Benjamin Solak of NDT Scouting presents Contextualized Quarterbacking a charting and data-precipitating endeavor designed to provide steadfast responses to quarterbacking narratives, thereby improving the landscape of quarterback evaluations.
2 Table of Contents Introduction 3 Methodology 4 Kurt Benkert 14 Baker Mayfield 17 Luke Falk 20 Kyle Lauletta 23 Mason Rudolph 26 Brandon Silvers 29 Mike White 32 Josh Allen 35 arative Measures 38 Acknowledgements 51
Introduction I don t pretend to know much about scouting in the media. I haven t done it for very long. Still learning on the daily, I often discover two things I don t know for every one thing that I do. Among the things I can comfortably say I ve learned, however, is this: media scouting is inherently combative. When working for a team, a scout s objective find good players serves a larger mission: win a championship. Without the team, a scout in the media misses the forest, as it were, and begins bickering about the trees. Being right is now the only goal, the ultimate goal and, invariably accompanying the desire to be right, is the temptation to make the other guy wrong. In this way, I believe, we too easily throw stones from glass houses, undercutting others in a zero-sum pursuit for self-assuredness. I suppose I m making it out as far more dramatic than it really is I often do that, I m afraid but the salient point is this: prospects often make us argue, which turns into jabs and even insults. Quarterbacks, as the most important and complex of evaluations, are the most serious offenders. As such, I wanted to improve the conversation around quarterbacks specifically, with a method entrenched in unfettered truths. As such, the CQ became: a project wherein every throw is categorized and levered into understanding how a quarterback performs under various circumstances. I do not believe the CQ will solve quarterback evaluations; I do believe it will add objective context to those evaluations, and in doing so, allow us to investigate these players in more nuanced ways. It is a sincere pleasure to present Contextualized Quarterbacking. Thank you for reading. I hope you find it valuable. - Benjamin N. Solak 3
Methodology Here, I will explain how I determined the contexts I used, how throws were graded, and how the information provided can be best utilized. Every 2017 throw of a quarterback available to me was graded. Some throws, regrettably, were immediately discarded: perhaps the wide receiver fell out of his break; the quarterback was hit on the release; there was a miscommunication between route runner and thrower. While there are still characteristics of these quarterbacks to be gleaned on plays like these, that endeavor is for a more heuristic eye. The only throws in which we are interested are chart-worthy throws: throws wherein the camera catches the entire process of release, flight, and arrival of the football, and the target and quarterback both end up where they should. I also insisted on a traditional release motion. Sorry, shovel passes you just didn t make the cut. All-22 film, when available, was used to best understand ball location and coverage shells; when not available, regular broadcast film was used. A crucial note The CQ does not evaluate quarterback decision-making. When a boneheaded 20-year-old decides to heave a prayer into triple coverage, the CQ does not differentiate that throw from a wide-open TE on a Ghost screen at least, not until the ball arrives among the brambles of defensive backs. The CQ evaluates how well a quarterback throws the football under different conditions it is not a scouting report. Every quarterback included here would have better numbers if they made better decisions. That s why scouting understanding ceilings, coachability, et cetera is so important. 4
5 Methodology First Read One of our five primary contexts, determining whether a QB delivered the football to his First Read or Beyond holds value for multiple reasons. Firstly, it helps bust narratives around certain styles of offense. Mike White of Western Kentucky, Luke Falk of Washington State, and Brandon Silvers of Troy all run Air-Raid inspired offenses. Yet, while 21% of Falk s attempts were Beyond his first read, and 19% of White s, only 10% of Silvers made it Beyond. This is a good example of the CQ providing a context by challenging a notion and forcing a question: were Troy s receivers that much better than WKU s and Wazzu s at separating? The film says no; rather, Silvers doggedly glued himself to his first read at a disturbing frequency and this conclusion made from a cursory glance is reflected in our data. I charted First Reads quite stringently. If you were prescribed a threeman spacing concept and executed it in rhythm, it s very unlikely you got credit for moving Beyond. I didn t want to see a quarterback robotically move his eyes to predetermined landmarks in his sequence, only to deliver the ball where it should have gone all along. I wanted to see a quarterback make a decision a conscious reading of leverage/spacing beyond the simple If that corner buzzes to the flat, I ll hit the seven over top; if he drops, I ll hit the back on the flare route. Moving beyond the first read doesn t necessarily mean a quarterback is poised: premature pocket-breakers (lookin at you, Kurt Benkert) often moved beyond their first read without a semblance of calm or control.
Methodology What a high incidence of Beyond does show us, however, is a quarterback s ability to retain his head post-snap. He has at least enough werewithal to freelance with wide receivers as he scrambles, and at most, the acuity, playbook understanding, and self-control to shred a defense with whatever they give him. Far more straightforward than a First Read evaluation: if you re inside of the original tackle box, you re likely still In the. When a moving pocket was established think sprint-out motion with a puller/ motion man, common in Virginia s offense the consideration of In the was widened accordingly. The pocket extended back infinitely. On the infectious fake a bubble screen, throw the tunnel screen the other way that everyone and their grandmother ran, the QB often had to back up 5+ yards from the snap to sucker the defense in. Still in the pocket, for charting purposes. data gives us a few insights: how often a QB was exposed to the field without protection often speaks to his running ability; how often a QB freelanced; and what happened when he did. Platform Platform considerations are quite muddled, and were reasonably applied on a case-by-case basis without strong indicators. As you watch more reps of a quarterback, you become more familiar with his Clean Platform, which correspondingly makes it easier to find his Adjusted Platform, the most elusive of the three ( Move Platform is the third). 6
Methodology The Move Platform is likely the easiest to understand and identify: the quarterback threw on the move. When moving to the non-dominant hand side, it can become a touch more complex, as the QB swivels his hips and gives the illusion of an Adjusted Platform. Still Move, in most cases though I must reiterate, Platforms are tricky, and must be evaluated case-by-case. A Clean Platform involves, at the very least, hips and shoulders aimed to the target. A visible weight transfer is preferred to distinguish it from a common Adjusted Platform throw, in which the QB is pointed toward his target, but falling backwards, away from pressure. However, some passers Josh Allen gets the glare this time tend to forgo their weight transfer; their establishment of a throwing hallway; everything. Have they forced themselves into an Adjusted Platform without really Adjusting for anything? I m afraid that s often the case. Platform context gives us a huge insight into accuracy and placement, and the degree to which they are tied to mechanics. Check out Kyle Lauletta if you don t believe me. Pressure Pressure is likely the trickiest of the considerations, as it can result in so many outcomes: an easy climb of the pocket and Clean Platform throw; a frantic heave on the Move; a promising throw from the pocket turned Adjusted Platform from interior push. What happens when the QB escapes? Gets sacked? Throws the football away? The subtext says this: do not use the Pressure stats to evaluate a QB s decision-making under pressure. Of course, don t use any CQ data to 7
Methodology evaluate decision-making, but especially not for pressure. Use accuracy and placement under pressure to contextualize poise and accuracy from varying arm angles; use frequency of pressure in pocket to contextualize offensive line play; use frequency of pressure out of pocket to contextualize QB escapability. The main takeaway: who can stay cool, and who panics. Charting pressure takes a steady hand, as no quarter can be given to quarterbacks who create their own pressure by retreating to deep into the pocket or rolling out unnecessarily. When color flashes, the quarterback has a reflex: flee or hang tough. Often, that decision itself determines whether or not a defender s valiant effort becomes Pressure. This again speaks to the CQ s Pressure numbers relationship with poise. Tight Window The Tight Window is the most circumstantial of all contexts, and falls victim most austerely to the restrictions of camera angles. Colloquially, a Tight Window throw either narrowed the region of potential ball location that would be called Well Placed, or forced the potential ball location of Well Placed to be relocated entirely from the region it would otherwise be. Not specific and hard to enumerate, but you begin to know it when you see it. Sometimes it s easy: a honey hole shot against good Cover 2; a stick route against flat zones on the goal line. Sometimes it s hard delivering a comeback intentionally low and away, forcing the WR to dive; threading a needle on a seam route. 8
9 Methodology Tight Window metrics help us understand how fearless a QB can be, as well as help us contextualize the presumption that their WRs failed to separate. A quick note to that regard, however: a WR can wear a DB like a cloak if he can still present his chest to the QB on an in-breaking route, that is not a Tight Window throw. Be careful when assuming Tight Window equals no separation. Remember, the ball doesn t arrive at the window; it goes through it. Tight Window throws also help us contextualize, in my opinion, the degree to which a QB can be a gamer. Big time plays in big time ways, people.
Methodology Those are our five contexts: First Read/Beyond; Inside/Outside of ; Clean/Adjusted/Move Platform; Pressured/Unpressured; Clear/Tight Window. All throws in these contexts were graded on how they arrived at their target. This grade was divided into two categories: Accuracy and Placement. Accuracy is a binary system, and is relative to whether or not the ball was catchable. Placement is more tertiary (Whole point, half point, no point) and has more complex considerations. This division was made in an effort to distinguish accuracy from ball placement, as colloquial terms we use to describe a quarterback s ability to locate the football advantageously. In this effort, a word of caution: The QB s job is, first and foremost, to deliver a catchable football. We must caution one another from falling too far down Alice s rabbit-hole when it comes to accuracy and placement. Catchable A ball on which a WR can get at least one hand, with at least one foot in bounds, is catchable. A steadfast rule here helps, as we do not want to allow the acrobatic, catch-radius artists of Oklahoma State to synthetically boost Mason Rudolph s catchable numbers when compared to Kyle Lauletta and his FCS teammates. Balls that never arrive to the receiver can be determined catchable: think underthrows, or balls that are undercut and picked off. Catchable is graded against air as if no defenders were present. This system does disproportionately reward underthrows but don t worry about that. 10
Methodology Placement Placement works in union with Catchable to balance out underthrows and account for defenders. Placement considers three main factors along with unique considerations of individual plays, where applicable. Without hierarchy, they are: the maximization of YAC; the protection of the throw from defenders; the protection of the WR from hits. If we step into our mind, we can easily see how this translates: a wellplaced back-shoulder fade is away and high, but not too high as to expose the receiver to being shoved out of bounds; a well-placed sit route leads the receiver away from the closing safety he cannot see; a wellplaced slant in the end zone sticks right between the numbers. Placement is inherently less concerned with receivers and more concerned with defenders as such, it responds to the underthrow issue of Catchable. A deep ball two yards underthrown may be Catchable, but is likely Poorly Placed, as it exposes the ball to the defender to make a play. A deep ball two yards overthrown may not be Catchable, but it is Decently Placed (half a point) or even Well Placed (full point) relative to the coverage. While it is not written into the script, Placement does reflect on a quarterback s velocity. A perfectly-located ball that arrives too late and dies in the air likely will not end up getting a Well Placed grade, as it allows the DB to arrive and make a play. Likewise, an absolute heater of a ball better be in an easy place to make a catch otherwise, nobody s hanging on to that thing. 11
12 Methodology Notes: A few ancillary notes on charting, before we get into the data: If a penalty did not affect the process of a play, I still charted that play. For example: offensive holding affects absolutely nothing in the QB s process, and as such, those plays are still charted. It would have like been Pressured and not Unpressured without the hold, but for the QB s purposes, it s another rep without pressure. Let s learn from that rep. Depth of target measurements were taken from the line of scrimmage, not the QB s location at the moment of release. The horizontal region of the field (left, middle, and right) did have some give to it relative to QB location. The hashes are wide in college: should a QB take a snap on the right hash and deliver a quick hitter just outside the right hash, I felt comfortable charting that throw as Middle. I hope you can forgive me Receiver direction also plays a role here. When it s tough to determine, the region into which a player is heading was more likely to get the call than the region into which a player was leaving. I chart s and Drops both quite strictly. I don t care if the CB didn t turn around the ball should never have been in a place he could have played on it in the first place. WRs are players, too if you smack at least 1.5 hands on that ball, I don t care what acrobatics you did to get there throw some Stickum on and reel that puppy in.
Quarterback Data Sheets 13
14 Kurt Benkert Senior, UVA, born 8/7/1995 Games Charted (11): v. Indiana, v. Connecticut, @ Boise State, v. Duke, @ UNC, v. Boston College, v. Georgia Tech, @ Louisville, @ Miami (FL), v. Virginia Tech, n. Navy The Skinny Kurt Benkert s film illustrates a streaky QB that can really operate when he s in a groove, but fails to recover after small mistakes. A right-handed QB, Benkert favored the right side target-wise, but actually proved more accurate downfield (10+) to his left-hand side, a phenomena likely attributed to his penchant for exiting the pocket and throwing an accurate ball on the move. Benkert tends to create pressure when there is none, and must improve his ability to manage a clean/slightly collapsing pocket with subtle movements and downfield eyes. Despite having a high -velocity arm, Benkert struggled in general with deep ball accuracy and with tight-window throws, likely due to high-variance mechanics. Benkert currently projects as an Early Day 3/Late Day 2 investment who has starter traits if his inconsistencies can be ironed out, and his strengths focused. Chartable Attempts TD YAC 19 24 1341 % INT INTa % YAC % 249 61.6% 9 5.9% 49.3% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 404 2,720 2.11.869.617 Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone 61 36 15 Att 104 66 31 Yards 656 408 134 % 58.7% 54.5% 48.4% Accuracy 0.913 0.894 0.806 Placement 0.596 0.598 0.661 Conversion 39 18 5 Conversion % 37.5% 27.3% 16.1% Adj. Conv. % 40.5% 30.3% 21.2% 5 4 2 % 4.8% 6.1% 6.5% Charting by Region 8/36, 324 yds Accuracy:.722 Placement:.528 1/6, 51 yds Accuracy:.5 Placement:.083 9/24, 336 yds Accuracy:.458 Placement:.375 18/66, 711 yds Accuracy:.606 Placement:.432 9/20, 165 Accuracy:.7 Placement:.475 12/23, 215 yds Accuracy:.782 Placement:.435 6/16, 98 yds Accuracy:.75 Placement:.469 27/59, 478 yds Accuracy:.746 Placement:.458 41/52, 303 yds Accuracy:.923 Placement:.587 49/76, 426 yds Accuracy:.974 Placement:.717 51/81, 516 yds Accuracy:.938 Placement:.685 141/209, 1,245 yds Accuracy:.947 Placement:.672 24/27, 120 yds Accuracy:.96 Placement:.85 5/5, 35 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.8 34/38, 135 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.70 63/70, 290 yds Accuracy:.986 Placement:.764 82/135, 912 yds Accuracy:.844 Placement:.607 67/110, 727 yds Accuracy:.909 Placement:.627 100/159, 1,085 yds Accuracy:.862 Placement:.620 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.844 Placement:.587
15 Senior, UVA, born 8/7/1995 Exceptional Data Kurt Benkert Dropbacks 474 Scrambles 19 4.0% Sacks 24 5.1% Games Charted (11): v. Indiana, v. Connecticut, @ Boise State, v. Duke, @ UNC, v. Boston College, v. Georgia Tech, @ Louisville, @ Miami (FL), v. Virginia Tech, n. Navy Batted 9 1.9% Throwaway 18 3.8% Drops 28 Drop rate 6.9% Adjusted comp% 68.6% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 8.9% 1.5% 5.9% 11.9% 1.9% 12.4% 5.0% 5.7% 4.0% 6.1% 7.9% 3.6% 12.9% 18.8% 20.0% 11.1% 15.7% 19.0% 6.7% 1.2% 9.4% 4.4% 1.3% 5.0% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map 0.722 0.500 0.458 0.528 0.083 0.375 0.700 0.783 0.750 0.475 0.435 0.469 0.923 0.974 0.938 0.587 0.717 0.685 0.963 1.000 1.000 0.852 0.800 0.697
16 Kurt Benkert Redshirt Senior, UVA, born 1/1/1997 arative Measures Top Quartile Acc Move Platform % attempt Tight Window Drop % Bottom Quartile Adj. conv. % (3 & 5+) Adj. conv. % (RZ) Games Charted (11): v. Indiana, v. Connecticut, @ Boise State, v. Duke, @ UNC, v. Boston College, v. Georgia Tech, @ Louisville, @ Miami (FL), v. Virginia Tech, n. Navy Contextual Data: Raw First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window 209 39 206 42 180 13 55 221 27 213 35 Att 330 74 Att 337 67 Att 287 35 82 Att 341 63 Att 301 103 % 63% 53% % 61% 63% % 63% 37% 67% % 65% 43% % 71% 34% Att% 82% 18% Att% 83% 17% Att% 71% 9% 20% Att% 84% 16% Att% 75% 25% 0.888 0.784 0.875 0.836 0.895 0.657 0.866 0.897 0.714 0.910 0.748 0.632 0.554 0.625 0.582 0.643 0.443 0.604 0.636 0.516 0.658 0.500 19 5 17 7 14 3 7 16 8 9 15 INTa % 5.8% 6.8% INTa % 5.0% 10.4% INTa % 4.9% 8.6% 8.5% INTa % 4.7% 12.7% INTa % 3.0% 14.6% First Read Beyond -16.8% -11.7% -12.3% 17.4% In Out 2.6% -4.5% -6.8% 107.1% Contextual Data: Change Clean Adjusted Move -40.8% 6.9% -26.6% -3.3% -31.1% -6.1% 75.7% 75.0% Approaching the Senior Bowl No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -33.9% -20.4% -18.9% 170.6% -52.0% -17.9% -24.0% 387.1% From the film alone, I m not sure how different Kurt Benkert and Josh Allen are, and that s the biggest question I have coming in to the Senior Bowl. The similarities between Allen and Benkert fall with their strengths: Benkert s ability to generate velocity from all throwing platforms, arm angles, and to all levels of the field truly impresses. Benkert s rarely spent more than two reads in the pocket during his time with the Cavaliers, either committing quickly to a half-field read, or delivering a pre-read fade route down the field. He seemed uncomfortable hanging in the pocket his offensive line, admittedly, did nothing to alleviate these concerns. As such, Benkert often fled relatively clean pockets, and looked to freelance when he could have, perhaps, retained the structure of the play and moved on to a tertiary read (if such a read existed in the scheme). Accordingly, Benkert must show comfort operating from a pocket in Mobile: resetting his throwing platform, scanning across the field, and delivering an accurate ball. Continuing our theme of comparison, Josh Allen will need to show similar traits as well. Benkert has the opportunity to become the subject of most Senior Bowl QB Riser articles if he can show his comparable athleticism and velocity, while hopefully mustering some consistency in his accuracy and placement.
17 Baker Mayfield Redshirt Senior, OKLA, born 4/14/1995 Games Charted (14): v. UTEP, @ Ohio State, v. Tulane, @ Baylor, v. Iowa State, @ Texas, @ Kansas State, v. Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State, v. TCU, @ Kansas, v. West Virginia, n. TCU (CCG), n. UGA The Skinny Baker Mayfield s film illustrates an exceptionally accurate quarterback from the pocket, on the run, pressured, in variable arm angles, moving through his reads, everything who is only limited by his gamer mentality and occasionally, his height. Baker uses the entirety of his pliable frame to generate velocity, which allows him to reach 60+ yards down the field, but can occasionally lead to a slingshot motion that drives the ball high to its target. Baker s typically high placement is more prevalent when he cannot set a base, and especially when bodies obstruct his throwing hallway, in which he is forced into a high release point due to his smaller frame. It is not yet an issue, but it is certainly worthy of note. Beyond that, Baker s best trait beyond his accuracy is his creativity and arm talent, which allows him to make wild, unscripted plays. He projects as a first-round quarterback and best into a spread/wco. Chartable Attempts TD YAC 38 15 1976 % INT INTa % YAC % 243 73.9% 5 4.5% 47.5% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 329 4,158 7.6.939.679 Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone 42 29 34 Att 69 45 45 Yards 574 397 341 % 60.9% 64.4% 75.6% Accuracy.942.956 1 Placement.587.556.789 Conversion 31 20 21 Conversion % 44.9% 44.4% 46.7% Adj. Conv. % 48.3% 45.8% 44.6% 8 5 1 % 11.6% 11.1% 2.2% Charting by Region 7/14, 313 yds Accuracy:.714 Placement:.607 15/26, 655 yds Accuracy:.846 Placement:.384 13/29, 451 yds Accuracy:.862 Placement:.690 35/69, 1419 yds Accuracy:.826 Placement:.558 14/19, 249 yds Accuracy:.895 Placement:.658 32/47, 618 yds Accuracy:.915 Placement:.521 22/30, 347 yds Accuracy:.967 Placement:.633 68/96, 1214 yds Accuracy:.927 Placement:.583 20/22, 315 yds Accuracy:.955 Placement:.682 37/46, 546 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.739 24/29, 184 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.793 81/97, 1045 yds Accuracy:.989 Placement:.742 18/20, 141 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.825 14/16, 120 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.844 27/31, 219 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.871 59/67, 480 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.850 59/75, 1018 yds Accuracy:.907 Placement:.700 98/135, 1939 yds Accuracy:.941 Placement:.607 86/119, 1201 yds Accuracy:.958 Placement:.748 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.924 Placement:.636
18 Redshirt Senior, OKLA, born 4/14/1995 Exceptional Data Baker Mayfield Dropbacks 397 Scrambles 31 7.8% Sacks 21 5.3% Games Charted (14): v. UTEP, @ Ohio State, v. Tulane, @ Baylor, v. Iowa State, @ Texas, @ Kansas State, v. Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State, v. TCU, @ Kansas, v. West Virginia, n. TCU (CCG), n. UGA Batted 5 1.3% Throwaway 11 2.8% Drops 24 Drop rate 7.3% Adjusted comp% 81.2% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 4.3% 7.9% 8.8% 7.5% 15.8% 10.8% 5.8% 14.3% 9.1% 6.0% 14.9% 8.3% 6.7% 14.0% 8.8% 7.6% 13.1% 4.4% 6.1% 4.9% 9.4% 3.4% 2.9% 5.3% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map 0.714 0.846 0.862 0.607 0.385 0.690 0.895 0.915 0.967 0.658 0.521 0.633 0.955 1.000 1.000 0.682 0.739 0.793 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.825 0.844 0.871
19 First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window 199 44 199 44 159 41 43 192 51 215 28 Att 258 71 Att 267 62 Att 212 61 56 Att 250 79 Att 261 68 % 77% 62% % 75% 71% % 75% 67% 77% % 77% 65% % 82% 41% Att% 78% 22% Att% 81% 19% Att% 64% 19% 17% Att% 76% 24% Att% 79% 21% 0.950 0.901 0.948 0.903 0.939 0.951 0.929 0.948 0.911 0.954 0.882 0.698 0.613 0.676 0.694 0.684 0.607 0.741 0.704 0.601 0.680 0.676 10 5 12 3 11 3 1 13 2 8 7 INTa % 3.9% 7.0% INTa % 4.5% 4.8% INTa % 5.2% 4.9% 1.8% INTa % 5.2% 2.5% INTa % 3.1% 10.3% Baker Mayfield Redshirt Senior, OKLA, born 4/14/1995 Games Charted (14): v. UTEP, @ Ohio State, v. Tulane, @ Baylor, v. Iowa State, @ First Read Beyond -19.7% -5.1% -12.2% 81.7% In Out -4.8% -4.7% 2.6% 7.7% Clean Adjusted Move Top Quartile Texas, @ Kansas State, v. Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma State, v. TCU, @ Kansas, v. West Virginia, n. TCU (CCG), n. UGA Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change -10.4% 2.4% 1.3% -1.1% -11.3% 8.3% -5.2% -65.6% Notable Measures Acc/place under all 5 contexts Acc/place Beyond LoS Adj. conv. % (3rd) Adj. conv. % (3 & 5+) Adj. conv. % (RZ) % attempt Beyond 1st R. Approaching the Senior Bowl No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -15.9% -3.9% -14.6% -51.3% Bottom Quartile -50.0% -7.5% -0.5% 235.8% I imagine Baker Mayfield wakes up every day thinking he s the top dog; approaching the Senior Bowl should be no different. Markedly the most talented quarterback of the field, Baker still does have a few boxes to check, but the biggest is this: don t lose ground. As long as Baker delivers as consistently a catchable football to all levels of the field, and from all platforms, he will remain firmly in the mix of the top quarterbacks in this Draft. Baker must also endeavor not to lose ground and perhaps, even make some during the interview portions of the week. His interactions with the media have always been fine, but coaches will likely press him on some of the competitive shenanigans and antics. It will also be interesting to see to what degree Baker becomes the leader of his team/the QB group during his limited time at Mobile, and what his leadership style looks like up close. From a more play-oriented perspective, I m interested to see to what degree Baker s high placement is a product of his height. Throwing drills without linemen will help illumine this question. Baker can be late to his reads down the field, which makes his long balls often appear underthrown, so his deep placement should also be examined in throwing drills. Finally, Baker can throw from too wide of a base as he works through his progressions, and I m interested to see if that is a mechanical issue or harmless idiosyncrasy up close.
20 Luke Falk Redshirt Senior, WSU, born 12/28/1994 Games Charted (11): v. Montana State, v. Boise State, v. Oregon State, v. USC, @ Oregon, @ California, v. Colorado, @ Arizona, v. Stanford, @ Utah, @ Washington The Skinny Luke Falk leaves Washington State a prolific passer, but I fear for his pro transition. Falk can deliver a pretty ball, and has the touch to drop throws in the bucket both in the middle of the field and on the sideline. However, he lacks the arm strength to vary velocity, and as such, simply cannot make all of the throws. Falk s pocket presence is inconsistent, and when paired with his average athleticism, tethers his game to the pocket and entirely handicaps him when pressured. Born and bred in the Air Raid, Falk regularly sits on his primary read for extended periods of time, relying on the spacing of his offense to eventually open a throwing window. Beyond the occasional impressive touch pass into traffic, Falk simply does not regularly demonstrate NFL skills, nor does he have raw NFL traits that are yet unearthed. Falk needs a wide-open offense to see any success, and projects at best as a backup in the NFL. Chartable Attempts TD YAC 23 11 1728 % INT INTa % YAC % 303 66.0% 11 6.1% 57.7% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 459 2,995 2.09.876.618 Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone 68 37 39 Att 122 78 62 Yards 872 637 309 % 55.7% 47.4% 62.9% Accuracy 0.836 0.782 0.871 Placement 0.545 0.506 0.653 Conversion 52 28 15 Conversion % 42.6% 35.9% 24.2% Adj. Conv. % 47.0% 36.2% 23.9% 12 9 5 % 9.8% 11.5% 8.1% Charting by Region 6/24, 177 yds Accuracy:.583 Placement:.271 9/19, 285 yds Accuracy:.895 Placement:.527 13/29, 451 yds Accuracy:.704 Placement:.407 23/70, 701 yds Accuracy:.714 Placement:.393 9/22, 143 yds Accuracy:.909 Placement:.613 14/37, 249 yds Accuracy:.676 Placement:.432 10/29, 138 yds Accuracy:.655 Placement:.586 33/88, 530 yds Accuracy:.727 Placement:.528 18/28, 140 yds Accuracy:.857 Placement:.482 71/93, 689 yds Accuracy:.968 Placement:.726 33/43, 233 yds Accuracy:.884 Placement:.616 122/164, 1062 yds Accuracy:.927 Placement:.655 40/44, 232 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.738 15/18, 113 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.778 70/75, 357 yds Accuracy:.987 Placement:.747 125/137, 702 yds Accuracy:.993 Placement:.748 73/118, 692 yds Accuracy:.864 Placement:.559 109/167, 1336 yds Accuracy:.898 Placement:.644 121/174, 967 yds Accuracy:.862 Placement:.635 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.826 Placement:.564
21 Redshirt Senior, WSU, born 12/28/1994 Exceptional Data Luke Falk Dropbacks 531 Scrambles 25 4.7% Sacks 35 6.6% Games Charted (11): v. Montana State, v. Boise State, v. Oregon State, v. USC, @ Oregon, @ California, v. Colorado, @ Arizona, v. Stanford, @ Utah, @ Washington Batted 4 0.8% Throwaway 8 1.5% Drops 31 Drop rate 6.8% Adjusted comp% 72.8% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 5.2% 4.1% 5.9% 5.9% 9.5% 8.0% 4.8% 8.1% 6.3% 4.8% 8.3% 4.6% 6.1% 20.3% 9.4% 4.7% 23.0% 7.8% 9.6% 3.9% 16.3% 7.7% 3.8% 11.9% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map 0.583 0.895 0.704 0.271 0.526 0.407 0.909 0.676 0.655 0.614 0.432 0.586 0.857 0.968 0.884 0.482 0.726 0.616 1.000 1.000 0.987 0.739 0.778 0.747
22 Luke Falk Redshirt Senior, WSU, born 12/28/1994 Games Charted (11): v. Montana State, v. Boise State, v. Oregon State, v. USC, @ Oregon, @ California, v. Colorado, @ Arizona, v. Stanford, @ Utah, @ Washington Top Quartile Notable Measures YAC % % attempt Beyond 1st R. Bottom Quartile Adj. conv. % (Red Zone) Acc Move Platform Place Out of First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window 243 60 286 17 245 30 28 267 36 279 24 Att 362 97 Att 427 32 Att 363 54 42 Att 384 75 Att 366 93 % 67% 62% % 67% 53% % 67% 56% 67% % 70% 48% % 76% 26% Att% 79% 21% Att% 93% 7% Att% 79% 12% 9% Att% 84% 16% Att% 80% 20% 0.881 0.856 0.890 0.688 0.893 0.815 0.786 0.896 0.773 0.918 0.710 0.622 0.608 0.626 0.516 0.640 0.500 0.571 0.648 0.467 0.650 0.495 22 5 26 1 23 3 1 21 6 12 15 INTa % 6.1% 5.2% INTa % 6.1% 3.1% INTa % 6.3% 5.6% 2.4% INTa % 5.5% 8.0% INTa % 3.3% 16.1% First Read Beyond -7.9% -2.9% -2.1% -15.2% In Out -20.7% -22.7% -17.7% -48.7% Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change Clean Adjusted Move -17.5% -1.0% -8.7% -12.0% -21.9% -10.7% -12.1% -62.3% Approaching the Senior Bowl No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -31.0% -13.7% -28.0% 46.3% -66.1% -22.7% -23.9% 391.9% Falk s primary goal at the Senior Bowl must first be to continue delivering a consistently accurate, well-placed ball despite how the various contexts (pressure, out of pocket, tight window throws) affect his accuracy and placement, he should look very clean in drills, delivering the football where it belongs. That s step one. Falk s biggest area of gain, in my opinion, will be demonstrating to what extent his arm can reach all levels of the field, and with what velocity he can deliver the football. Falk has attempted and completed such NFL throws as the deep comeback, the deep out, the back-shoulder fade, et cetera. Those throws often lacked mustard and looked more jump ball than anything else. Perhaps in drills, Falk will be able to model some velocity that he rarely called up on in game situations. It s unlikely his arm stands out among Mayfield s and Allen s, but he can make some ground here against his own film. Beyond this, the Senior Bowl does not provide an ideal proving grounds re: throws against pressure, outside of the pocket, into tight windows. Falk will likely have to stand on his tape when it comes to those categories, and in the end, that will eventually lead to his depressed Draft stock.
23 Kyle Lauletta Redshirt Senior, Richmond, born 3/17/1995 Games Charted (3): @ Villanova, @ JMU, v. William & Mary The Skinny The ball goes where Kyle Lauletta wants it to go. His release is lightningquick, and while his mental processing isn t as snappy, the combination of the two allow him to read and react to tight windows/defensive leverage very nicely. Mechanically pure, Lauletta generates all of his velocity from his lower half and through his core, which helps him remain accurate on high-velocity throws. However, he does not have an impressive arm, and labors to reach even 40-45 yards down the field. Without a clean base, his velocity notably falls off, though he still remains competitively accurate when on the run. Despite being listed at 6 3, a high incidence of Lauletta s throws were batted at the line of scrimmage, which puts in question his height and release point. Lauletta struggles notably beyond his first read, in part due to a poor OL and lackluster WRs. Lauletta warrants a Draft selection and long-term look at backup in the NFL. Chartable Attempts TD YAC 3 4 295 % INT INTa % YAC % 59 67.8% 4 4.6% 39.6% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 87 745.75.896.764 Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone 15 12 4 Att 26 20 8 Yards 168 153 34 % 57.7% 60.0% 50.0% Accuracy 0.923 0.950 0.875 Placement 0.750 0.775 0.938 Conversion 7 5 2 Conversion % 26.9% 25.0% 25.0% Adj. Conv. % 26.7% 26.1% 33.3% 2 2 0 % 7.7% 10.0% 0.0% Charting by Region 3/6, 76 yds Accuracy:.833 Placement:.583 2/6, 45 yds Accuracy:.5 Placement:.25 0/3, 0 yds Accuracy:.667 Placement:.667 5/15, 121 yds Accuracy:.667 Placement:.467 4/6, 78 yds Accuracy:.833 Placement:.583 9/13, 140 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.087 5/8, 146 yds Accuracy:.875 Placement:.813 18/27, 364 yds Accuracy:.926 Placement:.759 14/17, 79 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.912 4/5, 43 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: 1 11/15, 95 yds Accuracy:.867 Placement:.733 29/37, 217 yds Accuracy:.946 Placement:.851 3/4, 31 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement: 1 0/0, 0 yds Accuracy: N/A Placement: N/A 4/4, 12 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.875 7/8, 43 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.938 24/33, 264 yds Accuracy:.939 Placement:.803 15/24, 228 Accuracy:.875 Placement:.708 20/30, 253 yds Accuracy:.867 Placement:.767 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.886 Placement:.747
24 Redshirt Senior, Richmond, born 3/17/1995 Exceptional Data Kyle Lauletta Dropbacks 109 Scrambles 6 5.5% Sacks 8 7.3% Games Charted (3): @ Villanova, @ JMU, v. William & Mary Batted 5 4.6% Throwaway 3 2.8% Drops 7 Drop rate 8.0% Adjusted comp% 75.9% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 6.9% 6.9% 3.4% 10.2% 6.0% 0.0% 6.9% 14.9% 9.2% 10.5% 18.8% 19.6% 19.5% 5.7% 17.2% 10.6% 5.8% 12.8% 4.6% 0.0% 4.6% 4.2% 0.0% 1.6% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map 0.833 0.500 0.667 0.583 0.250 0.667 0.833 1.000 0.875 0.583 0.808 0.813 1.000 1.000 0.867 0.912 1.000 0.733 1.000 N/A 1.000 1.000 #DIV/0! 0.875
Kyle Lauletta Redshirt Senior, Richmond, born 3/17/1995 Games Charted (3): @ Villanova, @ JMU, v. William & Mary Top Quartile Notable Measures Acc/place Beyond LoS Place Beyond 1st R. Place Out of Place Move Platform Acc/place Pressured Acc/place Tight Window Bottom Quartile % attempt Beyond 1st. R Adj. conv. % (3rd) Adj. conv. % (3 & 5+) Acc/place Adjusted Platform Acc Beyond 1st R. First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window 50 9 42 17 40 3 16 48 11 51 8 Att 73 14 Att 65 22 Att 59 7 21 Att 65 22 Att 70 17 % 68% 64% % 65% 77% % 68% 43% 76% % 74% 50% % 73% 47% Att% 84% 16% Att% 75% 25% Att% 68% 8% 24% Att% 75% 25% Att% 80% 20% 0.932 0.714 0.908 0.864 0.966 0.429 0.857 0.923 0.818 0.914 0.824 0.781 0.679 0.754 0.795 0.805 0.357 0.786 0.785 0.705 0.764 0.765 3 1 3 1 3 0 1 2 2 2 2 INTa % 4.1% 7.1% INTa % 4.6% 4.5% INTa % 5.1% 0.0% 4.8% INTa % 3.1% 9.1% INTa % 2.9% 11.8% First Read Beyond -6.1% -23.3% -13.1% 73.8% In Out 19.6% -4.9% 5.5% -1.5% Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change Clean Adjusted Move -36.8% 12.4% -55.6% -11.3% -55.6% -2.4% -100.0% -6.3% Approaching the Senior Bowl No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -32.3% -11.4% -10.2% 195.5% -35.4% -9.9% 0.1% 311.8% Lauletta walks into Mobile with the most to gain out of all the quarterbacks. The formula is simple: look like you belong, and you ll go from FCS darling to competitive late-round selection. Looking like he belongs is the key, however, and that starts in the first day, during measurements. Listed at 6030 216, Lauletta strikes me as a touch shorter and a touch lighter. He ll likely be among the shortest of QBs present (along with Mayfield and Silvers), and I imagine he ll be the lightest. If he can hang close to Mayfield/ Silvers, it won t stick out, but if he s an inch or so shorter and 7-10 pounds lighter, it ll put him at an early disadvantage for NFL teams. Hand size, as always, will also be key I expect he barely makes the 9 threshold. Lauletta worked a relatively simply route tree in Richmond, and there may be a slight learning curve during practices as he determines how best to locate the football, but I imagine by the end of the week his ball placement will shine comparatively, especially in drills that include defenders. NFL teams will be impressed by how the ball leaves his hand, but they ll be more interested in radar gun measurements, and how Lauletta s velocity compares to FBS quarterbacks. Again, I believe Lauletta can remain competitive in this regard when his mechanics are sound but he must prove it. I ll also be interested to see the extent to which Lauletta leads, and how vocal he is among FBS players. 25
26 Mason Rudolph Senior, OKST, born 7/17/1995 Games Charted (13): v. Tulsa, @ South Alabama, @ Pitt, v. TCU, @ Texas Tech, v. Baylor, @ Texas, @ West Virginia, v. Oklahoma, @ Iowa State, v. Kansas State, v. Kansas, n. Virginia Tech The Skinny Mason Rudolph presents an interesting evaluation and a tough riddle. He throws a very catchable football, but his ball placement is overestimated, likely due to the wide-open nature of his offense. Well-built, Rudolph has a strong arm that can reach 60+ yards down the field, and his greatest strength is his downfield accuracy and placement but again, one wonders the extent to which scheme/wrs assisted with those numbers. Surprising, perhaps, are Rudolph s numbers beyond his first read, outside of the pocket, and even throwing into tight windows there are signs of promise in all three, which indicate that Rudolph could indeed grow beyond his scheme. Rudolph s struggles with ball placement, zip, and offplatform limit him as a creative passer, but he certainly has fringe starting potential in a vertical-based offense with a strong offensive line. Chartable Attempts TD YAC 37 33 1,855 % INT INTa % YAC % 307 64.8% 8 6.9% 37.8% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 474 4,907 4.625.871.602 Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone 65 47 31 Att 110 83 67 Yards 894 704 308 % 59.1% 56.6% 46.3% Accuracy 0.855 0.807 0.806 Placement 0.586 0.530 0.627 Conversion 55 37 14 Conversion % 50.0% 44.6% 20.9% Adj. Conv. % 50.4% 46.8% 25% 6 6 8 % 5.5% 7.2% 11.9% Charting by Region 13/30, 562 yds Accuracy:.8 Placement:.5 15/27, 590 yds Accuracy:.704 Placement:.519 16/39, 662 yds Accuracy:.744 Placement:.526 44/96, 1,814 yds Accuracy:.75 Placement:.516 39/64, 596 yds Accuracy:.843 Placement:.563 43/72, 968 yds Accuracy:.889 Placement:.549 20/39, 252 yds Accuracy:.872 Placement:.410 102/175, 1,816 yds Accuracy:.869 Placement:.523 21/28, 214 yds Accuracy:.821 Placement:.643 28/39, 296 yds Accuracy:.897 Placement:.744 37/48, 347 yds Accuracy:.938 Placement:.667 86/115, 857 yds Accuracy:.896 Placement:.687 36/42, 202 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.774 15/18, 99 yds Accuracy:.889 Placement:.75 24/28, 119 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.696 75/88, 420 yds Accuracy:.977 Placement:.744 109/164, 1,574 yds Accuracy:.872 Placement:.619 101/156, 1,953 yds Accuracy:.859 Placement:.615 97/154, 1,380 yds Accuracy:.883 Placement:.571 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.847 Placement:.570
27 Senior, OKST, born 7/17/1995 Exceptional Data Mason Rudolph Dropbacks 525 Scrambles 14 2.7% Sacks 22 4.2% Games Charted (13): v. Tulsa, @ South Alabama, @ Pitt, v. TCU, @ Texas Tech, v. Baylor, @ Texas, @ West Virginia, v. Oklahoma, @ Iowa State, v. Kansas State, v. Kansas, n. Virginia Tech Batted 5 1.0% Throwaway 9 1.7% Drops 25 Drop rate 5.3% Adjusted comp% 70.0% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 6.3% 5.7% 8.2% 11.5% 12.0% 13.5% 13.5% 15.2% 8.2% 12.1% 19.7% 5.1% 5.9% 8.2% 10.1% 4.4% 6.0% 7.1% 8.9% 3.8% 5.9% 4.1% 2.0% 2.4% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map 0.800 0.704 0.744 0.500 0.519 0.526 0.844 0.889 0.872 0.563 0.549 0.410 0.821 0.897 0.938 0.643 0.744 0.667 1.000 0.889 1.000 0.774 0.750 0.696
First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window 245 62 293 14 256 40 11 258 49 260 47 Att 373 101 Att 449 25 Att 386 67 21 Att 387 87 Att 339 135 % 66% 61% % 65% 56% % 66% 60% 52% % 67% 56% % 77% 35% Att% 79% 21% Att% 95% 5% Att% 81% 14% 4% Att% 82% 18% Att% 72% 28% 0.871 0.871 0.871 0.880 0.883 0.821 0.810 0.886 0.805 0.906 0.785 0.617 0.550 0.604 0.580 0.610 0.590 0.500 0.619 0.529 0.602 0.604 28 5 32 1 25 8 0 22 11 11 22 INTa % 7.5% 5.0% INTa % 7.1% 4.0% INTa % 6.5% 11.9% 0.0% INTa % 5.7% 12.6% INTa % 3.2% 16.3% Mason Rudolph First Read Beyond -6.5% 0.0% -10.9% -34.1% Senior, OKST, born 7/17/1995 Games Charted (13): v. Tulsa, @ South Alabama, @ Pitt, v. TCU, @ Texas Tech, v. In Out -14.2% 1.1% -3.9% -43.9% Clean Adjusted Move Top Quartile Baylor, @ Texas, @ West Virginia, v. Oklahoma, @ Iowa State, v. Kansas State, v. Kansas, n. Virginia Tech Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change -10.0% -21.0% -7.1% -8.4% -3.4% -18.0% 84.4% -100% Notable Measures Acc Beyond 1st R. Acc Out of Acc Adjusted Platform % Adj. conv. % (3rd) Adj. conv. % (3 & 5+) % attempt Tight Window Approaching the Senior Bowl No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -15.5% -9.2% -14.6% 122.4% Bottom Quartile Place Move Platform -54.6% -13.3% 0.3% 402.2% Much like his evaluation, what Mason Rudolph must accomplish at the Senior Bowl is a bit of a conundrum. NFL teams may view him as up in the Baker Mayfield/Josh Allen tier, but he doesn t have the numbers to compete with Baker or the tools to compete with Allen. To my eyes, and by the numbers, Rudolph is far closer to Luke Falk than he is to Baker it s his job, I suppose, to prove that take wrong. Rudolph s first test will be the 15 yard out from the far hash a throw he completed often in Oklahoma State, but with questionable velocity and timing. If he can deliver that ball with a tighter spiral and lower trajectory, that will help alleviate some of the velocity concerns that liken him to Falk. After that, Rudolph must prove that he has competitive placement. Playing with two catch radius monsters in Marcell Ateman and James Washington, Rudolph s poorly placed footballs were regularly rescued he will not enjoy such a luxury at the Senior Bowl. I suspect his accuracy, lauded by many, will be put under a more critical spotlight when Ateman/Washington aren t around to save him. Josh Allen is going to throw the ball 70+ yards down the field, just to prove he can. What can Rudolph reach? 28
29 Brandon Silvers Redshirt Senior, TROY, born 5/09/1994 Games Charted (12): @ Boise State, v. Alabama State, @ New Mexico State, v. Akron, @ LSU, v. South Alabama, @ Georgia State, v. Georgia Southern, v. Idaho, v. Texas State, @ Arkansas State, n. North Texas The Skinny Brandon Silvers, I m afraid, does little to excite. He can really whip it, but a lot of his velocity results from a massive windup that was masked by wide-open throwing windows in an Air-Raid inspired offense under Troy HC Neal Brown. He doesn t model fantastic anticipation, which only furthers the issue of his slow release. If those heaters can still arrive in the narrow NFL windows, Silvers has some potential as a gun-slinging backup. But at present, Silvers struggles mightily against pressure, has very sporadic downfield accuracy, and often panics when asked to move beyond his first read. The majority of his production came in the form of YAC, and the majority of his interceptable balls came on force-feeds to his primary read. His sidearm mechanics and correspondingly wonky placement could work with massive strides in anticipation, processing, and poise, but it s tough to imagine those gains coming to fruition. Chartable Attempts TD YAC 17 14 1,762 % INT INTa % YAC % 254 64.0% 5 3.5% 57.7% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 397 3,050 3.4.872.601 Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone 61 49 25 Att 112 89 44 Yards 748 605 276 % 54.5% 55.1% 56.8% Accuracy 0.839 0.831 0.795 Placement 0.558 0.539 0.545 Conversion 40 29 12 Conversion % 35.7% 32.6% 27.3% Adj. Conv. % 39.2% 34.4% 30.0% 6 5 3 % 5.4% 5.6% 6.8% Charting by Region 8/29, 291 yds Accuracy:.552 Placement:.397 4/12, 166 yds Accuracy:.75 Placement:.333 5/12, 170 yds Accuracy:.667 Placement:.458 17/53, 627 yds Accuracy:.62 Placement:.396 11/24, 157 yds Accuracy:.75 Placement:.458 15/38, 293 yds Accuracy:.816 Placement:.447 12/29, 192 yds Accuracy:.724 Placement:.483 38/91, 642 yds Accuracy:.769 Placement:.462 27/37, 249 yds Accuracy:.892 Placement:.649 31/48, 323 yds Accuracy:.958 Placement:.688 36/46, 346 yds Accuracy:.913 Placement:.717 94/131, 918 yds Accuracy:.924 Placement:.687 45/50, 382 yds Accuracy:.980 Placement:.680 22/26, 228 yds Accuracy:.962 Placement:.712 38/46, 253 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.717 105/122, 863 yds Accuracy:.984 Placement:.701 91/140, 1,079 yds Accuracy:.829 Placement:.575 72/124, 1,010 yds Accuracy:.895 Placement:.585 91/133, 961 yds Accuracy:.880 Placement:.643 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.815 Placement:.556
30 Brandon Silvers Redshirt Senior, TROY, born 5/09/1994 Games Charted (12): @ Boise State, v. Alabama State, @ New Mexico State, v. Akron, @ LSU, v. South Alabama, @ Georgia State, v. Georgia Southern, v. Idaho, v. Texas State, @ Arkansas State, n. North Texas Exceptional Data Dropbacks 430 Scrambles 5 1.2% Sacks 13 3.0% Batted 4 0.9% Throwaway 11 2.6% Drops 31 Drop rate 7.8% Adjusted comp% 71.8% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 7.3% 3.0% 3.0% 9.5% 5.4% 5.6% 6.0% 9.6% 7.3% 5.1% 9.6% 6.3% 9.3% 12.1% 11.6% 8.2% 10.6% 11.3% 12.6% 6.5% 11.6% 12.5% 7.5% 8.3% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map 0.552 0.750 0.667 0.397 0.333 0.458 0.750 0.816 0.724 0.458 0.447 0.483 0.892 0.958 0.913 0.649 0.688 0.717 0.980 0.962 1.000 0.680 0.712 0.717
31 First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window 234 20 228 26 189 19 46 236 18 235 19 Att 357 40 Att 352 45 Att 293 36 68 Att 344 53 Att 340 57 % 66% 50% % 65% 58% % 65% 53% 68% % 69% 34% % 69% 33% Att% 90% 10% Att% 89% 11% Att% 74% 9% 17% Att% 87% 13% Att% 86% 14% 0.877 0.825 0.884 0.778 0.887 0.806 0.838 0.904 0.660 0.885 0.789 0.606 0.550 0.602 0.589 0.608 0.597 0.574 0.637 0.368 0.618 0.500 14 0 14 0 12 2 0 12 2 6 8 INTa % 3.9% 0.0% INTa % 4.0% 0.0% INTa % 4.1% 5.6% 0.0% INTa % 3.5% 3.8% INTa % 1.8% 14.0% Brandon Silvers Redshirt Senior, TROY, born 5/09/1994 Games Charted (12): @ Boise State, v. Alabama State, @ New Mexico State, v. First Read Beyond -23.7% -5.9% -9.3% -100.0% In Out -10.8% -12.0% -2.2% -100.0% Clean Adjusted Move Top Quartile Akron, @ LSU, v. South Alabama, @ Georgia State, v. Georgia Southern, v. Idaho, v. Texas State, @ Arkansas State, n. North Texas Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change -18.2% 4.9% -9.2% -5.5% -1.7% -5.6% 35.6% -100% Notable Measures Place Adjusted Platform YAC % Drop rate Approaching the Senior Bowl No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -50.5% -27.0% -42.2% 8.2% Bottom Quartile % attempt Beyond 1st R. % attempt Tight Window % Acc Pressured Acc/place Beyond LoS -51.8% -10.8% -19.0% 695.3% My concerns with Silvers are documented and well-founded (I believe). At the Senior Bowl, I hope Silvers can first show me just how transcendent his velocity is when he whips it. He may deliver the fastest ball in this class, which is always a positive though it isn t the whole conversation. Silvers biggest problem will come when his release is witnessed along the likes of Mayfield s, Rudolph s, and Lauletta s. His looping motion is reminiscent of Blake Bortles, and will raise a massive red flag for NFL decision-makers. Silvers will likely be unable to prove in the short week in Mobile that he can correct his motion with any consistency that s an in-house problem, for whatever team picks him up. I m not sure there s much he can show to alleviate this concern. Silvers is more dedicated to his first read (90% of attempts) than all other QBs charted. He will not, however, run an Air Raid offense in Mobile, and must show that he has the mind to handle a more traditional progression read while re-setting his base. If he cannot show some promise here, I m not sure if Silvers is worthy of a draft selection.
32 Mike White Redshirt Senior, WKU, born 3/25/1995 Games Charted (3): v. Florida Atlantic, v. Middle Tennessee, n. Georgia State The Skinny Mike White checks the common boxes: big frame, strong arm, can move around a bit. I don t think he s as mobile as he thinks he is, which leads to a high propensity of silly sacks taken. That s my biggest pause with White s game: what s between the ears. White has shown the ability to manipulate coverages with his eyes, and often has a good pre-snap plan for the coverage shell/route concept. If his initial read doesn t open, however, White lacks the poise and processing speed to consistently get to a secondary read/make a wise decision. 95% of White s tape is two plays: first read/checkdown, or frantic, hopeless improvisation that often goes awry. White hits enough marks in the tools department to warrant a late selection and further investigation, but his decision-making must improve drastically, in my opinion, before he can develop into a reliable passer. Chartable Attempts TD YAC 9 8 523 % INT INTa % YAC % 101 67.8% 2 5.4% 41.4% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 149 1,264 4.5.839.597 Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone 26 16 11 Att 39 28 19 Yards 273 199 98 % 66.7% 57.1% 57.9% Accuracy 0.872 0.821 0.842 Placement 0.615 0.571 0.658 Conversion 17 10 6 Conversion % 43.6% 35.7% 31.6% Adj. Conv. % 42.9% 37.9% 36.8% 1 1 1 % 2.6% 3.6% 5.3% Charting by Region 8/17, 367 yds Accuracy:.588 Placement:.412 2/4, 49 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.125 1/7, 26 yds Accuracy:.143 Placement:.143 11/28, 442 yds Accuracy:.538 Placement:.304 5/11, 69 yds Accuracy:.727 Placement:.455 7/10, 111 yds Accuracy:.9 Placement:.55 3/6, 51 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.5 15/27, 231 yds Accuracy:.852 Placement:.5 14/20, 106 yds Accuracy:.85 Placement:.6 27/33, 253 yds Accuracy:.939 Placement:.773 15/17, 149 yds Accuracy:.941 Placement:.765 56/70, 508 yds Accuracy:.914 Placement:.721 8/11, 39 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.636 2/4, 22 yds Accuracy:.75 Placement:.625 9/9, 22 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.778 19/24, 83 yds Accuracy:.958 Placement:.689 35/59, 581 yds Accuracy:.780 Placement:.525 38/51, 435 yds Accuracy:.922 Placement:.667 28/39, 248 yds Accuracy:.821 Placement:.615 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.816 Placement:.58
33 Redshirt Senior, WKU, born 3/25/1995 Exceptional Data Mike White Dropbacks 170 Scrambles 0 0.0% Sacks 13 7.6% Games Charted (3): v. Florida Atlantic, v. Middle Tennessee, n. Georgia State Batted 5 2.9% Throwaway 3 1.8% Drops 9 Drop rate 6.0% Adjusted comp% 73.8% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 11.4% 2.7% 4.7% 29.0% 3.9% 2.1% 7.4% 6.7% 4.0% 5.5% 8.8% 4.0% 13.4% 22.1% 11.4% 8.4% 20.0% 11.8% 7.4% 2.7% 6.0% 3.1% 1.7% 1.7% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map 0.588 1.000 0.143 0.412 0.125 0.143 0.727 0.900 1.000 0.455 0.550 0.500 0.850 0.939 0.941 0.600 0.773 0.765 1.000 0.750 1.000 0.636 0.625 0.778
34 Mike White Redshirt Senior, WKU, born 3/25/1995 Games Charted (3): v. Florida Atlantic, v. Middle Tennessee, n. Georgia State Top Quartile Notable Measures Adj. conv. % (Red Zone) Bottom Quartile Acc/place Tight Window Acc Adjusted Platform Acc/place Out of Place Beyond 1st R. First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window 84 17 90 11 78 8 15 79 22 90 11 Att 120 29 Att 121 28 Att 112 15 22 Att 112 37 Att 121 28 % 70% 59% % 74% 39% % 70% 53% 68% % 71% 59% % 74% 39% Att% 81% 19% Att% 81% 19% Att% 75% 10% 15% Att% 75% 25% Att% 81% 19% 0.867 0.724 0.917 0.500 0.866 0.600 0.864 0.866 0.757 0.893 0.607 0.621 0.500 0.653 0.357 0.589 0.567 0.659 0.621 0.527 0.649 0.375 5 3 6 2 4 2 2 5 3 3 5 INTa % 4.2% 10.3% INTa % 5.0% 7.1% INTa % 3.6% 13.3% 9.1% INTa % 4.5% 8.1% INTa % 2.5% 17.9% First Read Beyond -16.3% -16.4% -19.5% 148.3% In Out -47.2% -45.5% -45.3% 44.0% Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change Clean Adjusted Move -23.4% -2.1% -30.7% -0.3% -3.8% 11.8% 273.3% 154.5% Approaching the Senior Bowl No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -15.7% -12.6% -15.1% 81.6% -47.2% -32.0% -42.2% 620.2% As we can see from the Contextual Data: Change table, despite the fact that he may try to play like something else, Mike White is a pocket passer who is heavily reliant on his first read. Admittedly, White suffered behind a terrible offensive line at Western Kentucky. Perhaps Senior Bowl week, with less immediate pressure in his face, will allow White to move beyond his first read more peacefully, hang in the pocket more consistently, and play better overall. This is White s greatest hurdle to clear at the Senior Bowl: he must show that he can match a strong pre-snap mind with a passable post-snap mind; he must demonstrate that he can make decisions in real time under varying circumstances. I expect White to impress during the drills, undoubtedly: he has the arm and at least passable accuracy/placement to all levels of the field, including the deep area (with outliers in the data, due to small sample size, recognized). It s about the 11-on-11s for White; it s even about the game, dare I say it. He simply must play better ball when the circumstances around him aren t controlled.
35 Josh Allen Redshirt Junior, WYO, born 5/21/1996 Games Charted (10): @ Iowa, v. Oregon, v. Hawaii, v. Texas State, @ Utah State, @ Boise State, v. New Mexico, v. Colorado State, @ Air Force, n. Central Michigan The Skinny Josh Allen s sheet here only re-affirms what I already believed: you re drafting a player solely on a potential, no matter where you take Allen. Allen makes some jaw-dropping throws, and certainly has some generational talent. But the risks he takes when asked to process/decide beyond his first read or under pressure are absurd, and he cannot be trusted on an NFL field with his sporadic ball placement. On top of his poor decisionmaking as a passer, Allen scrambled on nearly 1 out of every 10 dropbacks and took a sack on 1 out of every 13. He simply is not yet an NFL quarterback just a dude with insane contact balance, nice speed, and a cannon attached to his right shoulder. Allen very well can become an NFL quarterback, but a team investing in Allen faces the two steepest challenges a young QB can face: improving decision-making (especially under pressure) and improving accuracy. Chartable Attempts TD YAC 15 18 503 % INT INTa % YAC % 130 59.1% 5 8.2% 31.8% Att Yards TD:INT Accuracy Placement 220 1,580 3.809.527 Situational Data 3rd Down 3rd (5+) Red Zone 39 33 14 Att 65 55 25 Yards 388 324 156 % 60.0% 60.0% 56.0% Accuracy 0.862 0.836 0.840 Placement 0.531 0.545 0.600 Conversion 25 19 8 Conversion % 38.5% 34.5% 32.0% Adj. Conv. % 38.9% 35.9% 27.8% 6 5 2 % 9.2% 9.1% 8.0% Charting by Region 7/14, 256 yds Accuracy:.714 Placement:.429 5/12, 156 yds Accuracy:.667 Placement:.417 1/16, 23 yds Accuracy:.375 Placement:.313 13/42, 435 yds Accuracy:.571 Placement:.381 7/19, 122 yds Accuracy:.684 Placement:.342 10/17, 169 yds Accuracy:.824 Placement:.559 20/30, 323 yds Accuracy:.867 Placement:.617 37/66, 614 yds Accuracy:.803 Placement:.523 15/24, 130 yds Accuracy:.917 Placement:.563 10/17, 69 yds Accuracy:.882 Placement:.559 29/40, 213 yds Accuracy:.9 Placement:.638 54/81, 412 yds Accuracy:.901 Placement:.599 11/12, 48 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.625 5/5, 37 yds Accuracy: 1 Placement:.7 10/14, 34 yds Accuracy:.786 Placement:.429 26/31, 119 yds Accuracy:.903 Placement:.548 40/69, 556 yds Accuracy:.826 Placement:.486 30/51, 431 yds Accuracy:.824 Placement:.539 60/100, 593 yds Accuracy:.79 Placement:.55 BEYOND LoS Accuracy:.794 Placement:.524
36 Redshirt Junior, WYO, born 5/21/1996 Exceptional Data Josh Allen Dropbacks 285 Scrambles 28 9.8% Sacks 22 7.7% Games Charted (10): @ Iowa, v. Oregon, v. Hawaii, v. Texas State, @ Utah State, @ Boise State, v. New Mexico, v. Colorado State, @ Air Force, n. Central Michigan Batted 5 1.8% Throwaway 10 3.5% Drops 10 Drop rate 4.5% Adjusted comp% 63.6% Target Heat Map Yardage Heat Map 6.4% 5.5% 7.3% 16.2% 9.9% 1.5% 8.6% 7.7% 13.6% 7.7% 10.7% 20.4% 10.9% 7.7% 18.2% 8.2% 4.4% 13.5% 5.5% 2.3% 6.4% 3.0% 2.3% 2.2% Accuracy Heat Map Placement Heat Map 0.714 0.667 0.375 0.429 0.417 0.313 0.684 0.824 0.867 0.342 0.559 0.617 0.917 0.882 0.900 0.563 0.559 0.638 1.000 1.000 0.786 0.625 0.700 0.429
Josh Allen Redshirt Junior, WYO, born 5/21/1996 Games Charted (10): @ Iowa, v. Oregon, v. Hawaii, v. Texas State, @ Utah State, @ Boise State, v. New Mexico, v. Colorado State, @ Air Force, n. Central Michigan Top Quartile % Notable Measures Bottom Quartile % attempt Tight Window Adj. conv. % (3rd) Acc/place Tight Window Acc/place Out of Acc/place Move Platform Acc/place Beyond 1st R. Acc/place Beyond LoS First Read Beyond In Out Clean Adjusted Move No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window 112 18 103 27 85 9 36 109 21 120 10 Att 175 45 Att 170 50 Att 143 20 57 Att 167 53 Att 184 36 % 64% 40% % 61% 54% % 59% 45% 63% % 65% 40% % 65% 28% Att% 80% 20% Att% 77% 23% Att% 65% 9% 26% Att% 76% 24% Att% 84% 16% 0.840 0.689 0.824 0.760 0.825 0.750 0.789 0.850 0.679 0.832 0.694 0.560 0.400 0.553 0.440 0.559 0.250 0.544 0.578 0.368 0.541 0.458 9 9 12 6 10 2 6 7 11 14 4 INTa % 5.1% 20.0% INTa % 7.1% 12.0% INTa % 7.0% 10.0% 10.5% INTa % 4.2% 20.8% INTa % 7.6% 11.1% First Read Beyond -37.5% -18.0% -28.6% 288.9% In Out -10.9% -7.7% -20.4% 70.0% Contextual Data: Raw Contextual Data: Change Clean Adjusted Move -24.3% 6.3% -9.1% -4.3% -55.3% -2.8% 43.0% 50.5% Approaching the Senior Bowl No Pressure Pressured Clear Tight Window -39.3% -20.1% -36.3% 395.1% -57.4% -16.5% -15.2% If you came to the Senior Bowl to see Josh Allen sling the football 70+ yards down the field, you re wasting your time. Sure, you ll see it but you re learning nothing new about the player. Be enraptured at your own risk. The best thing Allen can show us that s new is improved ball placement or, at least, passable consistency. His tape littered with pedestrian throws that went inexplicably awry, Allen would benefit greatly from a week of purely catchable footballs. I m sure every QB, with new WRs on a new stage, will have a few misses. As long as Allen doesn t have markedly more than the next guy, he ll take home a win. Sold to many scouts on his frame and athleticism, Allen better measure and look the part. The height and hand size are one thing there are some mobile QBs in Mobile this year (Baker Mayfield, Kurt Benkert), and Allen must blow them out of the water when on the move to retain his allure as a Newton/Wentz-esque athlete. At least, until the Combine comes around, and he gets tested for real. 46.0% Another big selling point for Allen that he needs to confirm: his personality. An affable young fella, Allen better show he can still command a huddle and demand respect, especially next to a character like Baker Mayfield. 37
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