Assessing salmon vulnerability to climate change Tim Beechie NW Fisheries Science Center Alisa Wade-Wilcox University of California, Santa Barbara
The big question Will climate change negate salmon restoration efforts? Recovery plans in place Millions of dollars will be spent Should we alter habitat restoration plans to accommodate climate change?
Outline Predicted climate change effects Approach to vulnerability assessment Vulnerability results (steelhead example)
Predicting climate change effects Global climate simulations Downscaling & bias correction ½ to 2 resolution (50-250 km) 2 emissions scenarios 10 climate models 1/16-1/8 (6-12 km) Base flow & runoff VIC hydrologic model Air temperature & precipitation Daily stream flow & temperature
Model uncertainty A2 Emissions scenario: A1B Climate model: CGCM3.1(T47) B1 Scott Doney, Woods Hole Oceanographic institute
Predicted change in low flow Change in lowest monthly flow between 1980s and 2080s Banff >10% increase -10% to +10% 10-35% decrease 35-75% decrease 35-75% Decrease Seattle Portland Boise Predicted change in lowest monthly flow Data source: http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/report/
Predicted change in low flow Change in lowest monthly flow between 1980s and 2080s Banff >10% increase -10% to +10% 10-35% decrease 35-75% decrease 10-35% Decrease Seattle Portland Boise Predicted change in lowest monthly flow Data source: http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/report/
Predicted change in low flow Change in lowest monthly flow between 1980s and 2080s Banff >10% increase -10% to +10% 10-35% decrease 35-75% decrease >10% Increase Seattle Portland Boise Predicted change in lowest monthly flow Data source: http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/report/
Predicted change in low flow Change in lowest monthly flow between 1980s and 2080s Banff >10% increase -10% to +10% 10-35% decrease 35-75% decrease No change Seattle Portland Boise Predicted change in lowest monthly flow Data source: http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/report/
Summer rearing sensitivity <10 C 10-14 C 14-18 C Below threshold 18-22 C Near threshold 22-26 C 26-30 C >30 C Above threshold
Predicted change in high flow Change in flow between 1980s and 2080s Banff >10% decrease -10% to +10% 10-50% increase 50-100% increase Seattle Portland Boise Data source: http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/report/
Predicted change in high flow timing 1970-1999 2070-2099 Banff May-June Banff May-June Seattle Seattle Portland Dec-Jan Boise Portland Dec-Jan Boise Data source: http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/report/
Salmon vulnerability to climate change Vulnerability Population status Other stressors Conceptual basis: Existing stresses reduce salmon s ability to respond to climate change Climate change
What does that mean for salmon? Sep Dec Mar Jun Temp Low flow Peak flow Spring melt
What does that mean for salmon? Sep Dec Mar Jun Spawn Emerge Smolt Ocean-type Chinook salmon Ocean Temp Low flow Peak flow Spring melt
What does that mean for salmon? Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Spawn Emerge Smolt Ocean-type Chinook salmon Ocean Temp Low flow Peak flow Spring melt Temp Low flow Peak flow Spring melt
What does that mean for salmon? Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Spawn Emerge Smolt Ocean-type Cinook salmon Chinook salmon Ocean Stream-type Chinook salmon Spawn Emerge Rearing Smolt Ocean Temp Low flow Peak flow Spring melt Temp Low flow Peak flow Spring melt
Wade et al. in review Vulnerability patterns
Steelhead vulnerability patterns Habitat stress Stock status stress Wade et al. in review
Steelhead vulnerability patterns Future temperature stress (2040s) Future flow stress (2040s) Wade et al. in review
Steelhead vulnerability patterns Low temperature or flow vulnerability Steelhead vulnerability (2040s) High flow vulnerability High temperature vulnerability High temperature & flow vulnerability Wade et al. in review
Flow regime and Chinook life history Stream-type Chinook Snowmelt Transitional Ocean-type Chinook Rainfall J F M A M J J A S O N D Beechie et al. 2006
Flow regime and Chinook life history 1970-1999 Banff 2070-2099 Banff Snowmelt Snowmelt Seattle Transitional Seattle Portland Portland Transitional Boise Boise Rainfall Rainfall Data source: http://www.hydro.washington.edu/2860/report/
Summary Climate effects vary across the region Vulnerability is a function of Stock status Habitat stress Climate stresses Vulnerability (for steelhead) greatest in Willamette and interior Columbia basin