Drought and the Climate of the Ogallala Aquifer Nolan J. Doesken Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Presented at Ogallala Symposium, Wray, Colorado February 20, 2006 Prepared by Odie Bliss
Drought Monitor Map
But what does this mean? We need some perspective.
Map of average July max temperatures (we've used this one before)
Class A Pan Evaporation (May-Oct) 50 55 52 56 60 68 64 60 56 From NOAA Tech Report NWS 33
Burlington Temperatures Burlington, CO, Average Temperatures Mean Max. Temperature (F) Mean Temperature (F) Mean Min. Temperature (F) 100 90 80 Temperature (deg F) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
Idalia CoAgMet Reference Evaportranspiration (ET) Idalia Average Reference Evapotranspiration (ET) Values 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 ET (In) 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Month
Reference Evapotranspiration (ET) 0.6 Kirk, Colorado, Reference Evapotranspiration (ET) for 2003 0.5 Evapotranspiration (ET) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03
COLORADO, KANSAS AND NEBRASKA Average annual precipitation
Monthly Average Precipitation for selected stations in the Ogallala Aquifer 4.0 Ogallala Aquifer Monthly Average Precipitation (1971-2000) Precipitation (inches) 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 N Platte, NE Goodland, KS Holyoke, CO Holly, CO 0.5 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
2000 2005 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 But are we ever "Average"? But are we ever "Average"? Burlington Water Year (Oct-Sep) Precipitation from 1892-2005 1995 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 YEAR 1895 1890 Precipitation (inches)
Climate Divisions Kansas Colorado
Kansas Basin (CO-03) Annual Precipitation Totals Colorado (Div 3) Annual Precipitation Totals 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Precipitation (inches)
Kansas Northwest Basin (KS-04) Annual Precipitation Totals Kansas (Div 4) Annual Precipitation Total 35 30 25 20 15 Precipitation (inches) 10 5 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 48-Month SPI Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 48 month SPI (1890-2005) 1890 1892 1895 1897 1900 1902 1905 1907 1980 1910 1912 1915 1917 1920 1922 1925 1927 1930 1932 1935 1937 1940 1942 1945 1947 1950 1952 1955 1957 1960 1962 1965 1967 1970 1972 1975 1977 1982 1985 1987 1990 1992 1995 1997 2000 2002 2005 Year Fraction (in percent)
Where do we stand now, and how did we get there?
Drought Monitor Map
1999 Water Year Precipitation
2000 Water Year Precipitation
2001 Water Year Precipitation
2002 Water Year Precipitation
2003 Water Year Precipitation
2004 Water Year Precipitation
2005 Water Year Precipitation as Percent of Average
Akron Accumulated Precipitation Deficit 4.0 Akron 4E Accumulated Precipitation Deficit since 1990 compared to 1971-2000 average 2.0 Precipitation (inches) 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year
Cheyenne Wells Accumulated Precipitation 16.0 14.0 Cheyenne Wells Accumulated Precipitation Deficit since 1990 compared to 1971-2000 average 12.0 Precipitation (inches) 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year
Holyoke Accumulated Precipitation 6.0 Holyoke, Colorado Accumulated Precipitation Deficit since 1990 compared to 1971-2005 average 4.0 Precipitation (Inches) 2.0 0.0-2.0-4.0-6.0-8.0-10.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year
10 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Eastern Plains Temperature Eastern Plains Temperature Departures from Average Eastern Plains Departure from Average (deg F) from October 2000 to January 2006 Temperature Departure (Deg F) Oct-00 Dec-00 Feb-01 Apr-01 Jun-01 Aug-01 Oct-01 Dec-01 Feb-02 Apr-02 Jun-02 Aug-02 Oct-02 Dec-02 Feb-03 Apr-03 Jun-03 Aug-03 Oct-03 Dec-03 Feb-04 Apr-04 Jun-04 Aug-04 Oct-04 Dec-04 Feb-05 Apr-05 Jun-05 Aug-05 Oct-05 Dec-05
1999 2002 2005 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 Akron Spring Temperatures Akron Spring Temperatures Akron Average Temperatures Spring (Mar-May) 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1918 Temperature (deg F)
2002 2005 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 Akron Summer Temperatures Akron Summer Temperatures Akron Average Temperatures Summer (Jun-Aug) 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 1918 Temperature (deg F)
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 44 42 40 Akron Fall Temperatures Akron Fall Temperatures Akron Average Temperatures Fall (Sep-Nov) 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1918 1920 1922 1924 Temperature (deg F)
2002 2005 37 35 33 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 Akron Winter Temperatures Akron Winter Temperatures Akron Average Temperatures Winter (Dec-Feb) 1921 1924 1927 1930 1933 1936 1939 1942 1945 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 1918 Temperature (deg F)
Idalia CoAgMet Reference ET Idalia CoAgMet Reference ET Values ET (In) 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 Average 2002 2004 2005 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Month
Summer (May Sep) 2005 precipitation as percent of average
October 2005 Precipitation as Percent of Average
Akron 2005 daily precipitation compared to daily average Precipitation (Inches) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Akron 4E Daily Accumulated Precipitation for Year 2005 and 30-Year Average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Holyoke, 2004 & 2005 daily accumulated precipitation compared to daily average Average 2005 Holyoke Daily Accumulated Precipitation for 2004, 2005 and 30-year average Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Akron 4E 2006 Water Year Akron 4E 2006 Water Year 30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1915 Min Year - 2002 Period of Record Average - 1906-2002 30 2006 Water Year Accumulated Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) 25 20 15 10 5 0 OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
Cheyenne Wells 2006 Water Year Cheyenne Wells 2006 Water Year 30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1909 Min Year - 1956 Period of Record Average - 1971-2002 2006 Water Year 2002 Water Year Accumulated 30 25 Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) 20 15 10 5 0 OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
Burlington 2006 Water Year Burlington 2006 Water Year 30 Year Averages-1971-2000 Max Year - 1915 Min Year - 1954 Period of Record Average - 1892-2002 2006 Water Year 2002 Water Year Accumulated 35 30 Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) 25 20 15 10 5 0 OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Months
Washington County 10/10/05
Washington County 10/11/05
Precipitation We could sure use more data!
What is CoCoRaHS? CoCoRaHS is a unique, non-profit community based network of volunteers of all ages and backgrounds working together to measure and map precipitation (rain, hail and snow).
By using low-cost measurement tools, stressing training and education, and utilizing an interactive Web-site, our aim is to provide the highest quality data for natural resource, education and research applications.
Some reasons for measuring
1) Precipitation is important and highly variable
2) Existing weather stations are too far apart
3) ) Electronic measurements s of precipitation are unsatisfactory
4) Storm reports can save lives
What s s Involved?
How to sign up? See Me after talk or Fill out application at CoCoRaHS display or Fill out Join Us form online at www.cocorahs.org
Finally, what's ahead for this Spring and Summer?
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst.shtml
Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) Last update: February 6, 2006 http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/mei/
El Nino Forecast http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/swcasts/
Temperature Mar-May May 2006 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html
Precipitation Mar-May May 2006 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html
Temperature Jun-Aug 2006 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html
Precipitation Jun-Aug 2006 From the Colorado Prediction Center http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html
Conclusion: We're one dry spring away from being back in severe drought, and one wet spring away from being happier.
But in this land, any drought recovery is temporary. 15-18" 18" of moisture is a lot better than nothing, but it doesn't leave you any margin.
Colorado Climate Center Colorado State University Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu click on Drought then click on Presentations