Index Page Sire Selection Box 1 Dam Selection Box 2 Pedigree Display 3 Nicking Type 4 Pedigree Nicking Level 5 Inbreds Button 6 Nick Button 7 Nick Results Glossary 8 PDF & Nick Score 9 Inbreeding Filter 10 IRISH NATIONAL STUD NICKING GUIDE Genetic Nick 12 Contact Me About This Nick 13
Page 1 of 13 Sire Selection This nicking tool is sponsored by the Irish National Stud. Choose one of their stallions by clicking on your selection in the Sire dropdown menu.
Page 2 of 13 Dam Selection Choose the dam by typing her name into the Dam box. As you type, the box will populate with mare names. Just click on your selection and the Dam pedigree box will fill. If you cannot find the mare you are seeking, the chances are she is not in our database. Contact us at support@bloodstockevaluator.com with the name of the mare and we will add her to the database as soon as we can.
Page 3 of 13 Pedigree display A five-generation pedigree of the hypothetical match will be displayed, along with the family number and a final colour-coded column which references the mitochondrial (genetic) type of each 5 th generation ancestor.
Page 4 of 13 Nicking Type The Hemisphere filter is locked on Northern Hemisphere to ensure that the results of the nicking query are restricted to horses foaled in the Northern Hemisphere. The Nicking Type filter allows you to choose from two options, Pedigree and Genetic. Just click on your selection.
Page 5 of 13 Pedigree Nicking Level The Pedigree Nicking Level filter is one of the unique features of Bloodstock Evaluator s nicking tools. The default level is the Classic Nick where our algorithm searches through layers of complexity (starting from the basic Sire/Dam Sire nick) until it finds enough data to record a significant rating. If you prefer a more bespoke setting then scroll down the menu until you find the sire line/dam sire line combination you are seeking.
Page 6 of 13 Inbreds Click on the Inbreds button to calculate a 10-generation inbreeding coefficient and display common ancestors within five generations.
Page 7 of 13 Once you have made all your selections, click on Nick, and wait a few seconds for the Nick Result to be generated. Results Box The Results screen shows the Nicking Stats as well as the names of all horses in the database bred on a similar pattern. For these horses, we calculate the Relationship Coefficient (RC%), so you can immediately recognize how closely related they are to the subject horse - not all nick hits are the same... The results are sorted automatically by Timeform Ratings. Click on any horse in the results panel to see their fivegeneration pedigree and race result history.
Page 8 of 13 Nick Result A Nick query is designed to calculate how many good horses have been produced by a certain combination of sire and dam sire lines. We define good horses quite broadly as those who have won or placed in a Group or Graded Stakes race, won a Listed Race or were otherwise rated 105 or higher by Timeform. The result compares the number of good horses with the Racing Age Offspring (RAO) for the nick, giving a percentage of good horses (TF 105+) to RAO. Expected Result Our algorithm selects a random dataset and then draws out those horses most closely related to the nick query. These horses become the Control RAO, and the number of good horses to RAO is calculated for comparison against the nick result. Nick Analysis The Odds Ratio compares the Nick Result with the Expected Result. To take an easy example, if the Nick Result is 20% TF 105+/RAO, and the Expected Result is 10% TF 105+/RAO, the Odds Ratio will be 20/10 or 2 and is therefore twice as good as expected. The Z value standardizes the Odds Ratio by adjusting for the sample size. The higher the Z value, the more successful the nick has been in the past. Normal Distribution Curve The aim of our Nick Ratings is to offer users the opportunity to view the results in context. By plotting the Z value on a Normal Distribution Curve we can compare the selected nick against all theoretical possible combinations of sires and dams in the database, (assuming that these are normally distributed). We know that the average Z value of these matings will be 0. A z value of 1 is said to be one Standard Deviation away from the mean; a z value of 2, two Standard Deviations from the mean, and so on. The coloured bar represents the percentage of nicks under the curve. A z value of 0 will be better than 50% of all nicks, a score of 2 or higher, better than nearly 98% of all nicks.
Page 9 of 13 Click on to see the Z value converted into a score out of 100. This score is dependent on where the Z value falls on a normal distribution curve. You can see the "Bell Curve" in the chart on the top right of the pdf. The higher the Z value, the closer the horse icon is to the winning post, and the better the nick rating. Scores are in a colour coded box which matches the results bar in the chart bright red for poor through to bright green for very good. The report also shows the top ten similarly-bred performers, their best racing result and Timeform Rating, and how closely they are related to the subject horse (RC%). It also shows how old the dam was when she foaled the individual as well as her racing record. This data can give you some idea of the quality of mare needed to breed a good winner on the subject nick.
Page 10 of 13 Inbreeding Filter Some matches are just too closely inbred for comfort, and yet might still produce a decent nicking score (or even a 20/20 rating ). Our algorithm will automatically override the Z value and record a score of No Rating when the inbreeding Coefficient exceeds 6% (that s any mating showing an inbred ancestor closer than 3 x 3).
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Page 12 of 13 Genetic Nick The Genetic Nick calculates the compatibility of Sire and the mtdna haplotype of the dam, which is essentially the extended female family. Like the traditional pedigree nicks, some combinations work better than others. Select this option by clicking on Genetic in the dropdown Nicking Type menu.
Page 13 of 13 If you like what you see, click on and get in touch directly with the Irish National Stud.