Vail Town Council Vail Economic Advisory Council Quarterly Market/Research Report: - Orientation/History - Econometrics - Summer Review, Winter Outlook -Transient Inventory Study Synopsys Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 Ralf Garrison
Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. What s Next? 2
Who we are 3
MTNWEST Aspen Avon, Colorado Breckenridge Big Sky Beaver Creek Copper Gunnison/Crested Butte Keystone Mt Bachelor Mammoth Lakes Jackson Hole North Lake Tahoe Snowmass Steamboat Park City Area Summit County, CO Telluride Vail Winter Park
DEMAND Consumer Agent P.C. Mobile Cloud Call Center Shop/Buy Package/Sell Fulfill/ Process Customer Data Product Data SUPPLY A ATTRACTON Ski, Golf, Events Conference, Rentals T TRANSPORTATION Plane, Car, Boat 6
Vail Property Participation 24 properties representing 2,509 units 63% of total community census 7
4 Data Submitting Properties Arrabelle at Vail Square Destination Resorts Vail Vail Cascade Condos Vail Cascade Resort & Spa Evergreen Lodge at Vail Four Seasons Resort Vail Lion Square Lodge Lodge at Lionshead Lodge Tower Manor Vail Resort Montaneros Sitzmark Lodge Sonnenalp Resort of Vail The Sebastian The Wren Tivoli Lodge Vail International Vail Mountain Lodge Vail Racquet Club Vail Spa Condominiums Vail Marriott The Lodge at Vail The Ritz-Carlton Residences 8
Vail s DMX Participation CURRENT VAIL PRODUCTS OTHER PRODUCTS/SVCS Intelligence Pack Economic Report 2 x Annually Reservation Activity Outlook Council/EAC Seasonal Presentations Executive Summary Proposed: 2016 Condo vs. Hotel Group vs FIT Group vs. FIT ( Proposed) New Special Event Calendar Overlay Multi Destination Comparative Vail-Only Research Web Portal Multi Destination Comparative Further Grey Market Inventory Enhanced Daily Occupancy Report (DOR) Mid-month Summer (4 out of 6 months) Mid-month Winter Industry Overlay Event Calendar Overlay 45 Day Retail Report Guest Profiler School Break Report (Vail Resorts Only) Transient Inventory Study Economic Indicators & Summary Taxable Sales Report Presentations 9
Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. Miscellaneous 10
Econometrics Consistent Economic Recovery since 2009 Rising Tide for Discretionary Spending All Key Indicators have been positive But Recent Volatility is of concern Specifically: Slowing Growth Globally Geo-Political Uncertainty/Terrorism Strong Dollar is International Headwind Low Oil/Fuel is Good and Bad Future: Uncertain Warrants Attention
Index (Base year and calc. method varies by series) Econometrics 120 110 100 90 80 Average 6 mo Consumer Confidence Index January 2007 - November 2015 Monthly Values, 6-Month Aggregate Average and 12 Month Moving Average Trend Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board)) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Produced by DestiMetrics; Source: The Conference Board Month 12
Index Econometrics: CCI: 2014-2015 Growth slows, Volatility Rises.. 105 103.8 Consumer Confidence Index 2014/15 102.6 103 101.4 101.3 101 99.8 98.8 99 ` 97 99.1 95 94.3 94.6 93 93.1 91 91.0 90.4 89 87 85 Source: Conference Board Month 13
Econometrics Sep 2014: $1 CAD = $0.92 USD Sep 2014: 1 EUR = $1.30 USD Sep 2015: $1 CAD = $0.75 USD Sep 2015: 1 EUR = $1.10 USD +23% +18% 14
Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. Miscellaneous 15
Industry: Summer Benchmarking Index 70.0% Industry Summer Performance: 2008-2014 vs 2007 Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Industry % Change ADR vs 2007 Industry % Change Revenue vs 2007 60.0% 57.3% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 26.8% 21.6% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07 14 VS '07 15 VS '07 16
Vail: Summer Benchmarking Index 70.0% Vail Summer Performance: 2008-2014 vs 2007 Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Vail % Change ADR vs 2007 Vail % Change Revenue vs 2007 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 44.3% 30.0% 27.6% 20.0% 10.0% 13.3% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07 14 VS '07 15 VS '07 17
Summer 2015 May - October Year over Year % Change in INDUSTRY-WIDE Vail Occupancy 7% 3% ADR 4% 5% RevPAR 11% 8% 18
Occupancy Vail Daily Occupancy Report Summer 2015 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 100% 90% 80% 70% 2015 YTD vs. 2014 YTD as of 10/31 (22 properties) 2015 - as of 10/31/15 (22 properties included) 2014 - as of 10/31/14 (22 properties included) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 25-Apr-15 2-May-15 9-May-15 16-May-15 23-May-15 30-May-15 6-Jun-15 13-Jun-15 20-Jun-15 27-Jun-15 4-Jul-15 11-Jul-15 18-Jul-15 25-Jul-15 1-Aug-15 8-Aug-15 15-Aug-15 22-Aug-15 29-Aug-15 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 5-Sep-15 12-Sep-15 19-Sep-15 26-Sep-15 3-Oct-15 10-Oct-15 17-Oct-15 24-Oct-15 31-Oct-15 19
Occupancy Vail Daily Occupancy Report Summer 2015 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 100% 90% 2014 - historic actuals (22 properties included) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 25-Apr-15 2-May-15 9-May-15 16-May-15 23-May-15 30-May-15 6-Jun-15 13-Jun-15 20-Jun-15 27-Jun-15 4-Jul-15 11-Jul-15 18-Jul-15 25-Jul-15 1-Aug-15 8-Aug-15 15-Aug-15 22-Aug-15 29-Aug-15 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 5-Sep-15 12-Sep-15 19-Sep-15 26-Sep-15 3-Oct-15 10-Oct-15 17-Oct-15 24-Oct-15 31-Oct-15 20
Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. Miscellaneous 21
Industry: Winter Benchmarking Index 40.0% Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 Industry % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 Industry % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 7.1% 4.6% -2.5% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 14/15 vs '07/08 22
Vail: Winter Benchmarking Index Vail Winter Performance: 2008/09-2014/15 vs 2007/08 Benchmark 40.0% Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08 30.0% 20.0% 21.5% 20.4% 10.0% 0.0% -0.9% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 14/15 vs '07/08 23
Vail: Occupancy OTB Winter 15/16 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 Vail -8% Industry +1% 24
Vail: ADR OTB Winter 15/16 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 Vail +5% Industry +2% 25
Vail: RevPAR OTB Winter 15/16 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 Vail -3% Industry +3% 26
Occupancy Vail Daily Occupancy Report Winter 15/16 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 2015/16 YTD vs. 2014/15 YTD as of 10/31 (22 properties) 2015/16 - as of 10/31/15 (22 properties included) 2014/15 - as of 10/31/14 (22 properties included) 2014/15 - historic actuals (22 properties included) -50% 31-Oct-15 7-Nov-15 14-Nov-15 21-Nov-15 28-Nov-15 5-Dec-15 12-Dec-15 19-Dec-15 26-Dec-15 2-Jan-16 9-Jan-16 16-Jan-16 23-Jan-16 30-Jan-16 6-Feb-16 13-Feb-16 20-Feb-16 27-Feb-16 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 5-Mar-16 12-Mar-16 19-Mar-16 26-Mar-16 2-Apr-16 9-Apr-16 16-Apr-16 23-Apr-16 30-Apr-16 27
Occupancy Vail Daily Occupancy Report Winter 15/16 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 100% 90% 80% Easter 2015 70% 60% FBLA 2015 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2015 World Alpine Ski Championships 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 2015/16 YTD vs. 2014/15 YTD as of 10/31 (22 properties) 2015/16 - as of 10/31/15 (22 properties included) 2014/15 - as of 10/31/14 (22 properties included) Easter 2016 FBLA 2016 31-Oct-15 7-Nov-15 14-Nov-15 21-Nov-15 28-Nov-15 5-Dec-15 12-Dec-15 19-Dec-15 26-Dec-15 2-Jan-16 9-Jan-16 16-Jan-16 23-Jan-16 30-Jan-16 6-Feb-16 13-Feb-16 20-Feb-16 27-Feb-16 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 5-Mar-16 12-Mar-16 19-Mar-16 26-Mar-16 2-Apr-16 9-Apr-16 16-Apr-16 23-Apr-16 30-Apr-16 28
Occupancy Vail Daily Occupancy Report Winter 14/15 Data as of Oct. 31, 2015 100% 90% 2014/15 - historic actuals (22 properties included) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 31-Oct-15 7-Nov-15 14-Nov-15 21-Nov-15 28-Nov-15 5-Dec-15 12-Dec-15 19-Dec-15 26-Dec-15 2-Jan-16 9-Jan-16 16-Jan-16 23-Jan-16 30-Jan-16 6-Feb-16 13-Feb-16 20-Feb-16 27-Feb-16 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 5-Mar-16 12-Mar-16 19-Mar-16 26-Mar-16 2-Apr-16 9-Apr-16 16-Apr-16 23-Apr-16 30-Apr-16 29
Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. Miscellaneous 30
Purpose Track changes in inventory due to Vail s redevelopment Realize Vail s lodging supply & capacity Understand Inventory Mix: Condos vs. Hotels Lodging Quality Attempt to Quantify Rent By Owner Market Note: preliminary report presented in October then refined and now final. 31
YOY Change in Professionally 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 Managed Units NEW INVENTORY 1. Four Seasons 2. Ritz 3,706 Carlton 3. Solaris 4. Landmark 5. Lion Square 3,954 LOSS of 3,823 INVENTORY 1. Lionshead Inn 2. Roost Lodge Total: -152 3,892 NEW INVENTORY 1. The Lion Total: +79 2,500 2,000 Total: +248 2009 2011 2015 2016 1,500 1,000 500 NEW INVENTORY PRE 2009: 1. The Sebastian 2. One Willow Bridge Road 3. Arrabelle at Vail Square - 2009 2011 2015 2016 32
Units by Lodging Quality Assurance Rating (restated) 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Inspections conducted by Vail Valley Partnership. Based on individual interior unit inspections, not common areas or amenities Unique to Vail Valley and not universal 2,000 1,500 1,781 1,843 1,000 500 0 Platinum Gold Silver Bronze 199 0 33
Findings: Professionally Managed.. Evolution in in mix of properties Increase in Condos Decrease in Hotels Lionshead inventory continues to grow 93% are Platinum or Gold Comp Set: Aspen declining/snowmass steady Breckenridge Continues to grow inventory Increase in RBO units in both communities 34
Transient Inventory by Property/Unit Type Private Homes Rent By Owner Hotels Condos Time Share 35
Rent By Owner: Consolidator/Distributor:Major Players Rent By Owner Airbnb HomeAway.com VRBO 36
The Vacation Rental Landscape: Current Status: Complex Rent By Owner Airbnb Private Homes HomeAway.com VRBO Hotels Condos Time Share 37
Cautions! Grey Market is. Not black or white RBO market quantification is inconclusive Many RBO are occasional/inconsistent Duplication: Professionally managed units are listed Same unit listed on multiple sites Same unit listed by both homeowner & PMC Timeshare weeks are listed Accuracy of Information Units inaccurately listed as located in Vail Inconsistency of available warm beds BUT: New Opportunities Exist in 2016: Re-visit is being recommended. 38
RBO Units Counts 1,200 1,000 1,036 957 800 VRBO/Homeaway.com dominate, but are duplicative 600 Airbnb (whole unit) rentals are smaller but growing Other similar services are increasingly popular 400 383 200 0 VRBO.com HomeAway.com Airbnb.com 39
YOY Changes of units listed on VRBO.com All R.B.O channels have grown significantly But rate of growth appears to be slowing 1200 1000 1036 800 600 553 400 410 200 0 2009 2011 2015 40
Index 1. Introduction/Brief History 2. Econometrics 3. Summer 2015 Review 4. Winter 2015/16 Outlook 5. Transient Inventory Study 6. What s Next? 41
Wild Cards-What Next? 42
www.assembly.destimetrics.com 43
#DMXWinterOutlook Thank you! 44