Managed Lanes: The Fitch Approach Saavan Gatfield, Senior Director
HOT Lanes Getting Hotter Priced Managed Lanes Across the United States As of 4/27/14 Sources: HNTB Corporation; GAO analysis of USDOT, state departments of transportation; and local authorities information 1
Policies Matter Annual Toll Revenue and Operating Cost Operating Managed Lanes $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 I-35W Minneapolis, MN I-394 Minneapolis, MN Source: FHWA Managed Lanes Handbook Annual Revenues (Millions) I-25 Denver, CO I-15 San Diego, CA Annual Operating Costs (Millions) Hov 2+ I-10 Houston, TX Hov 3+ I-95 Miami, FL SR-91 Orange County, CA 2
Low Average Time Savings Observed I-95 Northbound Travel Time and Tolls (2012) Minutes Saved Minute Saved Typical Price 4 $4 3 $3 2 $2 1 $1 0 12:00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM $0 Source: FDOT 3
ML Volume Volatile, Even in Congested Corridor 91 Express Lanes Average Daily Traffic Percentage Change Global ADT General Purpose ADT SR 91 ADT 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: OCTA 4
Evolution of ML Traffic 95 Express Lanes Northbound Annual ML Traffic by Hour Average Vehicles Per Lane Per Hour (VPLPH) 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H 2013 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 12:00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM Source: FDOT 5
Change in Toll Rates 95 Express Northbound Annual Typical Toll Rate by Hour Typical Toll Rate $3.50 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H 2013 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 12:00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM Source: FDOT 6
Volume to Capacity and Toll Price Affect Capture Rate 95 Express Lanes (FL) Northbound 2012 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Volume/ GP Capacity Capture Rate Typical Toll/ Mile $0.40 $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 0% 12:00:00 AM 6:00:00 AM 12:00:00 PM 6:00:00 PM $0.00 Source: FDOT 7
Understanding the Project * Strength of service area * Competing facilities? * Connected locations * Radial v circumferential? * One/two directional traffic? * Regional travel patterns * Ingress / egress * Lane barriers What? Why? Where? When? 8
Understanding the Project Who? What For? How Often? Where does it fit in the system? Who uses it? Why? When is it busy? 9
Understanding the Project National Declining Per-Capita Driving Trend Vehicle-Miles Traveled, U.S. (millions) 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 Population Growth Critical Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) VMT per capita 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012* 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 * 2012 data based on U.S. Department of Transportation s (U.S. DOT) Traffic Volume Trends report. Previous years based on U.S. DOT Highway Statistics series of reports Source: US Department of Transportation 0 VMT Per Capita 10
Understanding the Project Forecast Growth Focused in Few States States with Highest Forecast Population Growth Pop Increase 2000 2030 (mm) 2030 Pop (mm) Annual Pop Growth Rate 2000 2030 1 Florida 12.7 28.7 2.0% 3 2 California 12.6 46.4 1.1% 1 3 Texas 12.5 33.3 1.6% 2 4 Arizona 5.6 10.7 2.5% 10 5 North Carolina 4.2 12.2 1.4% 7 6 Georgia 3.8 12.0 1.3% 8 7 Virginia 2.7 9.8 1.1% 12 8 Washington 2.7 8.6 1.3% 14 9 Nevada 2.3 4.3 2.6% 28 10 Maryland 1.7 7.0 0.9% 16 United States 82.2 363.6 0.9% 2030 Rank Source: United States Census Bureau, Fitch 11
Understanding the Project Top 10 MSAs by Employment Growth Forecast 2012 18 Growth Rank MSA Employment (000s) 2013 2019 CAGR % 1 Orlando, FL 1,065 1,255 2.77% 2 Houston, TX 2,788 3,278 2.74% 3 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 1,226 1,431 2.60% 4 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 3,090 3,602 2.58% 5 Phoenix, AZ 1,813 2,112 2.58% 6 Denver, CO 1,294 1,499 2.48% 7 Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL 2,349 2,666 2.13% 8 Portland, OR-WA 1,037 1,174 2.09% 9 Atlanta, GA 2,405 2,722 2.09% 10 Tampa- St. Petersburg, FL 1,177 1,331 2.07% Source: Global Insights Note: Data has been sorted to exclude MSAs with total employment less than 1 million 2012 12
Benchmarking & Stress Testing Source: NASA Is Traffic Forecasting Rocket Science? 13
Benchmarking & Stress Testing All Models Are Different! Source: NASA Source: NASA 14
Benchmarking & Stress Testing Indicative Sensitivities Peak Toll: Opening Year (Average per Mile, 2014$) $0.40 $0.70 Strong $0.30 $0.50 Moderate $0.20 $0.40 Weak Service Area 15
Benchmarking & Stress Testing Indicative Sensitivities Revenue CAGR 5.0 7.0% Strong 4.0 6.0% Moderate 3.0 5.0% Weak Service Area 16
People in pursuit of answers 17
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