Applications of Climate Model in LAPAN Didi Satiadi National Institute of Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN) Workshop on MCCOE Radar Meteorology/Climatology in Indonesia Jakarta, 28 th February 2013
Introduction Atmospheric model is a numerical representation of governing equations describing the behaviour of the atmosphere. Atmospheric model can be used as a simulation tool (to study the behaviour of the atmosphere), or as a prediction tool (to find out atmospheric condition in the future). This presentation will describe applications of a climate model (esp. CSIRO GCM/LAM) at the Centre for Atmospheric Science and Technology LAPAN as a tool in atmospheric research. Research on the dynamics of ITCZ using the model and its relationship to monsoon and monsoon onset (esp. Indo-Australian) will be elaborated. The use the Equatorial Atmosphere Radar (EAR) in the development of Convective Scheme will also be discussed. 2
A computer program containing a collection of mathematical equations describing the dynamics and physical processes in the real atmosphere. Dynamical Model of the Atmosphere How is the condition of the atmosphere in the future? Operational Weather & Climate Prediction Research & Education How does the atmosphere work? Development Sectors Agriculture, Forestry, Fishery, Transportation, Trade, Industry, Energy, Health, Tourism, Environment, Defence & Security, Education 3
Equations for Dynamics and Physics of the Atmosphere Grid of space and Time Are solved within Written in through Computer Program Iteration in Space and Time 4
Physical Processes 5
Parameterization of Sub-Grid Processes Parameterization scheme is a procedure to calculate the collective effect of sub-grid processes on the model s prognostic variable and vice versa. Climate models with grid size larger than the sub-grid processes need to parameterize the effect of subgrid to the model s prognostic variable at each grid box. 6
GCM/DARLAM Modeling System General Circulation Model Nest Generator Limited Area Model Vegetation Generator GCM History Files 500 km GCM2LAM Nesting Files Topofile LAM vegetation rsmin soil roughness albedo Vegie Topgen Dynamic Downscaling 50 km Topography Generator 7
Data Input/Output Topography Albedo O 3 /CO 2 Vegetation Surface Roughness SST Ocean Current Ice Cover Soil Type Restart File GCM/ DARLAM Temperature Wind Mixing Ratio Pressure Precipitation Evaporation Heat Flux Radiation Cloud Runoff Latent Heating 8
Model Flowchart START Read namelist input Open input/output files Call initial conditions Perform physical adjustment Start of main time loop Perform dynamics step End of main time loop Print various output END Write output 9
PC-Based GCM/LAM CSIRO GCM/LAM on SGI Irix Compaq Visual Fortran 6.5 Microsoft Visual C++ 2003 NetCDF 3.5.0 Win32e GrADS InstallShields Express Armadillo LAPAN GCM/LAM on PC Windows/ Linux System Requirement: PC Intel (32/64 bit) Pentium IV 1.5 GHz RAM 512MB Hard Disk 1GB OS Windows XP/Vista/7 10
Features FITUR CSIRO-GCM/LAM LAPAN-GCM/LAM 1.0 LAPAN-GCM/LAM 1.0 PC-LINUX PC-WINDOWS Compiler F77, CC PGF77, PGCC Visual Fortran, Visual C++ Computer Super-Computer Silicon Personal Computer (PC) Personal Computer (PC) Graphics (SGI) 64-bit AMD-Athlon x86 64-bit Intel x86 32-bit Processor Processor Processor Architecture Stand Alone Stand Alone/Cluster(20) Stand Alone OS Irix 6.5 Linux (SuSe) Windows (XP/Vista) Installation Manual Manual Installshield Wizard Interface Console Console Graphical User Interface Format I/O NeCDF 2.4.1 NetCDF 3.5.0 NetCDF 3.5.0 Display GrADS GrADS GrADS for Windows SST Climatology Climatology Climatology or prediction from NOAA CO2 Determied by program Determined by program Determined by user Convection Static Trigger Static Trigger Static or Dynamic based on DCAPE>0 and DCINH>0 Output Standard Standard Additional convective variables (LCL, LFC, LNB, CAPE, CINH) 11
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Simulation Configuration PARAMETER GLOBAL INDONESIA JAWA Model CSIRO-9 GCM (PC) DARLAM (PC) DARLAM (PC) Domain Global Indonesia (60 E- 180 E, 30 S-25 N) Java (100 E-120 E, 10 S-5 S) Grid Size 56x64x9 130x60x9 100x30x9 Resolution 3.2 x5.6 100 km 20 km Time Step 30 minutes 900 seconds 300 seconds Forcing Initial Condition SST prediction NOAA Restart from previous month Nesting from Global Restart from previous month Nesting from Indonesia Restart from previous month Convection Scheme Arakawa Arakawa Arakawa Simulation Time Jan-Dec 2010 Jan-Dec 2010 Jan-Dec 2010 13
Indonesia res. 100 km Global res. 300 km x 500 km Java Island res. 20 km 14
Surface Temperature 2010 Horizontal Wind 2010 Cloud Cover 2010 Rainfall 2010 15
Monthly Global Rainfall 2010 TRMM (Top) vs GCM (Bottom)
Zonal and Meridional Mean Global Rainfall 2010 (January to September) Model (GCM) vs Observation (TRMM) GCM Double Peak TRMM Afrika Indonesia A. Latin ZONAL MERIDIONAL 17
Simulation Results using DARLAM for Indonesia Region January to December 2010 Surface Temperature Surface Pressure Rainfall Horizontal Wind 18
Simulation Results using DARLAM for Java Island Region January to December 2010 Surface Temperature Wind Rainfall Meridional Wind 19
Rainfall 2010 (January to September) Model vs Observation JAVA INDONESIA GLOBAL TRMM MODEL 20
Temperature & Mixing Ratio Profile (Kototabang 11/2005) Model (DARLAM) vs Observation (Radiosonde) OBSERVATION MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE MIXING RATIO PROFILE 21
Study of Convective Triggering Based on Observation at Kototabang Station
Effect of Convective Triggering Xie et. al. (2004) produced better simulation results using a modified convective triggering based on large scale contribution to the rate of change of CAPE. Ref: Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 109, D14102, 2004
Observation of Mean Diurnal Cycle EAR WWND+ 2001-2006 AVE EAR BLR WWND- 1998-2003 AVE BLR SODAR SDR WWND+ 2003-2004 AVE ORG ORG RAIN 2002-2006 AVE RDS-CAPE 04/2004 & 11/2005 AVE CAPE
Observation of Mean Diurnal Cycle CAPE LCL INSTABILITY CLOUD BASE INHIBITION CINH FREE CONVECTION LFC CAP STRENGTH CAP CLOUD TOP LNB TOTAL ENERGY CAPE+CINH DIFFERENCE+ LNB-LFC CLOUD DEPTH LNB-LCL DIFFERENCE- LFC-LCL
Modification of Convective Triggering START +DCAPE NO Large Scale Criterion YES Handshaking NO CINH=0 Local Scale Criterion YES ADJUSTMENT STOP
TRMM ORIGINAL CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING MODIFIED CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING
Study of ITCZ Dynamics Using General Circulation Model and Its Relationship to Monsoon
ITCZ, Monsoon & Monsoon Onset According to Chao (2000, 2001, 2004), monsoon is the circulation associated with ITCZ away from the equator. The migration of ITCZ during its annual cycle does not always occur gradually, but sometime jumps towards the poles. The ITCZ jump corresponds to the onset of monsoon.
Sumi s Experiment The results of Sumi s experiment using general circulation model with uniform SST and uniform radiative cooling: Single ITCZ along the equator. Double ITCZ stradling the equator. The results must be caused by the earth rotation (Corriolis). Two effects of the earth s rotation on convection: Inertial stability Increased surface fluxes
ITCZ Attractor: Corriolis Second Attractor (P) First effect of Coriolis (A) Coriolis against convergence/ divergence, therefore against convection Second effect of Coriolis (B) Coriolis increases surface wind, therefore increases convection First Attractor(EQ) Ref. Chao & Chen (2004)
ITCZ Attractor: SST Peak Combined Efect (R) Where R = A - B First Attractor Second Attractor ITCZ Jump ITCZ Jump SST Peak at Equator Ref. Chao & Chen (2004)
Bimodality & ITCZ Jump N EQ S 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 N EQ S
ITCZ Jump & the Hadley Cell Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Ref. Hu et. al. (2007)
West African Monsoon Jump Ref. Hagos & Cook, Dynamics of the West African Monsoon Jump, Journal of Climate, 2007
EQ
EQ
Bimodality of ITCZ based on Cloud Top Temperature (MTSAT 2006-2009) 2006 2007 2008 2009
ITCZ Jump based on Cloud Top Temperature (MTSAT 2006-2009) 2006 2007 Jump between rails Jump between rails Rail N Rail S 2008 2009
ITCZ Jump Observed by MTSAT vs Indo- Australia Monsoon Indices 2006-2009 2006 2007 2008 2009
ITCZ Jump Observed by MTSAT vs Rainfall in Indo-Australia Region (110 E-140 E,15 S-5 S) 2006 2007 2008 2009
Zonal-Monthly Mean Rainfall (GCM) 2001-2012 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Zonal-Monthly Mean Rainfall (TRMM) 1998-2010 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Latitudional Migration of ITCZ (GCM) 2001-2012 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Latitudional Migration of ITCZ (TRMM) 1998-2011 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Latitudional Migration of ITCZ (GCM vs TRMM) 2001-2010 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Migration of ITCZ-TRMM (180 W-180 E) vs Indo-Australia Monsoon Indices 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Migration of ITCZ-TRMM (110 E-140 E) vs Indo-Australia Monsoon Indices 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Summary A portable PC-based global/regional atmospheric model has been developed at LAPAN based on CSIRO GCM/LAM as a tool for research. The model could simulate basic atmospheric processes such as global circulation, monsoon, rainfall etc. Research using EAR has been carried out to improve the performance of the model s convective parameterization (triggering) scheme. Research on the behaviour of ITCZ has been carried out using the model to simulate ITCZ jump as an alternative to predict the onset of monsoon.
Thank You satiadi@bdg.lapan.go.id