Katy I.S.D. Demographic Update

Katy I.S.D. Demographic Update April 19, 2017 Primary vs. Secondary Data Sources Secondary Data: Texas State Data Center, Houston-Galveston Area Council of Governments, and many other entities use extrapolation methods PASA studies the following: Primary Data: Leading Indicators of Employment Housing Projections for Single-Family and Multi-Family Units Ratios of Students per Occupied Home & Apartment Assessment of Regeneration & Decline for Existing Subdivisions 1

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Population & Survey Analysts Katy I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Highest Growth Districts 2016 PEIMS, Based on Numeric Gain in Students Growth Enrollment 2015 16 Enrollment 2016 17 Rank District Name Numeric Percent 1 Frisco ISD 53,300 55,923 2,623 4.9% 2 Katy ISD 72,952 75,428 2,476 3.4% 3 Prosper ISD 8,296 9,998 1,702 20.5% 4 Conroe ISD 58,239 59,764 1,525 2.6% 5 Alvin ISD 22,183 23,587 1,404 6.3% 6 Klein ISD 50,594 51,810 1,216 2.4% 7 Lamar CISD 29,692 30,829 1,137 3.8% 8 Comal ISD 21,163 22,240 1,077 5.1% 9 Denton ISD 27,559 28,628 1,069 3.9% 10 Leander ISD 37,158 38,226 1,068 2.9% 11 Northwest ISD 20,976 22,044 1,068 5.1% 12 Northside ISD 105,110 106,145 1,035 1.0% 13 Fort Bend ISD 73,115 74,146 1,031 1.4% 14 Cypress Fairbanks ISD 113,936 114,868 932 0.8% 15 New Caney ISD 13,816 14,677 861 6.2% 3

Numeric Change In Student Enrollment Total Enrollment Fall (Pre-PEIMS) 2015 4 th Week to Survey, Fall 2010-11 2016 Numeric Change In Student Enrollment Total Enrollment Fall (Pre-PEIMS) 2011 4 th Week to Survey, Fall 2016 2010-11 4

Historical Growth Trends Sept 2015 % Chg 15-16/ 14-15 Oct 3 2016 % Chg 16-15/ 15-14 EE 539-9.87% 604 10.74% PK 1,474 1.94% 1,563 5.66% KN 5,272 0.17% 5,223-0.95% 1 5,619 5.80% 5,702 1.46% 2 5,540 5.24% 5,777 4.10% 3 5,572 8.11% 5,825 4.34% 4 5,386 4.16% 5,826 7.55% 5 5,366 1.23% 5,535 3.05% 6 5,555 5.99% 5,609 0.96% 7 5,473 2.86% 5,800 5.64% 8 5,507 2.59% 5,636 2.29% 9 5,814 1.40% 6,024 3.48% 10 5,731 7.18% 5,837 1.81% 11 5,281 5.66% 5,490 3.80% 12 4,696 2.98% 4,949 5.12% Total 72,825 3.92% 75,398 3.41% Enrollment 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 Past Growth Rates 6.01% 8.07%6.12% 4.11% 4.26%4.04% 3.48% 2.61% 2.92% 6.25% 4.52%3.90% 3.41% 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 5

Unique Demographic Characteristics Katy I.S.D. Commute time to work: 35 minutes for Katy I.S.D. relative to 34 minutes for Cy-Fair, 23 minutes for Fort Bend, 33.5 for Lamar, and 30 for the Houston Metro Area; Economically Disadvantaged students: 28% in Katy I.S.D. compared to 59% for State; High STAAR passage rate: 88% for Katy I.S.D., relative to 73% for the State; Highly educated population: 46% have bachelor s degree, compared to 42% in Spring Branch I.S.D., 38% in Cy-Fair I.S.D., and 32% in Houston Consolidated Metro Area; High median income: $100,386 for Katy I.S.D., compared to $90,238 for Fort Bend, $60,406 for Spring Branch, $87,555 for Lamar C.I.S.D., and $61,465 for the Metro Area Rank Economically Disadvantaged Student Population: 2015-16 Of 63 Districts with 20,000 or more students District Name Economically Disadvantaged Students 2015 16 Total Enrollment 2015 16 % Disadvantaged 2015 16 1 FRISCO ISD 5,753 53,300 10.79% 2 ALLEN ISD 3,100 20,822 14.89% 3 LEANDER ISD 6,907 37,158 18.59% 4 NORTHWEST ISD 3,907 20,976 18.63% 5 KELLER ISD 8,110 34,180 23.73% 6 PEARLAND ISD 5,592 21,093 26.51% 7 ROUND ROCK ISD 13,095 47,827 27.38% 8 CLEAR CREEK ISD 11,360 41,226 27.56% 9 KATY ISD 20,631 72,952 28.28% 10 PLANO ISD 15,591 54,570 28.57% Katy I.S.D. has ranked 8 th or 9 th for at least the last 5 years 6

Rank 2015-16 STAAR Results 3 rd -8 th Grade School District (Districts w/>20,000 Students) 2015-16 Enrollment 2015-16 Level II STAAR Passage Rate 2013-14 Level II 2012-13 Level II 2011-12 Level II 1 ALLEN ISD 20,822 91.91% 92.04% 92.05% 91.77% 2 FRISCO ISD 53,300 90.62% 91.90% 92.37% 91.92% 3 PEARLAND ISD 21,093 89.69% 85.83% 85.46% 84.98% 4 PLANO ISD 54,570 87.80% 86.15% 85.16% 84.56% 5 KATY ISD 72,952 87.56% 87.21% 85.50% 86.68% 6 ROUND ROCK ISD 47,827 86.95% 83.96% 83.50% 82.76% 7 CONROE ISD 58,239 84.48% 84.12% 84.16% 82.46% 8 MCKINNEY ISD 24,765 84.46% 84.75% 84.05% 82.81% 9 LEANDER ISD 37,158 84.44% 83.32% 84.45% 84.80% 10 COMAL ISD 21,163 84.29% 82.27% 84.11% 83.01% Charter and Private School Enrollment Trends KN through 12th Grade Enrollment of Katy ISD Student Population 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Katy ISD 68,349 96.1% 70,812 95.4% 73,028 94.1% Private Schools 1,069 1.5% 1,538 2.1% 1,876 2.4% Charter Schools 1,727 2.4% 1,876 2.5% 2,723 3.5% TOTAL 71,145 100.0% 74,226 100.0% 77,627 100.0% 7

Population & Survey Analysts Katy I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment 8

Population & Survey Analysts Katy I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment Long Range Planning Katy I.S.D. Development Density % of KISD Built out 45% Active 8% Undev. planned Undev. no plans Parks, Preserves, Reservoirs 8% 18% 21% 9

Parcels 5+ Acres For Sale in Katy I.S.D. Student Growth by Type of Housing Resident Students in 2015 Resident Students in 2016 Added Students 2015 to 2016 # % Percent of Growth Apartments 6,839 7,818 979 14% 38% Mobile Home Parks 1,250 1,259 9 1% 0% Subdivisions - Built-out 60,232 60,290 58 0% 2% Subdivisions - Actively Building 3,489 4,987 1,498 43% 59% Townhomes 47 57 10 21% 0% 10

K.I.S.D. Housing Starts & Closings: 4 th Q 2016 Katy ranks 4 th in housing starts for the 4 th Q 2016 -- behind Fort Bend, Cy- Fair and Lamar - among 61 Houston area school districts K.I.S.D. ranks 3 rd in new home closings for the 4 th Q 2016 For 4Q of 2016, K.I.S.D. had 9% of all Houston area housing starts -- and also 9% of housing inventory for sale New home starts in the 4Q of 2016 were 410, down from 564 in 4Q of 2015 a decline of 37.6% New home starts for the year were down from 2,742 in 2015 to 2,193 starts in 2016 a decline of 25%) The number of vacant developed lots decreased from 4Q 2015 to 4Q 2016 Projected New Housing Occupancies August 2016 to October 2021 11

Projected New Housing Occupancies October 2021 to October 2026 Projected New Housing Occupancies August 2016 to October 2026 12

The housing projections for the annual 2016-17 Demographic Update in Oct., 2016 were conservative because of the continued low oil prices Katy I.S.D. Housing Update Since Oct. 2016 PASA has continued to follow the most volatile of the subdivisions and masterplanned communities to see if they would pick up the pace potentially adding more homes than PASA had projected in Oct. 2016 As of April 5, 2017, Cross Creek will be up ~70 more homes (with 310 new occupancies by Oct. 2017) Avalon at Spring Green will be ahead of PASA s projections by 6 more homes (also in the south) Cane Island will be ahead of PASA s projections by 125 new occupancies Enclave at Katy (in the near-in north) will be up ~7 more homes than projected Elyson (in the north) is building ahead of PASA s projections so, all potentially volatile developments are ahead of Oct., 2016 construction schedules Projected New Housing Occupancies October 2026 to Build-Out 13

Subdivision Names or Planning 2016-2021- 2016- Owner(s) Names: Unit: 2021 2026 2026 Elyson (Newland Communities) 1, 2, 4C, 4D 1263 2503 3766 Northwest Katy (Troy Maxwell) 1, 6B 471 2005 2476 Cane Island 20A, 30, 31B 73A, 73C, 73D, 1078 645 1723 Cross Creek 73E, 73F, 73G, 73H, 73J 1107 168 1275 Ventana Lakes 6B 713 217 930 Marcello/Treviso/Camillo 11A 330 465 795 Morton Creek Ranch 11B, 23C 434 297 731 King Crossing 1, 4A 540 100 640 Katy Lakes 4A, 4B 218 357 575 "Lin Family & Sweeney Estate" 2, 20A 64 500 564 Westfield Village 7B 135 423 558 "BMG/Sowell" 7B 120 410 530 "Longenbaugh" 1 85 445 530 "Katy Investments" 1, 11B 69 450 519 Largest Growth Single-Family Developments Total (Above-Listed Subdivisions): 6,627 8,985 15,612 Total Subdivision Housing Projected: 11,617 15,588 27,205 Apartment LUZ Occupied Occupied 2015 Pre 2015 2016 Units to be Occupied Total Park West Green 33 0 0 180 180 Williamsburg III 34 0 0 336 336 "Parkside NEC" 34 0 0 240 240 Heights at Park Row 39 0 282 60 342 Blackhaw High Rise 39 0 0 250 250 H6 48 0 405 135 540 Broadstone Energy Park 48 0 0 416 416 Parkside at Memorial 49 0 23 356 379 "Duke MF" 49 0 0 225 225 Haven at Highland Knolls 66 0 2 129 131 Clay at Grand Parkway 12B 0 0 320 320 Marquis at Katy 22E 233 10 15 258 "Greenhouse Road Apts" 37A 0 0 350 350 "Greenhouse Road West" 37A 0 0 350 350 Lynd Greenhouse 37A 0 120 230 350 Ten Oaks 37B 0 0 382 382 Lenox Trails 42A 0 0 389 389 Crossing at Katy Ranch 42A 0 290 28 318 Bella Terra 42A 0 27 427 454 Multi-Family Developments Partially Occupied, Under Construction, & Other Near- Term 14

Apartment LUZ Occupied Occupied 2015 Pre 2015 2016 Units to be Occupied Total Vista at Grand Crossing 42B 91 232 28 351 Elan 99 West 42C 0 335 25 360 Haven at Westgreen 44B 16 199 10 225 Streamsong 44B 0 80 220 300 Vue Kingsland 47B 0 404 20 424 Aldeia West 47B 0 250 55 305 Multiple Owners 52A 0 0 183 183 Sorrel 61B 0 370 10 380 Broadstone Falcon Landing (MF/TH) 61E 0 151 233 384 Multiple Owners 67B 0 0 300 300 "A S 134" 68A 0 0 270 270 Grand at La Canterra 69B 0 261 10 271 Katy Pointe 6A 0 0 250 250 Park Lane Fulshear 73I 0 0 420 420 Stratus Cinco Ranch 78A 0 106 80 186 Sovereign at Cinco 78B 102 183 15 300 Palms at Cinco Ranch 78B 200 0 160 360 Cinco Ranch IV 79A 0 0 350 350 Marquis at Cinco Ranch 79F 147 30 3 180 Total 7,460 12,009 Multi-Family Developments Partially Occupied, Under Construction, & Other Near- Term Multi-Family Developments Long-Term Planned Apartment LUZ Total No. of Units "AVEX" 1 1,710 Monterrey Oaks 1 900 Multiple Owners 1 590 Bridgeland 2 720 Katy ISD 17 180 "Lennar Multifamily" 33 338 "Milestone Colonial" 33 250 Multiple Owners 33 230 "Perrin White" 34 200 "Westside Venture" 34 670 Williamsburg I & II 34 600 "Central Park West" 39 250 "Town Centre Katy Omega III" 41 195 Multiple Owners 41 220 "Katy Boardwalk" 53 370 Multiple Owners 11C 350 "Clay 628" 12A 720 Apartment LUZ Total No. of Units Mason McAlister Place 13B 240 "MCI Grand Parkway" 13B 320 "Prima Terra" 16A 280 Multiple Owners 16B 250 Multiple Owners 24A 400 "Forresta" 37A 280 "Odonoghue/Bakhr/Leobardo" 4A 220 Multiple Owners 4D 800 "Tsakaris" 50A 430 Multiple Owners 51A 460 "HLB Harris Group" 6C 870 Multiple Owners 79C 160 Multiple Owners 7A 163 Westfield Village 7B 440 "BMG/Sowell" 7B 520 "Mason & Clay" 7B 370 Total: 8,493 15

Projected New Housing Occupancies 2016 2026 Single- Family Housing Multi- Family Housing TH & Condos Total: Aug 2016 Oct. 2017 1,862 1,756 51 3,669 Oct. 2017 Oct. 2018 2,156 1,341 9 3,506 Oct. 2018 Oct. 2019 2,340 1,532 10 3,882 Oct. 2019 Oct. 2020 2,613 2,292 23 4,928 Oct. 2020 Oct. 2021 2,802 2,401 20 5,223 Oct. 2021 Oct. 2022 2,965 2,052 11 5,028 Oct. 2022 Oct. 2023 2,934 1,869 3 4,806 Oct. 2023 Oct. 2024 3,023 1,509 1 4,533 Oct. 2024 Oct. 2025 3,270 1,179-4,449 Oct. 2025 Oct. 2026 3,466 870-4,336 Aug 2016 Oct 2021 11,773 9,322 113 21,208 Oct 2022 Oct 2026 15,658 7,479 15 23,152 Aug 2016 Oct 2026 27,431 16,801 128 44,360 Population & Survey Analysts Katy I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment 16

Ratios of Students per Household Single Family Homes 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0.72 0.73 0.72 0.72 Apartments 0.35 0.34 0.36 0.36.72 students per home.36 students per unit Population & Survey Analysts Katy I.S.D. Demographic Trends Employment Trends Housing Projections Ratios: Students per Household Projected Student Enrollment 17

Moderate Growth Scenario Projected Enrollment at PEIMS Snapshot 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Enrollment 77,627 79,856 81,908 84,066 86,341 88,647 90,868 93,129 95,537 98,006 % Growth 2.96 2.87 2.57 2.63 2.71 2.67 2.51 2.49 2.59 2.58 Growth 2,229 2,228 2,053 2,158 2,275 2,306 2,221 2,261 2,408 2,468 Three Scenarios of Growth Enrollment 110,000 105,000 100,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 2011 2017 2026 High Growth 2021 88,083 2026 102,173 Moderate Growth 2021 86,341 2026 98,006 Low Growth 2021 84,740 2026 92,417 18

Bilingual Campuses Denoted as BIL Projected Elementary Students By Current Attendance Zone (Capacity Shown in Parentheses) Projected Elementary Students By Current Attendance Zone (Capacity Shown in Parentheses) Bilingual Campuses Denoted as BIL 19

Bilingual Campuses Denoted as BIL Projected Elementary Students By Current Attendance Zone (Capacity Shown in Parentheses) Bilingual Campuses Denoted as BIL Projected Elementary Students By Current Attendance Zone (Capacity Shown in Parentheses) 20

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Population & Survey Analysts Long-Term Enrollment & Housing Outlook Some Texas suburban districts have built-out rapidly like Spring Branch I.S.D. and majority of housing and enrollment growth occurring within a 10-15 year time frame Enrollment and housing growth in Katy I.S.D. to date has been spread out over a ~26 year period partly due to the large geographic size of K.I.S.D. Conservatively, ~47,175 housing units are projected over the next ten years. This represents 31% of all housing that will exist in the District in 2025 (with ~105,500 units now). K.I.S.D. will continue to build-out after the ten-year time frame of this study - - with ~31,000 housing units projected by PASA from 2025 to build-out. Katy I.S.D. Demographic Update April 19, 2017 22