stocks dynaics Price for sole Quotas & sub-quotas by POs, vessels track records, PO eberships 9 Outputs: Indicators on the stock status: Bioass Fishing ortality Landings-Catches Indicators on the vessels activity Distribution of effort on étier sole for active vessels Indicators of econoic perforances (at fleet & vessel levels) Gross value added Gross cash flow
Methods for ipact assessent 4 scenarios: Current nuber of POs & Current quota PO ergers & Hoogenisation of Quota TAC 4100 T Scenario 1.0 Scenario 1.1 TAC 3800 T Scenario 2.0 Scenario 2.1 10
Methods for ipact assessent 4 scenarios: Current nuber of POs & Current quota PO ergers & Hoogenisation of Quota Constant TAC of sole 4100 t fro 2013 (MSY in 2020, 50% probability) TAC 4100 T Scenario 1.0 Scenario 1.1 TAC 3800 T Scenario 2.0 Scenario 2.1 Constant TAC of sole 3800 t until 2016, MSY exploitation afterwards 10
Methods for ipact assessent 4 scenarios: Current nuber of POs & Current quota PO ergers & Hoogenisation of Quota Constant TAC of sole 4100 t fro 2013 (MSY in 2020, 50% probability) TAC 4100 T Scenario 1.0 Scenario 1.1 TAC 3800 T Scenario 2.0 Scenario 2.1 Constant TAC of sole 3800 t until 2016, MSY exploitation afterwards Current situation: 9 POs and their current quota Short ter probable situation: 4 POs and hoogenisation of quota (IQ) 10
Preliinary results Stock status: Sole landings Current nuber of POs & Current quota PO ergers & Hoogenisation of Quota TAC 4100 T Scenario 1.0 Scenario 1.1 TAC 3800 T Scenario 2.0 Scenario 2.1 Landings (T) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Year SSB Sole Fbar Sole Aggregation level: Entire fleet Fleet segent Fleet segent * PO Vessel SSB (T) 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Fbar 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 11 Year Year
Preliinary results Effort & econoic perforances: Current nuber of POs & Current quota PO ergers & Hoogenisation of Quota TAC 4100 T Scenario 1.0 Scenario 1.1 TAC 3800 T Scenario 2.0 Scenario 2.1 Days at sea 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000 Total effort 'Sole etier' 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Year Average Gross Cash Flow (GCF) Viability: % of vessels with GCF > 0 Aggregation level: Entire fleet Fleet segent Fleet segent * PO Vessel GCF (k ) 45 50 55 60 65 Viability (%) 70 75 80 85 12 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Year 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Year
Effort (Days at Sea) Preliinary results Effort & econoic perforances: Current nuber of POs & Current quota PO ergers & Hoogenisation of Quota TAC 4100 T Scenario 1.0 Scenario 1.1 TAC 3800 T Scenario 2.0 Scenario 2.1 Total effort Sole etier by fleet segent Nephrops dependant trawlers Nephrops low dependant trawlers Mixed botto trawlers Mixed gillnetters Sole gillnetters Aggregation level: Entire fleet Fleet segent Fleet segent * PO Vessel 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 13 2012 2016 2020 2012 2016 2020 2012 2016 2020 2012 2016 2020 2012 2016 2020
Preliinary results Effort & econoic perforances: Current nuber of POs & Current quota PO ergers & Hoogenisation of Quota TAC 4100 T Scenario 1.0 Scenario 1.1 Days at sea 45000 50000 55000 60000 65000 Total effort 'Sole etier' TAC 3800 T Scenario 2.0 Scenario 2.1 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Year Aggregation level: Entire fleet Fleet segent Fleet segent * PO Vessel 14 Sole gillnetters Mixed gillnetters Mixed botto trawlers Nephrops low dependant trawlers Nephrops dependant trawlers > 20 16-20 12-16 10-12 0-10 10-12 0-10 > 20 16-20 12-16 10-12 0-10 > 20 16-20 12-16 10-12 0-10 16-20 12-16 10-12 Fileyeurs_Sole_20_xx Fileyeurs_Sole_16_20 Fileyeurs_Sole_12_16 Fileyeurs_Sole_10_12 Fileyeurs_Sole_0_10 Fileyeurs_Mixtes_10_12 Fileyeurs_Mixtes_0_10 Chalutiers_Mixtes_20_xx Chalutiers_Mixtes_16_20 Chalutiers_Mixtes_12_16 Chalutiers_Mixtes_10_12 Chalutiers_Mixtes_0_10 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_20_xx Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_16_20 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_12_16 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_10_12 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_0_10 Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_16_20 Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_12_16 Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_10_12 Effort by Fleet segent-po in 2014 PMA OPOB OPPAN OP ILE D YEU OP VENDEE OP LA COTINIERE FROM SUD-OUEST ARCA-COOP CAPSUD-OP Hors OP Days at sea 6000 Fileyeurs_Sole_20_xx Fileyeurs_Sole_16_20 Fileyeurs_Sole_12_16 Fileyeurs_Sole_10_12 Fileyeurs_Sole_0_10 Fileyeurs_Mixtes_10_12 Fileyeurs_Mixtes_0_10 Chalutiers_Mixtes_20_xx Chalutiers_Mixtes_16_20 Chalutiers_Mixtes_12_16 3000 Chalutiers_Mixtes_10_12 Chalutiers_Mixtes_0_10 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_20_xx Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_16_20 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_12_16 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_10_12 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_0_10 Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_16_20 Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_12_16 0 Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_10_12 Effort by Fleet segent-po in 2014 > 20 16-20 12-16 10-12 0-10 10-12 PMA OPOB OPPAN OP ILE D YEU OP VENDEE OP LA COTINIERE FROM SUD-OUEST ARCA-COOP CAPSUD-OP Hors OP Days at sea 6000 3000 0
Preliinary results Effort & econoic perforances: Current nuber of POs & Current quota PO ergers & Hoogenisation of Quota TAC 4100 T Scenario 1.0 Scenario 1.1 TAC 3800 T Scenario 2.0 Scenario 2.1 (Effort Scenario 1.1) - (Effort Scenario 1.0) by Fleet segent-po in 2014 Difference (Days at sea) Fileyeurs_Sole_20_xx > 20 Sole Fileyeurs_Sole_16_20 16-20 gillnettersfileyeurs_sole_12_16 12-16 +1000 Fileyeurs_Sole_10_12 10-12 Fileyeurs_Sole_0_10 0-10 Mixed Fileyeurs_Mixtes_10_12 10-12 gillnettersfileyeurs_mixtes_0_10 0-10 +500 Chalutiers_Mixtes_20_xx > 20 Chalutiers_Mixtes_16_20 16-20 Mixed botto Chalutiers_Mixtes_12_16 12-16 trawlers 0 Chalutiers_Mixtes_10_12 10-12 Chalutiers_Mixtes_0_10 0-10 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_20_xx > 20 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_16_20 16-20 -500 Nephrops Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_12_16 low 12-16 dependant trawlers Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_10_12 10-12 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_0_10 0-10 Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_16_20 16-20 -1000 Nephrops Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_12_16 12-16 dependant trawlers Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_10_12 10-12 PMA OPOB OPPAN OP ILE D YEU OP VENDEE OP LA COTINIERE FROM SUD-OUEST ARCA-COOP CAPSUD-OP Hors OP Aggregation level: Entire fleet Fleet segent Fleet segent * PO Vessel 14 Sole gillnetters Mixed gillnetters Mixed botto trawlers Nephrops low dependant trawlers Nephrops dependant trawlers > 20 16-20 12-16 10-12 0-10 10-12 0-10 > 20 16-20 12-16 10-12 0-10 > 20 16-20 12-16 10-12 0-10 16-20 12-16 10-12 Fileyeurs_Sole_20_xx Fileyeurs_Sole_16_20 Fileyeurs_Sole_12_16 Fileyeurs_Sole_10_12 Fileyeurs_Sole_0_10 Fileyeurs_Mixtes_10_12 Fileyeurs_Mixtes_0_10 Chalutiers_Mixtes_20_xx Chalutiers_Mixtes_16_20 Chalutiers_Mixtes_12_16 Chalutiers_Mixtes_10_12 Chalutiers_Mixtes_0_10 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_20_xx Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_16_20 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_12_16 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_10_12 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_0_10 Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_16_20 Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_12_16 Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_10_12 Effort by Fleet segent-po in 2014 PMA OPOB OPPAN OP ILE D YEU OP VENDEE OP LA COTINIERE FROM SUD-OUEST ARCA-COOP CAPSUD-OP Hors OP Days at sea 6000 Fileyeurs_Sole_20_xx Fileyeurs_Sole_16_20 Fileyeurs_Sole_12_16 Fileyeurs_Sole_10_12 Fileyeurs_Sole_0_10 Fileyeurs_Mixtes_10_12 Fileyeurs_Mixtes_0_10 Chalutiers_Mixtes_20_xx Chalutiers_Mixtes_16_20 Chalutiers_Mixtes_12_16 3000 Chalutiers_Mixtes_10_12 Chalutiers_Mixtes_0_10 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_20_xx Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_16_20 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_12_16 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_10_12 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_0_10 Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_16_20 Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_12_16 0 Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_10_12 Effort by Fleet segent-po in 2014 > 20 16-20 12-16 10-12 0-10 10-12 PMA OPOB OPPAN OP ILE D YEU OP VENDEE OP LA COTINIERE FROM SUD-OUEST ARCA-COOP CAPSUD-OP Hors OP Days at sea 6000 3000 0
Preliinary results Effort & econoic perforances: Current nuber of POs & Current quota PO ergers & Hoogenisation of Quota TAC 4100 T Scenario 1.0 Scenario 1.1 TAC 3800 T Scenario 2.0 Scenario 2.1 (Effort Scenario 1.1) - (Effort Scenario 1.0) by Fleet segent-po in 2014 Difference (Days at sea) Fileyeurs_Sole_20_xx > 20 Sole Fileyeurs_Sole_16_20 16-20 gillnettersfileyeurs_sole_12_16 12-16 +1000 Fileyeurs_Sole_10_12 10-12 Fileyeurs_Sole_0_10 0-10 Mixed Fileyeurs_Mixtes_10_12 10-12 gillnettersfileyeurs_mixtes_0_10 0-10 +500 Chalutiers_Mixtes_20_xx > 20 Chalutiers_Mixtes_16_20 16-20 Mixed botto Chalutiers_Mixtes_12_16 12-16 trawlers 0 Chalutiers_Mixtes_10_12 10-12 Chalutiers_Mixtes_0_10 0-10 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_20_xx > 20 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_16_20 16-20 -500 Nephrops Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_12_16 low 12-16 dependant trawlers Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_10_12 10-12 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_0_10 0-10 Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_16_20 16-20 -1000 Nephrops Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_12_16 12-16 dependant trawlers Chalutiers_Langoustiniers_10_12 10-12 PMA OPOB OPPAN OP ILE D YEU OP VENDEE OP LA COTINIERE FROM SUD-OUEST ARCA-COOP CAPSUD-OP Hors OP (Effort Scenario 1.1) - (Effort Scenario 1.0) PO = OP VENDEE Aggregation level: Entire fleet Fleet segent Fleet segent * PO Vessel 15 Difference (Days at sea) -150-100 -50 0 50 100 150 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_10_12 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_12_16 Chalutiers_Ln_peu_dep_20_xx Chalutiers_Mixtes_0_10 Chalutiers_Mixtes_10_12 Chalutiers_Mixtes_12_16 Fileyeurs_Sole_0_10 Fileyeurs_Sole_10_12 Fileyeurs_Sole_12_16
Preliinary results Overview Does the governance have the potential to soften the loss in a quota diinution context? In average: Yes In ters of variance: Yes as well! PO ergers & hoogenisation of quota : Who is winning? Who is losing? North bay of Biscay POs: large sole gillnetters (>16) would give up quota shares to sall gillnetters and to trawlers South bay of Biscay POs: soe would suffer fro ergers, and viability ay be a concern in a quota diinution context 16
Conclusion Results highlight inter- and intra-group differences in ters of effort and econoic perforances according to alternative governance scenarios Fleet structuration in ters of POs + their quota anageent systes have significant ipacts on fisheries dynaics Perspectives Developent of the governance odel: PO dynaics (ergers) and PO behaviour to be explicitely odelled 17 Modelling the behaviour of producers: etier choices, adjustent of capacity, copliance with rules
18 Thank you for your attention