Monterey County December 3, 2014

Flood Risk Review Meeting: Open Pacific Coast Study Monterey County December 3, 2014

Welcome and Introductions Flood Risk Review Meeting Monterey County California Coastal Analysis and Mapping Project Open Pacific Coast Study Federal Emergency Management Agency - Region IX Edward Curtis, PE, CFM Regional Engineer Study Manager Olivia Humilde External Affairs/Mitigation Outreach Specialist Juliette Hayes Risk Analysis Branch Chief Edith Lohmann National Flood Insurance Specialist Gregor Blackburn Floodplain Management & Insurance Branch Michael Hornick Natural Hazards Program Specialist FEMA Production and Technical Services Contractor Vince Geronimo, PE, CFM Project Manager Darryl Hatheway, CFM Technical Lead, Justin Vandever, PE Coastal Engineer James Johnston, GISP, CFM GIS Manager & Wendy Chang Community Outreach Monterey County, City of Marina, City of Pacific Grove, City of Sand City, City of Seaside, City of Monterey, & City of Carmel by-the-sea 2

Why We re Here Provide an overview of FEMA s National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Risk Mapping, Assessment and Planning (Risk MAP) Program Open Pacific Coast (OPC) Study Review FEMA s Coastal study process and methodology draft Work Maps Online tool for review and comments Discuss how FEMA products and datasets can Support your flood risk communication Inform decisions to reduce flood risk Answer your questions 3

National Flood Insurance Program & Risk MAP

National Flood Insurance Program U.S. Congress established the National Flood Insurance Program with the passage of the National Flood Insurance Act of 1968 Community adopts and enforces a floodplain management ordinance to reduce flood risk to new and existing development in mapped floodplains Federal government makes flood insurance available to property owners in participating communities For more information on the NFIP visit www.fema.gov 5

Risk MAP Vision To deliver quality data that increases public awareness and leads to action that reduces risk to life and property Objective (Coastal) To provide updated flood hazard data for 100% of the populated U.S. coast 6

What is a FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map (FIRM)? 7

Open Pacific Coast Study

California Coastal Analysis and Mapping Project Two Companion Large-Scale Efforts: Open Pacific Coast (OPC) Study San Francisco Bay Area Coastal (BAC) Study Re-study flood risk along the open coast and inland bays of all California coastal counties Re-map the elevation and inland extent of wave-induced coastal flooding www.r9coastal.org 9

Overall OPC Study Schedule OPC Study Phase 2 includes Southern California Counties 10

Outreach Timeline for Community Floodplain Manager April 7, 2011 Discovery Meeting Monterey County Study Kick-off Flood Risk Review Meeting Discuss coastal analysis and review draft work maps Outreach Timeline Open Pacific Coast Study Today April 2015 Resilience Workshop Implement actions to mitigate or reduce coastal flood risks July 2015 Preliminary FIRM Meeting Open House Public Meeting Provide Study Data Work Map Comment Tool Develop Community Outreach Plan Implement Outreach Plan Data Acquisition Coastal Analysis Floodplain Mapping Prelim. Map Production Post Prelim Process Map Production Timeline Typical Coastal Flood Study Proposed Flood Hazard Determinations Appeal Period Issue Letter of Final Determination (LFD) Effective Maps Physical Map Revision (PMR) ~ December 2016 11

Coastal Study Process

Coastal Study Process O U T R E A C H T A P R E V I E W Discovery Data Acquisition/Processing Engineering Analyses Floodplain Mapping Map Production Scoping Meetings (Initiate Outreach, Kick-off Meeting, Field Recon) Data Acquisition (LIDAR, Tide Records, Offshore Waves, Bathymetry) Engineering Analyses (Wave Setup, Wave Runup, Dune Erosion) Draft Work Maps Post-Preliminary Processing 13

Post Prelim Mapping Process Map Production Preliminary maps Community review Preliminary FIRM meeting Post-Prelim Processing Statutory process for proposed BFE Map adoption: 6-month compliance period Maps become Effective Preliminary Maps Post-Preliminary Processing Community Review Preliminary FIRM Meeting BFE Docket Preparation and Appeal Period Final Map Preparation and Issue Letter of Final Determination Compliance Period (Map panels adopted by ordinance) 30 Days or 30-45 Days More + 90 Days 90 Days 6 Months Community Meetings Revised maps become effective Resilience Meeting 14

Coastal Study Process Intermediate Data Submittals (IDS) IDS #1 Scoping and Data Review Field reconnaissance Technical approach Data sources IDS #2 Offshore Waves and Water Levels Deepwater wave climate Nearshore wave transformation Extreme stillwater (SWEL) analysis Stillwater level (SWL) reconstruction IDS #3 Nearshore Hydraulics Wave setup, runup, and overtopping analysis Evaluation of coastal structures IDS #4 Draft Flood Hazard Mapping Determination of flood hazard areas Draft Work Maps 15

Field Reconnaissance 16

Data Acquisition & Processing Topography and Bathymetry Collection California Coastal Mapping Program Ocean Protection Council NOAA USGS Terrain Development Build merged bathymetric and topographic terrain model for 1-D transectbased wave analysis Bathymetry LiDAR 17

Coastal Study Process 1-D Transectbased Analysis 18

Data Acquisition & Processing Offshore Water Levels 50-year (1960-2009) hourly stillwater level (SWL) time series Rely on long-term observed tide station records where available Use predicted tide data and adjacent station data to fill gaps Extreme tide frequency analysis for stillwater elevations (SWEL) Based on observed annual maxima tide data 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2- percent annual chance SWELs 19

Data Acquisition & Processing Deepwater Wave Hindcast (OWI) Oceanweather Inc. Global Reanalysis of Ocean Waves (GROW) Model 50-year hourly hindcast of waves (1960-2009) COASTAL model provides wave spectra at 124 grid point locations Extensive validation with buoy data Model output points GROW GROWFine: NEPAC 20 COASTAL Model

Data Acquisition & Processing Nearshore Wave Transformation Scripps Institution of Oceanography SIO SHELF linear spectral refraction and shoaling model from deepwater to surf zone (15m water depth in Monterey at 200 m spacing) 50-year hourly hindcast of nearshore waves (1960-2009) Model validation with buoy data Wave height and peak direction 21

1-D Coastal Hazard Analyses Transect-based analysis 94 analysis transects Transect locations and density based on: Shoreline characteristics Shoreline orientation Nearshore bathymetry Wave climate Land use and development 22

Total Water Level Components of the total water level (TWL) Astronomical tide (predicted tide): 5-7 ft Surge components: atmospheric pressure, wind setup, El Niño sea level effects: 1-3 ft Wave components: wave setup + runup: 10-20 ft SWL = Tide + surge (no wave effects) TWL = SWL + setup + runup No overland wave propagation analysis in Monterey OPC Study area Stillwater Level (SWL) Tide Level Surge Total Water Level (TWL) Wave Runup Overtopping Dynamic Water Level (DWL) Wave Setup Datum 23

Analyzing Wave Setup, Runup, and Overtopping Setup and Runup Methods Stockdon (2006): sandy beaches and dunes with slope < 1:9 DIM (Pacific Guidelines): rocky beaches with slope > 1:9 DIM + TAW (van der Meer): steep barriers (bluff, seawalls, and revetments) Overtopping Method Cox-Machemehl (inland extend of high velocity zone beyond crest) Dune Erosion Method MK & A geometric dune erosion model Kriebel and Dean time dependence adjustment Extreme Value Statistical Analysis Primary: Peaks-over-threshold (POT) with Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) Secondary: Annual maxima (AM) with Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEV) 24

Estimating Extreme TWLs TWL (ft NAVD) 1-percent TWL TWL time series is computed for 50-year hindcast period Peak TWLs values are extracted for extreme value statistical analysis EVA to determine: 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, and 0.2- percent annual chance TWLs 25

Monterey Harbor Wave Hazards in Harbors Wave transmission over breakwater Wave diffraction around breakwater tip No detailed modeling performed inside harbor Response-based analysis using transmitted and/or diffracted wave height Runup on inland shoreline in protected area to determine BFE Breakwater 26

Coastal Structures Wide variety of coastal structures present along CA coast BakerAECOM reviewed: LiDAR, as-builts from community, aerial photos, site visit notes, USACE drawings and surveys, and Coastal Commission GIS layers to identify and represent structures in profile Rip-rap Pier Seawall Revetment 27

Coastal Structures BakerAECOM developed global treatments to guide decisions at each site based on FEMA s Pacific Guidelines and USACE guidance Consider historical performance, structure condition, as-built drawings, maintenance history, certification, permits, and engineering judgment Will structure withstand base flood event? Yes Conduct Intact analysis only No or uncertain Conduct Intact and Failed Analysis Failed Analysis = partial failure or removal, depending on site conditions Map the most hazardous Base Flood Elevation only 28

Flood Hazard Mapping Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) Mapping Zone VE: Inundated by 1-percent annual chance flood with additional waveinduced hazards (wave runup, wave overtopping splash, high velocity, or overland wave propagation); detailed Base Flood Elevation (BFE) Zone AE: Inundated by 1-percent annual chance flood; detailed BFE Both high hazard zones carry mandatory flood insurance purchase requirements Zone X (shaded): Inundated by 0.2-percent annual chance flood (or inundated by <1 ft for 1-percent flood) Coastal High Hazard Areas Wave Crest Profile Zone VE Zone AE Zone X SWEL Shoreline at map datum H = 3 ft SFHA Boundary 29

Primary Frontal Dune V Zone Mapping Primary Frontal Dune (PFD) V Zone Mapping Definition: a continuous or nearly continuous mound or ridge of sand with relatively steep seaward and landward slopes immediately landward and adjacent to the beach and subject to erosion and overtopping from high tides and waves during major coastal storms Landward extent: a point where there is a distinct chance from a relatively steep slope to a relatively mild slope (i.e., the dune heel) Implications: The PFD represents the landward extension of the VE Zone Purpose: Floodplain management tool to protect dunes and regulate coastal construction practices and building standards Delineation of the PFD is mandated by FEMA regulations Primary Frontal Dune Delineation Crest 1% TWL SWL Limit of runup VE Zone Toe Primary Frontal Dune Dune Width Heel PFD at Del Monte Beach 30

Analysis and Mapping Examples Example Locations Transect 752 (seawall; overtopping; overtopping hazard zone) Transect 875 (sandy beach + dune; PFD delineation) Transect 640 (armored bluff; failed structure; overtopping hazard zone) 752 875 640 31

Seawall + Overtopping Transect 752 Coastal Analysis Results 1% SWEL = 8.6 ft NAVD 0.2% SWEL = 9.2 ft NAVD 1% Runup (TWL) = 32 ft NAVD 0.2% Runup (TWL) = 33 ft NAVD Overtopping distance from crest = 26 ft VE (EL 32) VE (EL 20) 32

Sandy Beach + Dune Transect 875 Coastal Analysis Results 1% SWEL = 8.6 ft NAVD 0.2% SWEL = 9.2 ft NAVD 1% Runup (TWL) = 20 ft NAVD 0.2% Runup (TWL ) = 21 ft NAVD Overtopping distance from crest = N/A Primary Frontal Dune (PFD) V Zone Mapping to heel of dune VE (EL 20) Monterey Dunes Colony 33

Armored Bluff + Overtopping Transect 640 Coastal Analysis Results 1% SWEL = 8.6 ft NAVD 0.2% SWEL = 9.2 ft NAVD 1% Runup (TWL) = 20 ft (failed) or 24 (intact) ft NAVD 0.2% Runup (TWL ) = 25 ft (failed) or 32 (intact) ft NAVD Overtopping distance from crest = 18 ft (intact) VE (EL 24) VE (EL 22) Carmel Beach 34

Structure Failure at Armored Bluff Transect 640 Bracket the TWL response with two cases Identify toe, edge, and crest of intact profile Compute TWL for intact case Fail structure Identify toe, edge, and crest of intact profile Compute TWL for failed case 35

Armored Bluff + Overtopping Transect 640 Special Flood Hazard Area (SFHA) Mapping Three hazard zones identified at this transect (for failed scenario): Wave runup hazard zone: VE = 24 ft NAVD Overtopping hazard zone: VE = 22 ft NAVD Inundation hazard zone: AO (1 ft depth) Crest elevation, E crest = 18.4 ft NAVD Initial splash height, y = 3.3 ft Splash elevation = 18.4 + 3.3 = 21.7 ft NAVD 24 ft 22 ft AO (1 ft) 36

Hazard Mitigation Planning

Hazard Mitigation Planning What is Hazard Mitigation? Any sustained action taken to reduce or eliminate long-term risk to human life and property from hazards What is a Hazard Mitigation Plan? A single/multi-jurisdictional plan that identifies, assesses, evaluates, and prioritizes hazards of all kinds and prescribes mitigation actions. 38

Plan Updates and Implementation Risk MAP Data Meetings and Coordination Areas of Mitigation Interest Local Plans Planning Team Risk Assessment Mitigation Strategy Benefit Cost Analyses Local Coastal Program Local Actions Codes and policies Property Protection Communication and Coordination 39

Hazard Mitigation Plans Monterey Community Plan Status Local Jurisdiction Monterey (Unincorporated Areas) City of Carmel-bythe-Sea Plan Type Approved Until Current Status Multi-Jurisdiction 10/23/2012 Expired Multi-Jurisdiction 10/23/2012 Expired City of Marina Multi-Jurisdiction 10/23/2012 Expired City of Monterey Multi-Jurisdiction 10/23/2012 Expired City of Pacific Grove Multi-Jurisdiction 10/23/2012 Expired City of Sand City Multi-Jurisdiction 10/23/2012 Expired City of Seaside Single-Jurisdiction 5/21/2011 Expired Hazard Mitigation Plans are required to be updated every 5 years 40

Next Steps FEMA Post the work maps on-line for review and comment at www.r9coastal.org Produce Preliminary Maps and facilitate Resilience Workshop Community Officials Review and comment on the draft work maps Stay Informed throughout the Study Sign up for the Coastal Beat E-newsletter and additional FEMA resources Consider using OPC data for hazard mitigation plan update 41

Stay Informed Throughout the Study Meetings Materials Study Updates Website: www.r9coastal.org 42

FEMA Region 9 Webpage FEMA Resources www.fema.gov/fema-region-ix-arizona-california-hawaii-nevada-pacific-islands Follow FEMA R9 via Twitter @femaregion9 Sign up for FEMA Email Updates at www.fema.gov/subscribe-receive-free-email-updates Topics: Region 9 NFIP / CCAMP / Region 9 Risk MAP Sign up for the California Coastal Analysis and Mapping Project (CCAMP) E-newsletter at www.r9map.org/siteassets/signupnewsletter.html FloodSmart: floodsmart.gov - Get a quote, Find an agent Flood Map Center: https://msc.fema.gov/portal - Print a FREE flood map Ready.gov, Listo.gov, Ready.gov/business - Fact sheets, links to training 43

Questions & Answers

Work Map Review

Online Work Map Commenting Tool

Flood Risk Review & Comment Tool Post draft Work Maps online at www.r9coastal.org for community review Accommodate community staff need to review data beyond the meeting timeframe Reduce paper map products from the workflow and reduce the potential for lost comments 47

Comment Process Work Maps released for review in January 2015 Users will be provided a unique login and password WebEx-based demo on the launch date Works Maps will be available for 30 days All comments will be recorded and archived 48

Back-up Slides

Coastal Non-Regulatory Products Non-regulatory products supplement information on the FIRM. They work alongside the regulatory products to provide additional flood risk information and help plan for resilience. Types of Non-regulatory products: Flood Risk Map, Flood Risk Report, and Flood Risk Database Changes Since Last FIRM Areas of Mitigation Interest Flood Depth and Analysis Grids Increased Flooding Scenarios (BFE + 1 ft, BFE + 2 ft, BFE + 3ft ) Dune Size and Location Simplified Coastal Zones Flood Risk Assessment Data Coastal-Specific Non-regulatory Datasets (FEMA, May 2014) 50

Coastal Non-Regulatory Products 51