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WindProspector Unparalleled Wind Resource Assessment Industry Challenge Wind resource assessment meteorologists have traditionally relied on met towers and simple models to estimate the annual wind energy production of a prospective region. They rely on short records from a handful of towers to extrapolate in the horizontal for the installation of tens and even hundreds of wind generators. The prospecting towers reach hub-height at best, and are typically lower than the wind turbine hubs. The estimates of winds across the blade swept area are made using empirical rules of thumb. Together, these factors have led to wind farms under-performing against original energy yield forecasts by an average of 7 to 9 percent. In response to these deficits, wind farm developers now have added sodars, vertically pointing lidars, and additional met towers to optimize wind turbine placement. KNOW THE WIND While the gap between the actual and the predicted energy production has narrowed, many wind energy experts believe there has been little progress made toward achieving accurate wind resource assessments. The industry has merely become more conservative. Atmospheric flow is complex and fickle by nature, and varies dramatically in response to even small terrain and land-use features across short distances. To capture these variations, a fundamentally different approach is needed. Integrating data from WindTracer Doppler lidar, WindProspector delivers superior wind resource assessments for wind farm developers. With a radial range of more than 15 km, a single WindTracer system paints a high resolution picture of the wind field across an area of 700 to 1000 km2 and through a vertical depth of 3 km or more. The next advancement in wind resource assessment will harness the power of WindTracer to anchor development decisions in observational data as opposed to educated guesswork. 1 2
WINDPROSPECTOR SOLUTION Offered as a turnkey solution, WindProspector provides wind resource assessment information, including terrain following 3D wind maps, and vertical wind shear information, time series measurements and wind frequency distributions from hundreds of virtual met towers. WindProspector is used to optimize wind turbine placement and selection, predict future farm performance, and lower assessment uncertainties. These in turn can improve financing terms and ROI. WindTracer Terrain-Following Wind Speed Map: Month-Long Average, Wind Speed at Nominal Hub Height (80m) 3D Wind maps The uncertainty in the potential production of a wind farm is largely driven by the ability to resolve wind spatial variability, both horizontally and vertically, and the long-term representativeness of site climatology associated with the assessment measurement period. While average wind data at a given tower is usually somewhat correlated with averages at nearby potential generator locations, small differences can easily sway the viability of a wind project. WindTracer lidar provides observations amounting to tens of thousands of tall met towers, measuring the wind at a granularity of about 100 m in the horizontal. This level of detail, utilizing traditional met towers, sodars, or vertical lidars, is neither operationally nor economically practical. Conventional models working at this resolution typically produce questionable results. Corbis 3 4
WindProspector Data Products Optimized Farm Design and Project Financing Correlation with Trusted Sources To validate measurement accuracy, WindProspector determines the correlation between measurements made with WindTracer and other instruments, such as met towers, sodars, and vertical lidars. Comparisons performed in the field show strong correlation between single point data sources and the equivalent sub-sample from WindTracer. Wind & Power Statistics WindProspector data provides a precise estimate of aggregate wind speed and expected annual energy production across a region. WindProspector generates frequency histograms at any number of prospective turbine locations to determine optimal turbine placement and total lifetime energy output. Vertical Wind Shear WindProspector provides a complete picture of the vertical wind profile. Unlike the traditional met tower approach, where wind is measured at just two or three levels and then extrapolated using a shear coefficient, WindTracer lidar measures the wind across the entire blade swept area. In fact, vertical profiles are available well beyond the height accessible to sodars and vertically pointing lidars. Vertical profiles are also available at regular horizontal spacing throughout the entire prospective site. This removes the guesswork from micrositing. Highly accurate statistics can be produced for any point in the wind park and can be compared with other less versatile observations, or can be used to answer specific site suitability questions. WindProsepctor data across the blade swept area is also very useful for assessing the stresses the wind regime will place on wind project assets built at the site. Return On Investment A wind farm project can be financed through any number of combinations of equity and debt. In the case of debt, a project is secured based on the Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR); or 1.2-1.5 times Gross Revenues less Operating Expenses or EBITDA. Revenues are typically based on an exceedence ratio of P50/P90, which is highly dependent on the inherent uncertainty of a project. As the complexity of the terrain increases, so does the level of uncertainty and the spread of the production output distribution. This drives up the cost of capital and reduces the amount of debt financing available to the project, requiring a larger sum of up-front cash from equity holders. Furthermore, a higher risk profile for equity holders can significantly impact forecasted Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) from the onset. A higher fidelity and more accurate characterization of the wind resource can reduce the forecasted riskiness of the project, increase lifetime farm revenues and associated tax credit benefits, and reduce capital costs through appropriate selection of wind turbines for a resource. 5 6
Additional Benefits WindProspector provides the spatial resolution necessary to validate Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and Numerical Weather Prediction models (NWP) that are often used to refine resource assessment estimates. Such validation allows these models to be better tuned, and opens up the possibility of initializing the models using the WindTracer data, which could bring a new level of fidelity to estimates of spatial and temporal variability, further reducing uncertainty and risk. The high resolution of the WindTracer data opens the door to other resource assessment and operational metrics that currently lack sufficient attention. For example, the reserves required by regional balancing authorities can be calculated through hourly forecasts to depict the future variability of the farm output. In addition, WindTracer operates at a very high spatial and temporal resolution, sufficient enough to resolve wind farm wakes during farm construction and installation. 17 8 Corbis
WindTracer LONGEST RANGE COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE LIDAR IN THE WORLD With 100 years of experience driving innovation and solving our customer s most complex technological challenges, Lockheed Martin now looks to apply its vast portfolio of proven capabilities to drive energy sustainability and security. Utilizing WindTracer, the world s most powerful long-range Doppler lidar system, Lockheed Martin is committed to aiding wind power developers and investors to capitalize on wind energy resources. WindTracer Specifications* Measurement Typical Range Maximum Range Radial Wind Velocity Range Minimum Range Resolution Average Wind Speed Accuracy Scanner Azimuth Range Elevation Range Resolution Pointing Accuracy Optical Clear Aperture Transceiver Laser Wavelength Pulse Energy Pulse Duration Pulse Repetition Frequency Beam Diameter Shelter Environment Weight Dimensions Power Specifications *Specifications subject to change 400 m to 18 km 33 km ±38 m/s 100 m 0.2 m/s 0 to 360 degrees -5 to 185 degrees 0.001 degrees ±0.1 degrees 12 cm 1617 nm 2.5 mj ± 0.5 mj 300 nsec ± 150 sec 750 Hz 9.6 cm (e -1 intensity width) All weather 2600 kg 197x244x329(H) cm 200-240 VAC single phase, 50 or 60 Hz (specified at time of purchase), 50A service required 59 10