Demographic Characteristics and Trends of Bexar County and San Antonio, TX Leadership San Antonio Understand Infrastructure. Prepare for Growth. May 2, 2012 San Antonio, TX
Select Growing States, 2000-2010 2000 Population* 2010 Population* Numerical Change 2000-2010 Percent Change 2000-2010 United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7% Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6% California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0% Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6% Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3% North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5% Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6% 15.7% of numerical change in U.S. Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts. 2
Total Population by County, 2010 Total Population Population % Change, 2000 to 2010 Number of People 82-9,999 10,000-24,999 25,000-99,999 100,000-999,999 1,000,000-4,092,459 Percent Change -21% - -10.1% -10% - -0.1% 0% - 24.9% 25% - 54.9% 55% - 81.8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2010 P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data. Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer. 3
Select Growing Counties, 2000-2010 2000 Population* 2010 Population* Numeric Change Percent Change Harris County 3,400,578 4,092,459 691,881 20.4 Dallas County 2,218,899 2,368,139 149,240 6.8 Tarrant County 1,446,219 1,809,034 362,815 25.1 Bexar County 1,392,931 1,714,773 321,842 23.1 Travis County 812,280 1,024,266 211,986 26.1 Guadalupe County 89,023 131,533 42,510 47.8% Comal County 78,021 108,472 30,451 39.0% Wilson County 32,408 42,918 10,510 32.4% Kendall County 23,743 33,410 9,667 40.7% Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts. 4
Select Growing U.S. Cities, 2000-2010 2000 Population* 2010 Population* Numeric Change Percent Change New York, NY 8,008,278 8,175,133 166,855 2.1% Los Angeles, CA 3,694,820 3,796,621 97,801 2.6% Chicago, IL 2,896,016 2,695,598-200,418-6.9% Houston, TX 1,953,631 2,099,451 145,820 7.5% Philadelphia, PA 1,517,550 1,526,006 8,456 0.6% Phoenix, AZ 1,321,045 1,445,632 124,587 9.4% San Antonio, TX 1,144,646 1,327,407 182,761 16.0% San Diego, CA 1,223,400 1,307,402 84,002 6.9% Dallas, TX 1,188,580 1,197,816 9,236 0.8% San Jose, CA 894,943 945,942 50,999 5.7% Note: Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts. 5
Numeric and Percent Change of Top 10 Fastest Growing MSAs, 2010-2011 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Numeric Change Percent Change 6
Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011 Year* Population Numerical Change** Percent Change Percent Change Due to Natural Increase Net Migration 1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- -- 1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09 1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26 1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42 1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15 2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35 2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8 54.04 45.33 2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 2011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.79 44.99 All values for the decennial dates are for April 1 st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1, as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. ** Change is from previous decade/time period Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center. 7
Components of Change for Bexar County, 2010-2011 Area Total Population Change Natural Increase Vital Events Net Migration Total Percent Births Deaths Total Percent International Domestic Texas 529,120 288,479 54.5 493,650 205,171 238,956 45.2 93,641 145,315 Harris County Dallas County Travis County Bexar County 88,452 61,240 69.2 88,975 27,735 27,343 30.9 24,187 3,156 47,875 34,209 71.5 51,851 17,642 13,692 28.6 15,203-1,511 38,858 14,665 37.7 20,273 5,608 23,914 61.5 6,461 17,453 41,376 19,535 47.2 33,357 13,822 21,605 52.2 4,605 17,000 Value for 2010 is for the decennial census conducted April 1, 2010. Values for 2011 are for July 1, as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. ** Change is from previous time period Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center. 8
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 1990-2010 1990 NH White Hispanic NH Black NH Other 2000 NH White Hispanic NH Black NH Other 2010 NH White Hispanic NH Black NH Other 2% 12% 11% 4% 11% 6% 45% 25% 61% 32% 53% 38% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990, 2000, and 2010 Census counts. 9
Bexar County Racial and Ethnic Composition, 1990-2010 1990 NH White Hispanic NH Black NH Other 2000 NH White Hispanic NH Black NH Other 2010 NH White Hispanic NH Black NH Other 7% 1% 42% 7% 3% 36% 7% 4% 30% 50% 54% 59% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990, 2000, and 2010 Census counts. 10
1990 NH White NH Black San Antonio Racial and Ethnic Composition, 1990-2010 Hispanic NH Other 2000 NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Other 2010 NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Other 1% 3% 4% 7% 36% 6% 32% 6% 27% 56% 59% 63% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 1990, 2000, and 2010 Census counts. 11
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 Projected Racial and Ethnic Population Percentages for Texas, 2000-2040 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Anglo Black Hispanic Other 0% Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario. 12
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 Projected Racial and Ethnic Population Percentages for Bexar County, 2000-2040 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% White Black Hispanic Other 10% 0% Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2007 Migration Scenario. 13
Texas Population Pyramids by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Median age Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer. 14
Texas Population Pyramid, 2010 Median age Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer. 15
Percent Age Group as a Percentage of the Total Bexar County Population, 1990-2010 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990 2000 2010 Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer. 16
Percent Percent Change in Population by Age Group, 2000-2010 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Texas San Antonio Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Summary File 1 data by the Office of the State Demographer. 17
Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older in Texas Counties, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected 2000 2040 Percent 5% - 9.9% 10% - 14.9% 15% - 19.9% 20% - 24.9% 25% - 30.7% Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario. Maps produced by the Office of the State Demographer. 18
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 Projected Population Among Older Texans 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 65 to 74 75 to 84 85 plus 1,000,000 500,000 0 Source: Texas State Data Center, 2000-2004 Projection Scenario. 19
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 Projected Population Among Seniors in Bexar County 200,000 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 65 to 74 75 to 84 85 plus Source: Texas State Data Center, 2000-2004 Projection Scenario. 20
Implications for Education, the Labor Force, Health Care, and Transportation 21
Percent Educational Attainment for Population 25 and Over 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Less than High School High School or equivalency Some college or Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Graduate or Professional degree Texas Bexar County San Antonio Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates. 22
Percent Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% NH White Hispanic NH White Hispanic Texas San Antonio Less than High School High School or equivalency Some college or Associate's degree Bachelor's degree Graduate or Professional degree Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates. 23
Socioeconomic Characteristics for San Antonio Population 25 Years Plus, 2010 Percent Educational Attainment Median Earnings Percent in Poverty Less than High School High School or equivalency Some college or Associate s degree Bachelor s degree Graduate or Professional degree 19.8 25.6 30.8 15.0 8.8 $18,379 $23,395 $30,360 $46,169 $61,019 28.8 15.9 10.4 5.2* -- Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates. Note: Percent in poverty for population with Bachelor s degree also includes those with graduate and professional degrees 24
Percent Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040 35 30 30.1 29.0 28.7 28.7 25 23.9 20 18.8 18.2 15 12.9 10 5 5.3 4.4 0 No High School Diploma High School Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Professional Degree 2000 2040 Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.
Health Insurance Coverage Status, 2009 Adults aged 18 to 64 Children aged 18 and under Number Uninsured Percent Uninsured Number Uninsured Percent Uninsured Texas 4,607,983 30.9 1,205,354 16.9 Bexar County 282,839 28.5 64,853 13.6 Harris County 830,241 33.3 235,727 19.5 Dallas County 553,800 36.8 153,357 21.6 Travis County 184,150 26.7 39,132 15.3 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2009 Small Area Health Insurance Estimates. 26
Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040 Source: Office of the State Demographer using 2006 Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario 27
Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 Total Latino Anglo African American Other 0 Source: Office of the State Demographer using 2006 Texas State Data Center Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario 28
Sizing and Serving Texas Urban Gaps 29
Sizing and Serving Texas Urban Gaps Urban gaps identified in the following urbanized areas: Amarillo Austin Beaumont College Station Bryan Corpus Christi Dallas Fort Worth Arlington Denton Lewisville El Paso Galveston Houston Killeen Longview Lubbock Midland Odessa Port Arthur San Antonio Temple Texarkana Tyler Victoria Waco Wichita Falls Source: Texas Department of Transportation: RMC 0-6473 Texas A&M University/Texas Transportation Institute & University of Texas at San Antonio, Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research
Urban Transit Gap Findings Estimated 4.2 million persons living in urban gaps in 2010 Urbanized area Dallas-Fort Worth- Arlington Percent of Texas Urban Gap Population, 2010 Percent of Urbanized Area Population 45.9% 38.1% Houston 31.1% 27.3% San Antonio 4.6% 12.5% Austin 5.0% 17.8% Source: Texas Department of Transportation: RMC 0-6473 Texas A&M University/Texas Transportation Institute & University of Texas at San Antonio, Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research 31
Demographics & Destiny 32
Contact Office of the State Demographer Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530 E-mail: State.Demographer@osd.state.tx.us Website: http://osd.state.tx.us 33