weekly football tip sheet ISSUE 1 College Football Week 1
Football Weekly INDEX Rotation Schedule...2 College Football VI Picks...3 College Football Strength Ratings...4 College Football Top Weekly Trends...6 Top 9 College Football Stability Mismatches for Week 1...7 College Football Matchups...10 New CFB Head Coaches - What it Means For Bettors...23 Football Line Moves...24 WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY Welcome to another football season and another run of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly. This is now our sixth year of producing what we feel is the finest weekly handicapping tipsheet on the market. Thank you for those returning for another season. You ll see just a few changes to the VIFW for 2017, but the one big change you will notice is that we have added another human expert to our list of handicappers. VI Matt joins Jim, Jason, and Doug, and replaces the VI Forecaster, after what turned out to be a rough season for that particular rating. We as a staff also felt that the Effective Strength Indicator and the Forecaster were often redundant. We feel this change will help provide a more accurate CONSENSUS pick for you. If you were with us last year, you might recall that VI Jason and Jim were both stellar for the season, with Jason winning the NFL Best Bets competition at 62% for the year, and Jim capturing honors in the college ranks at 58%. VI Jim, better known as Jim Mack, offers his own daily paid selections on our web property, VegasInsider.com. Be sure to check him out there this season. VI Doug, not to be dismissed, was also strong in the NFL, hitting at 59% for the year on his top plays. With Matt now joining the fray, the choices of experts to follow are even greater. For those of you that don t know our policy on this, other than Jim Mack, we only provide our cappers first names so as to avoid any conflict or promotion with their outside businesses. The picks they provide for the VIFW are in fact exclusive in their nature. In this first issue for 2017, we will be focusing entirely on the kickoff of the first full week of the college football season. We hope you enjoy the coverage, and welcome your feedback at any time. This season s coverage will run for 22 issues, covering both college football and the NFL, and if you like what you see, and haven t done so already, we encourage you to sign up for the season-long subscription. That way, you ll not only get all of the great coverage we promise to deliver, you ll save a bunch of money in the process, over 45% off the cover price. At Vegas Insider, we are The Global Leader in Sports Gaming Information, and we try to prove that in our publication. Of course, like most tipsheets, ours starts with expert tips. We ll also cover EVERY college and pro game throughout the campaign in some capacity, detailing key matchup stats, trends, with written previews as well. These will be accompanied by detailed looks at the head-to-head histories between teams, plus strategic handicapping articles by some of the industry s leading writers. The VIFW is also the ONLY place you ll be able to take advantage of THREE key sets of strength ratings we ve developed and maintained in house for several years. These are the exact same ratings that some of the best oddsmakers in the sports betting world use to help create their numbers! Best of luck on the opening week of college football games! Vegas Insider Staff 1 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 ROTATION SCHEDULE Football Weekly COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 1 COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued COLLEGE FOOTBALL continued THURSDAY, AUGUST 31, 2017 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 133 OHIO ST -21-20 163 AKRON 63.5 63.5 * Arlington, TX P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ABC 201 MICHIGAN -5-4 134 INDIANA 53 52 164 PENN ST -33-32 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ABC 135 BUFFALO 53 52 * Indianapolis, IN 202 FLORIDA 47.5 45 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM BTN 165 LOUISVILLE -27-26 203 VANDERBILT -5.5-5.5 136 MINNESOTA -27-26 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM FOX P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM CBSN 137 LA MONROE 67 67 166 PURDUE 68 68 204 MIDDLE TENN ST 61 58 P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM CBSN 167 ARKANSAS ST 48 47 * Atlanta, GA 138 MEMPHIS -27-27 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM BTN 205 FLORIDA ST 53 49 139 NEW MEXICO ST 67 70.5 168 NEBRASKA -17-17 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ABC P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM PAC12 171 NEVADA 52.5 54 206 ALABAMA -7.5-6.5 140 ARIZONA ST -25-24 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM BTN 207 TROY 57 57 169 FLA INTERNATIONA 56 56.5 172 NORTHWESTERN -23-24 P: 12:45PM C: 2:45PM E: 3:45PM ESPNU P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM CBSN 173 BALL ST 59.5 58 208 BOISE ST -13-11 170 UCF -17-17 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM BTN 199 TULSA 71 72 174 ILLINOIS -8.5-7.5 SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 3, 2017 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM FS1 175 UTEP 69.5 62 * Landover, MD 200 OKLAHOMA ST -17-17 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM FOX 209 WEST VIRGINIA 54.5 55.5 176 OKLAHOMA -46-45 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM ABC FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 2017 177 CALIFORNIA 66 55.5 210 VIRGINIA TECH -4.5-5.5 141 CHARLOTTE 58 56.5 P: 9:20AM C: 11:20AM E: 12:20PM ACCN 211 TEXAS A&M 59 55.5 P: 3:30PM C: 5:30PM E: 6:30PM 178 NORTH CAROLINA -13-11 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM FOX 142 E MICHIGAN -13-14 179 S ALABAMA 59 58.5 212 UCLA -3-4 143 WASHINGTON -31-30 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM ESPNU P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM FS1 180 OLE MISS -27-24 MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 4, 2017 144 RUTGERS 58.5 52 181 W MICHIGAN 55.5 58.5 213 TENNESSEE -3-4 145 NAVY -15-12 P: 2:15PM C: 4:15PM E: 5:15PM PAC12 P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPNU 182 USC -24-28 214 GEORGIA TECH 59.5 57 146 FLA ATLANTIC 65 70 * Houston, TX 147 UTAH ST 49 48.5 183 BYU 44.5 47.5 P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN P: 6:30PM C: 8:30PM E: 9:30PM ESPN 148 WISCONSIN -29-29 184 LSU -13-12 149 BOSTON COLLEGE -1.5-2.5 185 MARYLAND 57 56 P: 6:30PM C: 8:30PM E: 9:30PM CBSN P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM FS1 150 N ILLINOIS 51 46 186 TEXAS -17-17 * Denver, CO 187 TEMPLE 55.5 52.5 151 COLORADO ST 66.5 63 P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM NBC P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM PAC12 188 NOTRE DAME -15-16 152 COLORADO -7-6 189 GA SOUTHERN 51.5 53 P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM SECN SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 190 AUBURN -35-35 153 BOWLING GREEN 56.5 56.5 191 APPALACHIAN ST 47 45.5 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPNU P: 3:15PM C: 5:15PM E: 6:15PM ESPN 154 MICHIGAN ST -20-18 192 GEORGIA -14-14 155 WYOMING 53.5 54 193 KENTUCKY -10-11 P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM BTN P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM CBSN 156 IOWA -14-12 194 SOUTHERN MISS 60 61 157 MIAMI OHIO 51.5 49.5 195 HOUSTON -15-13 P: 3:30PM C: 5:30PM E: 6:30PM P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 158 MARSHALL -1 PK 196 TX-SAN ANTONIO 54.5 51.5 159 KENT ST 51.5 50.5 * Charlotte, NC P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN 197 SOUTH CAROLINA 51 48.5 160 CLEMSON -38-40 P: 12:00PM C: 2:00PM E: 3:00PM ESPN 161 MASSACHUSETTS 59.5 59.5 198 NC STATE -4.5-6 P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM 162 COASTAL CAROLINA 0 0 VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY SEASON PASS - $259 FULL SEASON The Tip Sheet Season Pass runs through Febraury 2018, so you ll be covered for the entire Regular Season and Playoffs. 2 $259 FULL SEASON VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM/WEEKLY-INSIDER THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
Football Weekly COLLEGE FOOTBALL VI PICKS VI Jim 89-78 (53%) 29-21 (58%)* VI Jason 91-76 (54%) 29-22 (57%)* VI Doug 76-91 (46%) 23-29 (44%)* VI Matt New in 2017 Power Rating 81-86 (49%) Thursday, August 31, 2017 - (133) OHIO ST at (134) INDIANA (+20) Effective Strength 70-97 (42%) Bettors Ratings 89-78 (53%) Consensus 78-89 (47%) * indicates Best Bet (BB) All Records 2016 Ohio St* Ohio St* Ohio St Indiana Indiana Indiana Ohio St Ohio St Thursday, August 31, 2017 - (199) TULSA at (200) OKLAHOMA ST (-17) Oklahoma St Tulsa Oklahoma St* Tulsa Oklahoma St Tulsa Oklahoma St Oklahoma St Friday, September 1, 2017 - (151) COLORADO ST vs. (152) COLORADO (-6) Colorado St Colorado Colorado Colorado Colorado St Colorado St Colorado St Colorado St Saturday, September 2, 2017 - (181) W MICHIGAN at (182) USC (-27.5) USC* USC USC W Michigan W Michigan W Michigan W Michigan W Michigan Saturday, September 2, 2017 - (183) BYU vs. (184) LSU (-12) LSU BYU BYU LSU LSU LSU LSU LSU Saturday, September 2, 2017 - (187) TEMPLE at (188) NOTRE DAME (-16) Notre Dame Notre Dame Temple Temple Notre Dame Notre Dame Notre Dame Notre Dame Saturday, September 2, 2017 - (197) SOUTH CAROLINA vs. (198) NC STATE (-6) NC State* South Carolina South Carolina NC State South Carolina South Carolina South Carolina South Carolina Saturday, September 2, 2017 - (205) FLORIDA ST vs. (206) ALABAMA (-6.5) Florida St Alabama* Florida St* Alabama* Florida St Alabama Florida St Florida St Sunday, September 3, 2017 - (209) WEST VIRGINIA vs. (210) VIRGINIA TECH (-5.5) West Virginia West Virginia West Virginia West Virginia* West Virginia West Sunday, September 3, 2017 - (211) TEXAS A&M at (212) UCLA (-4) UCLA UCLA* UCLA* Texas A&M* Texas A&M Virginia Texas A&M West Virginia Texas A&M West Virginia Texas Jim says On opening night of the college football season, one of my picks for the college football playoff will take on its first challenge as Ohio State travels to Indiana as a 20-point favorite. The Buckeyes have had their problems with the Hoosiers, losing their L6 against the spread in the series. However, Indiana has undergone a ton of changes for 2017, and all six of those competitive games between IU and Ohio State came under Kevin Wilson, who impressed Urban Meyer enough to that Meyer hired him as his new offensive coordinator. He ll be leading J.T. Barrett & an otherwise very inexperienced offense in 2017. I see the Buckeyes getting off to a strong start, beating the 20-point number. Jason says After going 5-0 on the road in Kevin Sumlin s first season at Texas A&M, of course led by Johnny Football, the Aggies have gone just 8-8 on the road since. The 2017 season opens with a very difficult road task, taking on the Bruins in Los Angeles. The challenge is intensified by the fact that Sumlin is on the hot seat supposedly and goes with a first time starter at QB in redshirt freshman Nick Starkel. UCLA meanwhile, has Josh Rosen back as a junior quarterback. He had a big game last year in the 31-24 loss to the Aggies in College Station. His offense, and his team in general, is the more experienced of these two for 2017. In this rematch in L.A., I see a similar result going the opposite way. Bruins win by 7. Doug says While everyone acknowledges Alabama is the best team in the country to start the season, they do have a couple areas of vulnerability. As great as the Crimson Tide are, a quality quarterback who can throw down the field or move the pocket can have success versus Bama as long as the offensive does the job. Florida State has those components to test the Tide as quarterback Deandre Francois is a fearless leader who can get knocked around and still keep playing. While Alabama is the benchmark of college football, it is not like the Seminoles are new to the grand stage and they will not be intimidated. Any power ranking you design or look at say the same thing, Alabama is a three-point or less favorite over Florida State and I will gladly take the seven points. A&M Matt says Former Big East opponents Virginia Tech and West Virginia clash in primetime to kick off their 2017 college football slates. Both squads enter the season with fresh faces on both sides of the ball (VT 12 RS, WV 8 RS), with the most intriguing position change coming at the QB spot for both teams: true freshman Josh Jackson (VT) and transfer (FLA) junior Will Grier (WV). Grier s experience, along side senior RB Justin Crawford, in what should be an exciting Dan Holgorsen offense, will make just enough difference here. The Mountaineers might not get the W, but +5.5 will cash your ticket in what will be a highly contested game. VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 3
AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 COLLEGE FOOTBALL Football Weekly Three different types of time-tested strength ratings have been created for use in the publication. In the chart below, you ll find the ratings, along with potential edges shown STRENGTH RATINGS for the upcoming games. The Power Ratings columns are in-house ratings kept and maintained manually for every game throughout the season. The Effective Strength (Effective Strg) Ratings quantify a team s performance against varied schedule strengths. Finally, the Bettors Ratings (Bettors Rtng) are built using a unique formula of a team s closing lines in relation to its past opponents and game performances, giving a good indication of how bettors feel about a team. Each rating is built exclusive from the others, and thus has its own merits. Track the results of the ratings weekly and see which one works best for you. Edges are given when a projection varies 4.5 points or more from an actual line or total. BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 133 OHIO ST -20 66 34.6 35.4 134 INDIANA 52 44 18.8 18.8 15.4 135 BUFFALO 52 25 12.9 13.0 136 MINNESOTA -26 45-24.0 41.2 37.4 137 LA MONROE 67 24 16.0 22.5 138 MEMPHIS -27 46-24.8 47.6 MEM 47.7 139 NEW MEXICO ST 70.5 25 21.8 UNDER 20.0 UNDER 140 ARIZONA ST -23.5 46-25.5 43.6 45.9 169 FLA INTERNATIONAL 56.5 27 21.1 20.0 170 UCF -16.5 40-15.8 35.0 35.9 199 TULSA 72 41 26.7 26.7 200 OKLAHOMA ST -17 55-17.5 41.5 44.3 141 CHARLOTTE 56.5 22 22.6 22.1 142 E MICHIGAN -14 31-11.8 34.3 33.8 143 WASHINGTON -30 61 41.6 40.7 144 RUTGERS 52 31 26.8 13.3 12.4 145 NAVY -11.5 42 37.5 UNDER 36.0 UNDER 146 FLA ATLANTIC 70 29 10.5 23.4 24.6 147 UTAH ST 48.5 32 11.0 8.3 148 WISCONSIN -28.5 58-29.8 38.8 38.7 149 BOSTON COLLEGE -2.5 41 25.3 28.7 OVER 150 N ILLINOIS 46 33 3.8 24.9 24.2 151 COLORADO ST 63 43 29.7 32.8 OVER 152 COLORADO -6 48-4.0 33.4 36.6 153 BOWLING GREEN 56.5 29 20.7 18.5 154 MICHIGAN ST -18 45-18.8 35.9 37.5 155 WYOMING 54 37 23.0 17.4 UNDER 156 IOWA -12 47-14.0 31.4 31.4 157 MIAMI OHIO 49.5 35 24.4 23.6 158 MARSHALL 0 32-1.8 25.2 24.9 159 KENT ST 50.5 26 11.0 KST 5.6 160 CLEMSON -39.5 61-38.5 43.3 45.0 161 MASSACHUSETTS 59.5 27 32.0 MAS 29.7 162 COASTAL CAROLINA 0 25-2.8 27.0 32.1 4 163 AKRON 63.5 30 17.2 15.0 164 PENN ST -32 60-33.8 46.4 49.5 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
Football Weekly BRD Power Ratings Effective Strg Bettors Rtng # s Teams Actual Rtg Line Edge? Proj Edge? Proj Edge? 165 LOUISVILLE -25.5 57 43.0 45.7 166 PURDUE 68 34 23.0 23.0 PUR 21.5 167 ARKANSAS ST 47 36 16.5 15.9 168 NEBRASKA -17 48-15.3 33.1 31.2 171 NEVADA 54 30 15.1 16.0 172 NORTHWESTERN -24 49-22.0 38.5 38.3 173 BALL ST 58 29 25.1 28.2 OVER 174 ILLINOIS -7.5 35-8.5 34.6 36.5 175 UTEP 62 22 8.8 10.2 OVER 176 OKLAHOMA -44.5 63-45.3 52.6 56.6 177 CALIFORNIA 55.5 42 23.5 27.8 OVER 178 NORTH CAROLINA -10.5 48-10.0 35.6 37.6 179 S ALABAMA 58.5 27 16.0 17.7 180 OLE MISS -24 49-25.5 42.8 43.6 181 W MICHIGAN 58.5 39 15.4 14.7 182 USC -27.5 61-25.8 39.4 40.9 183 BYU 47.5 46 16.1 15.5 184 LSU -12 60-13.0 29.8 28.6 185 MARYLAND 56 41 19.3 20.3 186 TEXAS -17 53-15.3 36.2 35.6 187 TEMPLE 52.5 40 18.2 20.6 OVER 188 NOTRE DAME -16 54-17.5 34.8 38.2 189 GA SOUTHERN 53 28 8.0 9.7 190 AUBURN -35 60-35.3 46.7 45.8 191 APPALACHIAN ST 45.5 41 15.4 16.1 192 GEORGIA -13.5 54-15.8 29.4 32.0 193 KENTUCKY -10.5 48 34.8 37.0 194 SOUTHERN MISS 61 33 12.0 23.5 24.1 195 HOUSTON -12.5 47 30.6 31.1 196 TX-SAN ANTONIO 51.5 33 11.5 20.8 18.7 197 SOUTH CAROLINA 48.5 46 22.0 26.4 OVER 198 NC STATE -6 52-5.5 27.5 31.7 201 MICHIGAN -4 58 21.4 24.9 202 FLORIDA 45 57 3.5 21.6 21.0 203 VANDERBILT -5.5 44 31.6 35.7 OVER 204 MIDDLE TENN ST 58 34 7.5 26.0 27.4 205 FLORIDA ST 49 63 17.9 23.2 206 ALABAMA -6.5 67-4.8 28.7 27.8 207 TROY 57 38 22.7 23.6 208 BOISE ST -11 45-11.0 35.8 34.5 209 WEST VIRGINIA 55.5 47 23.4 25.5 210 VIRGINIA TECH -5.5 52-4.8 28.6 30.1 211 TEXAS A&M 55.5 52 26.7 30.8 OVER 212 UCLA -4 52-2.0 29.9 32.4 213 TENNESSEE -4 53 30.7 32.4 214 GEORGIA TECH 57 48 3.5 28.3 28.3 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 5
AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP WEEKLY TRENDS TEAMS TO PLAY ON 18.4% ROI (169) FLA INTERNATIONAL AT (170) UCF UCF is 31-19 ATS(L50G) - as favorite of more than 7 points ( $1010 Profit with a 18.4% ROI ) TEAMS TO PLAY AGAINST 22.2% ROI (189) GEORGIA SOUTHERN AT (190) AUBURN AUBURN is 18-32 ATS(L50G) - as double digit favorite ( $1220 Profit with a 22.2% ROI ) 17.6% ROI (199) TULSA AT (200) OKLAHOMA ST OKLAHOMA ST is 50-31-1 ATS(L82G) - as favorite of more than 7 points ( $1590 Profit with a 17.6% ROI ) 34.7% ROI (187) TEMPLE AT (188) NOTRE DAME NOTRE DAME is 12-30-2 ATS(L44G) at HOME - as double digit favorite ( $1680 Profit with a 34.7% ROI ) 20.4% ROI (145) NAVY AT (146) FLA ATLANTIC NAVY is 31-18-1 ATS(L50G) - All Games ( $1120 Profit with a 20.4% ROI ) 36.6% ROI (211) TEXAS A&M AT (212) UCLA TEXAS A&M is 11-29-2 ATS(L42G) - AS underdog of 7 or less points ( $1690 Profit with a 36.6% ROI ) GAMES TO PLAY OVER 30.0% ROI (205) FLORIDA ST VS (206) ALABAMA ALABAMA is 33-15-2 OVER(L50G) - As favorite ( $1650 Profit with a 30.0% ROI ) GAMES TO PLAY UNDER 35.2% ROI (171) NEVADA AT (172) NORTHWESTERN NORTHWESTERN is 17-7 UNDER(L5Y) - AT RYAN FIELD ( $930 Profit with a 35.2% ROI ) 27.3% ROI (201) MICHIGAN VS (202) FLORIDA MICHIGAN is 28-14 OVER(L42G) - VS AP top 25 ( $1260 Profit with a 27.3% ROI ) 22.4% ROI (165) LOUISVILLE VS (166) PURDUE PURDUE is 31-17-2 UNDER(L50G) - VS AP top 25 ( $1230 Profit with a 22.4% ROI ) 28.9% ROI (213) TENNESSEE VS (214) GEORGIA TECH TENNESSEE is 30-14-2 OVER(L50G) - In September ( $1460 Profit with a 28.9% ROI ) 35.6% ROI (181) W MICHIGAN AT (182) USC USC is 35-14-1 UNDER(L50G) at HOME - as favorite of more than 7 points ( $1960 Profit with a 35.6% ROI ) 6 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
Football Weekly TOP 9 COLLEGE FOOTBALL STABILITY MISMATCHES FOR WEEK 1 The longer and more religiously you read the Football Weekly, you will notice that we tend to run a general series of articles throughout the season and repeat them often year after year. The reason for this is that, for the most part, the timing and methodologies beyond these articles are well-tested over the years by myself and our other writers, and they choose to lend their expertise in winning strategies to you through our publication. With that in mind, one of the most anticpated pieces that I develop each year comes right out of the gate in Week 1 of the college football season, and that is our Stability Mismatch study. In having worked with people of both sides of the betting window for many years, I have found that the amount of preseason preparation that people take on can vary greatly from book-to-book, from bettor-tobettor. Because of this, there can be huge misses by those setting the numbers. Doing the homework early has become one of the most important aspects for college football bettors hoping to enjoy a successful campaign. There are many reasons why things can change dramatically from one season to the next in college football, among them the four year eligibility rules, the pressure now placed on coaching staffs at every level program, and of course player transgressions off the field. The result is that there is always significant turnover from year-to-year, both on the field and on the sidelines. Bettors expecting to see the same thing they watched from a team at the end of the prior season are most often unpleasantly surprised. It is therefore crucial to make scouring the internet and preseason publications a can t-miss step in the handicapping process. Being a numbers guys, I like to do a little exercise I call quantifying the level of stability for each team. I figure that the higher level of stability, the better the chances for success for any team, particularly early in the season. Naturally putting a numerical grade to it makes it easier to spot these stability mismatches. Now, the pointspread considered, the feeling is that oddsmakers don t adjust enough for the instability factors. Over the last several years, I have implemented an early season strategy that employs backing the teams with the greatest stability ratings and fading those in the most unstable situations. In each of the last three years, my Top 10 games list was 6-4 ATS. Now that isn t earthshattering results, but I ll take 60% using a somewhat simple statistical method anytime. Of course, these numbers can also be improved by factoring in other successful handicapping strategies as well. Just below, I ve once again put together a list of the Top College Football Stability Mismatches for Week 1 on the schedule. I have found that a Stability Mismatch score of 7 is the minimum on which I will consider a play for this thought process. That is the reason there are only NINE games for this week 1. For the rest of the first month of the season, I will continue to offer the weekly mismatches for you to use. I typically believe that after 2-3 games for each team, oddsmakers are able to catchup and fully adjust for the changes to the teams. However, you should feel comfortable in employing this strategy in the first few weeks while the dust settles. Before showing the mismatch games here are the basics for how we determine each team s Total Stability Score. In essence, the score is determined from five different stabilizing factors, Head Coach, Offensive Coordinator, Defensive Coordinator, Quarterback, and Overall Returning Starters. You will find a breakdown of all 130 FBS teams and their Stability Scores on the chart at the conclusion of this article, but in short, here is how the scores are determined: Returning Head Coach Points Yes, same Head Coach as 2016: 4 points No, new Head Coach for 2017: 0 points Returning Offensive Coordinator Points Yes, same Offensive Coordinator as 2016: 3 points No, new Offensive Coordinator for 2017: 0 points Returning Defensive Coordinator Points Yes, same Defensive Coordinator as 2016: 3 points No, new Defensive Coordinator for 2017: 0 points Returning Starting Quarterback Points Yes, same Starting Quarterback as 2016: 4 points No, new Starting Quarterback for 2017: 0 points Returning Starter Points 0-7 returning offensive & defensive starters: 0 points 8-9: 1 point 10-12: 2 points 13-16: 3 points 17-19: 4 points 20-22: 5 points If you analyze the chart of the 130 FBS teams, you ll see that there are many teams this season in very troubling or unsettling situations. In fact, there are eight teams with Stability Scores of 3 or less. Ole Miss, Temple, and Western Michigan in particular, face uphill battles, with nationwide low scores of 2. On the other hand, there are five teams that post a score of 18 for 2017, Georgia, Miami Ohio, NC State, Syracuse, and TCU. Considering that 19 is the max score, those programs figure to be in good shape for the coming season. Georgia, NC State & Miami Ohio are VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 7
AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly 8 of particular note, as they come off impressive bowl performances to end 2016, and have seemingly found their quarterbacks of the future. What we are really interested in is finding spots where this information is most useful, and from our experience, looking for mismatches in stability is a great way to do it. We do this by simply comparing the Stability Scores of the two teams in a given matchup and calculating the difference. The larger the number, the bigger the supposed mismatch. Now, this doesn t mean that the team with the higher Stability Score is the better team, just that they are more stable. We are then making the assumption that oddsmakers have not accounted for this factor enough when setting their lines. That said, here are the Top 9 College Football Stability Mismatches for 2017 Week 1: T-1. (135) BUFFALO (+26) at (136) MINNESOTA - Stability Advantage: BUFFALO by 14 Analysis: For as much magic as P.J. Fleck brought to Western Michigan, and Gophers fans hope he can bring to Minnesota, it can t be forgotten that Fleck was just 1-11 Su & 4-8 ATS in his first season at WMU. That is the nature of instability. The change might be good in the long run, but Fleck s guys might not grasp the row the boat concept as quickly as he might like. In their first test, the Gophers are nearly a 4-TD favorite against a Buffalo team that enters the third year of the Lance Leipold era. Off a 2-10 season, there is pressure on Leipold to get it going, and if program instability has any say in this one, the Bulls will at least be more competitive than oddsmakers foresee. T-1. (179) S ALABAMA (+24) at (180) OLE MISS - Stability Advantage: S ALABAMA by 14 Analysis: There are certain programs each year where the instability situation comes as a surprise, or as a result of poor program decision-making or transgressions. That is the case with Ole Miss in 2017, as they push forward without disgraced head coach Hugh Freeze, who made some regrettable phone calls on behalf of some recruits he was pursuing. So not only are the Rebels without their coach of the L5 years, they must also replace QB Chad Kelly, who essentially was the offense of the last few seasons. Their first matchup is one that figures to get overlooked, a home game against South Alabama, a Sun Belt team that was 6-7 last year and played in a bowl game. Don t forget, the Jaguars upset Mississippi State on the road in the 2016 season opener. T-1. (181) W MICHIGAN at (182) USC (-27.5) - Stability Advantage: USC by 14 Analysis: PJ Fleck s leaving Western Michigan affected two universities. The one left to pick up the pieces is WMU. He is replaced by Tim Lester, and if that name rings a bell, it s because he was a former prolific QB for the Broncos. His first task is to find a replacement QB of his own, as Zach Terrell has used up his eligibility. The first test for Lester and the Broncos couldn t get any tougher, as they have to travel to L.A. to take on a USC team with championship aspirations. The Trojans are loaded with QB Sam Darnold leading the way and are rightfully a near 4-TD favorite. T-1. (195) HOUSTON at (196) TX-SAN ANTONIO (+12.5) - Stability Advantage: TX-SAN ANTONIO by 14 Analysis: Tom Herman barely moved his stuff into his Houston offices before he was whicked away by the lures of the Texas program. What becomes of the Cougars program for the immediate future remains to be seen, but from my experience, mid-major powers that lose head coach-quarterback tandems like Herman and Greg Ward tend to drop off sharply right away. There are some nice pieces in place, including new QB Kyle Allen, a Texas A&M transfer, but so much of this program s success over the last two season was about riding momentum. The first test for the Cougars is a difficult one, as they hit the road take on a hungry UTSA team that reached its first bowl game last December. QB Dalton Storm is a senior, and the Roadrunners defense was a sound unit in 2016. A double-digit line seems extreme here. T-5. (169) FLA INTERNATIONAL at (170) UCF (-16.5) - Stability Advantage: UCF by 10 Analysis: At one point last season, Scott Frost s first year UCF team went on a 7-1 ATS run, only to run out gas in the season s final month. Considering the massive improvement the Knights made from 2015, the campaign was a rousing success. Frost will look to continue building on that momentum in 2017 as he brings back an experienced group, particularly on offense, where nine starters return. The first game is certainly winnable, against Florida International, who turns to a veteran coach, Butch Davis, to turn things around. He replaces another old err I mean veteran coach, Ron Turner, who just couldn t find success at FIU. There are 15 starters back for the Panthers, but when that team was outscored by nearly 11 PPG last season, is that a positive? T-5. (171) NEVADA at (172) NORTHWESTERN (-23.5) - Stability Advantage: NORTHWESTERN by 10 Analysis: If there is one word that can be used to describe the Northwestern football program nowadays, certainly STABLE could be it. Pat Fitzgerald begins his 12th season atop the program, and he brings back 16 starters for 2017 from the team that closed last season by beating Pittsburgh in the Pinstripe Bowl. Quarterback Clayton Thorsen is the headliner of that group after leading his team to a 3-year scoring high of 26.0 PPG a year ago. Nevada is the week 1 opponent for the Wildcats, and for those of you that might be surprised by the 23.5-point line, don t overlook the facts that the Wolf Pack are in a difficult travel spot to open the season, are playing their first game under new head coach Jay Norvell, AND have installed an Air Raid offense, not exactly a seamless transition from the pistol. 7. (151) COLORADO ST (+6.5) vs. (152) COLORADO - Stability Advantage: COLORADO ST by 8 Analysis: Both Colorado State & Colorado enjoyed nice 2016 campaigns. The Buffaloes were the better team however, and proved it with the resounding 44-7 head-to-head whipping in the season s first week. That propelled Colorado to a 10-win season. The pressure to match that success will be heavy in 2017, as eight sarters must be replaced from THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
Football Weekly a defense that was terrific. It was so good, that coordinator Jim Leavitt was poached by Oregon. On offense, the main star, QB Sefo Liufau must also be replaced. As such, Colorado State has some nice advantages for this year s week 1 contest. The Rams are in good shape under 3rd year head coach Mike Bobo, and are led by senior QB Nick Stevens, who had a huge game in the bowl loss to Idaho. T-8. (133) OHIO ST (-20) at (134) INDIANA - Stability Advantage: OHIO ST by 7 Analysis: Expectations are high in Columbus this season, and they should be, as 15 starters are back for HC Urban Meyer, including QB JT Barrett. The last time the Buckeyes brought back that many starters was in 2012, Meyer s first season with Ohio State. Just for the record, that team finished 12-0. One of the more difficult matchups for OSU each season has been Indiana, as the Hoosiers have taken six straight in the series against the spread. However, the fact that this line is under three touchdowns could be a gift, as Indiana is starting anew under HC Tom Allen and an entirely new coaching staff. T-8. (167) ARKANSAS ST (+16.5) at (168) NEBRASKA - Stability Advantage: ARKANSAS ST by 7 Analysis: Nebraska has just 10 starters back in 2017 from its 9-4 season of a year ago. Gone are QB Tommy Armstrong and stud DE Ross Dzuris, as well as defensive coordinator Mark Banker, who was fired. On the surface, that doesn t seem like an extreme amount on instability to deal with. However, the team the Cornhuskers face in week 1 is in a very stable situation itself. Arkansas State is one of the favorites in the Sun Belt Conference, is off an 8-5 bowl game winning season, has quarterback Justice Hansen back, and its entire coaching staff intact. The Red Wolves also won eight of their L9 games of 2016. Momentum is on ASU s side. 2016 Change? (0-yes) Ret TOTAL 2016 Change? (0-yes) Ret TOTAL Team (Conference) Record HC?OC?DC?QB? Strs STABILITY Team (Conference) Record HC?OC?DC? QB? Strs STABILITY AIR FORCE (MTN WEST) 10-3 4 3 3 4 0 (7) 14 MISSOURI (SEC) 4-8 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17 AKRON (MAC) 5-7 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17 N ILLINOIS (MAC) 5-7 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12 ALABAMA (SEC) 14-1 4 0 3 4 2 (11) 13 NAVY (AMER ATH) 9-5 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12 APPALACHIAN ST (SBC) 10-3 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17 NC STATE (ACC) 7-6 4 3 3 4 4 (17) 18 ARIZONA (PAC 12) 3-9 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17 NEBRASKA (BIG TEN) 9-4 4 3 0 0 2 (10) 9 ARIZONA ST (PAC 12) 5-7 4 0 0 4 3 (15) 11 NEVADA (MTN WEST) 5-7 0 0 0 4 3 (14) 7 ARKANSAS (SEC) 7-6 4 3 0 4 3 (13) 14 NEW MEXICO (MTN WEST) 9-4 4 3 3 4 2 (10) 16 ARKANSAS ST (SBC) 8-5 4 3 3 4 2 (10) 16 NEW MEXICO ST (SBC) 3-9 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17 ARMY (IND) 8-5 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17 NORTH CAROLINA (ACC) 8-5 4 3 0 0 2 (12) 9 AUBURN (SEC) 8-5 4 0 3 4 3 (15) 14 NORTH TEXAS (CUSA) 5-8 4 3 3 4 2 (11) 16 BALL ST (MAC) 4-8 4 3 0 4 2 (12) 13 NORTHWESTERN (BIG TEN) 7-6 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17 BAYLOR (BIG 12) 7-6 0 0 0 0 3 (13) 3 NOTRE DAME (IND) 4-8 4 0 0 0 3 (15) 7 BOISE ST (MTN WEST) 10-3 4 3 3 4 1 (9) 15 OHIO ST (BIG TEN) 11-2 4 0 3 4 3 (15) 14 BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC) 7-6 4 3 3 0 3 (15) 13 OHIO U (MAC) 8-6 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17 BOWLING GREEN (MAC) 4-8 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 OKLAHOMA (BIG 12) 11-2 0 3 3 4 3 (16) 13 BUFFALO (MAC) 2-10 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17 OKLAHOMA ST (BIG 12) 10-3 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 BYU (IND) 9-4 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 OLD DOMINION (CUSA) 10-3 4 3 3 0 3 (14) 13 C MICHIGAN (MAC) 6-7 4 0 3 0 3 (15) 10 OLE MISS (SEC) 5-7 0 0 0 0 2 (11) 2 CALIFORNIA (PAC 12) 5-7 0 0 0 0 3 (14) 3 OREGON (PAC 12) 4-8 0 0 0 4 4 (17) 8 CHARLOTTE (CUSA) 4-8 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 OREGON ST (PAC 12) 4-8 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17 CINCINNATI (AMER ATH) 4-8 0 0 0 4 2 (10) 6 PENN ST (BIG TEN) 11-3 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17 CLEMSON (ACC) 14-1 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12 PITTSBURGH (ACC) 8-5 4 0 3 0 2 (10) 9 COASTAL CAROLINA (SBC) 10-2 4 3 3 4 2 (10) 16 PURDUE (BIG TEN) 3-9 0 0 0 4 3 (13) 7 COLORADO (PAC 12) 10-4 4 3 0 0 2 (12) 9 RICE (CUSA) 3-9 4 3 0 0 3 (16) 10 COLORADO ST (MTN WEST) 7-6 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17 RUTGERS (BIG TEN) 2-10 4 0 3 4 3 (14) 14 CONNECTICUT (AMER ATH) 3-9 0 0 0 4 3 (14) 7 S ALABAMA (SBC) 6-7 4 3 3 4 2 (10) 16 DUKE (ACC) 4-8 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 SAN DIEGO ST (MTN WEST) 11-3 4 3 0 4 2 (11) 13 E MICHIGAN (MAC) 7-6 4 0 3 4 3 (16) 14 SAN JOSE ST (MTN WEST) 4-8 0 0 0 0 3 (15) 3 EAST CAROLINA (AMER ATH) 3-9 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12 SMU (AMER ATH) 5-7 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17 FLA ATLANTIC (CUSA) 3-9 0 0 0 4 4 (17) 8 SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC) 6-7 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17 FLA INTERNATIONAL (CUSA) 4-8 0 0 0 4 3 (15) 7 SOUTH FLORIDA (AMER ATH) 11-2 0 0 0 4 3 (16) 7 FLORIDA (SEC) 9-4 4 3 0 4 3 (14) 14 SOUTHERN MISS (CUSA) 7-6 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12 FLORIDA ST (ACC) 10-3 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17 STANFORD (PAC 12) 10-3 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17 FRESNO ST (MTN WEST) 1-11 0 0 0 4 3 (16) 7 SYRACUSE (ACC) 4-8 4 3 3 4 4 (19) 18 GA SOUTHERN (SBC) 5-7 4 0 3 0 2 (10) 9 TCU (BIG 12) 6-7 4 3 3 4 4 (17) 18 GEORGIA (SEC) 8-5 4 3 3 4 4 (17) 18 TEMPLE (AMER ATH) 10-4 0 0 0 0 2 (10) 2 GEORGIA ST (SBC) 3-9 0 0 0 4 3 (14) 7 TENNESSEE (SEC) 9-4 4 0 3 0 3 (14) 10 GEORGIA TECH (ACC) 9-4 4 3 3 0 3 (16) 13 TEXAS (BIG 12) 5-7 0 0 0 4 4 (17) 8 HAWAII (MTN WEST) 7-7 4 0 0 4 3 (14) 11 TEXAS A&M (SEC) 8-5 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12 HOUSTON (AMER ATH) 9-4 0 0 0 0 3 (15) 3 TEXAS ST UNIV (SBC) 2-10 4 0 3 0 3 (13) 10 IDAHO (SBC) 9-4 4 3 3 4 2 (10) 16 TEXAS TECH (BIG 12) 5-7 4 3 3 0 3 (14) 13 ILLINOIS (BIG TEN) 3-9 4 3 3 0 2 (11) 12 TOLEDO (MAC) 9-4 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 INDIANA (BIG TEN) 6-7 0 0 0 4 3 (15) 7 TROY (SBC) 10-3 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17 IOWA (BIG TEN) 8-5 4 3 3 0 3 (15) 13 TULANE (AMER ATH) 4-8 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17 IOWA ST (BIG 12) 3-9 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 TULSA (AMER ATH) 10-3 4 3 3 0 3 (13) 13 KANSAS (BIG 12) 2-10 4 0 3 4 3 (13) 14 TX-SAN ANTONIO (CUSA) 6-7 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17 KANSAS ST (BIG 12) 9-4 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17 UAB (CUSA) N/A 4 0 0 0 0 (4) 4 KENT ST (MAC) 3-9 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17 UCF (AMER ATH) 6-7 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17 KENTUCKY (SEC) 7-6 4 3 0 4 4 (17) 15 UCLA (PAC 12) 4-8 4 0 3 4 3 (15) 14 LA LAFAYETTE (SBC) 6-7 4 0 3 0 3 (13) 10 UNLV (MTN WEST) 4-8 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 LA MONROE (SBC) 4-8 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17 USC (PAC 12) 10-3 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 LOUISIANA TECH (CUSA) 9-5 4 3 3 0 2 (11) 12 UTAH (PAC 12) 9-4 4 0 3 0 1 (9) 8 LOUISVILLE (ACC) 9-4 4 3 0 4 2 (11) 13 UTAH ST (MTN WEST) 3-9 4 0 3 4 2 (10) 13 LSU (SEC) 8-4 4 0 3 4 2 (11) 13 UTEP (CUSA) 4-8 4 3 3 4 2 (12) 16 MARSHALL (CUSA) 3-9 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17 VANDERBILT (SEC) 6-7 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17 MARYLAND (BIG TEN) 6-7 4 3 3 0 3 (13) 13 VIRGINIA (ACC) 2-10 4 3 3 4 3 (14) 17 MASSACHUSETTS (IND) 2-10 4 3 0 4 3 (15) 14 VIRGINIA TECH (ACC) 10-4 4 3 3 0 2 (12) 12 MEMPHIS (AMER ATH) 8-5 4 3 3 4 3 (15) 17 W KENTUCKY (CUSA) 11-3 0 0 0 4 2 (10) 6 MIAMI FL (ACC) 9-4 4 3 3 0 3 (15) 13 W MICHIGAN (MAC) 13-1 0 0 0 0 2 (12) 2 MIAMI OHIO (MAC) 6-7 4 3 3 4 4 (17) 18 WAKE FOREST (ACC) 7-6 4 3 0 4 3 (14) 14 MICHIGAN (BIG TEN) 10-3 4 3 3 4 0 (5) 14 WASHINGTON (PAC 12) 12-2 4 3 3 4 3 (13) 17 MICHIGAN ST (BIG TEN) 3-9 4 3 3 0 1 (9) 11 WASHINGTON ST (PAC 12) 8-5 4 3 3 4 3 (16) 17 MIDDLE TENN ST (CUSA) 8-5 4 3 0 4 2 (12) 13 WEST VIRGINIA (BIG 12) 10-3 4 0 3 0 1 (8) 8 MINNESOTA (BIG TEN) 9-4 0 0 0 0 3 (13) 3 WISCONSIN (BIG TEN) 11-3 4 3 0 4 3 (15) 14 MISSISSIPPI ST (SEC) 6-7 4 3 0 4 3 (13) 14 WYOMING (MTN WEST) 8-6 4 3 0 4 3 (14) 14 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 9
AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly (133) OHIO ST (-21 56) [SU:11-2 ATS:6-7] AT (134) INDIANA [SU:6-7 ATS:6-7] AUGUST 31, 2017 8:00 PM on ESPN - MEMORIAL STADIUM (BLOOMINGTON, IN) OHIO ST (2) 39.4 24 45-245 [5.5] 31-20-214 [6.8] 11.6 15.5 15 37-125 [3.4] 31-15-172 [5.6] 19.2 +15 +23.9 INDIANA 25.8 21 41-153 [3.7] 35-20-274 [7.8] 16.6 27.2 19 43-160 [3.8] 32-17-220 [6.8] 14.0-6 -1.4 The Big Ten takes the spotlight on the first Thursday of the college football season. Ohio State is the favorite in the conference and an expected Final Four participant, with a loaded squad and J.T. Barrett back at quarterback. Coach Urban Meyer likes his remade offense line and is impressed with what former Indiana HC Kevin Wilson has done to the offense. The Buckeyes have won 10 straight (7-3 ATS) in Bloomington. The Hoosiers had uncomfortable firing of Wilson, yet they think they can have winning season and win bowl, lead by QB Richard Lagow and linebacker Tegray Scales. Being nearly a three-touchdown underdog, Indiana wants to win or at least stay close, building confidence with three winnable contests on deck. OHIO ST is 32-17-1 ATS(L50G) on ROAD - All Games INDIANA is 5-8-1 ATS(L3Y) at HOME - All Games INDIANA is 18-7 OVER(L25G) - AS underdog of more than 7 points 2016-10-08 INDIANA (17) at OHIO ST (38) -28 61.5 NORTHWESTERN ROAD DOG UNDER 2015-10-03 OHIO ST (34) at INDIANA (27) +21 66.0 INDIANA HOME DOG UNDER 2014-11-22 INDIANA (27) at OHIO ST (42) -36.5 66.0 INDIANA ROAD DOG OVER 2013-11-23 INDIANA (14) at OHIO ST (42) -33 79.0 INDIANA ROAD DOG UNDER 2012-10-13 OHIO ST (52) at INDIANA (49) +19.5 64.0 INDIANA HOME DOG OVER Indiana has won the L6 ATS versus Ohio St, all as DD underdog (135) BUFFALO [SU:2-10 ATS:4-8] AT (136) MINNESOTA (-24.5 50) [SU:9-4 ATS:7-5-1] AUGUST 31, 2017 7:00 PM on BTN - TCF BANK STADIUM (MINNEAPOLIS, MN) BUFFALO 16.5 18 35-153 [4.3] 33-18-200 [6.1] 21.4 32.3 22 50-253 [5.1] 24-14-183 [7.7] 13.5-6 -15.8 MINNESOTA 29.3 19 43-184 [4.3] 25-14-174 [6.9] 12.2 22.1 19 35-118 [3.4] 37-21-231 [6.2] 15.8 +8 +7.2 BUFFALO is 10-2 UNDER(L3Y) - AS underdog of more than 7 points 2002-09-21 BUFFALO (17) at MINNESOTA (41) -31 53.0 BUFFALO ROAD DOG OVER (137) LA MONROE [SU:4-8 ATS:6-6] AT (138) MEMPHIS (-27 67) [SU:8-5 ATS:5-8] AUGUST 31, 2017 9:00 PM on CBSSN - LIBERTY BOWL (MEMPHIS, TN) LA MONROE 23.3 21 43-181 [4.2] 30-16-192 [6.3] 16.0 39.1 24 45-258 [5.7] 27-16-222 [8.2] 12.3-11 -15.8 MEMPHIS 38.8 23 37-161 [4.3] 37-23-304 [8.3] 12.0 28.8 24 41-205 [5.0] 38-23-250 [6.6] 15.8 +8 +10.0 LA MONROE is 9-2 OVER(L2Y) - All Games 2000-09-09 LA MONROE (0) at MEMPHIS (28) -17.5 NL MEMPHIS HOME FAV 10 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
Football Weekly (139) NEW MEXICO ST [SU:3-9 ATS:7-5] AT (140) ARIZONA ST (-23.5 71.5) [SU:5-7 ATS:6-6] AUGUST 31, 2017 10:30 PM on PAC12 - SUN DEVIL STADIUM (TEMPE, AZ) NEW MEXICO ST 24.8 22 38-169 [4.5] 38-21-245 [6.4] 16.7 38.8 24 46-249 [5.4] 30-19-252 [8.4] 12.9 +1-14.0 ARIZONA ST 33.3 20 40-131 [3.3] 35-21-259 [7.3] 11.7 39.8 23 33-163 [4.9] 40-26-357 [8.8] 13.1-4 -6.5 NEW MEXICO ST is 20-3 OVER(L25G) - Non-conference games (169) FLA INTERNATIONAL [SU:4-8 ATS:5-6-1] AT (170) UCF (-17 56.5) [SU:6-7 ATS:8-5] AUGUST 31, 2017 6:00 PM on CBSSN - BRIGHT HOUSE NETWORKS STADIUM (ORLANDO, FL) FLA INT 24.0 20 35-149 [4.2] 34-20-227 [6.7] 15.7 34.8 22 38-201 [5.3] 30-19-233 [7.7] 12.5-9 -10.8 UCF 28.8 19 41-141 [3.5] 34-19-210 [6.1] 12.2 24.6 20 44-170 [3.8] 33-17-201 [6.0] 15.1 +1 +4.2 UCF is 7-1-1 UNDER(L3Y) at HOME - VS Non-ranked team 2016-09-24 UCF (53) at FLORIDA INTL (14) +10 52.5 UCF ROAD FAV OVER 2015-09-03 FLORIDA INTL (15) at UCF (14) -13 44.0 FLORIDA INTL ROAD DOG UNDER 2013-09-06 UCF (38) at FLORIDA INTL (0) +24 53.0 UCF ROAD FAV UNDER 2012-09-15 FLORIDA INTL (20) at UCF (33) -14.5 49.5 FLORIDA INTL ROAD DOG OVER 2011-09-17 UCF (10) at FLORIDA INTL (17) +6.5 49.5 FLORIDA INTL HOME DOG UNDER Road teams are on a 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS run in the FIU-UCF series (199) TULSA [SU:10-3 ATS:9-4] AT (200) OKLAHOMA ST (-18 74) [SU:10-3 ATS:8-5] AUGUST 31, 2017 7:30 PM on FS1 - BOONE PICKENS STADIUM (STILLWATER, OK) TULSA 42.5 29 51-262 [5.1] 34-20-265 [7.7] 12.4 29.8 20 40-178 [4.4] 38-20-250 [6.7] 14.4 0 +12.7 OKLAHOMA ST (10) 38.6 24 38-171 [4.6] 36-23-324 [9.0] 12.8 26.5 23 42-195 [4.6] 33-20-251 [7.6] 16.8 +11 +12.1 Off a 10-3 campaign, Tulsa is a real contender this season in the AAC West, but first has to face in-state partner for the first time since 2011. The Golden Hurricane lost the majority of their playmakers on offense, but does return a veteran offensive line. Linebacker Craig Stuts anchors the defense, however, Tulsa will have their hands full trying to contain Oklahoma State explosive crew. If anyone is expected to dethrone Oklahoma in the Big 12, coach Mike Gundy s gang is that group. The Cowboys have stars like QB Mason Rudolph and WR James Washington and last year s inexperienced defense has been through the wars and is better prepared. Okie State should roll, just keep in mind Tulsa is 8-1 ATS as road underdogs. OKLAHOMA ST is 29-11 ATS(S2000) at HOME - as favorite of more than 14 points TULSA is 3-8 ATS(L11G) on ROAD - VS BIG12 OKLAHOMA ST is 10-2 OVER(L3Y) at HOME - All Games 2011-09-17 OKLAHOMA ST (59) at TULSA (33) +13 66.5 OKLAHOMA ST ROAD FAV OVER 2010-09-18 TULSA (28) at OKLAHOMA ST (65) -7 69.0 OKLAHOMA ST HOME FAV OVER 2004-09-11 TULSA (21) at OKLAHOMA ST (38) -22 NL TULSA ROAD DOG 2000-09-09 OKLAHOMA ST (36) at TULSA (26) +14 NL TULSA HOME DOG 11 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly (141) CHARLOTTE [SU:4-8 ATS:5-7] AT (142) E MICHIGAN (-14.5 56.5) [SU:7-6 ATS:10-3] SEPTEMBER 1, 2017 6:30 PM on ESPN3 - RYNEARSON STADIUM (YPSILANTI, MI) CHARLOTTE 25.2 20 41-176 [4.3] 34-18-192 [5.6] 14.6 34.6 24 34-143 [4.2] 41-26-310 [7.5] 13.1 +8-9.4 E MICHIGAN 29.6 23 37-159 [4.3] 40-24-296 [7.4] 15.4 29.8 24 39-168 [4.3] 35-21-262 [7.4] 14.4 +1-0.2 CHARLOTTE is 2-9-2 ATS(L3Y) - AS double digit underdog 2016-09-17 E MICHIGAN (37) at CHARLOTTE (19) +2 63.0 E MICHIGAN ROAD FAV UNDER (143) WASHINGTON (-30.5 52) [SU:12-2 ATS:7-7] AT (144) RUTGERS [SU:2-10 ATS:4-8] SEPTEMBER 1, 2017 8:00 PM on FS1 - HIGH POINT SOLUTIONS STADIUM (PISCATAWAY, NJ) WASHINGTON (8) 41.8 23 38-198 [5.2] 29-18-259 [8.9] 10.9 17.7 18 37-134 [3.6] 32-18-183 [5.7] 17.9 +18 +24.1 RUTGERS 15.7 15 41-145 [3.6] 28-13-138 [5.0] 18.0 37.5 20 46-264 [5.7] 25-14-186 [7.6] 12.0-5 -21.8 Last season, Washington whipped Rutgers 48-13 as 25-point home favorites and in the return engagement in New Jersey, more of the same is expected. At last look the Huskies were better than four-touchdown favorites, with QB Jake Browning back and a solid cast of returning players and new starters who saw ample action on 2016. The secondary has to be rebuilt, however, DT Vita Vea and LB Azeem Victor should be the leaders of a Huskies defense. The Scarlet Knights have only five starters back on offense and the defense was 116th in points allowed last season. Rutgers can only play this game series by series and try to win any battles they can. The Knights are 1-9 ATS as underdogs of 20 or more. WASHINGTON is 9-4 ATS(S2000) - On Friday RUTGERS is 2-9 ATS(L3Y) - AS underdog of more than 14 points WASHINGTON is 9-4 UNDER(L5Y) - Non-conference games 2016-09-03 RUTGERS (13) at WASHINGTON (48) -25 56.0 WASHINGTON HOME FAV OVER (145) NAVY (-10.5 68.5) [SU:9-5 ATS:8-5-1] AT (146) FLA ATLANTIC [SU:3-9 ATS:2-10] SEPTEMBER 1, 2017 8:00 PM on ESPNU - FAU FOOTBALL STADIUM (BOCCA RATON, FL) NAVY 37.9 21 53-310 [5.9] 11-7-128 [11.4] 11.6 31.0 22 39-180 [4.6] 29-19-254 [8.6] 14.0 +2 +6.9 FLA ATLANTIC 26.4 21 39-188 [4.8] 30-18-210 [6.9] 15.1 39.8 25 45-245 [5.5] 30-19-268 [9.1] 12.9-5 -13.4 NAVY is 9-3-1 ATS(L5Y) - In September 2012-11-03 FL ATLANTIC (17) at NAVY (24) -17 51.0 FL ATLANTIC ROAD DOG UNDER VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY SEASON PASS - $259 FULL SEASON The Tip Sheet Season Pass runs through Febraury 2018, so you ll be covered for the entire Regular Season and Playoffs. 12 $259 FULL SEASON VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM/WEEKLY-INSIDER THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
Football Weekly (147) UTAH ST [SU:3-9 ATS:3-9] AT (148) WISCONSIN (-28 48.5) [SU:11-3 ATS:10-4] SEPTEMBER 1, 2017 9:00 PM on ESPN - CAMP RANDALL STADIUM (MADISON, WI) UTAH ST 23.9 19 34-170 [5.0] 32-18-206 [6.5] 15.7 29.3 21 46-203 [4.4] 26-15-176 [6.7] 12.9-5 -5.4 WISCONSIN (9) 28.4 20 47-203 [4.3] 23-14-179 [7.8] 13.5 15.6 16 30-99 [3.3] 31-16-203 [6.5] 19.4 +13 +12.8 By now, the Wisconsin players and coaches have tucked away how they lost Big Ten championship to Penn State and would like nothing better than to return and have another shot at it. There is every reason to believe they can, with QB Alex Hornibrook an experienced sophomore and 16 other starters. Though Paul Chryst is a noted offense coach, the Badgers defense has become one of the best in the country the last few years and should be nasty again. Utah State is coming off 3-9 (4-8 ATS) campaign, it s worst since 2008. With just eight starters back, the Aggies could be in for another long season and it seems unlikely they can improve on 10-4 ATS mark versus ranked foes as the underdog. UTAH ST is 15-5-1 ATS(S2000) - On Friday WISCONSIN is 7-12 ATS(S2000) at HOME - VS Opp With 1000 or more travel miles UTAH ST is 16-5 UNDER(L25G) - Non-conference games 2012-09-15 UTAH ST (14) at WISCONSIN (16) -14 51.5 UTAH ST ROAD DOG UNDER (149) BOSTON COLLEGE (-3 46) [SU:7-6 ATS:6-6-1] AT (150) N ILLINOIS [SU:5-7 ATS:6-5-1] SEPTEMBER 1, 2017 9:30 PM on CBSSN - HUSKIE STADIUM (DEKALB, IL) BOSTON COLLEGE 20.4 15 44-149 [3.4] 23-12-146 [6.4] 14.5 25.0 15 32-109 [3.4] 29-16-205 [7.0] 12.6 +7-4.6 N ILLINOIS 30.5 23 46-240 [5.2] 33-19-224 [6.7] 15.2 30.3 24 43-201 [4.6] 35-20-251 [7.2] 14.9-1 +0.2 BOSTON COLLEGE is 9-0-1 UNDER(S2000) - Before playing WAKE FOREST 2015-09-26 N ILLINOIS (14) at BOSTON COLLEGE (17) -3.5 44.5 N ILLINOIS ROAD DOG UNDER 13 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly (151) COLORADO ST [SU:8-6 ATS:11-3] VS (152) COLORADO (-6.5 63) [SU:10-4 ATS:10-4] SEPTEMBER 1, 2017 8:00 PM on PAC12 - SPORTS AUTHORITY FIELD AT MILE HIGH (DENVER, CO)[NEUT] COLORADO ST 36.9 23 42-216 [5.2] 28-17-251 [8.8] 12.7 30.1 21 43-210 [4.8] 26-15-213 [8.2] 14.1 +2 +6.8 COLORADO 31.1 23 46-183 [4.0] 34-21-253 [7.5] 14.0 21.7 17 36-149 [4.1] 33-16-192 [5.8] 15.7 +6 +9.4 For a number of years, this was a marquee contest on a national network. No takers this season, nonetheless, this should good ballgame. Colorado graduated QB Sefo Liufau, a four-year starter and most of its defense, yet the cupboard is not bare and Steven Montez has ability as the Buffaloes signal caller. Colorado s offense should still be very good and in last year s 44-7 romping of rival Colorado State, the speed difference was remarkable. The Buffs are 16-7 and 10-12-1 ATS versus the Rams since 1992. CSU recovered from that defeat and was a betting force in the MWC with a 7-1 ATS record. Nick Stevens returned as quarterback and led an extremely effective offense. How the Rams defense holds up will determine outcome. COLORADO is 10-4 ATS(L2Y) - All Games COLORADO ST is 6-13-1 ATS(S2000) at NEUTRAL SITE - VS Non-ranked team COLORADO is 8-2 UNDER(L3Y) - Against efficient defenses allowing more than 15.7 yards per point(cs) 2016-09-02 * COLORADO ST (7) at COLORADO (44) -7 57.5 COLORADO xxxx FAV UNDER 2015-09-19 * COLORADO ST (24) at COLORADO (27) -3 56.0 x x x x x xxxx xxx UNDER 2014-08-29 * COLORADO ST (31) at COLORADO (17) -2.5 53.5 COLORADO ST xxxx DOG UNDER 2013-09-01 * COLORADO ST (27) at COLORADO (41) +3 50.0 COLORADO xxxx DOG OVER 2012-09-01 * COLORADO ST (22) at COLORADO (17) -6 47.5 COLORADO ST xxxx DOG UNDER Eight of the L9 games in the CSU-COL series went UNDER the total Underdogs are on a 9-5-1 ATS run in the CSU-COL series since 02 (153) BOWLING GREEN [SU:4-8 ATS:4-8] AT (154) MICHIGAN ST (-17.5 56.5) [SU:3-9 ATS:4-8] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 12:00 PM on ESPNU - SPARTAN STADIUM (EAST LANSING, MI) BOWLING GREEN 24.8 23 42-181 [4.3] 37-20-226 [6.0] 16.4 38.3 23 42-191 [4.5] 32-20-273 [8.6] 12.1-16 -13.5 MICHIGAN ST 24.1 20 39-173 [4.4] 31-18-222 [7.2] 16.4 27.8 19 38-159 [4.1] 28-16-206 [7.5] 13.1-5 -3.7 MICHIGAN ST is 4-15 ATS(L3Y) - As favorite 2007-09-08 BOWLING GREEN (17) at MICHIGAN ST (28) -17.5 57.5 BOWLING GREEN ROAD DOG UNDER (155) WYOMING [SU:8-6 ATS:9-5] AT (156) IOWA (-11.5 53) [SU:8-5 ATS:6-7] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 12:00 PM on BTN - KINNICK STADIUM (IOWA CITY, IA) WYOMING 35.9 22 45-206 [4.6] 27-15-228 [8.5] 12.1 34.1 21 38-204 [5.3] 30-17-249 [8.2] 13.3 +3 +1.8 IOWA 24.9 17 39-172 [4.5] 24-13-153 [6.4] 13.1 18.8 18 38-150 [3.9] 31-16-201 [6.5] 18.7 +6 +6.1 IOWA is 8-2 OVER(L3Y) at HOME - As favorite 14 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
Football Weekly (157) MIAMI OHIO [SU:6-7 ATS:9-4] AT (158) MARSHALL (PK 51) [SU:3-9 ATS:4-7-1] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 6:30 PM - JOAN C. EDWARDS STADIUM (HUNTINGTON, WV) MIAMI OHIO 22.8 20 37-137 [3.7] 28-16-231 [8.4] 16.1 23.8 20 36-144 [4.0] 31-18-209 [6.7] 14.8 +1-1.0 MARSHALL 26.4 20 33-108 [3.3] 36-22-242 [6.6] 13.3 35.2 24 41-202 [5.0] 31-18-254 [8.2] 13.0 +4-8.8 MARSHALL is 5-1-2 UNDER(S2000) at HOME - Non-conference VS NON-BIG 5 2014-08-30 MARSHALL (42) at MIAMI OH (27) +24.5 64.0 MIAMI OH HOME DOG OVER 2013-08-31 MIAMI OH (14) at MARSHALL (52) -20.5 67.5 MARSHALL HOME FAV UNDER 2004-09-29 MIAMI OH (25) at MARSHALL (33) -7 50.0 MARSHALL HOME FAV OVER 2003-11-12 MARSHALL (6) at MIAMI OH (45) -13.5 56.5 MIAMI OH HOME FAV UNDER 2002-11-12 MIAMI OH (34) at MARSHALL (36) +2 56.0 MARSHALL HOME DOG OVER Home teams are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in the L5 of the MOH-MAR series (159) KENT ST [SU:3-9 ATS:6-6] AT (160) CLEMSON (-39.5 51) [SU:14-1 ATS:8-7] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 12:00 PM on ESPN - MEMORIAL STADIUM (CLEMSON, SC) KENT ST 20.6 15 39-167 [4.2] 24-12-142 [5.8] 15.0 28.7 22 45-190 [4.2] 29-15-197 [6.7] 13.5 +11-8.1 CLEMSON (5) 39.2 27 39-169 [4.3] 42-28-334 [8.0] 12.8 18.0 17 35-130 [3.7] 32-17-182 [5.6] 17.3-1 +21.2 The defending national champion Clemson Tigers have a program that will not be that far down even with heavy personnel losses. The offense line will be the cornerstone of the offense, as a new quarterback and other skill position players develop. The defense might not have the same depth, at least in September, but do not think for a moment this group of Tigers will be anything less than ferocious. Clemson is a massive favorite and is 10-4 ATS outside the ACC since Nov. 2014. Depending on the various power ratings, Kent State should be in everyone s bottom 10 in FBS football. The Golden Flashes have a few individual players that have All-MAC potential like DT Jon Cunningham. Rough day for Kent State. CLEMSON is 8-4 ATS(L3Y) - Non-conference games KENT ST is 8-17 ATS(L25G) - Non-conference VS BIG 5 CLEMSON is 7-2 UNDER(L5Y) - In September (161) MASSACHUSETTS [SU:2-11 ATS:7-6] AT (162) COASTAL CAROLINA (PK 59.5) [SU:10-2 ATS:0-0] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 7:00 PM on ESPN3 - BROOKS STADIUM (CONWAY, SC) MASSACHUSETTS 24.2 19 31-100 [3.2] 36-21-260 [7.2] 14.9 35.7 23 41-187 [4.6] 33-21-270 [8.1] 12.8-11 -11.5 C CAROLINA 37.2 21 49-254 [5.2] 18-11-133 [7.6] 10.4 19.3 17 33-124 [3.7] 33-18-208 [6.4] 17.2 +11 +17.9 MASSACHUSETTS is 8-3 OVER(L2Y) - VS Non-ranked team (163) AKRON [SU:5-7 ATS:4-8] AT (164) PENN ST (-32 63.5) [SU:11-3 ATS:9-4-1] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 12:00 PM on ABC - BEAVER STADIUM (UNIVERSITY PARK, PA) AKRON 27.4 19 32-132 [4.2] 33-18-256 [7.7] 14.2 33.6 24 44-225 [5.0] 32-20-241 [7.4] 13.9-8 -6.2 PENN ST (6) 37.6 20 39-172 [4.5] 28-16-261 [9.4] 11.5 25.4 20 39-151 [3.8] 34-21-217 [6.4] 14.5 +1 +12.2 AKRON is 11-3 UNDER(L5Y) on ROAD - As underdog 2014-09-06 AKRON (3) at PENN ST (21) -14 50.5 PENN ST HOME FAV UNDER 2009-09-05 AKRON (7) at PENN ST (31) -29 57.5 AKRON ROAD DOG UNDER 2006-09-02 AKRON (16) at PENN ST (34) -17.5 41.0 PENN ST HOME FAV OVER 2004-09-04 AKRON (10) at PENN ST (48) -16 52.5 PENN ST HOME FAV OVER VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 15
AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly (165) LOUISVILLE (-26.5 68) [SU:9-4 ATS:5-7-1] VS (166) PURDUE [SU:3-9 ATS:5-6-1] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 7:30 PM on FOX - LUCAS OIL STADIUM (INDIANAPOLIS, IN)[NEUT] LOUISVILLE (16) 42.5 25 40-242 [6.0] 34-19-291 [8.7] 12.5 23.8 17 37-116 [3.1] 32-17-207 [6.5] 13.6-7 +18.7 PURDUE 24.6 21 30-96 [3.2] 46-26-295 [6.3] 15.9 38.2 22 45-238 [5.2] 26-16-207 [7.9] 11.6-18 -13.6 This contest will be in Indianapolis and new Purdue head man Jeff Brohm will go against his old college where he starred, Louisville. It will take Brohm awhile in West Lafayette, but at least he has the Big Ten s leading passer from a year ago in David Blough and a versatile collection of running backs to work with. The Boilermakers defense as usual has a few solid individuals, unfortunately, they are poor when it comes to being cohesiveness. Strangely, the Boilers are 8-1 ATS away from home. Has their even been a returning Heisman Trophy winner getting less respect than Louisville s Lamar Jackson? Oddsmakers still think highly of him, listed 3rd in odds, however, just three other starters back on offense. PURDUE is 10-4 ATS(L5Y) - AS underdog of more than 20 points LOUISVILLE is 8-16-1 ATS(L25G) - as favorite of more than 20 points LOUISVILLE is 8-3 UNDER(L5Y) - as favorite of more than 7 points (167) ARKANSAS ST [SU:8-5 ATS:7-6] AT (168) NEBRASKA (-17 47) [SU:9-4 ATS:6-5-2] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 8:00 PM on BTN - MEMORIAL STADIUM (LINCOLN, NE) ARKANSAS ST 27.3 19 40-142 [3.6] 31-18-242 [7.8] 14.1 21.5 19 40-143 [3.6] 33-18-219 [6.7] 16.8 +5 +5.8 NEBRASKA 26.5 20 40-169 [4.2] 31-15-212 [6.9] 14.4 23.9 18 33-148 [4.4] 32-20-216 [6.6] 15.2 +5 +2.6 ARKANSAS ST is 10-3 UNDER(L5Y) - In September 2012-09-15 ARKANSAS ST (13) at NEBRASKA (42) -23 67.0 NEBRASKA HOME FAV UNDER 2009-09-12 ARKANSAS ST (9) at NEBRASKA (38) -21.5 52.0 NEBRASKA HOME FAV UNDER (171) NEVADA [SU:5-7 ATS:4-8] AT (172) NORTHWESTERN (-24 56.5) [SU:7-6 ATS:8-5] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 3:30 PM on BTN - RYAN FIELD (EVANSTON, IL) NEVADA 25.4 22 39-174 [4.4] 30-17-208 [7.0] 15.0 29.0 22 49-298 [6.1] 20-12-158 [7.9] 15.7 +4-3.6 NORTHWESTERN 26.0 22 39-153 [4.0] 37-22-245 [6.6] 15.3 22.2 22 37-139 [3.8] 38-23-265 [7.0] 18.2 +9 +3.8 NORTHWESTERN is 9-1 UNDER(L5Y) - In September 2007-09-08 NEVADA (31) at NORTHWESTERN (36) -10.5 53.0 NEVADA ROAD DOG OVER 2006-09-22 NORTHWESTERN (21) at NEVADA (31) -7 46.5 NEVADA HOME FAV OVER (173) BALL ST [SU:4-8 ATS:7-5] AT (174) ILLINOIS (-7 58) [SU:3-9 ATS:5-7] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 12:00 PM on BTN - MEMORIAL STADIUM (CHAMPAIGN, IL) BALL ST 27.0 24 43-220 [5.1] 36-22-229 [6.3] 16.6 30.1 23 34-151 [4.5] 40-25-320 [8.0] 15.6-10 -3.1 ILLINOIS 19.7 15 29-140 [4.8] 30-15-175 [5.9] 16.0 31.9 21 47-219 [4.6] 26-16-186 [7.2] 12.7-2 -12.2 BALL ST is 16-4 ATS(S2000) on ROAD - AS underdog of 7 or less points 2007-10-27 BALL ST (17) at ILLINOIS (28) -14 59.5 BALL ST ROAD DOG UNDER 16 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
Football Weekly (175) UTEP [SU:4-8 ATS:6-6] AT (176) OKLAHOMA (-44.5 62) [SU:11-2 ATS:7-6] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 3:30 PM on FOX - OKLAHOMA MEMORIAL STADIUM AT OWEN FIELD (NORMAN, OK) UTEP 26.3 18 34-186 [5.5] 27-16-184 [6.7] 14.1 34.9 22 39-210 [5.4] 29-17-208 [7.2] 12.0-5 -8.6 OKLAHOMA (7) 43.9 25 44-238 [5.4] 30-21-318 [10.8] 12.7 28.8 21 36-163 [4.5] 38-21-269 [7.1] 15.0 0 +15.1 UTEP is 8-2 OVER(S2000) on ROAD - VS AP top 25 2012-09-01 OKLAHOMA (24) at UTEP (7) +30 63.0 UTEP HOME DOG UNDER 2002-09-14 UTEP (0) at OKLAHOMA (68) -43.5 56.0 OKLAHOMA HOME FAV OVER 2000-09-02 UTEP (14) at OKLAHOMA (55) -28 NL OKLAHOMA HOME FAV Home teams are on a 3-0 ATS run in games between UTEP & Oklahoma (177) CALIFORNIA [SU:5-7 ATS:5-7] AT (178) NORTH CAROLINA (-11 54.5) [SU:8-5 ATS:8-5] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 12:20 PM on ACCN - KENAN STADIUM (CHAPEL HILL, NC) CALIFORNIA 37.1 28 34-154 [4.5] 52-32-359 [6.9] 13.8 42.6 27 44-273 [6.2] 33-20-245 [7.5] 12.2 +3-5.5 NORTH CAROLINA 32.3 22 31-146 [4.7] 35-24-293 [8.3] 13.6 24.9 22 51-224 [4.4] 25-14-184 [7.3] 16.4-2 +7.4 CALIFORNIA is 8-2 OVER(L5Y) - Non-conference games (179) S ALABAMA [SU:6-7 ATS:3-10] AT (180) OLE MISS (-24 58.5) [SU:5-7 ATS:4-8] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 7:30 PM on ESPNU - VAUGHT HEMINGWAY STADIUM (OXFORD, MS) S ALABAMA 25.4 19 36-143 [4.0] 32-18-246 [7.7] 15.3 27.0 21 45-216 [4.8] 24-14-175 [7.3] 14.5-2 -1.6 OLE MISS 32.6 25 35-151 [4.3] 40-24-314 [7.8] 14.3 34.0 22 45-246 [5.4] 29-17-215 [7.4] 13.6-3 -1.4 MISSISSIPPI is 6-2 OVER(L5Y) at HOME - Non-conference games (181) W MICHIGAN [SU:13-1 ATS:9-5] AT (182) USC (-27.5 57.5) [SU:10-3 ATS:8-5] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 5:15 PM on PAC12 - LOS ANGELES MEMORIAL COLISEUM (LOS ANGELES, CA) W MICHIGAN 41.6 25 45-229 [5.1] 27-19-252 [9.3] 11.6 19.8 18 32-154 [4.7] 28-16-200 [7.1] 17.9 +18 +21.8 USC (4) 34.4 25 39-200 [5.1] 36-23-276 [7.8] 13.8 24.2 19 34-139 [4.0] 34-19-228 [6.7] 15.2 0 +10.2 It is a given Western Michigan would have preferred to play USC with last year s squad that was unbeaten in the regular season and had P.J. Fleck as head coach. The Broncos will not be as good as last year, but will still have a say in the MAC race. Tim Lester is now running the program and it s a dream come true, having been the quarterback in Kalamazoo in the late 1990 s. Hard to think of a new coach having a tougher opener. USC has holes, yet nothing that does not figured to be plugged. QB Sam Darnold will run the show and Clay Helton has top notch recruits everywhere. The Trojans have covered four straight against the spread as 20+ point favorites. USC is 9-3 ATS(L5Y) at HOME - as favorite of more than 14 points W MICHIGAN is 20-28-2 ATS(L50G) - As underdog USC is 12-3 UNDER(L3Y) - VS Non-ranked team 17 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly (183) BYU [SU:10-4 ATS:8-4-2] VS (184) LSU (-12.5 47.5) [SU:8-4 ATS:6-6] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 9:30 PM on ESPN - NRG STADIUM (HOUSTON, TX)[NEUT] BYU 28.9 22 41-199 [4.8] 31-19-198 [6.3] 13.7 18.6 18 33-111 [3.3] 33-20-244 [7.3] 19.1 +13 +10.3 LSU (13) 28.3 20 38-233 [6.1] 25-14-190 [7.7] 14.9 15.8 16 36-118 [3.3] 30-16-196 [6.5] 19.9 0 +12.5 For this encounter in Houston, BYU wants to prove they deserve a larger stage. Last year s Cougars lost four times by eight points under then new coach Kalani Sitake and he has stated BYU is ready to take on anybody. On offense, he might be right as pocket-passer Tanner Mangum can make any throw, however, it will be to new receiving corp. The Cougs also have to replace entire defensive line, a nasty task against a team like LSU. Ed Orgeron understands the SEC, you better win right away. The Tigers running game will powerful, but is Danny Etling dependable enough for the Tigers to win 10 games? The LSU defense has been retooled and the Tigers are only 21-32 ATS as double digit favorites. LSU is 11-4 ATS(S2000) at NEUTRAL SITE - Against decent rushing defenses yielding less than 3.6 yards per carry(cs) BYU is 16-7 UNDER(L25G) - All Games LSU is 14-1 UNDER(L5Y) - Against solid defensive teams yielding less than 4.8 yards per play(cs) (185) MARYLAND [SU:6-7 ATS:4-9] AT (186) TEXAS (-17 56) [SU:5-7 ATS:6-6] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 12:00 PM on FS1 - ROYAL TEXAS MEMORIAL STADIUM (AUSTIN, TX) MARYLAND 25.8 18 41-200 [4.9] 26-15-178 [6.8] 14.7 29.5 23 45-215 [4.8] 30-17-212 [7.0] 14.5-7 -3.7 TEXAS (23) 31.9 25 50-239 [4.8] 33-20-252 [7.5] 15.4 31.5 23 46-190 [4.1] 34-20-258 [7.7] 14.2-3 +0.4 TEXAS is 8-3 UNDER(L3Y) - As favorite (187) TEMPLE [SU:10-4 ATS:12-2] AT (188) NOTRE DAME (-17 54) [SU:4-8 ATS:4-8] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 3:30 PM on NBC - NOTRE DAME STADIUM (SOUTH BEND, IN) TEMPLE 32.4 21 40-176 [4.4] 29-17-237 [8.2] 12.7 18.4 15 36-130 [3.6] 24-13-152 [6.2] 15.3 +6 +14.0 NOTRE DAME 30.9 21 36-163 [4.5] 32-19-254 [7.9] 13.5 27.8 20 44-182 [4.1] 26-16-196 [7.5] 13.6-4 +3.1 Extremely critical year for Brian Kelly in South Bend and a lot has to go right with new schemes on both sides of the ball and unproven field general for Notre Dame. A blowout of Temple would be a good start and that will require the offensive line and RB Josh Adams to dominate. The Irish appear strong on the back seven on defense, yet many questions remain about the defensive line. Notre Dame is 19-28-3 ATS as a home favorite since 2007. Temple is the defending AAC champions, but much has changed, with a new head coach and only eight starters back. Coming off consecutive 10-win season s the Owls upperclassmen understand what it takes, can they do it for a brand new head man? TEMPLE is 10-1 ATS(L3Y) - As underdog NOTRE DAME is 3-8 ATS(L2Y) - Non-conference games TEMPLE is 9-1 UNDER(L5Y) - Non-conference VS NON-BIG 5 2015-10-31 NOTRE DAME (24) at TEMPLE (20) +11 53.0 TEMPLE HOME DOG UNDER 2013-08-31 TEMPLE (6) at NOTRE DAME (28) -28 53.0 TEMPLE ROAD DOG UNDER (189) GEORGIA SOUTHERN [SU:5-7 ATS:3-9] AT (190) AUBURN (-35 54.5) [SU:8-5 ATS:9-4] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 7:30 PM on SECN - JORDAN-HARE STADIUM (AUBURN, AL) GA SOUTHERN 26.6 21 50-224 [4.4] 22-12-156 [7.1] 14.3 26.5 21 37-168 [4.5] 30-17-229 [7.8] 15.0 +1 +0.1 AUBURN (12) 31.2 22 50-271 [5.5] 22-14-169 [7.6] 14.1 17.1 19 36-133 [3.7] 36-21-229 [6.4] 21.2 +3 +14.1 18 AUBURN is 9-1-1 OVER(L5Y) - as favorite of more than 14 points THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
Football Weekly (191) APPALACHIAN ST [SU:10-3 ATS:7-6] AT (192) GEORGIA (-14 45.5) [SU:8-5 ATS:6-7] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 6:15 PM on ESPN - SANFORD STADIUM (ATHENS, GA) APPALACHIAN ST 29.2 22 44-250 [5.6] 26-16-179 [7.0] 14.7 17.8 18 32-126 [3.9] 34-20-204 [6.0] 18.5 +8 +11.4 GEORGIA (15) 24.5 20 41-191 [4.7] 30-16-193 [6.5] 15.7 24.0 16 36-144 [4.0] 26-15-184 [7.0] 13.7 +8 +0.5 GEORGIA is 18-3 OVER(L25G) at HOME - In September 2013-11-09 APPALACHIAN ST (6) at GEORGIA (45) -39.5 NL APPALACHIAN ST ROAD DOG (193) KENTUCKY (-10.5 61) [SU:7-6 ATS:7-6] AT (194) SOUTHERN MISS [SU:7-6 ATS:4-9] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 4:00 PM on CBSSN - ROBERTS STADIUM (HATTIESBURG, MS) KENTUCKY 30.0 20 43-234 [5.4] 24-13-186 [7.8] 14.0 31.3 23 44-228 [5.1] 27-16-206 [7.6] 13.9-7 -1.3 SOUTHERN MISS 32.8 24 42-175 [4.2] 37-22-298 [8.1] 14.4 29.5 15 33-150 [4.6] 24-13-175 [7.3] 11.0-17 +3.3 SOUTHERN MISS is 4-9 ATS(L2Y) - All Games 2016-09-03 SOUTHERN MISS (44) at KENTUCKY (35) -3 61.5 SOUTHERN MISS ROAD DOG OVER (195) HOUSTON (-10.5 51.5) [SU:9-4 ATS:5-7-1] AT (196) UTSA [SU:6-7 ATS:7-6] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 7:00 PM - ALAMO DOME (SAN ANTONIO, TX) HOUSTON 35.8 24 43-147 [3.4] 40-27-296 [7.4] 12.4 23.5 16 34-100 [2.9] 32-18-219 [6.8] 13.6-7 +12.3 UTSA 29.2 20 40-162 [4.0] 29-17-214 [7.3] 12.9 27.9 21 37-162 [4.3] 31-17-230 [7.3] 14.1 +3 +1.3 HOUSTON is 11-2-1 ATS(L5Y) - In September 2014-08-29 UTSA (27) at HOUSTON (7) -8.5 56.5 UTSA ROAD DOG UNDER 2013-09-28 HOUSTON (59) at UTSA (28) -3 62.5 HOUSTON ROAD DOG OVER (197) SOUTH CAROLINA [SU:6-7 ATS:6-6-1] VS (198) NC STATE (-6 50) [SU:7-6 ATS:9-4] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 3:00 PM on ESPN - BANK OF AMERICA STADIUM (CHARLOTTE, NC)[NEUT] SOUTH CAROLINA 20.8 19 37-134 [3.7] 31-19-213 [6.9] 16.7 26.5 23 42-202 [4.8] 31-19-209 [6.7] 15.5 +7-5.7 NC STATE 27.0 22 39-156 [4.0] 34-20-260 [7.7] 15.4 22.8 19 33-109 [3.3] 36-21-244 [6.8] 15.5 +1 +4.2 This southern showdown in Charlotte features two programs with rising fortunes with something to prove. South Carolina was 6-7 last season, which is remarkable considering they scored 24 or fewer points eight times. The Gamecocks did find a quarterback in Jake Bentley and they have nine other starters returning. Will Muschamp finds ways to assemble a defense and South Carolina has covered the number in four straight neutral site battles. Other than Clemson, nobody has more talent in the defensive line in the ACC than N.C. State. Put that together with QB Ryan Finley and the makings of a much improved offense and the Wolfpack grab your attention. Whatever defense takes control of the line scrimmage will be your winner. NC STATE is 10-3-1 ATS(L5Y) - In September SOUTH CAROLINA is 5-10 ATS(L5Y) - In September SOUTH CAROLINA is 10-2-2 UNDER(L3Y) - VS Non-ranked team 2009-09-03 SOUTH CAROLINA (7) at NC STATE (3) -5.5 48.0 SOUTH CAROLINA ROAD DOG UNDER 2008-08-28 NC STATE (0) at SOUTH CAROLINA (34) -14 43.5 SOUTH CAROLINA HOME FAV UNDER VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 19
AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly (201) MICHIGAN (-3.5 45) [SU:10-3 ATS:6-7] VS (202) FLORIDA [SU:9-4 ATS:5-7-1] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 3:30 PM on ABC - AT&T STADIUM (ARLINGTON, TX)[NEUT] MICHIGAN (11) 40.3 22 44-213 [4.8] 28-18-212 [7.4] 10.5 14.1 14 37-119 [3.2] 25-11-143 [5.6] 18.6 +7 +26.2 FLORIDA (17) 23.9 18 35-128 [3.7] 32-19-216 [6.8] 14.4 16.8 16 38-144 [3.8] 25-11-149 [5.9] 17.4 +2 +7.1 Some of the shine came off this matchup when Florida coach Jim McElwain suspended seven players for this encounter, including talented and troubled WR Antonio Callaway. That loss will not help Gators quarterbacks, as this team continues to search for an offensive identity. The Florida defense has new DC in Randy Shannon and he will attempt to mold a two-deep squad that is thin on playing time. Michigan s defense was also ravaged by players moving on and their DC Don Brown is trying to reload around one true starter back. The Wolverines will have to rely on offense until the defense gains experience and coming up with a ground attack could be the key with Florida 8-20 ATS when allowing 200 to 250 rushing yards. FLORIDA is 17-8 ATS(L25G) at NEUTRAL SITE - All Games MICHIGAN is 5-17-1 ATS(S2000) - VS lower ranked team MICHIGAN is 11-2 OVER(S2000) - VS AP top 25 2016-01-01 * MICHIGAN (41) at FLORIDA (7) +3.5 40.0 MICHIGAN xxxx FAV OVER 2008-01-01 * MICHIGAN (41) at FLORIDA (35) -10.5 61.0 MICHIGAN xxxx DOG OVER 2003-01-01 * MICHIGAN (38) at FLORIDA (30) +1.5 47.0 MICHIGAN xxxx FAV OVER All bowl games, Michigan is 3-0 SU & ATS vs. Florida since 03 OVER the total is 3-0 in the L3 games between Michigan & Florida (203) VANDERBILT (-4.5 58) [SU:6-7 ATS:7-6] AT (204) MIDDLE TENN ST [SU:8-5 ATS:5-6-2] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 8:00 PM on CBSSN - FLOYD STADIUM (MURFREESBORO, TN) VANDERBILT 23.0 19 38-164 [4.3] 30-16-191 [6.3] 15.4 24.0 20 35-164 [4.7] 34-21-245 [7.1] 17.0 +4-1.0 MIDDLE TENN ST 39.7 25 32-194 [6.0] 42-27-323 [7.6] 13.0 35.8 25 44-199 [4.5] 38-22-251 [6.6] 12.6-2 +3.9 VANDERBILT is 10-2 UNDER(L3Y) on ROAD - All Games 2016-09-10 MIDDLE TENN ST (24) at VANDERBILT (47) -2.5 50.5 VANDERBILT HOME FAV OVER 2015-10-03 VANDERBILT (17) at MIDDLE TENN ST (13) -2 49.5 VANDERBILT ROAD DOG UNDER 2005-10-01 MIDDLE TENN ST (17) at VANDERBILT (15) -14.5 43.5 MIDDLE TENN ST ROAD DOG UNDER 2002-10-12 MIDDLE TENN ST (21) at VANDERBILT (20) -6.5 53.5 MIDDLE TENN ST ROAD DOG UNDER 2001-08-30 MIDDLE TENN ST (37) at VANDERBILT (28) -7.5 NL MIDDLE TENN ST ROAD DOG Road teams/underdogs are on a 4-1 ATS run in L5 of VAN-MTSU series VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY SEASON PASS - $259 FULL SEASON The Tip Sheet Season Pass runs through Febraury 2018, so you ll be covered for the entire Regular Season and Playoffs. 20 $259 FULL SEASON VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM/WEEKLY-INSIDER THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
Football Weekly (205) FLORIDA ST [SU:10-3 ATS:8-4] VS (206) ALABAMA (-7 49.5) [SU:14-1 ATS:10-5] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 8:00 PM on ABC - MERCEDES-BENZ STADIUM (ATLANTA, GA)[NEUT] FLORIDA ST (3) 35.1 25 40-202 [5.1] 32-19-264 [8.2] 13.3 25.0 19 35-128 [3.6] 31-17-221 [7.1] 14.0 +3 +10.1 ALABAMA (1) 38.8 21 43-247 [5.8] 28-18-208 [7.5] 11.7 13.0 14 32-64 [2.0] 34-18-198 [5.8] 20.2 +10 +25.8 For all we know, this could be the first of two confrontations between these storied programs. Florida State has to develop playmakers for QB Deandre Francois and if that jells quickly, the Seminoles are going to be even better because the defense is well-stocked at all three levels. The way to beat Alabama is throwing the ball, thus, if Francois can deliver to open targets, the Noles can win. Say what you want, the Crimson Tide do not lose on what-ifs, the opponent has to do it on the field. To start the year, Nick Saban has more questions at a few positions and depth concerns. Even with this, Alabama is still favored by a touchdown and is 8-1 ATS away the first two weeks of the season. ALABAMA is 13-6 ATS(L3Y) - VS AP top 25 FLORIDA ST is 18-7 OVER(L25G) - As underdog ALABAMA is 9-2 OVER(L5Y) - VS AP top 25 2007-09-29 * FLORIDA ST (21) at ALABAMA (14) +1.5 43.0 FLORIDA ST xxxx FAV UNDER (207) TROY [SU:10-3 ATS:6-7] AT (208) BOISE ST (-11 62.5) [SU:10-3 ATS:3-10] SEPTEMBER 2, 2017 3:45 PM on ESPNU - ALBERTSONS STADIUM (BOISE, ID) TROY 33.7 23 37-169 [4.5] 38-24-260 [6.9] 12.7 22.1 19 36-120 [3.4] 37-20-246 [6.6] 16.6 +10 +11.6 BOISE ST 33.8 23 38-174 [4.6] 31-19-298 [9.6] 14.0 23.3 21 41-177 [4.3] 34-21-213 [6.3] 16.7-9 +10.5 BOISE ST is 9-3 UNDER(L3Y) at HOME - All Games (209) WEST VIRGINIA [SU:10-3 ATS:5-7-1] VS (210) VIRGINIA TECH (-5 52) [SU:10-4 ATS:8-6] SEPTEMBER 3, 2017 7:30 PM on ABC - FEDEX FIELD (LANDOVER, MD)[NEUT] WEST VIRGINIA (22) 31.2 24 44-228 [5.2] 31-19-257 [8.2] 15.5 24.0 22 40-168 [4.2] 37-21-258 [7.0] 17.8 +4 +7.2 VIRGINIA TECH (21) 35.0 24 46-183 [4.0] 32-20-262 [8.2] 12.7 22.8 17 37-140 [3.8] 31-15-200 [6.5] 14.9-1 +12.2 Once former Big East partners, this is the first contest between these teams since 2005. West Virginia lost several starting offensive skill position players, yet the feeling around Morgantown is the offense might be in better, since Florida transfer Will Grier has picked up how to run Dana Holgorsen offense extremely well. The Mountaineers back seven is the strength of the defense, with some real questions about the D-Line. With this conflict at neutral site in Maryland, the Teers are 6-19 ATS at these venues. Virginia Tech s high-powered passing offense from 2016 has to hit the reboot with a new cast. While this is reconstructed, Bud Foster s defense should be among the best in the ACC, if the young defensive line comes together swiftly. VIRGINIA TECH is 36-22-1 ATS(S2000) - VS AP top 25 WEST VIRGINIA is 5-15 ATS(S2000) at NEUTRAL SITE - Non-conference games VIRGINIA TECH is 11-4-1 OVER(L5Y) - Non-conference games 2005-10-01 VIRGINIA TECH (34) at WEST VIRGINIA (17) +10.5 42.5 VIRGINIA TECH ROAD FAV OVER 2004-10-02 WEST VIRGINIA (13) at VIRGINIA TECH (19) -3.5 48.0 VIRGINIA TECH HOME FAV UNDER 2003-10-22 VIRGINIA TECH (7) at WEST VIRGINIA (28) +14 52.0 WEST VIRGINIA HOME DOG UNDER 2002-11-20 WEST VIRGINIA (21) at VIRGINIA TECH (18) -7.5 51.0 WEST VIRGINIA ROAD DOG UNDER 2001-10-06 VIRGINIA TECH (35) at WEST VIRGINIA (0) +17.5 52.0 VIRGINIA TECH ROAD FAV UNDER Four of the L5 games in the WVU-VT series have gone UNDER the total 21 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly (211) TEXAS A&M [SU:8-5 ATS:4-9] AT (212) UCLA (-4.5 55.5) [SU:4-8 ATS:4-7-1] SEPTEMBER 3, 2017 7:30 PM on FOX - ROSE BOWL (PASADENA, CA) TEXAS A&M 34.8 22 37-212 [5.7] 36-20-255 [7.1] 13.4 24.5 24 44-192 [4.4] 36-21-250 [7.0] 18.0 +3 +10.3 UCLA 24.9 20 29-84 [2.9] 41-23-296 [7.2] 15.3 27.5 22 42-172 [4.1] 37-20-210 [5.7] 13.9-2 -2.6 If this were a bowl game, the sponsor would be Nordstrom s Last Chance outlet stores, because this where coaches Kevin Sumlin and Jim Mora are with their respective schools. Sumlin and Texas A&M probably need a 10-win season for him to keep his job and that could a real challenge considering the division that play in the SEC and that fact they are on fourth different starting QB in four years. Aggies are a sorry 15-35 ATS as road underdogs. After a 4-8 downer year, Mora s UCLA bunch needs to be playing USC for Pac-12 South title in late November or he has job issues. At least he has a quarterback in Josh Rosen, who needs to talk less and play better. Big Game! UCLA is 10-5-1 ATS(L5Y) - as favorite of 7 or less points TEXAS A&M is 2-9 ATS(L5Y) - AS underdog of 7 or less points TEXAS A&M is 10-5 UNDER(L3Y) - VS Non-ranked team 2016-09-03 UCLA (24) at TEXAS A&M (31) -4.5 55.5 TEXAS A&M HOME FAV UNDER (213) TENNESSEE (-4 56) [SU:9-4 ATS:6-7] VS (214) GEORGIA TECH [SU:9-4 ATS:7-4-1] SEPTEMBER 4, 2017 8:00 PM on ESPN - MERCEDES-BENZ STADIUM (ATLANTA, GA)[NEUT] TENNESSEE (25) 36.4 22 40-205 [5.2] 29-18-238 [8.2] 12.2 28.8 23 44-221 [5.0] 33-18-228 [6.9] 15.6-2 +7.6 GEORGIA TECH 28.2 18 47-255 [5.5] 12-6-132 [10.7] 13.7 24.5 22 36-172 [4.7] 33-21-232 [6.9] 16.5 +4 +3.7 After a couple of years of heavy expectations, the volume has been lowered in Knoxville, which might not bode well for coach Butch Jones. The defense was a disaster in every way a year ago and when you face an option team like Georgia Tech, if the Vols defenders do not play assignment football, they are in trouble in Atlanta. After a crummy 2015 campaign, the Yellow Jackets bounced back at 9-4 and should be a factor in the ACC Coastal. Coach Paul Johnson has to settle on QB to run the option and handing the ball to RB Dedrick Mills will always be a smart choice. The Jackets will enter with defensive concerns, yet are 24-8 ATS the first two weeks of the season. GEORGIA TECH is 15-8-1 ATS(L25G) - In September TENNESSEE is 9-14-2 ATS(L25G) - In September TENNESSEE is 16-5-1 OVER(L25G) - In September VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY SEASON PASS - $259 FULL SEASON The Tip Sheet Season Pass runs through Febraury 2018, so you ll be covered for the entire Regular Season and Playoffs. 22 $259 FULL SEASON VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM/WEEKLY-INSIDER THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION
Football Weekly NEW CFB HEAD COACHES - WHAT IT MEANS FOR BETTORS The annual right of college football coaches being removed and somebody with a fresh approach taking their place occurred last winter and a whole new group is taking over on the coaching carousel. For many, it is the next step in what they perceived their career path to height of their profession, only to be later shown the exit sign above the door, unless they are Bob Stoops and can leave on their own terms. For the bottom line, this is not a good wager either way and smart football bettors will look the coaches with a track record or those who could be overmatched based on the school s history. WHAT NEW COACHES COULD SINK OR SWIM IN FIRST YEAR Tom Herman jumps into the biggest boiling pot in Texas. This energetic, focused man has found his dream job and it has come rather quickly, with only two years at Houston, though he was an assistant before this. While we believe ultimately he s the right man for the job, expectations are incredibly high in Austin this season. Outlook - Swim Willie Taggert has won everywhere, so why would he not at Oregon? His first two jobs are to restore order and discipline, something that has been sorely lacking the past two years and upgrade the recruiting, which has fallen off. Outlook - Swim For others, it is a lateral move, having been fired someplace else and thankful that somebody still thinks enough of them to get another chance, even if the locker room is not as big, the number of assistants is fewer and the paycheck doesn t have as many zeros, they are still part of big time college football and they can make young men hopefully better football players. From the wagering perspective, two basic elements are in play. Either the new coach is taking over a losing team, and the program needs to be rebuilt on some level, or the school, though successful on the gridiron, did not have financial resources to accommodate the coach who was ready and able to move up the coaching ladder. With this in mind, can the new guy quickly turn the football program around or maintain the status quo if already successful. Let s look at the numbers and see what they tell us. BETTING NUMBERS ON NEW HEAD COACHES In assembling this part of the article, we went back three years. You will notice immediately the numbers are smaller with each year looking back. The reason for this is we focused on coach that are still at the same school, not those that were rather abruptly canned or swiftly moved on for the next gig. The last three head coaches at Western Kentucky have been Willie Taggert, Bobby Petrino and Jeff Brohm. All have been successful and gone on to bigger jobs. With Mike Sanford taking over, expect the tradition to continue as he is one the bright young studs, only 35 years old. Outlook - Swim On occasion, retreads work in the perfect situations, but it is not real often or only for a short period of time. This year s contingent includes Randy Edsall in a second tour of duty at Connecticut, Butch Davis (FIU), Jeff Tedford (Fresno State) and Lane Kiffin (FAU). The latter, the former Raiders, Tennessee and USC head man likely already has his resume prepared for the first bigger job opening. Outlook - Sink Matt Ruhle took a real gamble on going to Baylor from Temple. He worked miracles with the Owls and if Baylor can put the immediate past behind, than somehow the resources are in play. What nobody knows is what is still to come from the NCAA. Outlook - Treading Let s face it, Charley Strong and Texas were never the right fit for each other. Strong needs to be at a school where winning matters, but does not have the hounds at the doorstep if media reports say the team had a bad practice. With a loaded squad in South Florida, Strong should flourish and it would help by winning the AAC as expected. Outlook - Swim Here are our findings: 2016-150-191 SU and 157-180-4 ATS 2015-81-96 SU and 87-90 ATS 2014-55-83 SU and 69-69 ATS It certainly is not surprising to see a losing record for each year, since, for the most part these teams head coaches took over for needed an upgrade to begin with. When you breakdown the against spread figures from the sportsbooks, these teams not surprisingly failed to meet market expectations, beating the oddsmakers release and adjustments 48 percent of the time. Another coach we see doing well is P.J. Fleck at Minnesota. He is a ferocious recruiter and exceptional organizer. While the Golden Gophers have a ways to go to reach the upper rung in the Big Ten, give Fleck two maybe three classes of his guys and Minnesota is truly competing in the West Division of this conference. Outlook - Swim Nevada has essentially had one winning coach since 1992 and that was Chris Ault on two separate occasions. Jay Norvell learned from some of the best, yet his recent record as an offensive coordinator at UCLA, Oklahoma and Texas is spotty at best. Outlook - Sink VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION 23
AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 3 Football Weekly 24 FOOTBALL LINE MOVES Welcome back to another edition of Line Moves, which continues to be a must read for football bettors looking to see where the early action is. Last year we had our best record ever making these early selections in college and pro football. In college football we were 75-48 ATS, 60.9% overall and in the NFL 51-38 ATS, 57.3%. CFB FRIDAY - (145) NAVY AT (146) FLORIDA ATLANTIC 8:00 ET ESPNU Make no mistake, Navy is the better team, yet they have been taken down from -14.5 to -12.5. Two aspects come into play for this occurrence. It starts with Navy having its least experienced quarterback returning in five years and while the option offense is all the Midshipmen utilize, there is a learning curve against real opponents. Florida Atlantic has Lane Kiffin as coach, 17 starters back and the excitement of home opener should have the Owls flying around. Nonetheless, Navy is a stellar 77-39 ATS on the road. Our View- Lean Navy covers CFB FRIDAY - (149) BOSTON COLLEGE AT (150) NORTH. ILLINOIS 9:30 ET CBSSN It has been awhile since Boston College had a consistent offense, scoring under 21 points a game in four of the past six seasons. There is not much reason to think this year will be any different and the Eagles will again rely on the defense. After years of quality college quarterbacks at Northern Illinois, the pipeline has gone dry and going up this B.C. defense will be no treat for these Huskies. An already low total of 49.5 was dropped to 46 and B.C. is 8-1 UNDER as a favorite the last two seasons. Our View- Lean Under CFB SATURDAY - (153) BOWLING GREEN AT (154) MICHIGAN STATE 12:00 ET ESPNU It was quite a precipitous fall Michigan State had last year to 3-9 and football bettors are not sure the Spartans rebound quickly. Everyone assumes Sparty will be better, however, the days of being a Rose Bowl contender are two years off at least and they actually tumbled as favorite from -20 to -18 against Bowling Green, who went from MAC champions to 4-8 in 2016. Michigan State is brutal 4-14 ATS as favorites the last couple years and they might struggle to cover this home opener. Our View- Lean Bowling Green covers CFB SATURDAY - (175) UTEP AT (176) OKLAHOMA 3:30 ET FOX Nobody saw this coming, as for the first time since 1999, Bob Stoops will not be roaming the Oklahoma sidelines. Enter Lincoln Riley to take the No.1 headset and he is expected to continue what Stoops built and make himself a part of the Oklahoma football tradition. For this contest, the total really took a tumble, falling from 66 to 62. Nobody is doubting Baker Mayfield and Sooners offense will pile up the points, but will the offensively challenged UTEP Miners be able to dig into the end zone? Boomer Sooner, baby! Our View- Play Over CFB SATURDAY - (179) SOUTH ALABAMA AT (180) MISSISSIPPI 7:30 ET ESPNU No doubt Ole Miss being lowered from -27 to -24 is questions about where the football program is after the dismissal of head coach Hugh Freeze. One cannot argue about the logic, though at least the Rebels will have had a lot of time to mentally prepare for this. Shea Patterson looks like the next excellent quarterback to play for Mississippi, but will he stay past this season with sanctions coming? South Alabama upset Miss. State in last year s opener, yet, cannot see that happening again. Tough call. Our View- Lean South Alabama covers CFB SATURDAY - (181) WEST. MICHIGAN AT (182) USC 5:15 ET PAC-12N One year too late for Western Michigan to take on USC. The Broncos were unbeaten before losing to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl, where they finally met their match. With P.J. Fleck gone as coach and key personnel losses, bettors look at a loaded USC squad and bumped up the Men of Troy from -23.5 to -27. If the Broncos are to compete, they have to move the ball, eat up the clock and generate scores in half their drives. If not, the big play offense of USC carves them up. Our View- Lean USC covers CFB SATURDAY - (195) HOUSTON AT (196) UT-SAN ANTONIO 7:00 ET LOCAL TV The loss of coach Tom Herman and QB Greg Ward Jr., takes Houston off the favorite role in the AAC. Major Applewhite takes over as coach and he has to develop a running game and hope transfer Kyle Allen is ready to be a solid signal caller. One year removed from a 3-9 campaign, UTSA was 6-6 and lost a tight game in their first-ever bowl game in New Mexico. With several key returnees and being at home, the Roadrunners are down two points to +12.5. This could be intriguing. Our View- Lean UT-San Antonio covers CFB SUNDAY - (211) TEXAS A&M AT (212) UCLA 7:30 ET FOX Last year s Aggies 31-24 victory was just under the closing total of 55.5. Now playing in Pasadena, the total has dipped from 58 to that same 55.5 number. Not being sold on either team s defensive ability and being physical enough, I will forecast this contest to end right around 60 points, with UCLA QB Josh Rosen having a very large day against Texas A&M defense. Our View- Play Over THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION