TRANSPORT FOR LONDON RIVER CROSSINGS: EAST OF SILVERTOWN CROSSINGS SUPPORTING TECHNICAL DOCUMENTATION TRAFFIC IMPACT REPORT Neil Georgeson July 2014 This report examines the traffic impacts that potential river crossings would have on the highway network. Topics examined include: Background traffic growth; Changes in traffic and related delay; Connectivity; Cross river demand; Routings of trips; Origins of trips using crossings. This document contains information relevant to the following options: Woolwich Ferries Bridges Tunnels Gallions Reach Ferries Bridges Tunnels Belvedere Ferries Bridge Tunnels
East of Silvertown: Traffic Impact Report Transport for London July 2014 1
Introduction This report provides a review of the highway traffic forecasts for the proposed options for new river crossings between East and South East London. Description of traffic models Transport for London (TfL) has used the London Regional Demand Model (LoRDM) to forecast the demand and traffic impacts of several options to provide new river crossings in East and South East London. LoRDM uses population and employment figures (as contained in the Mayor s 2009 London Plan) as well as assumptions from Government on economic growth to predict overall travel demand on both public transport and the highway network. The LoRDM model also estimates highway and public transport network conditions. On the highway side LoRDM includes TfL s River Crossings Highway Assignment Model (RXHAM), which represents the highway network in detail to determine the strategic routing of trips between their origins and destinations. TfL has modelled the impact of a number of potential river crossing options for the year 2021. The focus provided is on the weekday morning peak hour (08:00-09:00), however, results are also provided for some indicators for the average one hour interpeak (from 10:00-16:00), and for the evening peak hour (17:00-18:00). It should be noted that the RXHAM is strategic in nature and is used to identify broad changes in traffic patterns across the highway network, as well as the magnitude of this change. The results should not be taken as a definitive forecast of future flows, especially on minor roads or at individual junctions. Also the models do not yet assume any mitigation measures that might be introduced such as changes to junction capacities or new traffic calming measures. Further models which will more accurately represent traffic flows and individual junctions closer to the proposed river crossings are currently being developed by TfL. In addition traffic forecasts will be updated if population and employments forecasts as contained in the Mayor s London Plan are revised. The model results do not include any land use changes that could occur as a result of changes in travel accessibility. The model however does take into account how trips might redistribute between the locations of future population and job changes, and how mode share might be impacted. 2
Description of options tested The scenarios that were tested are outlined below: 1) A higher capacity ferry service at Woolwich Ferry (30% additional capacity each direction); 2) A ferry at Gallions Reach (double the capacity of the existing Woolwich Ferry) and the removal of Woolwich Ferry; 3) A bridge at Gallions Reach (comprising of one general traffic lane and one lane for HGV / buses in each direction) and the removal of the Woolwich Ferry; 4) A bridge at Belvedere (comprising of one general traffic lane and one lane for HGV / buses in each direction). In this scenario Woolwich Ferry remains but operates with an extra 30% capacity compared to today s levels. For all of the above options it was assumed that a new crossing (a tunnel) at Silvertown will be built connecting the North Greenwich Peninsula with the Royal Docks, with both the new crossing and Blackwall Tunnel being charged. It should be noted that the Current charges applied to the Dartford Crossing are as follows: Car 2.00 Van 2.50 HGV 5.00 It is assumed that these charges will increase over time, broadly in line with inflation and will reflect planned increases as set out by the DfT. With regards to TfL s modelling for the proposed crossings it was assumed that the following charges would be applied at Blackwall and Silvertown, and to Woolwich Ferry or its replacement. Northbound Southbound AM Peak Dartford rate 50% Dartford rate Inter Peak 50% Dartford rate 50% Dartford rate PM Peak 50% Dartford rate Dartford rate It should be noted that further work on the appropriate level of charge will be undertaken including work on potential discounts to any charge. To enable comparisons, TfL also forecast what highway conditions would be like in 2021 if: 1) no new river crossings were implemented at either Silvertown or further east along the River Thames compared to 2012; 2) just Silvertown Crossing was built and Blackwall were both charged. 3
This report will focus on how the proposed crossings impact the highway network by looking at the following themes: A) Assignment which routes are used by people in making their journey taking into account the new crossings; B) Connectivity how journey times change as a result of the new crossings; C) Distribution how people change their trip destination. This report does not address mode shift in detail as no bus routes have been added or extended to use a potential Gallions or Belvedere Bridge. As such the forecasts presented in this report represent a worst case in terms of impact on the highway network, as it would be expected that some cross river trips would transfer from car to bus. Further discussion on mode shift is presented later in the report. 4
Reference Case The Reference Case includes assumptions regarding the development of the transport network. On the highway network there are three main sets of changes from the 2012 base year: 1) the junctions of the A206 Woolwich Road / Gallions Road and Gallions Road / Bugsby s Way have been converted from priority control to signal control; 2) the road network in the Olympic Park area of Stratford changes significantly from 2012 with the addition of many new links for through traffic; 3) the reference networks include increases to the capacity of the Dartford crossing due to the introduction of free-flow electronic tolling. Public transport changes include upgrade schemes for National Rail (including Crossrail 1 and Tilbury & Southend) and DLR/ LUL. A full list of public transport assumptions is included as Appendix A. 5
Background changes from 2012 to 2021 The plot below shows the change in traffic flows in the am peak hour across East and South East London from 2012 to 2021. It can be seen that there are large increases in flows across the strategic road network, eg A13, North Circular, A102, A2 and M25 and to a lesser extent across large sections of the network. These increases are driven primarily by the forecast increase in population and emplyment within London and across the South East of England. Flow changes on the road network in the am peak hour from 2012 to 2021 6
The plot below shows the impact that the increases in traffic flow has on junction delay between 2012 and 2021 in the am peak hour. Increases in delay can be seen across the highway network as a result of increased traffic flows. Some of the largest increases in junction delay occurs on the A13, M25, A2 and northbound approaches to the Blackwall Tunnel. Junction delay changes in the am peak hour from 2012 to 2021 From 2012 to 2021 in the am peak total delay pcu hours increase by 22% (41,533 to 50,660hrs). At a borough level delay increase by 15% in Newham, 19% in Havering, 27% in Bexley, 26% in Greenwich and 31% in Barking & Dagenham. 7
The plot below shows the change in traffic flows in the interpeak (average hour) across East and South East London from 2012 to 2021. As in the am peak, there are large increases in flows across the strategic road network, eg A13, North Circular, A102, A2 and M25 and to a lesser extent across large sections of the network. Flow changes on the road network in the interpeak (average hour) from 2012 to 2021 8
The plot below shows the impact that the increases in traffic flow has on junction delay between 2012 and 2021 in the inter peak (average hour). Increases in delay can be seen across the highway network as a result of increased traffic flows. Compared to the am peak the level of increase in delay is smaller reflecting the lower levels of traffic on the network in the interpeak. Junction delay changes in the inter peak (average hour) from 2012 to 2021 From 2012 to 2021 in the interpeak (average hour) total delay pcu hours increase by 14% (27,728 to 31,530hrs). At a borough level delay increases by 10% in Newham, 13% in Bexley, 15% in Havering, 20% in Greenwich, 21% in Barking & Dagenham and 23% in Tower Hamlets. 9
The plot below shows the change in traffic flows in the pm peak across East and South East London from 2012 to 2021. As in the am and inter peaks, there are large increases in flows across the strategic road network, eg A13, North Circular, A102, A2 and M25 and to a lesser extent across whole sections of the network. Flow changes on the road network in the pm peak hour from 2012 to 2021 10
The plot below shows the impact that the increases in traffic flow has on junction delay between 2012 and 2021 in the pm peak hour. Increases in delay can be seen across the highway network as a result of increased traffic flows. Some of the largest increases in junction delay occurs on the A13, M25, A2 and southbound approaches to the Blackwall Tunnel. Junction delay changes in the pm peak hour from 2012 to 2021 From 2012 to 2021 in the pm peak total delay pcu hours increase by 24% (48,442 to 60,239hrs). At a borough level, delay increases by 18% in Newham, 23% in Bexley, 25% in Havering, 28% in Greenwich, 32% in Barking & Dagenham and 43% in Tower Hamlets. 11
Impact of implementing Silvertown Tunnel, and charging both Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels The plot below shows the change in traffic flows in the am peak hour in 2021 due to the implementation of Silvertown Tunnel and charging both Silvertown and Blackwall. It can be seen that there are increases in flows northbound on the Blackwall and Silvertown approach roads due to the extra capacity that Silvertown Tunnel provides. However, there are decreases southbound due to the charging regime included in the model (1/2 Dartford rate for southbound vehicles). This suggests that the level of delay experienced southbound is not significant enough for users to use the crossings and pay the potential charge in the same numbers as under the Blackwall only no charge scenario. Flow changes due to the implementation of Silvertown Tunnel and charging both Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels in the am peak hour in 2021 12
The plot below shows the change in junction delay as a result of implementing Silvertown Tunnel and charging both Silvertown and Blackwall in the am peak period in 2021. The plot shows that significant reductions in junction delay are achieved on the northbound approaches to Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels. The implementation of Silvertown assists in removing a bottleneck for northbound traffic in the North Greenwich Penninsula. While charging both Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels helps to manage overall traffic levels using these two crossings so that significant delays do not occur elsewhere on the highway network as a result of additional capacity being provided. Dartford and Woolwich Ferry also benefit from small reductions in delay due to trips transferring to use the less congested Blackwall / Silvertown cross river route. Junction delay changes in the am peak hour due to the implementation of Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged in the am peak hour in 2021 The construction of Silvertown Tunnel and charging both Silvertown and Blackwall Tunnels results in a decrease in congested hours across the highway network from 50,660 to 49,738 (-2%) in the am peak hour in 2021. At a borough level delay declines by 23% in Greenwich, increases by 5% in Tower Hamlets and remains broadly unchanged in Bexley, Havering, Newham and Barking & Dagenham. 13
The plot below shows the change in traffic flows in the inter peak (average hour) in 2021 due to the implementation of Silvertown Tunnel and charging both Silvertown and Blackwall. It can be seen that on the approaches in both directions the number of vehicles falls due to the charge applied to the crossings (1/2 Dartford rate for both southbound and northbound vehicles). A decrease in flows is also experienced on the A2, the western section of the A13 and the A102. An increase can be seen on the M25 and Dartford Crossing as people are no longer able to take advantage of a free crossing at Blackwall. Flow changes due to the implementation of Silvertown Tunnel and charging both Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels in the interpeak (average hour) in 2021 14
The plot below shows the change in junction delay as a result of implementing Silvertown Tunnel and charging both Silvertown and Blackwall in the inter peak (average hour) in 2021. The plot shows that delay at junctions reduces on the immediate approaches to Silvertown and Blackwall, although some increases do occur further west towards Rotherhite and Tower Bridge which still operate as charge free crossings. Junction delay changes in the inter peak (average hour) due to the implementation of Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall, both charged in 2021 The construction of Silvertown Tunnel and charging both Silvertown and Blackwall Tunnels results in a slight decrease in congested hours across the highway network from 31,530 to 31,327 (-1%) in the inter peak in 2021. At a borough level, delay declines by 5% in Greenwich and 9% in Tower Hamlets, while remaining broadly unchanged in Havering, Barking & Dagenham, Bexley and Newham. 15
The plot below shows the change in traffic flows in the pm peak hour in 2021 due to the implementation of Silvertown Tunnel and charging both Silvertown and Blackwall. It can be seen that there are increases in flows southbound on the Blackwall and Silvertown approach roads due to the extra capacity that Silvertown Tunnel provides. However, there are decreases northbound due to the charges detering traffic which would have otherwise crossed at this location under a Blackwall (no charge) scenario. Flows also increase on the Dartford Crossing as Blackwall no longer provides a free alternative to cross the River Thames. Flow changes due to the implementation of Silvertown Tunnel and charging both Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels in the pm peak hour in 2021 16
The plot below shows the impact of the junction delay as a result of implementing Silvertown Tunnel and charging both Silvertown and Blackwall in the am peak period in 2021. Significant reductions in junction delay are achieved on the sorthbound approaches to Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels. The implementation of Silvertown assists in removing a bottleneck for sorthbound traffic crossing into the North Greenwich Penninsula. It can be seen that additional delays occurs south of the River Thames due to heavier flows of traffic being able to cross the river at this location. Junction delay changes in the pm peak hour due to the implementation of Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall, both charged in 2021 The construction of Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall Tunnel both being charged results in a slight decrease in congested hours across the highway network from 60,239 to 59,113 (-2%) in the pm peak in 2021. At a borough level delay increases by 9% in Greenwich, and 6% in Bexley, while remaining broadly unchanged in Barking & Dagenham, Newham and Havering. Delay falls by 28% in Tower Hamlets. 17
Connectivity - Woolwich Ferry For Gallions Ferry, Gallions Bridge and Belvedere Bridge, maps have been produced showing changes in access to economically active population and jobs within 37mins travel time. This travel time is the average travel to work time for people in East and South East London boroughs as identified by TfL s London Travel Demand Survey. This analysis has not been presented for the Woolwich Ferry enhanced capacity option so not to overstate the potential impact that an enhanced ferry at the same location would provide, as: 1) only a limited number of additional vehicles (approx. 60 per hour) would be able to use the crossing, whereas much greater volumes of traffic would be able to use a bridge at Gallions or Belvedere. 2) the number of people using the ferry falls compared to the scenario in which Silvertown and Blackwall are charged, but the ferry remains at the same capacity and free to use, due to people diverting to use a faster crossing point at Silvertown / Blackwall. The table below shows the number of minutes saved for selected journeys from south to north of the River Thames and vice versa in the am peak hour in 2021 with the enhanced capacity ferry (charged) compared to the existing ferry service (not charged). Time savings can be achieved for cross river journeys through the increase in capacity at the crossing. It should be noted that for this connectivity analysis the quickest route between an origin and destination may not be via the new infrastructure provided in a particular scenario. Also the quickest route between two points may change between scenarios. For northbound journeys reductions of 13 mins from Thamesmead to Barking, 13 mins from Belvedere to Barking and 13 mins from Thamesmead to the Royals and 17 mins from Belvedere to the Royals are achieved. Due to slightly less congestion for southbound trips in the am peak, lower time savings are delivered with a reduction of 7 mins from Barking to Belvedere, 7 mins Barking to Thamesmead and 7 mins from the Royals to Thamesmead, but 16 mins from Dagenham to Thamesmead. Journey time savings due to Woolwich Ferry (am peak hour, 2021) Northbound To Stratford To Royals To Barking To Dagenham Woolwich 0 13 13 13 Thamesmead 0 13 13 0 Belvedere 0 17 13 0 Bexleyheath 0 0 0 0 Southbound To Woolwich To Thamesmead To Belvedere To Bexleyheath Stratford 0 0 0 0 Royals 7 7 8 0 Barking 7 7 7 4 Dagenham 4 16 0 0 18
Gallions Ferry The plot below shows the change in the number of jobs accessible within 37 mins by zone in the am peak hour in 2021 from implementing Gallions Ferry (with Silvertown and Blackwall charged) compared to just implementing Silvertown and Blackwall charged. It can be seen that increases in accessiblity occur south of the Thames in North Bexley and East Greenwich, with a few zones gaining access to over 200,000 additional potential jobs. There is limited change to the number of jobs accessible within 37 mins north of the Thames, eg in Newham and Barking & Dagenham, as these boroughs have better existing access by road to jobs in areas such as Canary Wharf and the City. The River Thames does not act as a barrier to these locations compared to those locations south of the River Thames. Change in jobs accessible within 37 mins by zone as a result of Gallions Ferry (am peak period, 2021) 19
The plot below shows the change in the number of economically active people accessible within 37 mins by zone from implementing Gallions Ferry (with Silvertown and Blackwall charged) compared to just implementing Silvertown and Blackwall charged. This measure can be used as a proxy as to the potential attractiveness of a location for businesses being able to access a large workforce. The largest gains are south of the River Thames in North Bexley, and north of the River Thames in parts of Newham, the two areas closest to the new crossing. Change in economically active population within 37 mins by zone as a result of Gallions Ferry (am peak period, 2021) Both plots show the potential of Gallions Ferry to assist regeneration in East London, with south of the River Thames gaining improved access to a larger jobs market, and businesses to a larger potential workforce. While north of the River Thames areas primarily gain access to a larger potential workforce south of the Thames. Analysis has not been provided for the interpeak and pm peaks, as the morning period is when the majority of people begin their outward trip to reach their workplace. 20
The table below shows the number of minutes saved for selected journeys from south to north of the River Thames and vice versa in the am peak hour in 2021 with the introduction of Gallions Ferry. Greater time savings can be achieved for cross river journeys through the introduction of a new higher capacity ferry at a new location, than by increasing the capacity of Woolwich Ferry alone. These areas would benefit from a greater change in accessibility around Gallions Reach as the new crossing point is further removed from the existing crossing points of Silvertown and Blackwall than Woolwich. For northbound journeys, reductions of 27 mins from Thamesmead and Belvedere to Barking and 24 mins from Thamesmead and Belvedere to the Royals are achieved. Due to less congestion for southbound trips in the am peak, smaller time savings are delivered with a reduction of 18 mins from Barking to Belvedere and Thamesmead, 14 mins from the Royals to Thamesmead and Belvedere, and 15 mins from Dagenham to Thamesmead. Journey time savings due to Gallions Ferry (am peak hour, 2021) Northbound To Stratford To Royals To Barking To Dagenham Woolwich 0 14 14 17 Thamesmead 1 24 27 4 Belvedere 1 24 27 1 Bexleyheath 1 0-3 0 Southbound To Woolwich To Thamesmead To Belvedere To Bexleyheath Stratford 0 0 0 0 Royals 7 14 14 0 Barking 7 18 18 3 Dagenham 6 15 0 0 21
Gallions Bridge The plot below shows the change in the number of jobs accessible within 37 mins by zone in the am peak hour in 2021 from implementing Gallions Bridge (with Silvertown and Blackwall charged) compared to just implementing Silvertown and Blackwall charged. It can be seen that large increases in accessiblity occur south of the Thames in North Bexley and East Greenwich, with many zones gaining access to over 200,000 additional potential jobs. The increase is significantly less north of the Thames, eg in Newham and Barking & Dagenham, as these boroughs have better access by road to jobs in areas such as Canary Wharf and the City. Also the River Thames does not act as a barrier to these locations compared to those locations south of the River Thames. Change in jobs accessible within 37 mins by zone as a result of Gallions Bridge (am peak period, 2021) 22
The plot below shows the change in the number of economically active people accessible within 37 mins by zone from implementing Gallions Bridge (with Silvertown and Blackwall charged) compared to just implementing Silvertown and Blackwall charged. This measure can be used as a proxy as to the potential attractiveness of a location for businesses being able to access a large workforce. The largest gains are south of the River Thames in East Greenwich and North Bexley, however, large increases are also seen north of the River Thames in parts of Newham, Barking & Dagenham and Redbridge. This is due to these areas gaining access to large population centres south of the River Thames. Change in economically active population within 37 mins by zone as a result of Gallions Bridge (am peak period, 2021) Both plots show the greater potential of Gallions Bridge (compared to Gallions Ferry) to assist regeneration in East and South East London, with areas south of the River Thames gaining improved access to a larger jobs market, and businesses to a larger potential workforce. Areas north of the Thames primarily gain access to a larger potential workforce south of the Thames. Significantly more areas gain from the increased improvement in accessibility provided by a bridge rather than a ferry at Gallions Reach, due to the bridge offering a higher capacity and faster way to cross the river. 23
The table below shows the number of minutes saved for selected journeys south to north of the River Thames and vice versa in the am peak hour in 2021 with the introduction of Gallions Bridge. Substantial time savings can be achieved for cross river journeys through the construction of a bridge at Gallions Reach. For northbound journeys reductions of 43 mins from Thamesmead to Barking, 40 mins from Belvedere to Barking and 39 mins from Thamesmead to the Royals are achieved. Due to less congestion for southbound trips in the am peak, significant but smaller time savings are delivered with a reduction of 31 mins from Barking to Belvedere, 30 mins Barking to Thamesmead and 26 mins from the Royals to Thamesmead and Belvedere. Journey time savings due to Gallions Bridge (am peak hour, 2021) Northbound To Stratford To Royals To Barking To Dagenham Woolwich 2 18 22 22 Thamesmead 15 39 43 20 Belvedere 10 36 40 8 Bexleyheath 2 7 11 1 Southbound To Woolwich To Thamesmead To Belvedere To Bexleyheath Stratford 0 8 7 0 Royals 10 26 26 2 Barking 14 30 31 10 Dagenham 11 27 4-4 24
Belvedere Bridge The plot below shows the change in the number of jobs accessible within 37 mins by zone in the am peak hour in 2021 from implementing Belvedere Bridge (with Silvertown and Blackwall charged) compared to just implementing Silvertown and Blackwall charged. It can be seen that large increases in accessibility occur south of the Thames in North Bexley and West Greenwich, with some zones gaining access to over 150,000-200,000 additional potential jobs. The increase is less north of the Thames, eg in Newham and Barking & Dagenham, but more extensive than with either Gallions Ferry or Gallions Bridge. Change in jobs accessible within 37 mins by zone as a result of Belvedere Bridge (am peak period, 2021) 25
The plot below shows the change in the number of economically active people accessible within 37 mins by zone from implementing Belvedere Bridge (with Silvertown and Blackwall charged) compared to just implementing Silvertown and Blackwall charged. As with the previous plots for access to jobs the largest gains are south of the River Thames in east Greenwich and North Bexley, however, large increases are also seen north of the River Thames in parts of Newham, Barking & Dagenham and Havering. This is due to these areas gaining increased access to the large population centres south of the River Thames. Compared with a bridge at Gallions Reach, a bridge at Belvedere can be seen to be benefitting locations further east to the north of the River Thames due to its more easternly location, while providing less benefit to boroughs such as Greenwich and Tower Hamlets. Change in economically active population within 37 mins by zone as a result of Belvedere Bridge (am peak period, 2021) Both plots show the potential of Belvedere Bridge to assist regeneration in East London, with south of the River Thames gaining improved access to a larger jobs market, and businesses to a larger potential workforce. North of the Thames areas primarily gain access to a larger potential workforce south of the Thames. 26
The table below shows the number of minutes saved for selected journeys south to north of the River Thames and vice versa in the am peak hour in 2021 with the introduction of Belvedere Bridge. Substantial time savings can be achieved for cross river journeys through the construction of a bridge at Belvedere. For northbound journeys, reductions of 26 mins from Thamesmead to Barking and to Dagenham, 33 mins from Belvedere to Barking and 29 mins from Woolwich to Dagenham are achieved. Significant time savings are also delivered for southbound journeys with this option, with reductions of 41 mins from Dagenham to Thamesmead, 30 mins from Barking to Belvedere, and 24 mins from Barking to Thamesmead. Journey time savings due to Belvedere Bridge (am peak hour, 2021) Northbound To Stratford To Royals To Barking To Dagenham Woolwich 0 14 15 29 Thamesmead -1 13 26 26 Belvedere 0 18 33 24 Bexleyheath 0 0 3 11 Southbound To Woolwich To Thamesmead To Belvedere To Bexleyheath Stratford 0-1 7 0 Royals 7 12 18 0 Barking 8 24 30 9 Dagenham 17 41 23 15 27
Re-distribution Cross River Demand The two graphs below show the number of vehicles crossing the river by direction in each of the scenarios in the am peak period. It can be seen that as a total across all eastern river crossings, from Rotherhithe to Dartford, the variation in total demand is less than 1000 vehicles in each direction. This is due to the charge that is applied to Blackwall and all new crossings managing overall cross river demand. The results demonstrate that the majority of trips using the proposed new crossings have changed their choice of crossing to complete their journey, rather than the new crossings encouraging significant numbers of new trips to cross the river. Cross river northbound traffic flows in the am peak hour, 2021 Cross river southbound traffic flows in the am peak hour, 2021 28
The two graphs below show the number of vehicles crossing the river by direction in each of the scenarios in the interpeak (average hour). Overall total flow variance (approx 500 vehs in each direction) for all scenarios is less than in the am peak hour, however, the pattern of demand between crossings in each scenario is similar to the am peak. Cross river northbound traffic flows in the inter peak (average hr), 2021 Cross river southbound traffic flows in the inter peak (average hr) in 2021 29
The two graphs below show the number of vehicles crossing the river by direction in each of the scenarios in the pm peak. Overall total flow variance (over 1000 vehs in each direction) for all scenarios is higher than in the am peak hour due to the additional traffic that is attracted to use Belvedere Bridge in the counter-peak direction (south to north) in the pm peak. Under the charging assumptions in this test Belvedere becomes a much more attractive route for some traffic that previously used Dartford to complete their journey, as Belvedere is charged at ½ the rate of the Dartford cash rate. It is also noted that the same increase occurs in the counter peak direction in the am peak which again is also charged at ½ the rate of Dartford. This may warrant further consideration. Cross river northbound traffic flows in the pm peak, 2021 Cross river southbound traffic flows in the pm peak, 2021 30
The table below shows how much traffic is carried on each new crossing (within their own scenario) for all three time periods. As expected higher flows result from the introduction of the higher capacity bridge crossings at Gallions and Belvedere. River crossings traffic flow in 2021 Northbound Southbound AM peak Woolwich Ferry 150 150 Gallions Ferry 350 200 Gallions Bridge 1350 700 Belvedere Bridge 1100 1500 Interpeak Woolwich Ferry 100 100 Gallions Ferry 100 100 Gallions Bridge 750 750 Belvedere Bridge 1250 900 PM peak Woolwich Ferry 100 250 Gallions Ferry 100 400 Gallions Bridge 1000 1600 Belvedere Bridge 1650 1350 1) Figures rounded to the nearest 50 vehicles 31
Routing of trips that use the new crossings A charged higher capacity Woolwich Ferry The plot below shows the routing and number of trips that are forecast to use a charged higher capacity ferry in the am peak in 2021. Routing of trips using a charged higher capacity Woolwich Ferry (am peak 2021) It can be seen that the main roads used to access the ferry south the River Thames are Beresford Street, Western Way and Eastern Way, and north of the River Thames are Woolwich Manor Royal Docks Road and the North Circular. 32
A charged Gallions Ferry The plot below shows the routing and number of trips that are forecast to use a charged Gallions Ferry in the am peak in 2021. Higher flows are attracted to use Gallions Ferry rather than Woolwich Ferry, reflecting that Gallions Ferry has double the capacity of today s Woolwich Ferry, while the future upgrade of Woolwich Ferry would only increase capacity by 30%. The main roads used to access the bridge south the River Thames are Eastern Way, and Bronze Age Way. North of the River Thames, traffic predominately uses the Royal Docks Road and the North Circular. Routing of trips using a charged Gallions Ferry (am peak 2021) 33
A charged Gallions Bridge The plot below shows the routing and number of trips that are forecast to use a charged Gallions Bridge in the am peak in 2021. Routing of trips using a charged Gallions Bridge (am peak 2021) Much higher flows are attracted to use the bridge rather than the ferry at Gallions Reach. The main roads used to access the bridge south of the River Thames are Eastern Way, Bronze Age Way and the A206 to the M25. Traffic can also be seen to use Knee Hill and Harrow Manor Way to reach the crossing. North of the River Thames traffic predominately uses the Royal Docks Road, the North Circular and to a lesser extent the A13 and Royal Albert Way. 34
A charged Belvedere Bridge The plot below shows the routing and number of trips that are forecast to use a charged crossing at Belvedere in the am peak in 2021. Routing of trips using a charged Belvedere Bridge (am peak 2021) The main roads used to access the bridge south of the River Thames are Plumstead Road, Western Way, Eastern Way, Bronze Age Way and Picardy Manorway. North of the River Thames traffic predominately uses the A13, M25 and North Circular. 35
Origins of trips using new river crossings The plots below show the origin of trips using each new crossing in the am peak. As such these maps forecast the areas from which people will originate from that will use the new crossings, and hence most directly benefit from the additional connectivity provided by each new crossing. For the purposes of this analysis a local car trip is defined as having one or both ends of a trip in Tower Hamlets, Newham, Barking & Dagenham, Havering, Lewisham, Greenwich or Bexley. A charged higher capacity Woolwich Ferry The plot below shows the am peak hour origins for vehicles using Woolwich Ferry. It can be seen that the crossing is mainly used by residents from north Bexley, north east Greenwich, south east Newham and south Barking & Dagenham. 100% of car trips using the ferry in both directions are local. Origin of trips using a charged higher capacity Woolwich Ferry (am peak hour, 2021) 36
A charged Gallions Ferry The plot below shows the am peak hour origins for vehicles using Gallions Ferry. It can be seen that the crossing is mainly used by residents from north Bexley, north east Greenwich, south east Newham and south Barking & Dagenham. 100% of northbound car trips and 98% of southbounds car trips using the ferry are local. Origin of trips using a charged Gallions Ferry (am peak hour, 2021) 37
A charged Gallions Bridge The plot below shows the am peak hour origins for vehicles using Gallions Bridge. It can be seen that the crossing is mainly used by residents from north Bexley, north east Greenwich, south east Newham and south Barking & Dagenham. Other areas that generate trips are Havering and North Kent. In total the vast majority of car trips are local with 93% of car trips defined as such for northbound movements across Gallions Bridge, and a slightly lower figure of 87% for southbound car trips. Origin of trips using a charged Gallions Bridge (am peak hour, 2021) 38
A charged Belvedere Bridge The plot below shows the am peak hour origins for vehicles using Belvedere Bridge. It can be seen that the crossing is mainly used by residents from north Bexley, north east Greenwich, south east Newham and south Barking & Dagenham. Other areas that generate trips are Havering and North Kent. In total the vast majority of car trips are local with 97% of car trips defined as such for northbound movements across Belvedere Bridge, and a slightly lower figure of 91% for southbound car trips. Origin of trips using a charged Belvedere Bridge (am peak hour, 2021) 39
Assignment Impacts A charged higher capacity Woolwich Ferry Traffic flow and junction delay plots have not been presented for the charged higher capacity Woolwich scenario, as in total the enhanced ferry only provides additional capacity for approx 60 vehicles (per direction) over the existing ferry service. As previously stated the traffic model is strategic in nature and it would not be appropriate to use this type of model to identify small potential changes in flows and delays as a result of this scheme across a wide area. Forecast traffic flows using the enhanced charged Woolwich Ferry have been presented in the Cross River Demand section of the report. It is forecast that the two way combined flow on the ferry will fall by approximately 10% (50 vehicles) due to the charge that is applied to the service. As such it is expected that a change of this magnitude would have a very limited impact on the wider strategic network and a small impact on roads closer to the ferry. 40
Gallions Ferry Volume of traffic on the highway network in the am peak hour The figure below shows the change in flows in the am peak in 2021 with the introduction of Gallions Ferry (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. There is some reduction in traffic in Woolwich, Bexleyheath and the M25. There are also increases in the Thamesmead area, notably on the A2016 Eastern Way and small increases on the A406 North Circular. Change in traffic flows due to Gallions Ferry (am peak hour, 2021) 41
Delays on the highway network in the am peak hour The figure below shows the change in delay at junctions for the am peak hour in 2021 with the introduction of a Gallions Ferry (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. The delay that was previously experienced at the location of Woolwich Ferry has now been removed, and been replaced with similar delays at Gallions Reach. However, queuing traffic waiting to use Woolwich Ferry would have more of an adverse impact on other traffic due to the more physically constrained area available to queuing traffic. Change in junction delay due to Gallions Ferry (am peak, 2021) Gallions Ferry reduces congestion in the am peak by relieving alternative cross river routes with congested hours falling by 236 hours. At a borough level, Greenwich (2%), Bexley (2%) and Barking and Dagenham (3%) experience a fall in congested hours. 42
Volume of traffic on the highway network in the inter-peak The figure below shows the change in flows for an average hour in the inter-peak in 2021 with the introduction of Gallions Ferry (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. There are similar changes in the inter-peak compared to the am peak with reductions in traffic in Woolwich. There are also increases in the Thamesmead area, notably on the A2016 Eastern Way and small increases on the A406 North Circular. Change in traffic flows due to Gallions Ferry (inter peak, 2021) 43
Delays on the highway network in the inter-peak The figure below shows the change in delay at junctions for an average hour in the inter peak in 2021 with the introduction of Gallions Ferry (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. The changes in delays experienced in the inter-peak are similar to those found in the am peak hour. The delay previously experienced in Woolwich has now been transferred to Gallions Reach. Change in junction delay due to Gallions Ferry (inter peak, 2021) Gallions Ferry reduces congestion in the interpeak by relieving alternative cross river routes with congested hours falling by 57 hours. At a borough level, Gallions Ferry has limited impact on borough level congestion with congestion falling by less than 1% in Greenwich. 44
Volume of traffic on the highway network in the pm peak hour The figure below shows the change in flows for the pm peak hour in 2021 with the introduction of Gallions Ferry (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. Southbound traffic in Silvertown Tunnel and on the approaches to where Woolwich Ferry was located falls, while flows increase on the approaches to Gallions Ferry and on Eastern Way. Change in traffic flows due to Gallions Ferry (pm peak hour, 2021) 45
Delays on the highway network in the pm peak The figure below shows the change in flows for the pm peak hour in 2021 with the introduction of Gallions Ferry (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. The changes in delays experienced in the pm peak are similar to those found in the am peak hour and inter-peak. The delay previously experienced at the location of Woolwich Ferry has now been transferred to Gallions Reach. Change in junction delay due to Gallions Ferry (pm peak, 2021) Gallions Ferry reduces congestion in the pm peak by relieving alternative cross river routes with congested hours falling by 139 hours. At a borough level, Greenwich (2%) experiences a fall in congested hours. 46
Gallions Bridge Volume of traffic on the highway network in the am peak hour The figure below shows the change in flows in the am peak in 2021 with the introduction of Gallions Bridge (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. It can be seen that there is a large increase on roads approaching the new crossing, on Eastern Way, Bronze Age Way and on the North Circular. However, there is a reduction in flows in Woolwich Town Centre and part of the Royal Docks due to the removal of Woolwich Ferry. Blackwall Tunnel, Silvertown Tunnel and Dartford Crossing also see falls in traffic due to the new crossing at Gallions offering a more direct / less congested route for some journeys. Traffic flows also fall on strategic roads such as on sections of the M25, A2 and A13. While in the north of Bexley some minor roads see falls and rises in flows as traffic shifts from using the Woolwich Ferry to the new crossing at Gallions Reach. Change in traffic flows due to Gallions Bridge (am peak hour, 2021) 47
Delays on the highway network in the am peak hour The figure below shows the change in delay at junctions for the am peak hour in 2021 with the introduction of Gallions Bridge (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. As noted previously the RXHAM is strategic in nature and smaller changes in delay at junctions may not be attributable to the introduction of a new crossing. The figure shows that the largest reductions in delay at individual junctions (50 to 100 hours) are in Woolwich Town Centre due to the removal of the Woolwich Ferry and the associated vehicles which used the crossing. Smaller falls (under 10 hours) are also seen on the southern approaches to the Blackwall and Silvertown Tunnels as traffic diverts away from these routes. However, due to the introduction of a bridge at Gallions Reach, junction delay increases on the approaches to this crossing, eg on Eastern Way (10 to 50 hours), Bronze Age Way (under 10 hours), A13 (highest delay 50 to 100 hours) and A117 (under 10 hours). Change in junction delay due to Gallions Bridge (am peak, 2021) The introduction of a new charged river crossing reduces congestion by relieving alternative cross river routes with congestion hours falling by 310 hours. At a borough level, Greenwich (9%) and Barking Dagenham (4%) experience falls in congested hours, while delay in Newham (7%) increases due to a larger volume of traffic now being able to cross the river in the peak hour direction. Delay in Bexley increases by 1%. 48
Volume of traffic on the highway network in the interpeak The figure below shows the change in flows for an average hour in the interpeak in 2021 with the introduction of Gallions Bridge (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. There is a large increase on roads immediately adjacent to the new crossing at Gallions Reach, on Eastern Way, Bronze Age Way and on the North Circular. However, there is a reduction in flows in Woolwich Town Centre and part of the Royal Docks due to the removal of Woolwich Ferry. Blackwall Tunnel, Silvertown Tunnel and Dartford Crossing also see falls in traffic flows due to the new crossing at Gallions offering a more direct/ less congested route for their journey. Traffic flows also fall on strategic roads such as on sections of the M25, A2, A12 and A13. While in the north of Bexley some minor roads see increases and decreases in flows as traffic shifts from using the Woolwich Ferry to the new crossing at Gallions Reach. Overall the pattern of change in traffic flows is similar compared to the am peak hour, although flows are lower. Change in traffic flows due to Gallions Bridge (inter peak, 2021) 49
Delays on the highway network in the interpeak The figure below shows that increases or decreases in delay as a result of changing traffic patterns are much less pronounced than in the am peak due to the lower flows that would have used the new crossing in the inter peak. Again the largest reductions in delay at individual junctions (10 to 50 hours) are in Woolwich Town Centre due to the removal of the Woolwich Ferry and the associated vehicles which used the crossing. While junction delay increases on the approaches to the new bridge on Eastern Way, A13, Harrow Manor Way and Knee Hill (under 10 hours). Increases of 10 to 50 hours are seen in Erith Town Centre. Change in junction delay due to Gallions Bridge (inter peak, 2021) The introduction of a new charged river crossing reduces congestion by relieving alternative cross river routes with congested hours falling by 90 hours. At a borough level, Greenwich experiences a fall in congested hours (4%), while delay in Bexley increases (3%). 50
Volume of traffic on the highway network in the pm peak hour The figure below shows the change in flows for the pm peak hour in 2021 with the introduction of Gallions Bridge (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. Overall the pattern of change in traffic flows is broadly similar compared to the am peak and the inter peak average hour. However, due to higher flows it is noticable that more minor roads across Newham, Barking & Dagenham, Greenwich and Bexley show increases or decreases than in the other time periods. There is a large increase on roads immediately adjacent to the new crossing at Gallions Reach, on Eastern Way, Bronze Age Way and on the North Circular. However, there is a reduction in flows in Woolwich Town Centre and part of the Royal Docks due to the removal of Woolwich Ferry. Blackwall Tunnel, Silvertown Tunnel and Dartford Crossing also see falls in traffic flows due to the new crossing at Gallions offering a more direct/ less congested route for their journey. Traffic flows also falls on strategic roads such as on sections of the A2, A12 and A13. While in the north of Bexley and south of Newham some minor roads see increases and decreases in flows as traffic shifts from using the Woolwich Ferry to the new crossing at Gallions Reach. Change in traffic flows due to Gallions Bridge (pm peak, 2021) 51
Delays on the highway network in the pm peak The figure below shows the change in delay at junctions for the pm peak hour in 2021 with the introduction of Gallions Reach Bridge (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. The figure shows that the largest reductions in delay at individual junctions (50 to 100 hours) are on the M25 and A13, with smaller reductions in Woolwich Town Centre (10 to 50 hours). Increases can be seen on Bronze Age Way (50 to 100 hours), with smaller increases (under 10 hours) spread out across East and South East London. Change in junction delay due to Gallions Bridge (pm peak, 2021) The introduction of a new charged river crossing reduces congestion by relieving alternative cross river routes with congested hours falling by 1089 hours. At a borough level, Greenwich (12%) and Newham (6%) experience falls in congested hours, while delay in Bexley (4%) increases. 52
Belvedere Bridge Volume of traffic on the highway network in the am peak hour The figure below shows the change in flows in the am peak in 2021 with the introduction of Belvedere Bridge (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. In this scenario Woolwich Ferry remains but is charged and operates with an extra 30% capacity compared to today s levels. Belvedere Bridge reduces traffic at Blackwall, Silvertown, Woolwich and most notably Dartford. This does however increase traffic in Bexley, most notably on the A2016 Eastern Way and the B253 Picardy Manorway/Picardy Road. There are also increases on the A13 east of the new crossing due to the transfer of traffic from the Dartford Crossing to the Belvedere Bridge. Change in traffic flows due to Belvedere Bridge (am peak, 2021) 53
Delays on the highway network in the am peak hour The figure below shows the change in delay at junctions for the am peak hour in 2021 with the introduction of Belvedere Bridge (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. There are relatively small amounts of increased delay on the approach routes to the new Belvedere crossing in north Bexley and also in Barking & Dagenham. There are some reductions in delay at the A406 and Dartford due to some traffic moving away from these routes. Change in junction delay due to Belvedere Bridge (am peak, 2021) The introduction of a new charged river crossing reduces congestion in the am peak by relieving alternative cross river routes with congested hours falling by 277 hours. At a borough level, Bexley (2%), Barking & Dagenham (1%) and Newham (3%) experience falls in congested hours, and delays in Thurrock (7%) also fall. 54
Volume of traffic on the highway network in the inter-peak The figure below shows the change in flows for an average hour in the inter-peak in 2021 with the introduction of Belvedere Bridge (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. The changes in volume generated by the Belvedere crossing in the inter-peak are very similar to that of the am peak, with traffic from Blackwall, Silvertown, Woolwich and Dartford, transferring to the new Belvedere crossing. Thus increasing traffic on the A2016 Eastern Way, B253 Picardy Manorway/ Picardy Road and on the A13 east of the new crossing. Change in traffic flows due to Belvedere Bridge (inter peak, 2021) 55
Delays on the highway network in the inter-peak The figure below shows the change in delay at junctions for an average hour in the inter peak hour in 2021 with the introduction of Belvedere Bridge (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. The changes in delay in the inter-peak are very similar to those of the am peak. Delays increase on the approach routes to the new Belvedere Bridge in both north Bexley and also in Barking & Dagenham. There are some reductions in delay on the A406 and at Dartford due to traffic transferring from Dartford. Change in junction delay due to Belvedere Bridge (inter peak, 2021) The introduction of a new charged river crossing has a broadly neutral impact on congestion in the inter peak with congestion hours falling by 49 hours. Thurrock (9%) and Greenwich (3%) see falls in congested, while Bexley (4%), Barking & Dagenham (2%) and Havering (1%) see increases. 56
Volume of traffic on the highway network in the pm peak hour The figure below shows the change in flows for an average hour in the pm peak hour in 2021 with the introduction of Belvedere Bridge (plus Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged) compared with only implementing Silvertown Tunnel and Blackwall both charged. Belvedere Bridge reduces traffic at Blackwall, Silvertown, Woolwich and most notably Dartford. This does however increase traffic in Bexley, most notably on the A2016 Eastern Way and the B253 Picardy Manorway/Picardy Road. There are also increases on the A13 east of the new crossing and on the M25. Change in traffic flows due to Belvedere Bridge (pm peak, 2021) 57