Wolfgang Taucher - Mathias Vogl - Peter Webinger DEMOGRAPHICS Middle East & North Africa BM.I REPUBLIC OF AUSTRIA FEDERAL MINISTRY OF THE INTERIOR.BFA REPUBLIC OF AUSTRIA FEDERAL OFFICE FOR IMMIGRATION AND ASYLUM
Wolfgang Taucher - Mathias Vogl - Peter Webinger DEMOGRAPHICS Middle East & North Africa BM.I REPUBLIC OF AUSTRIA FEDERAL MINISTRY OF THE INTERIOR.BFA REPUBLIC OF AUSTRIA FEDERAL OFFICE FOR IMMIGRATION AND ASYLUM
Contents Preface Wolfgang Taucher, Mathias Vogl, Peter Webinger...5 North Africa...6 Morocco...8 Algeria...10 Tunisia...12 Libya...14 Egypt...16 Middle East...18 Turkey...20 Syria...22 Jordan...24 Iraq...26 Iran (Islamic Republic of)...28 Afghanistan...30 Pakistan...32 Sources...35 Imprint...37
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Preface The latest edition of our regiones et res publicae series takes a look at the demographic trends in the Middle East and North Africa. As this region is home to some of the main source countries of migrants, monitoring population trends as one of the key determinants of future migration flows is essential. Demography is, of course, just one indicator of potential migration flows. Rapidly growing, young populations do require significant economic growth to allow the successive cohorts of young adults to enter the labor markets and become economically self-sustaining. Such a concurrence would allow reaping a demographic dividend, while the absence of economic growth would in turn leave large segments of the population without any perspectives. North Africa and the Middle East are essentially intertwined with the European Union when it comes to migration as transit as well of countries of origin. The understanding of the population dynamics of this region of course in synopsis with economic and labor market trends will help comprehend current dynamics and potential future developments. This edition was published in collaboration with the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD). Wolfgang Taucher Mathias Vogl Peter Webinger Director of the Federal Office Director-General for Deputy Director-General for Immigration and Asylum Legal Affairs for Legal Affairs Austrian Federal Ministry Austrian Federal Ministry Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior of the interior of the interior 6
7 NORTH AFRICA
Total population 34 803 000 37 071 000 39 101 000 40 874 000 Age distribution 0 19 years 20 64 years 65+ years Gender ratio 50,52% 49,48% 50,43% 49,57% 50,38% 49,62% 50,36% 49,64% 2015 2020 2025 2030 6,40% 7,62% 9,38% 11,23% 57,44% 57,61% 57,31% 57,17% 36,16% 34,77% 33,32% 31,60% 8 female male
9 MOROCCO
Total population 34 803 000 37 071 000 39 101 000 40 874 000 Age distribution 0 19 years 20 64 years 65+ years Gender ratio 50,52% 49,48% 50,43% 49,57% 50,38% 49,62% 50,36% 49,64% 2015 2020 2025 2030 6,40% 7,62% 9,38% 11,23% 57,44% 57,61% 57,31% 57,17% 36,16% 34,77% 33,32% 31,60% 10 female male
11 ALGERIA
2015 2020 2025 2030 Total population 39 872 000 43 333 000 46 308 000 48 822 000 Age distribution 4,89% 6,86% 7,92% 9,26% 48,28% 56,75% 55,72% 56,59% 46,82% 36,40% 36,36% 34,15% 0 19 years 20 64 years 65+ years Gender ratio 49,50% 50,50% 49,50% 50,50% 49,50% 50,50% 49,52% 50,48% 12 female male
13 TUNISIA
2015 2020 2025 2030 Total population 11 274 000 11 903 000 12 432 000 12 842 000 Age distribution 7,61% 8,83% 10,46% 12,42% 61,36% 60,42% 59,06% 58,22% 31,03% 30,75% 30,48% 29,35% 0 19 years 20 64 years 65+ years Gender ratio 50,59% 49,41% 50,57% 49,43% 50,57% 49,43% 50,57% 49,43% 14 female male
15 LIBYA
2015 2020 2025 2030 Total population 6 235 000 6 662 000 7 032 000 7 342 000 Age distribution 4,32% 4,64% 5,24% 6,49% 58,47% 59,81% 61,22% 62,53% 37,21% 35,55% 33,54% 30,99% 0 19 years 20 64 years 65+ years Gender ratio 49,51% 50,49% 49,62% 50,38% 49,75% 50,25% 49,89% 50,11% female male 16
17 EGYPT
2015 2020 2025 2030 Total population 93 778 000 102 941 000 111 471 000 119 746 000 Age distribution 5,06% 5,33% 5,89% 6,57% 53,12% 52,90% 53,14% 53,76% 41,81% 41,77% 40,97% 39,67% 0 19 years 20 64 years 65+ years Gender ratio 49,45% 50,55% 49,44% 50,56% 49,47% 50,53% 49,51% 50,49% female male 18
19 MIDDLE EAST
2015 2020 2025 2030 Total population 93 778 000 102 941 000 111 471 000 119 746 000 Age distribution 5,06% 5,33% 5,89% 6,57% 53,12% 52,90% 53,14% 53,76% 41,81% 41,77% 40,97% 39,67% 0 19 years 20 64 years 65+ years Gender ratio 49,45% 50,55% 49,44% 50,56% 49,47% 50,53% 49,51% 50,49% female male 20
21 TURKEY
2015 2020 2025 2030 Total population 78 271 000 83 836 000 86 125 000 88 417 000 Age distribution 7,80% 8,82% 10,36% 12,08% 58,09% 59,24% 59,86% 59,91% 34,11% 31,94% 29,78% 28,00% 0 19 years 20 64 years 65+ years Gender ratio 50,81% 49,19% 50,68% 49,32% 50,77% 49,23% 50,81% 49,19% female male 22
23 SYRIA
2015 2020 2025 2030 Total population 18 735 000 18 924 000 23 411 000 26 608 000 Age distribution 4,04% 4,90% 5,40% 6,31% 46,34% 48,57% 53,58% 55,92% 49,62% 46,53% 41,02% 37,76% 0 19 years 20 64 years 65+ years Gender ratio 49,42% 50,58% 49,66% 50,34% 49,86% 50,14% 49,87% 50,13% female male 24
25 JORDAN
2015 2020 2025 2030 Total population 9 159 000 10 209 000 10 610 000 11 122 000 Age distribution 3,76% 3,94% 4,42% 5,40% 50,14% 51,89% 53,61% 55,06% 46,09% 44,17% 41,97% 39,53% 0 19 years 20 64 years 65+ years Gender ratio 49,33% 50,67% 49,34% 50,66% 49,21% 50,79% 49,05% 50,95% female male 26
27 IRAQ
2015 2020 2025 2030 Total population 36 116 000 41 503 000 47 200 000 53 298 000 Age distribution 3,07% 3,36% 3,37% 3,58% 45,73% 46,62% 47,73% 48,90% 51,19% 50,02% 48,91% 47,53% 0 19 years 20 64 years 65+ years Gender ratio 49,40% 50,60% 49,35% 50,65% 49,33% 50,67% 49,31% 50,69% female male 28
29 IRAN
2015 2020 2025 2030 Total population 79 360 000 83 587 000 86 730 000 88 863 000 Age distribution 5,03% 6,26% 7,89% 9,88% 64,41% 63,91% 63,62% 64,49% 30,55% 29,83% 28,50% 25,63% 0 19 years 20 64 years 65+ years Gender ratio 49,67% 50,33% 49,74% 50,26% 49,81% 50,19% 49,87% 50,13% female male 30
31 AFGHANISTAN
2015 2020 2025 2030 Total population 33 736 000 38 055 000 42 388 000 46 700 000 Age distribution 2,49% 2,69% 2,91% 3,18% 41,28% 44,04% 47,37% 50,78% 56,23% 53,28% 49,72% 46,04% 0 19 years 20 64 years 65+ years Gender ratio 48,45% 51,55% 48,54% 51,46% 48,62% 51,38% 48,71% 51,29% female male 32
33 PAKISTAN
2015 2020 2025 2030 Total population 189 381 000 208 362 000 226 768 000 244 248 000 Age distribution 4,48% 4,55% 4,95% 5,53% 50,28% 51,83% 52,71% 54,12% 45,24% 43,63% 42,35% 40,35% 0 19 years 20 64 years 65+ years Gender ratio 48,63% 51,37% 48,64% 51,36% 48,66% 51,34% 48,70% 51,30% female male 34
Sources United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2017). World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, DVD Edition. 36
Imprint Published by Wolfgang Taucher Mathias Vogl Peter Webinger Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior Herrengasse 7 I 1010 Vienna I Austria BFA-Staatendokumentation@bmi.gv.at Editors Alexander Schahbasi, Thomas Schrott I Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior Research Martin Hofmann I International Centre for Migration Policy Development Editorial Team Sarah Kratschmayr, Marina Prohaska I Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior Layout Natalie Raskovic, Martin Angel I Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior Print Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior Disclaimer The content of this publication was researched and edited with utmost care. Liability for the correctness, completeness and up-to-dateness of contents cannot be incurred. The Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior, the publishers, editors and individuals involved in the publication do not assume any liability for possible damages or consequences arising from the usage, application or dissemination of the contents offered. The responsibility for the correctness of information provided by third parties lies with respective publishers and thus excludes liability by the publishers and editors of this volume. The contents of this publication do not represent positions of the Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior or the editors. The boundaries on the maps used in this publication do not imply official endorsement of acceptance. The publication does not claim completeness and is based on the quoted sources. Copyright This publication and all the data therein are protected by copyright. All rights of utilization are reserved to the Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior. Reproduction and distribution in any possible way for commercial and non-commercial usage are prohibited without prior written permission by the editors. ISBN 978-3-903109-09-4 2018 Austrian Federal Ministry of the Interior 38
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regiones et res publicae - Country Analysis Reports 1 2 SOMALIA Security, Minorities & Migration AFGHANISTAN 2014 and beyond 3 PAKISTAN Challenges & Perspectives 4 THE KURDS History - Religion - Language - Politics 5 SYRIA, IRAQ & AFGHANISTAN Mapping migration, social media and topography 6 DEMOGRAPHICS Middle East & North Africa www.bmi.gv.at www.staatendokumentation.at ISBN 978-3-903109-09-4