Team 10 Texas Rangers v. Nelson Cruz Brief in support of Nelson Cruz
Introduction In order for any team to succeed in the American League, it is vital that they have a lineup that is able to hit the ball. Furthermore, the Right Field position is very important to any organization s success. Nelson Cruz is a player that hits the ball very well and a player that any team would love to have hit at the top of their lineup. Cruz is by all means worth $5.3 million a year. Factors to reach this conclusion include: (1) Nelson Cruz s performance during the 2011 season, (2) the length and consistency of Nelson Cruz s career contribution, (3) 2011 salaries of comparable players based on their 2010 performance, and (4) Texas Rangers performance during Cruz s career. 2011 Season: A Statistical Overview In 2011, Nelson Cruz had an effective year, culminating in being named the Most Valuable Player of the 2011 American League Championship Series. In 124 games, Cruz had a.263 batting average with an on base percentage of.312, 125 hits, 28 doubles, 29 home runs,.509 slugging percentage and 64 runs scored. Cruz s batting average, slugging percentage, hits and homeruns were all above the league average. His performance in the League Championship Series was remarkable- outshining his still-solid regular season performance. In the Championship Series, Cruz batted.364, with 6 homeruns, 2 doubles, 13 runs batted in and a slugging percentage of a staggering 1.273. His performance was vital in the Texas Rangers winning the pennant and it earned him the most valuable player award for the series. It can be argued that the Texas Rangers would not have won the ALCS without Cruz s outstanding performance.
Career: A statistical Overview Cruz s career batting average is.270 with 108 doubles, 106 homeruns, 323 runs batted in,.330 on base percentage and a slugging percentage of.504. However, since Cruz became an everyday player in 2009 his batting average has been.278 with 80 doubles 84 homeruns and 241 runs batted in. Cruz has hit above.300 twice in his short career and is evolving nicely as a power hitter. [All statistics found at http://www.mlb.com] 2011 Arbitration Comparable Right Fielders In 2011, there were several outfielders who were eligible for salary arbitration for the first time. The following chart lists all of these pitchers and their 2011 salary. Player 2011 Salary Hunter Pence $6,900,000 Josh Willingham $6,000,000 Delmon Young $5,375,000 Rajai Davis $5,250,000 Carlos Quentin $5,050,000 B.J Upton $4,825,000 Michael Bourn $4,400,000 Cruz is requesting a salary of $5.3 million. This is a very reasonable request given the information provided above. Cruz is more valuable than Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton, whose salaries most resemble the Rangers offer. Further, Cruz is more valuable than Delmon Young and is also more valuable than Josh Willingham, making it a bargain to get him for $300,000
less. The player s Major League Service Time (MJST) who is the most similar to Cruz is Carlos Quentin. These player s 2010 statistics will now be compared to those of Cruz s 2011 season. Michael Bourn In 2010, Michael Bourn s batting average was.265 with 25 doubles, 2 homeruns and 38 runs batted in. Although Bourn s batting average was close to that of Cruz s, his offensive production was far below that of Nelson Cruz with Cruz hitting over ten times the number of homeruns and driving in almost triple the number of runs. [All statistics found at http://www.mlb.com] B.J. Upton In 2010, Upton had a productive season, yet only batted.237 with 38 doubles, 18 homeruns and 62 runs batted in. Upton s 2010 salary was higher than the offer proposed by the Texas Rangers to Nelson Cruz, yet Upton was less productive. Cruz s batting average was nearly 30 points higher and he hit more homeruns and drove in more runs. [All statistics found at http://www.mlb.com] Delmon Young In 2010, Delmon Young had a batting average of 2.98 with 46 doubles, 21 homeruns and 112 runs batted in. Although Young s batting average was higher he has only hit above.300, while Cruz has twice. Further, Cruz hit more homeruns in 95 fewer at bats. [All statistics found at http://www.mlb.com] Josh Willingham In 2010, Josh Willingham also had a productive season hitting.268 with 19 doubles 16 homeruns and 56 runs batted in. Willingham s salary is $300,000 more than the offer proposed by Nelson Cruz, yet he was not as productive as Cruz. Willingham played in fewer games, hit
fewer home runs, drive in fewer runs and only batted 5 points higher than Cruz. Further, Cruz has led his team to the World Series two consecutive years, whereas Willingham has played on teams unable to make the playoffs. [All statistics found at http://www.mlb.com] Carlos Quentin In 2010, Carlos Quentin had a less productive year than Nelson Cruz, hitting.243 with 25 doubles, 26 homeruns and 87 runs batted in. The two players drove in the same number of runs, and although Quentin hit a couple more homeruns his batting average was much lower than Cruz s. Further, it can be assumed that if Cruz was to have played in the same number of games that Quentin did, he would have hit more homeruns. [All statistics found at http://www.mlb.com] In order to ease the comparison of all the players, we have attached as Exhibit A a collection of comparison charts that show comparisons of Bourn, Upton, and Cruz s stats and the league average (blue) by season. Remember that the season of note for Bourn (orange) and Upton (purple) are 2010. The season of note for Nelson Cruz (green) is 2011. Attached as Exhibit B are comparison graphs between Willingham, Quentin and Cruz (green). Again, the season of note for Willingham (purple) and Quentin (organge) is 2010, and the season of note for Cruz is 2011. Comparison Conclusion Nelson Cruz s statistical comparison to the other five outfielders provides to be very favorable for Cruz. He was more productive than each player, including those paid higher than the Texas Ranger offer and nelson Cruz s offer. The most favorable comparison involves Nelson Cruz and Willingham. Cruz was much more productive than Willingham in a very average year for Cruz. Yet Willingham is paid much
more than even the offer provided by Nelson Cruz. Cruz s batting average was comparable to each player, yet he hit more homeruns and drove in more runs than most of the players. If stats from the last three seasons are accounted for the gap grows with Cruz out producing each player even more. Cruz had a stellar 2010 season and completely outshined each player with the numbers he posted in that season. With regard to the players defensive ability, Cruz provided to be a more valuable all around player than Young, Willingham and Quentin by having a higher fielding percentage than each player. Upton s fielding percentage was only seven points higher than Cruz s making them virtually the same and Bourn is the only player to have a fielding percentage at least 10 points higher than Cruz. [All statistics found at http://www.mlb.com] Injury Nelson Cruz has been very lucky over the course of his career by not suffering any major injuries that have kept him out of a lineup for any long period of time. Rangers performance from 2006-2011 The Texas Rangers have been very successful during the years Nelson Cruz has been on the roster. During the 2010 and 2011 seasons the team advanced to the World Series by beating the New York Yankees in the 2010 ALCS and the Detroit Tigers in the 2011 ALCS, in large part to the performance of Victor Cruz. The team them went on to lose in each of the world series following. The overall record is as follows: 2006: 80-82, AL West third place 2007: 75-87, AL West last place 2008: 79-83, AL West second place 2009: 87-75, AL West second place 2010: 90-72, AL West Champions, American League Champions 2011: 96-66, AL West Champions, American League Champions
Before the 2010 season, the Texas Rangers organization had not enjoyed much success, with Nolan Ryan being the high point of the franchise. Further, the investment in Alex Rodriquez in 2001 never panned out. The 2009 season marked a change of thinking in the clubhouse and when Nolan Ryan led a group of investors to purchase the franchise the team completely turned around. The success is not all due to Nelson Cruz, as he had help. The Rangers added talents such as CJ Wilson and Josh Hamilton, as well as Cliff Lee for the end of the 2010 season. Cruz became part of a feared lineup in the American League. The team is showing no signs of slowing down in the near future. Further, with the AL West becoming more competitive with the recent signings of the Angels it is vital for the Rangers to resign talent and keep their stars happy and performing on the field. Conclusion Nelson Cruz has been a productive player for the Texas Rangers for several years now and had a productive year in 2011. His numbers make him more valuable than the offer provided by the Rangers, he has been more productive than comparative players and deserves to be paid in accordance to that. It is reasonable for Cruz to be awarded a contract of $5.3 million. Further, Cruz has proven to come through for the organization when it matters the most, by being awarded post-season honors such as the ALCS most valuable player. Cruz has simply out performed his contract and deserves to be paid an amount that is fair to his production.
EXHIBIT A: Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton Comparison Graphs [All graphs can be found at http://www.fangraphs.com] Batting Average (AVG) On-base Percentage (OBP)
EXHIBIT A continued Slugging Percentage (SLG) Isolated Power (ISO)
EXHIBIT B: Carlos Quentin and Josh Willingham Comparison Graphs [All graphs can be found at http://www.fangraphs.com] Batting Average (AVG) On-base Percentage (OBP)
EXHIBIT B continued Slugging Percentage (SLG) Isolated Power (ISO)