South Africa: Seeds of Electoral Change? IPSA conference Poznań, Poland 16 Robert Mattes University of Cape Town Collette Schulz Herzenberg Stellenbosch University 1
The Problem 2
ANC Electoral Victories 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 7 66 66 62 11 17 7 9 12 2 2 7 7 5 62 22 1 6 2 ANC NP/NNP Inkatha DP/DA COPE EFF 3
Usual Inferences of Causes of One Party Dominance 1. High and relatively stable levels of voter enthusiasm for ANC 2. High levels of voter loyalty 3. Loyalty almost impervious to economic and political performance 4. Non-performance bases of support 5. Ethnic / Racial Census voting 4
Usual Inferences of Causes of One Party Dominance 6. BUT: Aggregate election results can be misleading a. Voter participation (registration; turnout; party switchers; vote splitting) b. Partisan identification c. Campaign participation d. Media use e. Views of political parties (trust, competence, inclusivity, leader popularity) f. Cognition g. Social context h. Economic performance evaluations 5
Voter Participation 6
Voter Registration 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 8 75 77 78 1994 1999 4 9 14 Proportion of VAP Registered
Voter Registration 4 35 3 25 15 18 21 23 25 5 1994 1999 4 9 14 Registration (in Millions)
Voter Registration 4 35 3 25 15 23 23 18 27 21 3 33 23 25 5 1994 1999 4 9 14 Registration (in Milliions) Voting Age Population (in Millions)
Voter registration, VAP and turnout 4 35 3 25 15 23 28 23 21 18 16 16 3 33 25 23 19 18 5 1994 1999 4 9 14 Registration (in Milliions) Voting Age Population (in Millions) Election Day Voters (turnout in Millions)
Voter Turnout, The Standard View 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 89 77 77 74 1994 1999 4 9 14 Proportion of Registered Voters Voting
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 86 Voter Turnout The Standard View Reconsidered 89 72 77 77 58 73 6 57 1994 1999 4 9 14 Proportion of Registered Voters Voting Proportion of Voting Age Population Voting
Self-Reported Turnout (by Party Identification) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 99 96 87 85 79 79 89 88 88 84 81 73 63 65 58 1994 1999 4 9 14 ANC Identifiers Opposition Identifiers Independents
Voter Turnout and ANC Electoral Support 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 86 72 7 63 66 66 62 58 6 57 1994 1999 4 9 14 ANC Vote Proportion VAP Turnout
ANC Electoral Support 8 7 6 5 4 3 66 7 63 66 62 54 47 4 39 35 1994 1999 4 9 14 ANC Vote Proportion ANC % of VAP
DA Electoral Support 25 15 5 22 17 12 13 7 7 2 1994 1999 4 9 14 DP/DA Vote Proportion DP/DA % of VAP
Comparisons in Party Support Comparison 4 9 14 % change 4-9 % change 9-14 Reg voters,674,926 23,181,997 25,39,15 12 Actual votes 15,863,554 17,919,966 18,654,771 13 4 ANC,88,915 11,65,748 11,436,921 7-2 DA 1,931,1 2,945,829 4,91,584 53 39
Decomposing the South African Electorate 6 54 5 4 3 32 14 47 28 24 42 4 43 4 39 35 21 17 1994 1999 4 9 14 VAP Voted ANC VAP Voted Opposition VAP Did Not Vote
Millions Registration by Age Group, 14 12 11 8 8 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 2 18-29 years [59%] 3-39 years [8%] 4-49 years [86%] 3 2 1 1 1 5-59 [93%] 6-69 [9%] 7-79 [94%] 8 plus [173%] Eligible voters Registered voters 19
Age Groups as Proportions of Registered Voters 7-79 5% 8+ 2% 6-69 9% 18-29 5-59 25% 15% 4-49 19% 3-39 24%
Split Tickets 4-15 7 6 6 5 4 5 3 2 3 1 4 9 14 Split tickets % 21
Party Switchers 1999-14 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 15 12 8 1999-4 4-9 9-14 Party switcher % 22
Contextualizing Voter Turnout in South Africa Lower than most other African elections Lower than most other developing economy democracies Surprising if only due to the high levels of public engagements in the struggle against apartheid And surprising given South Africa s Own Normative Commitments Participatory Democracy As A Pillar of ANC Goals South African Constitution Explicit Recognition of Participatory Democracy
Contextualizing Voter Turnout in South Africa Holding all other things equal, a country with South Africa s: Type of electoral system (Proportional Representation) -- 7% turnout Age of Democracy -- 69% turnout Level of Development -- 64% turnout Predominant Party System (>6% government support in two consecutive elections) -- 56% turnout
Partisan Identification 25
Partisan Identification (% Who Identify With Any Party) 9 8 88 7 6 5 4 58 58 45 55 46 57 56 64 6 68 61 57 3 1994 1995 1997 1998 1999 2 4 6 8 9 11 14 All Voters
Partisan Identification ( Which Party is that? ) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 58 37 42 35 44 33 41 47 52 43 51 44 39 15 9 9 5 5 6 4 32 3 3 2 4 3 2 3 42 1 3 5 1 2 2 1 21 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 19941995 1997 19981999 2 4 6 89 11 14 ANC DP/DA COPE NNP IFP PAC ID UDM Other
Campaign Participation 28
Campaign Participation (% of All Eligible Voters) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 86 44 19 11 72 64 58 6 48 23 51 31 57 44 28 35 1 4 4 1994 1999 4 9 14 Voter turnout of VAP Interested / Very Interested In Campaign Attend Election Rally Contribute Money to Party Work For Political Party
Potential Impact of Campaign 6 5 4 42 51 4 3 Always Intended On Voting That Way 14 14 12 Before Campaign Started 5 6 5 4 4 4 Least 1 Month Before Election Few Weeks Before Election 2 4 2 3 1 Last Week Before Election 6 Election Day 4 9 14
Media Use 31
Media Use During Campaign - Newspapers 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 77 69 63 16 13 8 9 9 4 11 9 4 9 14 Never / Infrequently 1-2 days a wk 3-4 days a wk Daily/almost every day 32
Media Use During Campaign - Radio 7 6 5 4 55 61 46 3 22 15 11 12 12 12 13 16 24 4 9 14 Never/infrequently 1-2 days per wk 3-4 days per wk Daily/almost every day 33
Media Use During Campaign - TV 7 6 59 5 45 4 3 24 27 31 38 9 8 12 16 15 16 4 9 14 Never/Infrequently 1-2 days a wk 3-4 days a wk Daily/almost every day 34
Media Use During Campaign - Internet 1 98 99 97 8 6 4 1 1 1 1 1 4 9 14 Never/Infrequently 1-2 days per wk 3-4 days per wk Daily/Almost every day 35
Views of Political Parties 36
Perceived Inclusiveness of Political Parties 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 77 39 39 16 75 7 78 65 5 33 39 41 33 27 32 28 29 27 28 3 28 26 26 25 25 1994 1999 4 9 14 ANC DA NNP UDM IFP COPE EFF
Perceived Inclusiveness of Parties, 14 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 ANC DA COPE EFF UDM IFP ACDP NFP Agang FF+ All Don t Know Enough About Them One Group Only
Trust In Political Parties 9 8 7 77 75 7 6 5 4 3 57 5 39 33 39 33 27 28 29 27 28 28 26 21 16 17 16 79 98 1994 1999 4 9 14 ANC DA NNP UDM IFP COPE
Party and Candidate Attributes 1. If voters become dissatisfied with the governing party, they will not necessarily vote for other political parties 2. Before they consider the policy positions of another party, they must be convinced of some basic traits of the party: a. Ability to Govern b. Trustworthiness c. Inclusiveness (a necessary but not sufficient condition for support)
Government Handling of Voter s Most Important Problem 9 8 7 6 5 44 53 4 3 17 32 39 26 1994 1999 4 9 14 Handled MIP Well / Very Well Any Other Party Able To Do Better?
Perceived Competence of Opposition Parties Ability to Govern 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 45 4 28 37 16 23 13 14 15 13 15 12 13 5 5 1994 1999 4 9 14 DA NNP UDM IFP ACDP FF+ COPE EFF
Cognition 43
Political Interest (% Very or Somewhat Interested) 6 5 49 55 5 4 3 36 1999 4 9 14 Political Interest 44
Social Networks 45
Campaign Discussion (% Often or Sometimes) 7 6 5 58 53 51 5 4 3 31 35 17 15 28 23 26 16 4 9 14 Family Friends Neighbours Coworkers 46
Campaign Discussion (% Often or Sometimes) 7 6 57 64 6 57 66 5 47 4 3 4 9 14 Spouse/Partner Primary discussant 47
Partisan Congruence (% Support Same Party as Respondent) 8 7 6 65 71 6 5 46 45 45 44 4 3 31 32 25 21 16 4 9 14 Family Friends Neighbours Coworkers 48
Performance Evaluations: political and economic goods 49
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Personal Economic Evaluations 59 61 56 57 5 51 49 49 41 42 45 47 44 45 41 37 33 32 33 1997 1998 2 4 6 8 9 11 14 Personal Economic Conditions (Next Year) Personal Economic Situation (Present) Life Better Today Than Under Apartheid
National Economic Evaluations 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 73 62 65 57 56 55 51 48 51 44 43 46 41 44 46 42 41 37 35 36 34 3 29 3 25 26 21 15 18 15 17 1995 1997 1998 1999 2 4 6 8 9 11 14 National Economic Situation (Next Year) National Economic Situation (Present) Country Going In Right Direction
Job Approval of Elected Leaders 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 76 53 64 46 3 79 64 49 44 5 51 45 45 43 39 31 33 73 67 6 51 77 6 57 38 55 51 46 43 62 44 64 54 41 37 39 1995 1997 1998 2 4 6 8 9 11 14 President Parliament Provincial Premier Local Govt Council
Performance Evaluations (Macro-Economic Management) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 65 58 47 5 46 42 45 37 38 39 38 4 33 36 28 3 31 33 23 24 22 25 25 24 25 17 1998 1999 2 4 6 8 9 11 14 Managing the Economy Keeping Prices Stable Creating Jobs
9 8 7 6 5 4 3 57 47 66 64 67 53 49 43 38 Performance Evaluations (Welfare and Development) 82 71 73 73 68 61 64 65 58 54 55 56 46 49 44 76 71 74 66 67 66 56 57 59 61 47 5 5 55 56 57 42 35 3 1998 1999 2 4 6 8 9 11 14 Addressing Educational Needs Distributing Welfare Payments Delivering Household Water Improving Basic Health Services Combating HIV/AIDS Ensuring Everyone Has Enough to Eat
Performance Bases of ANC Support 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 79 76 77 73 64 62 64 58 55 5 51 52 51 47 42 44 41 43 44 37 35 37 39 33 19941995 199719981999 2 4 6 89 11 14 Presidential Job Approval ANC Identification
Performance Bases of ANC Support 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 62 58 57 55 51 52 51 47 42 44 44 43 43 44 41 42 37 39 35 33 3 29 19941995 199719981999 2 4 6 89 11 14 ANC Identification National Economic Optimism
Performance Bases of ANC Support 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 73 65 58 56 52 51 47 42 44 46 44 41 43 44 46 37 39 41 35 37 33 35 36 19941995 199719981999 2 4 6 89 11 14 ANC Identification Country Headed In Right Direction
One Party Dominance: A Different View 1. ANC vote shares are based on a significant, but not overwhelming base of brand loyalty / standing choice of partisan identification History of Apartheid and Demographic Geometry ANC Performance in Struggle 2. This identification fluctuates in very predictable ways with voter satisfaction with government and economic performance 3. There is a significant pool of independent / non-partisan voters 4. However, opposition voters have negative, or unknown images of opposition parties
One Party Dominance: A Different View Opposition problems are self-inflicted? Poor opposition party strategy Focus too much on policy positions, rather than image Often wait until short official campaign Opposition are victim of: ANC s ability to buy support through social welfare grants ANC s control over electoral rules Party funding formulae Unified elections Restrictions on television advertising (NB change in 9) ANC ability to frame opposition parties through state news media