Demographic Projection in Russian Interindustrial Model Vadim Potapenko
Russian population on 1 st January, million people 150 145 140 148.5 143.7 146.4 135 130 125 120 115 110 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2
Components of natural increase of population, million people 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 births deaths 3
Population by age in 2014, thousand people 4
1960 2014 5
Germany 2012 Russia 2012 6
Total Fertility Rate 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.71 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 7
Life Expectancy at Birth, years 80 75 76.3 70 65 65.1 60 55 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Males Females 8
Demographic situation is the most discussed subject of socioeconomic agenda in Russia for many years There are main concerns about possible future demographic situation: Depopulation (great territory with decreasing population have political and social risks in a long-time period) Change of population structure (that can affect labour market conditions and decelerate economic growth) Increase of expenditures on pension system 9
Cohort component method is used for population forecasting To use the method we need to have: Population by sex and age (1-year groups) in basic year Age-specific survival ratios for males and females for every year of forecast period Age-specific fertility rates for every year of forecast period Number of migrants by sex and age for every year of forecast period Example of the method s using: Nf25(2014) = ( Nf24(2013) + 0.5*If24(2013, 2014 ) )*Sf25 + 0.5*If25(2013,2014), where Nf25(2014) number of females at age 25 on 1 st January of 2014, Sf25 survival ratio for females from age 24 to 25, If25(2013, 2014) - number of net female migrants at age 25 in 2013 To apply cohort component method we need to develop fertility, mortality and migration scenarios by sex and age for every year of forecast period 10
For developing mortality scenario Murray s method* is used. By the method only two parameters probability of dying before age 5 and 60 let approximately calculate all elements of life table Probability of dying before age: five sixty Murray s method Probability of dying at age: zero q0 one q1. hundred q100 In this way, to develop whole mortality scenario for Russia only four values for every year has to be set: probability of dying before age 5 and 60 for males and for females. These forecast values were set through analysis of the retrospective data for Russia and a wide range of other countries *Murray C.J.L. (2003). Modified logit life table system: principles, empirical validation and application. Population Studies 57(2) 11
Current Russian level of probability of dying before 5 years (for males) is 12 Period between 8 and 12, years 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year when 12 was registered first time Mortality scenario assumes that falling of probability of dying before 5 years (for males) from 12 to 8 (per thousand people) will take 6 years in Russia, as it is ordinary for countries that achieved 12 after 1990 12 Points on the figure are 28 countries (Europe, USA, Japan, Canada) Source: Human Mortality Database
For developing fertility scenario the next formula is used* where f(x) age-specific fertility rate at mother s age x, T a parameter that describes level of fertility linked with total fertility rate, M a modal mother s age N(x) an additional parameter that reflects spread of fertility curve before and after modal mother s age (it splits by two values the first one is for ages before modal mother s age, the second one is for ages after it) To develop whole fertility scenario only four values should be set: total fertility rate, modal mother s age and two additional parameters of spread *Peristera P., KostakiA. (2007). Modeling fertility in modern populations. Demographic Research, Volume 16 13
Main exogenous variables values that are set for demographic forecast Probability of dying before age (per thousand people) 5 60 2013 2030 2050 2070 Bases males 12 5 4 4 females 9 3 3 3 males 332 210 135 99 females 132 98 58 50 Modal mother's age 25 28 30 30 Analysis of retrospective data for Russia and other countries Total fertility rate 1.71 1.74 1.83 1.87 UN forecast Net migration, million people 0.30 0.11 0.08 0.05 (medium variant) The scenario is quite MEDIUM. Firstly, it supposes that Russian mortality will decrease by current level of Western Europe in 50 years only. Secondly, the scenario supposes very fast decrease of migration flows 14
Life Expectancy at Birth, years 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 Males Females 15
Age-specific fertility rates 0.18 0.15 0.12 0.09 0.06 0.03 0.00 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 Age 2010 2040 16
Components of natural increase of population, million people 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 births deaths 17
Russian population on 1 st January, million people 150 145 146.4 143.3 140 135 136.0 130 125 125.7 120 115 110 18
2014 2040 2070 19
Structure of Russian population by age, % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 20-64 0-19 65 and above 20
Ratio of dependants and employed, % 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032 2037 2042 2047 2052 2057 2062 2067 2072 21 This calculation supposes that age-specific rates of economic activities and age-specific rates of unemployment will be the same as in 2013 for every year of forecast period
Number of people at pension age, % of population 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 Variant 1 Variant 2 22 Variant 1 current pension age (males 60, females 55) Variant 2 increasing pension age (males by 65 from 2030 to 2050, females by 60 from 2020 to 2040)
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