Fish Stock Status - Overview 16 th November 2017 Seafish Common Language Group Friend s House, 173-177 Euston Road, London NW1 2BJ Dr Carl O Brien CBE Defra Chief Fisheries Science Adviser UK Delegate to ICES / Vice-President
Three main topics are covered: Focus on stocks in the North-East Atlantic Overview of regional status December Council 2017 and the setting of TACs and quotas for 2018 CION proposal excluding top-up Outline of presentation
Greater North Sea Ecoregion (released by ICES)
Celtic Seas ecoregion (draft by ICES)
Icelandic Waters ecoregion (released)
Baltic Sea ecoregion (released)
Norwegian Sea ecoregion (released)
Timetable Event Release of ICES Advice: Main Tranche 30 June Widely Distributed - 29 September Skates and Rays 6 October Bass 24 October Remaining advice 31 October Updated June advice 14 November Date June November 2017 Commission s TQR Proposal 7 November 2017 Fisheries Council 11-12 December 2017
Quota Uplifts Stocks subject to the landing obligation will be adjusted (Reg. 1380/2013) 25 species of UK interest will be subject to the LO in 2018, including (for the first time) saithe in Area VI The uplift needs to be based on available science (ICES/STECF) and easy to understand How quota uplifts will be calculated in 2018 will be similar to the methodology used for the 2017 uplift New calculations are expected in mid-november 2017 This needs to be resolved before December Council Uplifts will be allocated to MS based on relative stability Uplifts on shared stocks will be agreed with Norway
Generally, prospects look good: Continuing improvements in terms of sustainable fishing North Sea, Skagerrak and Kattegat West of Scotland, Irish Sea and Celtic Sea ICES advice released this year (2017 for 2018)
Stock F(2016) SSB(2017) Cod Irish in Division Sea VIIa roundfish and flatfish Haddock in Division VIIa Whiting in Division VIIa Plaice in Division VIIa Sole in Division VIIa Irish Sea roundfish and flatfish
Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and North Sea herring stocks Stock F(2016) SSB(2017) Herring in Division VIIa (North) Herring in Celtic Sea and Division VIIj Herring in Subarea IV, Division VIId and Division IIIa (autumn spawners) Irish Sea, Celtic Sea and North Sea herring stocks
Irish Sea Stock TAC 2017 (tonnes) ICES Advice (tonnes) (diff % 2017 TAC) 2018 TAC proposal (tonnes) (diff % 2017 TAC) Type of Advice / Notes Haddock VIIa 2,615 Positive 2,796 (+7%) MSY Herring VIIa 4,127 +70% 7,016 (+70%) MSY Cod VIIa 146 Positive 292 (+100%) MSY Whiting VIIa 80 0 TAC pm MSY (Annex 5232/14) Sole VIIa 40 0 TAC 40 (=) MSY Plaice VIIa 1,098 Positive 1,793 (+63%) MSY
West of Scotland Stock TAC 2017 (tonnes) ICES Advice (tonnes) (diff % 2017 TAC) 2018 TAC proposal (diff % 2017 TAC) Type of Advice / Notes Cod VIa 0 No directed fishery zero catch Whiting VI 213 zero catch 0 TAC (-100%) 0 TAC MSY VIa advice is MSY Approach; VIb advice is data-limited method 'Precautionary reduction' Haddock VIa 3,697 +31% pm MSY Haddock Rockall VIb 4,690 +10% 4,202 (-10%) MSY Nephrops VI 16,407-25% pm Blue Ling Vb, VI, VII Herring VIb & VIaN Sum of Functional Unit advice 11,314-5% 10,763 (-5%) MSY 4,170 zero catch 4,170 (=) MSY
North Sea & Eastern Channel roundfish & flatfish Stock F(2016) SSB(2017) Cod in Subarea IV (North Sea), Division VIId (Eastern Channel) and Division IIIa (Skagerrak) Haddock in Subarea IV (North Sea) and Division IIIaN (Skagerrak) Whiting in Subarea IV (North Sea) and Division VIId (Eastern Channel) Saithe in Subarea IV (North Sea), Division IIIa (Skagerrak) and Subarea VI (West of Scotland and Rockall) Plaice in Subarea IV Plaice in Division VIId (Eastern Channel) Sole in Subarea IV Sole in Division VIId (Eastern Channel) North Sea & Eastern Channel roundfish & flatfish
North Sea Stock TAC 2017 (tonnes) ICES Advice (tonnes) (diff % 2017 TAC) 2018 TAC proposal (diff % 2017 TAC) Type of Advice / Notes Cod IV 39,220 (June: +27%) November: +12% pm MSY Haddock IV 33,643 (+29%) +24% pm MSY Herring 481,608 +2% pm EU-Norway MP Plaice IV 129,917 pm MSY Whiting IV 16,003 (+14%) +12% pm MSY Saithe IIIa & IV 100,287 +7% pm MSY Nephrops IV 20,034 (+7%) +25% 20,851 (+4%) Sum of Functional Unit advice
Western Channel & Bristol Channel flatfish and roundfish Stock F(2016) SSB(2017) Sole in Division VIIe Plaice in Division VIIe Sole in Division VIIfg Plaice in Division VIIfg Sole in Division VIIh-k Plaice in Division VIIh-k Cod in Division VIIe-k Haddock in Division VIIb-k Whiting in Division VIIe-k Western Channel & Bristol Channel flatfish & roundfish
Stock F(2016) SSB(2017) Northern hake in Division IIIa, Subbareas IV, VI and VII, and Divisions VIIIa,b,d Anglerfish in Division VIIb-k and VIIIa,b,d No new advice Megrim in Division VIIb-k and VIIIa,b,d Anglerfish in Divisions IIIa and Subareas IV and VI Megrim in Divisons IVa and VIa Megrim in Dvisions VIb (Rockall) F(2016) SSB(2017) European sea bass Northern hake, anglerfish & megrim/european sea bass
Celtic Sea & Channel - Part 1 Stock TAC 2017 (tonnes) ICES Advice (tonnes) (diff % 2017 TAC) 2018 TAC proposal (diff % 2017 TAC) Type of Advice / Notes Cod Celtic Sea VIIbc,e-k 2,830 Positive pm MSY Haddock Celtic Sea VIIb-k 7,751 Warning pm MSY Whiting Celtic Sea VIIb-k 27,500 Warning pm MSY Anglerfish VII 33,516 No new advice (assume roll over) 29,534 (-12%) Data-limited method 'Biomass Index' Herring Celtic Sea VIIg-k 14,467-62% 5,445 (-62%) MSY Megrim (VII) 13,691 Warning 12,310 (-10%) MSY Nephrops VII 25,356 +21% pm Functional Unit with the sum at MSY
Celtic Sea & Channel - Part 2 Stock TAC 2017 ICES Advice (diff % 2017 TAC) 2018 TAC (diff % 2017 TAC) Type of Advice / Notes Sole Western Channel VIIe 1,178 +5% 1,202 (+2%) MSY approach; MP not evaluated by ICES. Sole Eastern Channel VIId 2,724 +42% 2,933 (+6%) MSY Sole Celtic Sea VIIhjk 382-30% 382 (=) Data-limited method - 'biomass index'; Subject to 5232/14 and a TAC roll-over. Sole Bristol Channel VIIfg 845 +10% 901 (+7%) MSY Plaice Channel VIIde 10,022 Positive 10,360 (+3%) MSY Plaice Celtic Sea VIIhjk 128 0 TAC 0 (-100%) Plaice Bristol Channel VIIfg 405 Positive 511 (+26%) Data-limited method - 'biomass index. Data-limited Method biomass index'.
Pelagics Stock TAC 2017 (tonnes) ICES Advice (tonnes) (diff % 2017 TAC) 2018 TAC proposal (diff % 2017 TAC) Type of Advice / Notes Mackerel in the Northeast Atlantic Blue whiting in Subareas I-IX. XII and XIV (combined stock) Atlanto-Scandian Herring 1,020,996 (1,194,000 sum of unilateral quotas) 1,342,330 (1,675,400 sum of unilateral quotas) 646,075 (805,142 sum of Unilateral quotas) -46% 816,797t (-20%) MSY advice / MP TAC +3% TAC not yet agreed MSY -41% TAC not yet agreed MP Western Horse mackerel IIa, Iva, VI, VIIa-c, VIIe-k, VIIIa, VIIb, VIIId and VIIIe North Sea Horse Mackerel IVb-c, VIId 83,829 +20% 101,070 (+21%) MSY 18,247 17,517 (-4%) 15,179 (-17%) Boarfish 27,288-20% 20,380 (-25%) Sprat in Subarea IIa and IV (North Sea) Sprat VIId,e (English Channel) 176,411 Advice due Spring 2018 0 4,120-43% 3,296 (-20%) Precautionary approach Data-limited method - 'biomass index' TAC period July 2018- June 2019 Precautionary approach Clyde Herring VIa 583 Advice due early 2018 pm UK Delegated TAC
Widely Distributed Stocks Stock TAC 2017 (tonnes) ICES Advice (tonnes) (diff % 2017 TAC) 2018 TAC proposal/uk quota (tonnes) (diff % 2017 TAC) Type of Advice / Notes Anglerfish (VI) 7,650 +21% pm Anglerfish (IV) 13,521 +21% pm Megrim (VI) 5,682-3% 4,691 (-17%) Data-limited method biomass trends. Data-limited method biomass trends. Data-limited method Includes Rockall advice Megrim (IV) 2,639 +3% -4% Data-limited method Hake VI & VII 67,658 54,719 (-19%) MSY Global TAC -13% Hake IIa & IV 3,928 3,426 (-13%) MSY Ling VI-X, XII & XIV 20,396 +14% 20,396 (=) Data-limited method biomass trends. Tusk V, VI, VII 3,860 +16% 4,130 (+7%) Data-limited method
Bass (NS, NWW, Channel) ICES bass scientific advice for 2018 published on 24 October 2017. Recommendation is for a zero catch (commercial and recreational). Assessment continues to indicate a declining spawning stock biomass(ssb) trajectory below B lim. Commission proposals expected around mid-november 2017
Progress to date: TAC(2017): Out of 45 stocks that are MSYassessed and targeted by the UK, 29 are now being exploited in line with MSY; resulting in the gradual rebuilding of stocks. At their peak, fishing pressures on UK stocks have been ~3 times sustainable levels, though these rates are now substantially reduced. UK MSY data-rich stocks