Drought: What is the Status?

Drought: What is the Status? Nolan J. Doesken Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu Presented at 2005 Peak to Prairie Landscape Symposium, February 11, 2005, Colorado Springs, Colorado Prepared by Odie Bliss

Our climate is great sort of http://www.lensflare.com/~doubt/pics/garden/

Solar Energy Drives Our Climate Avondale, June 28 July 3, 2004 CoAgMet station, yearly cycle, any station Avondale, June 28 July 3, 2004

Colorado Springs Average Temperatures 90 Colorado Springs Average Temperatures (1971-2000) Temperature (degrees F) 80 70 60 50 40 30 Tmax Tmin Tmean 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

Comparison of Average Temperatures 100 Colorado Springs, Denver, Pueblo, Canon City and Salida Average Max and Min Temperatures (1971-2000 averages) CO Springs Denver Pueblo Canon City Buena Vista 90 80 Temperature (F) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

Pike s Peak vs. Colorado Springs Pike's Peak (1874-1888 averages) vs. Colorado Springs (1971-2000 averages) Max and Min Temperature Differences 85 75 65 Temperature (F) 55 45 35 25 15 5 Colorado Springs Pike's Peak -5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

Summer Temperature Perspective

Summer Temperature Perspective

Winter Temperature Perspective

Winter Temperature Perspective

2004 Daily Temperatures for Colorado Springs Colorado Springs Daily Temperatures for 2004 100 Tmax Tmin 80 Temperature (degrees F) 60 40 20 0-20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

Mean Monthly Pan Evaporation Average Monthly Pan Evaporation 14 Pueblo Cherry Creek Reservoir Lake George Note: Cherry Creek Reservoir values are estimated from reservoir losses from November through March 12 Evaporation (inches) 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

Colorado Springs and Pueblo Average Wind Speed Colorado Springs and Pueblo Average Monthly Wind Speed (mph) 14 Colorado Springs Pueblo Average Monthly Wind Speed (mph) 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

Precipitation The most variable of all!

Precipitation: Annual Climatology (1971-2000) Copyright 2004, Spatial Climate Analysis Service, Oregon State University http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/prism - Map created Feb 20 2004

Colorado Average Precipitation

Colorado Springs Monthly Average Precipitation (1971-2000) Colorado Springs Average Precipitation (1971-2000) 4.0 3.5 Precipitation (inches) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

Average Monthly Precipitation Compared to Mountain Locations Average Monthly Precip of Colorado Springs Compared to Mountain Locations 6 Colorado Springs Wolf Creek Pass Aspen Vail Steamboat 5 Precipitation (inches) 4 3 2 1 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

Average Monthly Precipitation Compared to Other Front Range Cities Average Monthly Precip of Colorado Springs Compared to Front Range Locations 4.0 Colorado Springs Trinidad Pueblo Denver Longmont 3.5 Precipitation (inches) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

Average Monthly Precipitation Compared to Eastern Plains Locations 4.0 3.5 Average Monthly Precip of Colorado Springs Compared to Eastern Plains Locations Colorado Springs Sterling Limon Burlington Lamar Rocky Ford Precipitation (inches) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

Comparing averages is instructive, but, are we ever average?

Colorado Springs Daily Precipitation Accumulation for 1999, 2002, and 2004 Colorado Springs Accumulated Daily Precipitation 30.0 1999 2002 2004 Normal 25.0 Precipitation (inches) 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month

A Few Storms Contribute The Majority of Our Annual Precipitation The difference between a very dry and very wet year is often just a few storms. March 2003 Snowstorm in Fort Collins

What Does History Show Us?

Statewide Mean Annual Temperature History Colorado Average Temperatures 50.0 Ave Annual Ave Temp 48.0 46.0 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 44.0 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 42.0 Temperature (degree F) 40.0 Year

Colorado Springs Average Temperature History Colorado Springs Mean Yearly Temperature 53 52 51 Temperature (F) 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year

2000 2005 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Colorado Springs Summer and Winter Average Temperatures Summer and Winter Average Temperatures Summer (Jun-Aug) Winter (Dec-Feb) 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year 1900 1895 Temperature (F)

Statewide Annual Precipitation History 25 Colorado Total Yearly Precipitation 20 15 10 5 1895 1901 1907 1913 1919 1925 1931 1937 1943 1949 1955 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003 Year http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/co.html Precipitation (inches)

30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Colorado Springs Precipitation History Colorado Springs Water Year Precipitation through 2004 5.95 1939 6.79 2002 2000 2003 Colorado College Airport 1997 1898 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 WATER YEAR 1895 1892 Precipitation (inches)

25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Colorado Springs Growing Season (May Sep) Precipitation History Colorado Springs Growing Season (May-Sep) 1939 3.17 1974 4.61 1892 1897 1902 1907 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Colorado College Airport Year Precipitation Totals (inches)

2003 Porphyry Creek April 1 Snowpack History Porphyry Creek Snow Course April 1 Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 Year SWE (inches)

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Arkansas River at Canon City Streamflow History Arkansas River at Canon City Streamflow Values through 2004 1993 1890 1893 1897 1900 1903 1906 1909 1912 1915 1918 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1996 1999 2002 Arkansas River 7-year running mean Average Year Streamflow (Cubic Ft per Second)

1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 3-Month SPI Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 3 month SPI (1890-2004) 1890 1909 1893 1896 1899 1902 1905 1912 1915 1918 1921 1924 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1947 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2004 Year Fraction (in percent)

1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 48-Month SPI Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 48 month SPI (1890-2004) 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Year Fraction (in percent)

OK then So what is the current status of Drought??

1999 Water Year Precipitation

September 1999 Drought Monitor Map

2000 Water Year Precipitation

October 2000 Drought Monitor Map

2001 Water Year Precipitation

October 2001 Drought Monitor Map

2002 Water Year Precipitation

October 2002 Drought Monitor Map

2002 Daily Streamflow 10000 9000 8000 Colorado River near Dotsero, CO 2002 Discharge Mean Discharge Discharge (1000 CFS) 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

2003 Water Year Precipitation

September 2003 Drought Monitor Map

2003 Daily Streamflow http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/daily_flow?co

Where Do We Stand Now?

2004 Water Year Precipitation

Growing Season (May-Sep) 2004 Precipitation as Percent of Average

US Drought Monitor, Oct 1, 2004

2004 Daily Streamflow http://water.usgs.gov/cgi-bin/daily_flow?co

WY2004 Temperature Departures Water Year 2004 8 6 Departure from average, degree F 4 2 0-2 -4-6 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Eastern Plains Foothills Mountains Western Valleys

Arkansas Basin Snowpack 2005 2003 2004 2002 http://www.co.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/data/basins.html

Reservoir Levels Colorado Statewide Reservoir Levels on October 1st for Years 1997-2004 140 133 130 120 122 Percent of Average 100 80 60 40 100 93 48 74 72 20 0 Oct 1. 1997 Oct 1. 1998 Oct 1. 1999 Oct 1. 2000 Oct 1. 2001 Oct 1. 2002 Oct 1. 2003 Oct 1. 2004

Colorado Springs 2005 Water Year Precipitation 30 Colorado Springs 2005 Water Year (Oct '04 - Jan '05) 30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1999 Min Year - 1939 2005 Water Year Accumulated Period of Record Average - 1893-2002 2002 Water Year Accumulated Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) 25 20 15 10 5 0 OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP

What Comes Next? Do We Really Know?

Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) Last update: 8 February 2005 http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/mei/

El Nino Forecast http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/swcasts/

Temperature Feb-Apr 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

Precipitation Feb-Apr 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

Temperature Mar-May 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

Precipitation Mar-May 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

Temperature Jun-Aug 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

Precipitation Jun-Aug 2005 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

For Colorado Springs, Average Precipitation = ~ 17 inches (WY2004 = 20.25 inches) Average Evaporation = ~ > 24 inches therefore, Drought is NEVER really over.

While we may not be able to predict it, at least we should know what we get!

CoAgMet Weather Data for Agriculture Automated weather stations with daily and hourly readings of: Temperature Humidity Wind Precipitation Solar energy Evapotranspiration http://www.coagmet.com

Colorado Climate Magazine Good bedtime reading about the climate of Colorado -- recent and historic $15/year subscription pays printing and mailing costs http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/magazine.php

Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu click on Drought then click on Presentations

El Paso County s RainCheck Program http://www.rain-check.org/

CoCoRaHS Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network http://www.cocorahs.org Over 1,000 volunteers participate in rain, hail and snow measurements. More accurate maps, verifies forecasting, radar research, crop damage, drought/flooding, educational purposes.

CoCo RaHS Volunteers of all ages helping scientists study storms. The exploration begins in your back yard!

What Does It Take To Be A Volunteer? Scientific curiosity. An interest in weather and an appreciation for water. Enough unobstructed space to install a rain gauge. Two minutes a day for a good cause.

CoCo RaHS Simple Tools to Study Rain Rain Gauge Example Station

CoCo RaHS Simple Tools To Study Hail Hail Pad Damaged Hail Pad

Fort Collins Daily Rainfall Examples

Colorado Hailstorm July 10, 2002, Parker, CO One of the culprits. Damaged Hailpad.

How many volunteers do we need? Our goal is at least one per square mile over urbanized areas. As many as we can find in rural areas.

For more information visit the CoCoRaHS Web site http://www.cocorahs.org Support for this project provided by Informal Science Education Program, National Science Foundation and many local charter sponsors.