Global Impacts of El Niño on Agriculture Presented to the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture s Food and Agribusiness Series Webinar Series Presented by: Mark Brusberg and Brian Morris USDA Office of the Chief Economist / World Agricultural Outlook Board July 28, 2015
What is El Niño? El Niño was originally recognized by fisherman off the coast of South America as the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific ocean, occurring near the beginning of the year. El Niño means The Little Boy or Christ child in Spanish. This name was used for the tendency of the phenomenon to arrive around Christmas. Around the same time, people in other parts of the world noticed a correlation between El Niño and other events, such as drought in Australia and India. The phenomenon is now referred to as ENSO (El Niño / Southern Oscillation), in an acknowledgement that there are both ocean and atmospheric components.
We now know that El Niño is actually the warm phase of a naturally occurring cycle of temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. Source of data and graphics: NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/cwlink/mjo/enso.shtml
2.50 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C) Niño Region 3.4 2.00 1.50 1.00 Warm (190 obs) 0.50 0.00 Neutral (398) -0.50-1.00-1.50 Cool (178) -2.00-2.50 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Climate Adjusted Anomaly
Increasing Sea Surface Temperatures are taken into account!
El Niño is 3 Dimensional
Coupling SSTs with the Atmosphere After a sufficient period of time, El Niño will begin to affect surface winds by altering normal circulation patterns.
Ocean Atmosphere
Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board
The El Niño of 2015?
SST Departures ( o C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last Four Weeks During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average across the central and eastern Pacific, with the largest anomalies in the far eastern Pacific.
Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific During the last two months, positive subsurface temperature anomalies were observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Most recent pentad analysis Recently, negative anomalies at depth remained in the western Pacific, while positive anomalies strengthened around 160-170ºW.
Updated: 9 July 2015 CPC/IRI Probabilistic ENSO Outlook The chance of El Niño is at least 80% into early spring 2016.
IRI/CPC Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook Almost all of the models indicate Niño 3.4 SST anomalies will remain greater than or equal to +0.5ºC through spring 2016. All multi-model averages suggest that Niño 3.4 will be above +1.5ºC (a strong El Niño) during late 2015 into early 2016. Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 14 July 2015).
How Would this Compare Historically? The *Multivariate ENSO Index (NOAA/ Earth System Research Laboratory) *These six variables are: sea level pressure (P), zonal (U) and meridional (V) components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature (S), surface air temperature (A), and total cloudiness fraction of the sky (C).
Potential ENSO Impacts on Agriculture in the Southern Hemisphere Copyright 2008,2014 C.A.Furuti
South Africa
El Niño Source: PSD-Online
1997/98 2002/03 2009/10 El Niño? Source: PSD-Online
2009/10 1997/98 2002/03?
1997/98 2002/03? 2009/10
2.50 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C) Niño Region 3.4 1997/98 2.00 1.50 1.00 2009/10? 0.50 2006/07 5 consecutive periods (0.5 to 1.0) 0.00-0.50-1.00-1.50-2.00-2.50 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 La Niña Neutral / non-event El Niño
Australia
El Niño Source: PSD-Online Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board
2.50 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ( C) Niño Region 3.4 1997/98 2.00 1.50 2002/03 09/10 1.00 06/07 0.50 0.00-0.50-1.00-1.50-2.00-2.50 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board La Niña Neutral / non-event El Niño
1997/98 2002/03 06/07 09/10 El Niño Source: PSD-Online Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board
Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board
South America
Potential ENSO Impacts on Agriculture in Asia
India
El Niño Source: PSD-Online
1997/98 2002/03 2009/10 El Niño Source: PSD-Online
El Niño Source: PSD-Online
1997/98 2002/03 2009/10 El Niño Source: PSD-Online
2009: 2% increase in national yields year to year.
India
More Detailed Examination: Polarization of Impacts
SOURCE: Indian Ocean Dipole Phenomenon's Impact on Correlation between Indian Monsoon and El Niño/Southern Oscillation November 29, 2001; NASDA; JAMSTEC
SOURCE: Indian Ocean Dipole Phenomenon's Impact on Correlation between Indian Monsoon and El Niño/Southern Oscillation November 29, 2001; NASDA; JAMSTEC
SOURCE: Indian Ocean Dipole Phenomenon's Impact on Correlation between Indian Monsoon and El Niño/Southern Oscillation November 29, 2001; NASDA; JAMSTEC
SOURCE: Indian Ocean Dipole Phenomenon's Impact on Correlation between Indian Monsoon and El Niño/Southern Oscillation November 29, 2001; NASDA; JAMSTEC
Source: Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation Events on Tropical Cyclone Landfalling Activity in the Western North Pacific M. C. WU, W. L. CHANG, AND W. M. LEUNG
In the Southern Hemisphere, El Niño typically contributes to drought in South Africa and Australia, although not always. Similarly, La Niña can have a reverse affect. In contrast, rainier conditions are expected in Argentina. Impacts in Brazil are harder to quantify in terms of agricultural production. ENSO s impacts in Asia are not guaranteed, but rather ENSO has a disruptive effect on the typical climatology of Asia; ENSO positive (El Niño) has a dry influence, ENSO negative (La Niña) has a wet influence, with ENSO negative having the stronger influence. http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/