Understanding the Role of Water Vapor Transport Anomalies in Asian and African Monsoon Droughts Using New Satellite Observations Chris Funk, USGS EROS, UCSB CHG NASA PMM meeting, Salt Lake City, Oct. 27 2009
UCSB/USGS/NASA Collaboration & the USAID Famine Early Warning System Network An elderly woman is given water in the Turkana region of Kenya. Many of the elderly are too weak and sick to feed themselves or drink. NYT Oct 2009. The aid community in Kenya has been predicting a disaster for months, saying this could be the worst drought in more than a decade.
Integrated Drought Monitoring? History QPE Seasonal Prediction Decadal Prediction Moisture Transports
Monitoring and assessing El Niño s possible food security impacts House Foreign Affairs Committee October 2, 2009 Gary Eilerts, USAID FEWS NET 4
So, how should we plan for El Niño in the Horn of Africa? Plan for a bigger problem. Rains have already been poor in most of 2009 Poor rains, March May 2009 Poor rains, June July 2009 http://zippy.geog.ucsb.edu:8080/ewx/index.html Source: USGS EWX
So, how should we plan for El Niño in the Horn of Africa? Understanding that it s not only El Niño; climate change is also present Last 4 rainy seasons are worst since 1979. Main season rainfall decreasing, while second season is increasing Almost 20% drop in main season rainfall since 1980 C. Funk/USGS Real-time Decision Support Systems: The Famine Early Warning System Network Chapter 17 for: Satellite Rainfall Applications for Surface Hydrology, by Springer-Verlag
So, how should we plan for El Niño in the Horn of Africa? Looking at all info; in any year, a warmer Indian Ocean may impede rains C. Funk/USGS
ocean warming also contributes to drier main seasons in Southern Africa A warming Indian Ocean threatens Eastern and Southern Africa, Proceeding of the Nat. Academy of Science, 2008 C. Funk/USGS
So, how should we plan for El Niño in the Horn of Africa? Even more concern as anomalous rainfall IS ALREADY occuring USGS and NASA CauKon: Might El Niño instead bring a poor season to the Horn?
Water Vapor Transports Anomalies Account for a large fraction of the anomalous energy transports in the tropics Conv(Moist Static Energy) Changes in moist entropy in PBL Transport Water Persist Predictability Comprehension Can help us understand decadal variability
Indian Ocean Monsoonal Circulation Summer Winter Eq High Pressure Low Pressure
Indian Ocean Monsoonal Walker Circulation Walker Cell 90E 120E High Pressure No Rain Low Pressure Heavy Rain
Seasonal Rainfall and Moisture Transports: JFM Data: The Passive Microwave Water Cycle Product, Hillburn, Remote Sensing Systems high pressure low pressure
Seasonal Rainfall and Moisture Transports: AMJ Data: The Passive Microwave Water Cycle Product, Hillburn, REMSS low pressure high pressure trough trough
Seasonal Rainfall and Moisture Transports: JAS Data: The Passive Microwave Water Cycle Product, Hillburn, REMSS low pressure high pressure
Seasonal Rainfall and Moisture Transports: OND Data: The Passive Microwave Water Cycle Product, Hillburn, REMSS low pressure high pressure
Seasonal Differences: JFM and AMJ low pressure high pressure
Correlation with Kenya AMJ Rainfall
EOF1 of AMJ Precipitation and Transports
Time series of Kenyan October-November forecasts and observations 4 Kenyan Oct November rainfall Kme series 3 Oct Nov Rainfall Index [sigma] 2 1 0 1 2 Cross validated Forecasts Eth Oct Nov Rainfall Index Fcast 1 Standard Error Fcast +1 Standard Error 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 normal forecast 3
Correlation with JAS Indian Rainfall 2 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 -1.5-2 -2.5-3 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Northward Transports Indian Rainfall
Warming Indian/Pacific Oceans linked to drought? Science, 2008 (CMIP3 TS) T B(obs) 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 Indian Ocean + Western Pacific SST Anomalies 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Thanks! Moisture transport anomalies appear linked to the seasonal Indian Ocean monsoon cycle For Kenya AMJ Low at equator drives NH easterlies, increases rainfall Opposite seasonality For India JAS High at equator drives NH westerlies, increases rainfall Similar to seasonality Results may lead to better predicatibility Integrated DSS Historic Obs + RT QPE + forecasts + decadal variability analysis