Nebraska s Population and Economic Trends

Nebraska s Population and Economic Trends Jerry Deichert, David Drozd UNO Center for Public Affairs Research Twenty-first Annual Nebraska State Data Center Summer Conference August 17, 2010 CPACS Collaborating Commons--UNO Jerry Deichert, David Drozd, CPAR @ UNO

Nebraska Population and Economic Trends CPAR Reports Sources of Annual Data for Nebraska Estimates from the Census Bureau Bureau of Economic Analysis American Community Survey Changes 2000-09 Total population and components of change Age, race, and Hispanic/Latino Migration Focus Information from state and county IRS migration files Economic Trends Per capita income and employment

CPAR Reports 2008 Nebraska Population Report http://www.unomaha.edu/~cpar/documents/nebpopulation_08.pdf Nebraska Historical Population Report, Sept. 2007 http://www.unomaha.edu/cpar/documents/historical_pop_report.pdf Nebraska Birth Report, July 2008 http://www.unomaha.edu/cpar/documents/birthreport.pdf Nebraska Migration Report, October 2009 http://www.unomaha.edu/cpar/documents/2008statemigrationsummary.pdf

Estimates from the Census Bureau The Population Estimates Program releases population and housing units estimates throughout the year. In general, the most current estimates released in a given year refer to the population on July 1 of the previous year. Data are provided for each year since the most recent Census. Most recent release supersedes data from prior releases. http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php

Nebraska s Population and Economic Trends Main population trends Population is becoming more and more concentrated in state s most populous counties. Births have been increasing since 1994 and should continue a general uptrend until 2015. Net migration has been slightly negative since 2000--improving recently. Population is getting older and will continue to age. Population is becoming more racially and ethnically diverse (younger population). Economic trends--per capita income & employment Per capita income fluctuates between 90% and 95% of US average. Recently metro has been decreasing in relation to US while nonmetro increasing. Employment is growing more slowly than US and growing faster than population.

Population and Population Change Jerry Deichert, David Drozd, CPAR @ UNO

State Population 1990 to 2000 Between 1990 and 2000 the state grew at 8.4 percent 1990 s population growth largest since 1910-20 2000 to 2009 State added 85,354 persons between April 1, 2000 and July 1, 2009 (about 5.5 percent decade rate) Growth rate ranked 33th in the US 2008 to 2009 Added 14,670 persons The 2008-09 growth is the largest in percentage and number since 1995-96 Growth rate ranked 24th in the US

Nebraska Population Change by Decade: 1910 to 2009 10 8.7 8.4 8 6 6.3 6.5 5.2 5.7 5.5 4 Percentage Change 2 0-2 0.7 1910-20 1920-30 1930-40 1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-09 (10-year rate) 0.5-4 -4.5-6 Source: US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses and Annual Estimates

Population 2,000,000 Nebraska Population and Population Change, 1925-2009 Population Change 50,000 1,800,000 40,000 1,600,000 30,000 1,400,000 20,000 1,200,000 10,000 1,000,000 0 800,000-10,000 600,000 1985-1987 -20,000 400,000-30,000 200,000-40,000 0-50,000 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Population Change Population Sources: Nebraska Health and Human Services System, Vital Statistics; and US Census Bureau, Annual Estimates

County Population 1990 to 2000 40 counties added population or were unchanged Nebraska s population is becoming more and more concentrated in its most populous counties Both metropolitan and nonmetropoltian counties added population Counties with no city above 2,500 continued to decline but at a slower rate 2000 to 2009 Only 16 counties added population 2000 to 2009 Sarpy, Johnson, Lancaster, Douglas, Buffalo, Hall, Adams, and Washington grew 5.0 percent or more Metropolitan counties added population, but nonmetropolitan counties lost population Metropolitan 11.8% Nonmetropolitan -3.4% Micropolitan 1.9% Largest city 2,500 to 9,999 persons -6.9% Largest city under 2,500 persons -11.8% Douglas, Lancaster, and Sarpy accounted for 52.6 percent of Nebraska s population in 2009

Population of Nebraska Counties By Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Status (2003 Definitions): 1969-2009 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 950,000 900,000 Persons 850,000 800,000 750,000 700,000 650,000 600,000 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Metro Nonmetro Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System, and US Census Bureau, Annual Population Estimates

Population of Nebraska Counties By Micropolitan Status (2003 Definitions) and Size of Largest City 2,500-9,999 and Under 2,500: 1969-2009 450,000 400,000 350,000 Persons 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Micro 2,500-9,999 <2,500 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System, and US Census Bureau, Annual Population Estimates

Natural Change Natural Change = Births - Deaths Jerry Deichert, David Drozd, CPAR @ UNO

Natural Change 1990 to 2000 Births leveled off and then increased slightly Birth rates by age of mother increased slightly from 1990 Deaths increased slightly 41 counties had more deaths than births 2000 to 2009 Births in 2007, 2008, and 2009 were similar and were the highest since 1982 26,935 in 2007; 26,992 in 2008; and 26,931 in 2009 Recent peak was 27,335 in 1980 Number of deaths declined slightly in 2009 Natural increase higher than any time during the 1990s 52 counties had more births than deaths, and 41 had more deaths than births

Nebraska Natural Population Change (Births - Deaths) by Decade: 1930 to 2009 16.0 15.2 14.0 12.0 10.6 10.4 10.0 Percentage Change 8.0 6.0 8.2 6.6 6.9 5.4 7.1 4.0 2.0 0.0 1930-40 1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-09 (10-year rate) Sources: Nebraska Health and Human Services System, Vital Statistics; and US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses and Annual Estimates

Nebraska Births and Deaths, 1925-2009 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Persons Births Deaths Natural Change Source: Nebraska Health and Human Services System, Vital Statistics

Net Migration Jerry Deichert, David Drozd, CPAR @ UNO

Net Migration 1990 to 2000 Added about 48,000 persons during the decade (3.1 percent) Decade with net inmigration for the first time in 6 decades International greater than domestic 42 counties had net inmigration or no net outmigration 2000 to 2009 Lost 9,156 persons since 2000 for a decade rate of -0.6 percent Net inmigration during 2008-09 State still experiencing international inmigration during each year About 3,300 per year State experiencing domestic outmigration for each year, but has improved by 2,300 in each of the past two years Only 8 counties had net inmigration (2000-09) Johnson, Sarpy, Lancaster, Washington, and Buffalo were above 2.0 percent

Nebraska Net Migration by Decade: 1930 to 2009 4.0 3.1 2.0 0.0 Migration Rate (Percent) -2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0-5.2-0.9-6.4-0.6-10.0-9.8-8.7-12.0-14.0-12.7 1930-40 1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-09 (10-year rate) Sources: US Census Bureau, Decennial Censuses and Annual Estimates; and Nebraska Health and Human Services System, Vital Statistics

40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0-10,000-20,000-30,000-40,000-50,000-60,000 Nebraska Components of Population Change, 1930-2009 1991-1999 Persons 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 Net Migration Natural Change

Cities and Towns Jerry Deichert, David Drozd, CPAR @ UNO

Cities/Towns (2000-2009) Nearly 80.0 percent of Nebraska s population lives in an incorporated city or town 79.4 percent in 2009, up from 77.0 percent in 2000 Population in Nebraska cities and towns grew 7.7 percent Population outside of cities and towns lost 4.3 percent Median size town is 313 persons Hadar (Pierce County) and Long Pine (Brown County) Mean (average) size town is 2,691 Ashland Omaha went from 44th largest city in US in 2000 to 40th largest in 2009

Cities/Towns (2000-2009) Highest percentage growth Percentage City/Town County Change Gretna Sarpy 186.0 Terrytown* Scotts Bluff 87.2 Waterloo Douglas 84.1 Hickman Lancaster 51.8 Papillion Sarpy 48.4 La Vista Sarpy 44.3 Bennet Lancaster 35.4 Waverly Lancaster 34.9 Raymond Lancaster 26.9 Denton Lancaster 24.9 *Entirely due to annexation

Population Change by Size of City/Town: 2000 to 2009 Size class Percent age Change Omaha 16.6 Lincoln 12.6 10,000 to 50,000 9.6 5,000 to 9,999-3.1 2,500 to 4,999-6.3 1,000 to 2,499 0.2 (-4.4 without Gretna) 500 to 999-5.4 250 to 499-6.9 100 to 249-7.7 less than 100-9.0

Age Structure Jerry Deichert, David Drozd, CPAR @ UNO

2009 Nebraska Population by Sex and Five-Year Age Group: Total Population 85+ 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Percent of Total Population Green lines depict the depression cohort; red checker shows the "baby boom"; Source: Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau, released 6-10-10 pink represents the "baby boom echo"; pink crosshatch shows the "3rd wave"

Percentage Change for 5-year Age Groups in Nebraska: 2000 to 2009 85 years and over 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years Total Population -17.7-15.9-8.6-5.9-6.1-4.8-3.3 1.0 4.6 5.0 7.5 16.5 11.0 12.7 16.9 15.1 22.3 38.9 45.3-20.0-10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 Percent Change

Percentage Change in Nebraska Population By 5-Year Age Group: 2000-30 Total 17.2 85 & older 72.4 80-84 64.7 75-79 70.5 70-74 65-69 79.0 79.2 60-64 49.8 55-59 26.9 Age group 50-54 45-49 40-44 -9.6 0.1 3.9 35-39 -8.5 30-34 2.6 25-29 20-24 13.3 12.8 15-19 4.3 10-14 8.2 5-9 12.0 Under 5 21.8-20.0-10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 Percent Projections by Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO, Aug. 2008

Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin Jerry Deichert, David Drozd, CPAR @ UNO

Race and Hispanic/Latino Origin Change 2000-2009 Total 5.0 percent White alone 3.2 percent African-American or Black alone 19.1 percent American Indian and Alaska Native alone 27.9 percent Asian alone 35.4 percent Nat. Hawaiian Pac. Islander alone 69.1 percent Hispanic/Latino Origin 59.4 percent White non-hispanic 0.1 percent Minority 38.8 percent In 2009, Minority population was 16.5 percent of total Up from 12.7 in 2000 and 7.4 percent in 1990 Minority population is much younger Relatively more under 40 Relatively fewer 40+

Age Group 2009 Nebraska Population by Five-Year Age Group: Non-White or Hispanic/Latino (Minority Population) as a Percent of State Total 85+ 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 10 to 14 5 to 9 Under 5 Total 3.5 4.5 5.4 6.3 6.9 7.8 8.6 10.2 12.1 16.7 16.5 18.0 19.7 20.7 19.8 20.2 23.4 26.6 29.5 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Percent of Total Population Compiled and Prepared by: David Drozd, Source: Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau, released 6-10-10 Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO

Population Summary State population is expected to increase about 4.5 to 5 percent per decade until 2030 (0.5 percent per year). The trend of Nebraska s population becoming concentrated in its most populous counties is expected to continue. Micropolitan counties (those nonmetro counties with a town of 10,000 persons) are expected to continue their growth. Together Douglas, Sarpy, and Lancaster Counties account for somewhat more than half of the state s population, and this proportion gradually will increase (about 0.4 percentage points per year in the 2000s-see handout).

Population Summary Since 2000, the state has experienced a slight outmigration, and it is expected to be less than 1 percent for the decade. Births will peak in the mid 2010s as the baby boom echo pass through their peak child bearing years and as the number of young Latina women increase through immigration. The state s racial and ethnic diversity will increase. Most of the growth in the state s population will be in its minority populations as the white, non-latino will grow slowly if at all. The minority population will continue to be much younger.

Migration Focus A. Data from Census Estimates Since 2000 B. State IRS Tax Filing Data Since 1989 C. County IRS Tax Filing Data Since 1999 Jerry Deichert, David Drozd, CPAR @ UNO

Comparison of Domestic and International Migration for Nebraska: 2001 to 2009 6,000 International migration has been quite steady, bringing in about 3,100 persons per year. 3,000 Level of Migration (persons) 0-3,000-6,000 Domestic migration has improved in recent years, nearly becoming a net inmigration. -9,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Source: Population Estimates Program, U.S. Census Bureau, released 12-23-2009 Domestic International

Comparison of Nebraska Inflows, Outflows, and Net Person Movement Based on IRS Tax Filings: 1989-2008 50,000 10,000 45,000 8,000 Number of Exemptions (proxy for persons) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Nebraska's net movement of 10,000 persons domestically in 2008-6,000 was the best since 1996, 5,000 which was the last time Nebraska had a net gain of -8,000 persons from other states. 0-10,000 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Source: IRS State-to- State Migration Files Total Inflow Total Outflow Total Net Flow 6,000 4,000 2,000 0-2,000-4,000 Net Person Movement Compiled and Prepared by: David Drozd, CPAR @ UNO 10-19-09

Number of Tax Return Exemptions for Movers between Nebraska and Michigan: 1989 to 2008 1,000 Exemptions (proxy for persons) 0-1,000 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Source: IRS State-to-State Migration Files Total Inflow Total Outflow Total Net Flow Compiled and Prepared by: David Drozd, CPAR @ UNO 10-19-09

Number of Tax Return Exemptions for Movers between Nebraska and Florida: 1989 to 2008 2,000 Exemptions (proxy for persons) 1,000 0-1,000 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Source: IRS State-to-State Migration Files Total Inflow Total Outflow Total Net Flow Compiled and Prepared by: David Drozd, CPAR @ UNO 10-19-09

Number of Tax Return Exemptions for Movers between Nebraska and Missouri: 1989 to 2008 4,000 3,000 Exemptions (proxy for persons) 2,000 1,000 0-1,000 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Source: IRS State-to-State Migration Files Total Inflow Total Outflow Total Net Flow Compiled and Prepared by: David Drozd, CPAR @ UNO 10-19-09

Number of Tax Return Exemptions for Movers between Nebraska and South Dakota: 1989 to 2008 3,000 2,000 Exemptions (proxy for persons) 1,000 0-1,000 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year Source: IRS State-to-State Migration Files Total Inflow Total Outflow Total Net Flow Compiled and Prepared by: David Drozd, CPAR @ UNO 10-19-09

Comparison of Migration within Nebraska and Out-of-State for Lancaster County based on Changes in IRS Tax Filing Locations: 1999 to 2008 1,500 1,289 1,090 1,274 1,174 Net Migration based on Number of Exemptions Changing Filing Locations 1,000 500 0-500 -1,000-1,500-1,123-1,171-693 240-1,299 606-1,254 849 673 633-1,145-1,362-2,000-1,791 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 Tax Filing Years Source: IRS migration files, downloaded from Missouri State Data Center website Same St. Different St. -1,835 Compiled and Prepared by: David Drozd, Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO

Comparison of Migration within Nebraska and Out-of-State for Douglas County based on Changes in IRS Tax Filing Locations: 1999 to 2008 1,000 Net Migration based on Number of Exemptions Changing Filing Locations 500 0-500 -1,000-1,500-2,000-62 -19-2,141-2,126-278 -1,793 152 31-119 -55-404 -415-537 -423-597 -812-883 -1,166-2,500 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 Tax Filing Years Source: IRS migration files, downloaded from Missouri State Data Center website Same St. Different St. Compiled and Prepared by: David Drozd, Center for Public Affairs Research, UNO

Employment and Per Capita Personal Income Jerry Deichert, David Drozd, CPAR @ UNO

Employment Employment grew about the same rate as the US in the 1970s, more rapidly in the early 1990s, and more slowly since 1995. Since 1969, the rate of growth in Nebraska s employment is 3.7 times larger than its population.

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System

Jobs in Nebraska Counties By Metropolitan and Micropolitan Status (2003 Definitions) and Size of Largest City 2,500-9,999 and Under 2,500: 1969-2008 600,000 500,000 400,000 Jobs 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Metro Micro 2,500-9,999 <2,500 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System

Per Capita Income Per capita income declined in relation to the US between 1970 and 1980 and has fluctuated between 90 and 95 percent of the national average since then. Recently, metropolitan per capita income has been decreasing in relation to US while all nonmetro areas have been increasing.

110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 Per Capita Personal Income of Nebraska Counties As a Percentage of the U.S. By Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Status (2003 Definitions): 1969-2008 US = 100 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Nebraska Metro Nonmetro Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System Percentage of U.S.

Per Capita Personal Income of Nebraska Counties As a Percentage of the U.S.By Metropolitan and Micropolitan Status (2003 Definitions) and Size of Largest City 2,500-9,999 and Under 2,500: 1969-2008 110.0 105.0 100.0 US = 100 Percentage of U.S. 95.0 90.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 70.0 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Metro Micro 2,500-9,999 <2,500 Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System

Contact Us With Questions David Drozd (402) 554-2132 ddrozd@unomaha.edu Jerry Deichert (402) 554-2134 jdeicher@unomaha.edu Also view the CPAR website http://www.unomaha.edu/~cpar/