Export market challenges and opportunities for southern grain producers Ross Kingwell
Take Home Messages In wheat, face up to even more export competition. Find sources of additional value within or outside the farm business.
Most of our grain is sold for export So what happens on global markets matters
The global scene for grains: where we ve been and where are we heading
Change in world area of selected crops since 2000 Sunflower Sugarcane Wheat Oil Palm Rapeseed Rice
Change in world area of selected crops since 2000 Sunflower Sugarcane Wheat Oil Palm Rapeseed Rice Soybean Corn 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Million hectares
Annual growth in demand for all crops by end use 25% Annual percentage growth 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Food Feed Fuel 1990s 2000s 2010s
Annual growth in demand for all crops by end use 25% Annual percentage growth 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Food Feed Fuel 1990s 2000s 2010s
Annual growth in demand for all crops by end use 25% Annual percentage growth 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Food Feed Fuel 1990s 2000s 2010s
Change in grain prices since 2000 210 Index: Average prices 2000-2016 = 100 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 Jan-00Jul-01 Jan-03Jul-04 Jan-06Jul-07 Jan-09Jul-10 Jan-12Jul-13 Jan-15Jul-16 Corn/Maize Soybeans Rapeseed Wheat Brent Crude
Change in grain prices since 2000 210 Index: Average prices 2000-2016 = 100 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 Jan-00Jul-01 Jan-03Jul-04 Jan-06Jul-07 Jan-09Jul-10 Jan-12Jul-13 Jan-15Jul-16 Corn/Maize Soybeans Rapeseed Wheat Brent Crude
Change in oil prices and grain prices since 2000 210 Index: Average prices 2000-2016 = 100 180 150 120 90 60 30 0 Jan-00Jul-01 Jan-03Jul-04 Jan-06Jul-07 Jan-09Jul-10 Jan-12Jul-13 Jan-15Jul-16 Corn/Maize Soybeans Rapeseed Wheat Brent Crude
Market challenges A world currently awash with wheat
Market challenges A world currently awash with wheat Current wheat price $US3.85/bu $A185/t Last year $US4.89/bu $A234/t Last 5 years $US6.55/bu $A313/t The current price is about 40% lower than the average over the last 5 years!!
What s happening to Wheat Imports? Global wheat imports Million metric tons 200 150 Other Southeast Asia Middle East Other Africa 1 100 Egypt NAFTA 50 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2026 Lat Am EU, FSU, & OE 2 East Asia 1 Africa, excluding Egypt. 2 European Union, former Soviet Union, and Other Europe. Includes intra-fsu trade.
What s projected for Wheat Imports? Global wheat imports Million metric tons 200 150 Other Southeast Asia Middle East Other Africa 1 100 Egypt 50 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2026 NAFTA Lat Am EU, FSU, & OE East Asia 2 1 Africa, excluding Egypt. 2 European Union, former Soviet Union, and Other Europe. Includes intra-fsu trade.
What s happening with Wheat Exports? Global wheat exports Million metric tons 200 150 100 Other 1 FSU & OE EU Australia Argentina 50 Canada 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2026 1 Former Soviet Union and Other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia. United States
What s projected for Wheat Exports? Global wheat exports Million metric tons 200 Other 1 FSU & OE 150 EU 100 Australia Argentina 50 Canada 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2026 United States 1 Former Soviet Union and Other Europe; prior to 1999, includes Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia.
Understand our export competition Black Sea (Russia, Ukraine & Kazakhstan) is increasing its market share. Argentina is increasing its market share. These countries are sources of low-cost, often lower quality wheat. Australia is increasingly less price competitive.
What can Australian farmers do?
Opportunities? How to make more money out of wheat? Farm business changes Economies of size Intensification (crop grazing, new pastures, grain parcelling at harvest) Soil amelioration Adopt practices and technologies that deliver profits or de-risk the business
Opportunities? How to make more money out of wheat? Off-farm activity Supply chain cost efficiency. Demand government investment in infrastructure, social services and R&D. Value-adding or de-risking activity.
Value-adding wheat options? 1. New uses for Off-grade Australian Noodle Wheat (ANW2) and low protein Australian Standard White (ASW) Are these wheats suitable for Asian cakes and biscuits. New uses help reduce the cliff-face in ANW pricing and help maintain ANW prices. 2. Use downgraded wheat and barley in animal feed mills and feedlots (i.e. value-add to the grain)
Find more uses for off-grade ANW; a valueadding option? WA is the only Australian supplier for Udon noodle Western Australian ASW blend (=ANW+APW) ANW production over last 10 years in WA Highest ~ 2 mt (2003/4) Oversupply Lowest ~ 0.45 mt (2010/11) Undersupply Estimated annual requirement of ASW blend (kt) Japan % Korea % Total ANW 510 60 255 30 765 APW 340 40 595 70 935 Total ASW blend 850 100 850 100 1700
Take-Home Message More export competition. Find sources of additional value within or outside the farm business.
Thank You