Today Decline of Parties In Electorate In Nominations In Government? Machines New Deal Realignment
The New Deal Party System Crash and Depression Hoover s cautious response, Roosevelt s cautious campaign Election of 1932 New Party Alignment Democrats: Catholic, Jewish, urban, labor, working class, blacks Republicans: professions, business, rich, native rural Protestants New Cleavage: Government Role in Economy & Income Democratic Party s long return to dominance Sources of Democratic Coalition Stability FDR appeal, depression efforts, war leadership State control and seniority incentives Historical legacy label, exclusion of blacks
Consolidation and Change Consolidation in North and South Postwar Southern Politics Rise of the New South Third party defections in 1948, 1968 New era of ticket-splitting Turning points: 1958 midterms, Goldwater campaign (1964) Fusion of racial and economic ideology (ambitious politicians) Transformation into competitive party politics New Supplemental Cleavages/Issues Cold War New Social Issues (law & order, race, environment, education) New Cultural Issues (abortion, family values, religion, sex)
100% 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Democratic Presidential Vote, 1932-2000 Border South vs. Deep South Deep South Average Border South Average 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996
2001 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Republican Officeholding in the South, 1956-2001 Governorships U.S. House and Senate Seats State House and Senate Seats 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1956 1958 1960 Proportion of Seats Held by GOP
Choosing the Chosen Nomination Process Reform
Choosing the Chosen Importance of Recruitment & Nomination Process Political Leadership Qualities of the Process Open? Competitive? Rational? Democratic? Contemporary Complaints What It Takes: permanent campaign, money, loss of privacy What It Gives: pander & sidestep, quality of information, tone Effect of Selection Process on Kind of Leader
Evolution of Candidate Selection The Electoral College Hopes for a deliberative search committee Caucus and Convention System Legislative Caucus Delegate Convention System Party Primary Purpose of Primaries Mixed System: Primaries & Conventions
Turning Points 1960 John F. Kennedy Media savvy Lessons Popular outsider It s the Television, Stupid! (changing tools & changing rules) The Sixties: Radicals & Right-Wingers Barry Goldwater v. Nelson Rockefeller (1964) Johnson, Humphrey, McCarthy, Kennedy Democrats 68 The Chicago Convention
Recommendations for Reform Aftermath of 1968 McGovern-Fraser Commission (1969-72) Reform Proposals Public Notice Closed Primary Proportional Representation Modified Quotas New Incentives Encourage primaries Encourage better candidates
Party Reform Differences in Party Rules Democrats Openness requirements Proportional allocation + Minority/Woman quotas Republicans State deference Winner-take-all Rise of Primaries Application of new rules by state legislatures Mixture of open and closed primaries 1968: 17 (D), 16 (R), 41-43% of delegates 1980: 30 (D), 33 (R), 71-75% of delegates 1996: 34 (D), 41 (R), 62-81% of delegates 2000: 40 (D), 42 (R)
Carter 1976 An unknown: 4 years state senate + 4 as governor. What s my Line? Late 1974. 4% before Iowa. Winning elements: Time. Early Entry. Momentum.Iowa..New Hampshire = 16% Scoop Jackson, George Wallace skip NH. Mo Udall 2 nd Lessons or Not Advantages outsiders. Party loses control.
No Repeat of Carter Others Catch on: 7 of 8 Contested Races won by pre-iowa Frontrunner 7 of 8 winners forecasted by $$$.
Presidential Primary Politics Frontloading Media and Momentum Impact of Frontloading Early withdrawal? Higher turnout? The Long Campaign
Frontloading: Clinching the Nomination 250 Republicans 200 Days until Nomination Clinched 150 100 Democrats 50 0 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Frontloading: Rate of Delegate Selection 90 80 Delegates Chosen by End of Week 8 70 60 Percentage of Delegates 50 40 30 20 Democrats Republicans 10 0 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Presidential Primary Politics Frontloading Media and Momentum Impact of Frontloading Early withdrawal? Higher turnout? The Long Campaign
U.S. Map Resized by Electoral College Vote (1984)
U.S. Map Resized by News Media Coverage of Nominations
Presidential Primary Politics Frontloading Media and Momentum Impact of Frontloading Early withdrawal? Higher turnout? The Long Campaign
OPEN QUESTIONS Do primaries give more power to extremists? What is the role of parties? Is the process representative?
New Hampshire Primary Voters (Compared to Same-Party Voters Elsewhere) REPUBLICANS Similar in race Similar in gender Younger Better educated Slightly wealthier More catholics, fewer protestants Larger share of independents Similar share of strong identifiers Smaller share of weak identifiers Similar ideology (labels) More pro-choice Less religious right DEMOCRATS Fewer (almost no) minorities Similar in gender Younger Better educated Considerably wealthier More catholics, fewer protestants Much larger share of independents Much smaller share of strong IDers Much smaller share of weak IDers More liberal, less conservative
80 75 70 Republican Activists Average Lib/Con Index Position 65 60 55 50 45 40 Independents Republican Identifiers Democratic Identifiers 35 Democratic Activists 30 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 Source: ANES 1948-1996 Cumulative Data File. Note: Activists are defined as respondents who engaged in 3 or more campaign activities as coded in vcf0723.