THE GREEN SHEET Full-Card Analysis and Selections John M. Gaver III www.johngaver.com Churchill Downs: Spring Meet 2017 Seventh Day: Thursday, May 11, 2017 Post Time: 5:00 P.M. Eastern Churchill Meet Stats To Date: 68-16-12-9 24% winners; 54% in the money Note: Selections are made in order, first through fourth RACE ONE The bay colt PROUD TO LIVE FREE was served up in his first start off the claim for trainer Brad Cox, but the son of Caleb s Posse hooked a useful horse in The Gipper in that affair that went in a 1:10 4/5, pretty quick considering the class level, and he takes a marked class drop in this spot in for a dime. He should get a good trip stalking projected pacesetter CONQUEST SKEDADDLE, whop looks to be a shade quicker on paper, and he is bred to handle an anticipated off track; playable on the drop. LITTLE BIT IRISH is the lone entrant in the field to have previously hit the board over a muddy, sealed racetrack and with an above average chance of rain this afternoon in Louisville prior to the twilight post, there s a distinct possibility that this card will be contested in sloppy conditions. This bay gelding didn t run poorly in his last start, where he pressed a quick pace and weakened in the stretch facing tougher rivals, and he has improved since switching barns and getting blinkers three starts back; contender. CONQUEST SKEDADDLE will make his first start for the Matt Shirer barn on the drop in this spot, and his outfit has made the most out of limited opportunities in 2017. Scat Daddy gelding looks to be a tick quicker on paper than PROUD TO LIVE FREE and LITTLE BIT IRISH and, as such, figures to be the controlling speed from the opening bell, and he will appreciate turning back to a six-furlong sprint in this spot. On the down side, he couldn t break his maiden at Will Rogers Downs and the best prior effort of his career was in a nine-furlong route race on a synthetic surface at Woodbine. He figures to set a pressured pace; hangs around for a minor award with a top try. The Texas-bred HOOROO will make his debut for a 1
$10K tag, not an overly encouraging sign, but he has fairly sharp public gate works and will make the debut run with Lasix for veteran trainer Randy Morse. The 26-day gap between his last two public breezes isn t encouraging, but he figures to provide value on the tote board and there are no world-beaters in here; worth a look in the paddock and post parade. SELECTIONS: 3-4-2-6 RACE TWO LULLINGSTONE creeps in for a tag for the first time for trainer John Hancock, whose barn is coming off an excellent Keeneland meet with its juvenile stock, and this bay filly split a field of eight on debut in Lexington two weeks ago, where she ran bravely to launch a mild rally from off the pace despite getting squeezed and shuffled back at the start. She ll get blinkers for the first time, has the benefit of a prior race under her belt and will likely improve making just her second career start. The mud is the x- factor, but it will be for all of these babies; major player. THERIGHTTOBEARARMS comes out of a slower race at Keeneland than the top choice, but the chestnut daughter of Fast Bullet broke slow and was rushed into an honest pace then had little left to offer in the lane. She likely got a lot out of that race two weeks ago and is another that will be offered up for tag for the first time. She will likely move forward in just her second career start; contender. DIVORCE s public work tab has a couple of significant gaps, but the daughter of Power Broker has a few quick moves over the traditionally deep and slow surface at Lexington s The Thoroughbred Center. She s the recipient of a wide post draw but will make her career debut on the East Coast for owner Vann Belvoir a Californiabased trainer and trainer Tracey Young is a capable, hands-on horseman; demands your attention in the paddock and post parade. ANNA KATE had the misfortune of hooking a nice filly in Buy Sell Hold in her career debut at Keeneland, and that rival came out of that race to win the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes facing open company on Derby Week at Churchill. Divine Park filly gets blinkers for the first time, exits a quick race and dips in for a $50K tag. She has plenty of upside, and the hood may help her be more focused at the gate, as she broke flat-footed in her first start; improvement expected. SELECTIONS: 8-2-9-4 RACE THREE The six-year-old CHEYENNE BLUES will make her first start off the claim for trainer J.R. Caldwell in this heat and will make a lateral move in class from the conditioned $7,500 claiming ranks in Hot Springs into this open affair for a nickel this evening. Consistent Oklahoma-bred has placed in 21- of-36 lifetime starts, was competitive against honest starter allowance 2
company in Hot Springs two starts back, and won his last star by open lengths the last time he was seen under the Twin Spires. He ll turn back to a one-turn mile trip, but he s at his best going eight-furlongs and while he has never won on an off track, he has been second or third in five-of-six lifetime outings in the mud. He responds to jockey Didiel Osorio s handling; rates top billing. VANILLA SCORE is an honest mare that has placed in 14- of-26 lifetime starts, and she will get some class relief dropping from open $16K company into this open $5,000 affair in this spot for veteran conditioner Ted Lucas. Five-year-old probably needed her last start off a near three-month layoff and was competitive for a quarter this winter at Turfway on Polytrack. She will be tighter this go-around, has solid dirt form and is at his best at an eight-furlong trip. She has had some gate issues in her past two starts that compromised her chances but has never been in this cheap. She can handle an off track; threat if she breaks. YOOOU DEN has retained dull from while descending in class for trainer Chris Richard, but she s another on the drop, and a repeat effort her race four starts back in Hot Springs facing open $16K types would make her tough to handle in this heat. On the down side, she s winless in five starts this year after going four-for-13 in 2016, and her best recent form is at Remington Park. She does like the mud, however, and is another that will appreciate the softer company; the class drop makes her a contender. Like YOOOU DEN, EUFAULA s 2017 form has been suspect after a solid 2016 campaign, as the five-year-old mare knocked out six-of-eight races last year in Philly but has ben well beaten in each start since she was claimed for a dime on New Year s Day. Bay mare continues to drop in class looking for form reversal and has finished in the money in four-of-five lifetime starts on off racetracks. Her last start for a nickel at Oaklawn Park doesn t inspire much confidence; on the fringes. SELECTIONS: 7-8-2-3 RACE FOUR QUIET SCORE is the controlling speed in a race without a lot of frontrunning types signed on always a good angle and she has never been in this cheap. Even the Score filly ran a big race off an extended layoff in her most recent start in Lexington when returning to a conventional dirt surface, and she will likely improve upon that effort in this heat making the second start of her current form cycle. This filly has enough natural early lick that jockey Julie Burke should be able to get over and save some ground before the clubhouse turn, and I like that her mount was game on the drop in her last start; choice. BUDGET CUT returns to the races on the drop off a brief freshening for trainer Tom Amoss, and the daughter of Super Saver ran well in her last start off a layoff. She has never been worse than second at Churchill Downs, rallied from off the pace in her only previous start on an off track, and I like the rider change to Corey Lanerie. On the down side, she has been the beaten chalk in four of her past 3
five starts and hasn t been able to get that elusive second win despite dropping in class. She has a penchant for place money, her past money finishes at Churchill have been in one-turn races and she stretches out a sixteenth in this spot to a distance at which she s unproven; figures for part, taking a stand against for top honors. LADY AMERICA likely needed her last start off a five-month layoff, and she hooked a next-out winner in that affair at Tampa Bay Downs. She broke her maiden versus maiden allowance company in Chicago last fall, and her two-turn dirt form for trainer Eoin Harty is pretty solid. She has a license to improve in her second start off a layoff, drops in class, and if one draws a line through her lone grass start a surface she doesn t care for one feels better about her chances in this heat; some things to like. NORTH OF EDEN hasn t been seen at the races in nearly three months, but she is a consistent bay filly that has placed in nine-of-15 lifetime starts and ran well in her last dirt start at Churchill Downs, albeit against lesser stock. She has finished in the money in eight of her past 12 races and is capable of running a winning race off a layoff; using in exotic wagers. SELECTIONS: 8-6-7-4 RACE FIVE The bay Blame gelding GUILTY STREAK looks poised to break his maiden in career start 13, as the five-year-old has been competitive in his past three starts against tougher adversaries and has never been in this cheap for trainer Helen Pitts. He s clearly better on Polytrack and turf, but he may like an off main track and the class relief certainly works in his favor. He gets a positive rider change to Corey Lanerie, and the wide post draw isn t detrimental coming out of the chute; rates top billing. REYDELL improved when dropping in for a tag in his most recent outing at Oaklawn Park for trainer Ron Moquett, and the gray continues to descend in class in this spot. I like that he turns back to this one-turn mile affair with a twoturn mile race under his belt, and he s eligible for improvement making the third start of his current form cycle; threat. CHILL PHIL drops in class, turns back in distance, gets a break in weights with the apprentice named to ride, and has faced next-out winners in both his previous starts for trainer Joe Sharp. He ll wear blinkers for this first time this evening; further improvement is expected. TEENERTOWN PRINCE s form was improving before he was stooped on and has past experience at Churchill Downs with this one-turn mile trip. He takes a lateral move in class from maiden $12,500 company at Tampa to this maiden $10,000 spot; tab for a minor award. SELECTIONS: 10-8-4-7 4
RACE SIX MORE THAN SHIRL is a better horse on turf, however he gave a decent account of himself versus $7,500 starter allowance foes in his last start at Keeneland, where he launched an off-the-pace bid when stepping up in class and returning to the main track only to be one-paced in the stretch. Bay gelding drops in class off that effort, and his lone previous win on the main track was in Louisville last fall, where he got up in the shadow of the wire at a six and a half furlong trip facing conditioned $16K down to $14K claiming stock; contends on the drop. Like the top choice, JIVE DADDY is a better horse on the weeds, and he gets wheeled back off 12 days rest while dropping in class off a subpar effort facing tougher rivals on the main track at Churchill. Fleet-footed son of Scat Daddy looks to be shade quicker on paper than the other projected front runners in this this heat GOODS GONE WEST and HIGHROLLER DAVE and he does own a past main track win over a sloppy, sealed racetrack facing conditioned claiming rivals for a dime in South Florida; wire job candidate on the class descent. ARSENALOFDEMOCRACY made short work of lesser rivals in Indiana 22 days ago off a brief freshening, and he s eligible to move forward off that effort in his second start off a layoff for the high-percentage Tom Amoss barn. Florida-bred s best past form has been in Minnesota, where he reeled off four consecutive wins in the summer of 2015, and he hasn t had his picture taken in well over a year. The frequent layoff lines aren t a positive sign; seems destined for a minor award. The eight-year-old campaigner HIGHROLLER DAVE will make his first start off the claim in this spot for trainer Eric Foster, whose barn has made the most of limited engagements in 2017, and the veteran gelding loves Churchill Downs, having won fourof-nine lifetime starts in Louisville. His best recent form has come against lesser adversaries on Polytrack at Turfway, but he s 10-1 on the morning line and has finished in the money in four of his past six starts; can t eliminate with confidence based on his affinity for the local surroundings. SELECTIONS: 2-3-4-9 RACE SEVEN DECENT hasn t been seen at the races in a tick over five months, however this War Front gelding runs well fresh, and he likes five panels on turf. Negatives include his affinity for minor awards, as he s a free-wheeling sort that has a propensity to quit after making the pace and has been beaten the past seven times he has gone to the post favored. Like always, he will have to deal with a field peppered with front-running types in this turf sprint, but he has been training with regularity for the public the past 30 days, has placed in 10-of-13 lifetime starts and, by and large, he has been competitive against tougher company than he will face in this spot; choice. IRON MANE was in a little over his head in the $100K Skidmore Stakes in his last start on turf, and he broke his maiden with ease in Indiana against a good field in his only prior appearance on grass going five furlongs. He s 5
another that returns to the races off an extended layoff, but he will love the surface change back to turf, and he figures to get a good trip stalking the pace, especially if he switches off early and finishes, which is a possibility as the blinkers come off today. He sports a gap-free public work tab since late March for the high-percentage Wesley Ward barn; contender. BOOTLEGGIN will be tighter in his second start off a lengthy layoff, and he gets wheeled back off three weeks rest in this spot by trainer Brian Williamson. Son of Street Boss has a past turf win to his credit, and he ran well against money since allowance foes at Hawthorne in his most recent start and returns to the a other than ranks in this heat. He s 15-1 on the morning line and there is plenty of early pace assembled in this spot to set up his late kick; likely overlay. OSO READY is a fast son of More Than Ready that figured to need his last start his first for trainer Ian Wilkes off a five-month layoff, and he will return to the races as a gelding for the first time this evening. He has some talent, as he beat eventual multiple stakes winner Guest Suite in his debut run and has hooked the likes of honest horses such as Bound for Nowhere, Jersey Street and Reckling in the past; tighter this time. SELECTIONS: 6-4-9-2 RACE EIGHT The chestnut PROPER DECORUM has managed to finish fifth in three straight races since returning from a near 16-month layoff back in January in Hot Springs, but he figures to get an uncontested early lead on the drop in a race that doesn t have a lot of front-running types assembled. Sidney s Candy gelding has shown minor improvement with blinkers and continues to drop in class in this spot looking to graduate for trainer Donnie Von Hemel. He sports a gap-free public work tab since his last start and is sitting on a bullet five-furlong breeze locally in 1:00 1/5 nine days ago; choice, gate-to-wire. BIG COMMISSION overcame an awkward start two starts back to finish two lengths and change behind a next-out winner in his first start for trainer Steve Asmussen, and he drops in class in this spot. Well-bred son of Mineshaft has a license to improve in his second start off the shelf, and he gets reunited with jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. in this affair; contender. START A WAR hasn t shown much in a pair of starts for trainer Conor Murphy, but the bay gelding takes a steep class drop in this spot looking for a reversal of form. I like that he turns back in distance to this seven-furlong trip, and he has never been in this cheap. He s 10-1 on the morning line; overlay material. BENEDICTION will make his first start for trainer Matt Shirer in this spot, who promptly drops this gelded son of Pulpit in class and puts the blinkers back on his charge. He turns back in distance and gets and aggressive finishing rider in Shaun Bridgmohan; on the fringes. SELECTIONS: 8-5-10-11 6
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