Workshop on climate risks and vulnerabilities of Albania s energy sector Climate variability and expected changes in Albania Eglantina Demiraj Bruci Climate Change Programme, MoEFWA 10 March 2009, Tirana International Hotel
Content 1. Present climate 2. Expected climate changes 3. Likely impacts of climate changes 4. Time to adapt
1. Present climate typically Mediterranean, characterized by mild winters with abundant precipitation and hot, dry summers. very broken orography, values of some climatic elements (precipitation, temperature etc.) very different from one region to another.
Present climate temperature air variation over the territory from 7 C over the highest zones up to 15 C on the coastal zone; up to 16 C in south- west. almost stable (12-14 C) along the lowland Source: Albania s FNC to UNFCCC
Interannual: air temperature variability around normal value with distinct periods of reverse trends. last 15 s - increasing trend (increase in both maximum and minimum daily temperatures, especially in summer. after 2000 - several s- increasing rate of minimum temperature, higher than that of maximum in summer. temp.anomaly temp.anomaly 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00-0.50-1.00-1.50 Shkoder R 2 = 0.5686 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00-0.50-1.00-1.50 anomaly Kukes Poly. (anomaly) R 2 = 0.42 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 anomaly Poly. (anomaly) temp. deviation ( C) anomaliy ( C) annnual air temperature anomaly, Lezha 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00-0.50-1.00 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1.0 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 temp.dev. 1972 1976 Tirana 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Poly. (temp.dev.) 1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
precipitation 42.5 Precipitation total : up to 1300 mm/ ( 1360 up to 1470 mm/). The highest value, about 66 % of the total- during the cold months (October-March). The wettest months : November-December, the driest : July-August 42 41.5 41 40.5 40 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400-4000 19.5 20 20.5 21
precipitation 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 Durres R 2 = 0.1102 Vlore 1.8 1.6 R 2 = 0.2126 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 anomaly anomaly Korce 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 Tirana - city R 2 = 0.3145 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 anomaly 1.6 R 2 = 0.1627 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 1931 1935 1939 1943 1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 anomaly Source: Albania s FNC to UNFCCC clear evidence of climate variability. Extreme events (heavy rains, floods and drought) are not rare phenomena for the area - part of this variability.
Present climate extraordinary event
2.Expected climate changes Low resolution projections Source: BRUCI, SEE projections.., 2005 HAD300
2.Expected climate changes Low resolution projections Source: BRUCI, SEE projections.., 2005
Expected climate changes Seasonal changes Source: BRUCI, SEE projections.., 2005
High resolution air temperature (1.5 m) Source: BRUCI, SEE projections.., 2005
Source: BRUCI, SEE projections.., 2005 Air temperature
Source: BRUCI, SEE projections.., 2005 Total precipitation rate
3.Expected climate changes change (%) change ( C) Annual changes in temperature 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 2025 2050 2100 annual changes in precipitation 0 1990 2025 2050 2100-5 -10-15 -20 change (%) change ( C) Changes in temperature, summer 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 2025 2050 2100 Changes in precipitation, summer 0-10 1990 2025 2050 2100-20 -30-40 -50-60!!!! Increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation!!!! The annual increase in temperature : 1.0, 2.0 and 4.1 C respectively by 2025, 2050 and 2100 Decrease in annual precipitation: up to 3.0%, 6.1% and 12.4% respectively by 2025, 2050 and 2100!!!! may expect: milder winter, warmer springs, hotter and drier summers and autumn. Source: Bruci, in V&A, Albania s SNC to UNFCCC, 2009, draft
3.Expected climate changes 1961-90 2050 2100 Source: Bruci, in V&A, Albania s SNC to UNFCCC, 2009,draft
Expected climate changes Relative Sea level change since 1995 (cm) 2025 2050 2100 MAGICC 8 13-17 30-45 DIVA 1-2 3-15 8-35 coast floodplain area net loss of wetland area Source: Bruci, in V&A, Albania s SNC to UNFCCC, 2009,draft
3. Likely impacts of CC change (%) annual runoff changes 0-101990 2025 2050 2075 2100-20 -30-40 -50-60 change (%) winter changes, runoff 0 1990-2 2025 2050 2075 2100-4 -6-8 -10-12 spring changes, runoff summer changes, runoff change (%) 0 1990 2025 2050 2075 2100-20 -40-60 change (%) 0 1990-20 2025 2050 2075 2100-40 -60-80 -80-100 Source: V&A, Albania s SNC to UNFCCC, 2009, draft
Likely impacts a general drying over the study area during summer. (combination of the increased temperature and potential evaporation that is not balanced by the increases of precipitation). increases in the heat index (because of changes in surface air temperature and humidity). More hot days and heat waves are very likely. These increases are projected to be largest mainly in areas where soil moisture decreases occur. More frequent and severe droughts with greater fire risk are likely. Frost days and cold waves are very likely to become fewer.
Likely impacts of CC Decrease in runoff, both annual and seasonal A decrease of 20% in runoff a reduction of 60% in power generation (FNC report) Because of the reduction of stream flows in the wetlands, western part of Albania would experience both increasing demands for water and reduced supply of water, which would decrease wetland area. Increase in the frequency of extreme events may mean an under designed reservoir or spillway with potential flood risk not only changes in total water amount and levels, but also erosion of riverbeds, and modification of turbidity and sediment load.
Time to adapt Key Message Adaptation actions should be integrated into development policy and planning at every level. This will incur incremental adaptation costs relative to plans that ignore climate change. But ignoring climate change is not a viable option inaction will be far more costly than adaptation. Source: Stern Review. Part V: Policy Responses for Adaptation. 20 Adaptation in the developing world.
Some publications Second National Communication GHGs inventory Mitigation V&A www.ccalb.org