Regional Economic Conditions Jason Bram, Research Officer Community Advisory Group Meeting June 27, 2017 The views expressed here are those of the presenter and do not necessarily represent those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
Private-Sector Job Trends Year-Over-Year Percent Change as of May 2017 WA MT ND ME CA OR NV ID UT WY CO SD NE KS MN IA MO WI IL MI OH IN KY WV PA VA NY VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD AZ NM OK AR TN SC NC MS AL GA AK TX LA FL HI PR Down Flat Up to 1.25% Up 1.25% to 2% Up More Than 2% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 1
Current Economic Conditions FRBNY Business Surveys, Current Conditions 60 Diffusion Index 40 20 Empire State Manufacturing Survey 0 Jun -20-40 Business Leaders Survey (service sector) -60 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 2
Unemployment Rates Seasonally Adjusted 12 Percent 10 New York City New Jersey 8 6 United States 4 New York State May 2 0 1990 Shading indicates NBER recession 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 3
Labor Force Participation Seasonally Adjusted 70 Percent 65 New Jersey New York State May United States 60 New York City 55 1990 Shading indicates NBER recession 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 4
Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index 120 Index (Dec2007=100) 116 112 108 May 104 New York City 100 United States 96 92 New York Puerto Rico New Jersey 88 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 5
Dutchess- Putnam Recent Job Growth in the Region Percent Change from 2016 to 2017, Year-to-Date (Jan-May) Strong Growth Moderate Growth Modest Growth Little Change Declining Watertown North Country Glens Falls Utica Buffalo Rochester Syracuse Albany Ithaca Elmira Binghamton Kingston Puerto Rico U.S. Virgin Islands Orange- Rockland- Westchester Bergen- Hudson- Passaic Newark Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody s Economy.com. Middlesex Monmouth Ocean NYC 6
Private-Sector Employment Seasonally Adjusted Index 120 116 Index (Dec2007=100) New York City 112 108 104 100 96 Long Island U.S. Orange-Rockland Westchester Fairfield May 92 88 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Moody's Economy.com. 7
NYC Securities Employment Seasonally Adjusted Levels 270 Thousands Shading indicates time between securities peak and trough Thousands 4,250 240 4,000 210 180 Total Employment Minus Securities (right axis) Securities Employment (left axis) May 3,750 3,500 150 3,250 120 3,000 90 2,750 60 2,500 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's Economy.com, and FRBNY calculations. 8
NYC Tech Employment in Select Industries Number of Payroll Jobs, 2007 and 2015 Scientific R & D Services 15,509 13,174 2015 2007 Computer Systems Design & Related 39,706 62,556 Internet Pub, Web Search Portals Etc. ISPs; Search Portals; Data Processing Software Publishers Electronic Shopping Computer Manufacturing 4,444 7,746 5,382 5,412 1,507 10,508 4,568 4,028 3,272 28,496 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and FRBNY Staff Calculations. 9
Trends in NYC Tech Employment Employment Levels in Thousands 150 Thousands Jun 125 100 NYC Tech 75 50 Manhattan Tech 25 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (QCEW) and FRBNY Staff Calculations. 10
Industry s Concentration on Long Island, 2016 Long Island Industry Specialization Employment Change, Location Quotient, and Sector Size Transit & Ground Passenger Transport Publishing Information Computer & Electronic Mfg Finance & Insurance Construction Real Estate Non-store Retailers Arts, Ent & Rec Chemical Mfg Ambulatory Health Care Personal & Laundry Restaurants & Bars Hospitals Social Assistance Transportation Equipment Mfg Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting Bubble Size Represents Number of Employees in 2016-50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Percent Change in Long Island Employment: 2006-2016 Source: New York State Department of Labor, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). 11
Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted 160 Index (Mar2006=100) 140 Kings 120 Manhattan 100 Queens Nassau Apr 80 Suffolk 60 2006 2007 2008 2009 Shading indicates NBER recession United States 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). 12
Home Prices CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted 130 Index (Mar2006=100) 120 110 Buffalo Upstate NY 100 Rochester Albany Apr 90 80 70 United States Shading indicates NBER recession 60 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales). 13
Regional Recap New York City has been the leader in job growth in the region. Areas adjacent to NYC have also seen fairly strong growth. Fairfield County (CT) and parts of northern NJ have lagged. The securities industry has typically driven the NYC economy, but not this time; tech has picked up some of the slack. Manufacturers are now quite upbeat about the economy, while service-sector firms are more subdued. Housing markets have been fairly robust in New York City and parts of upstate New York. 14