Winter 2016 Hunting District 313 Elk survey (Gardiner to 6-Mile Creek) Prepared by Karen Loveless Livingston Area Wildlife Biologist, Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks 406-333-4211 kloveless@mt.gov This survey was conducted as part of the Northern Yellowstone Cooperative Wildlife Working Group (NYCWWG) survey, in which Yellowstone National Park (YNP) and Montana Fish Wildlife and Parks (MFWP) simultaneously survey the entire Yellowstone northern range in order to obtain a total count of the northern Yellowstone elk herd. The FWP biologists survey the entire Montana portion of the Yellowstone northern range except for the area east of Bear Creek (including Deckard Flats), which is surveyed by YNP staff. This report presents and discusses results for hunting district 313 (HD313). Results of the cooperative elk survey covering the entire northern range in Yellowstone National Park and Montana are provided separately in a report prepared by YNP. Date: January 2, 2016 Flight Duration: Two aircraft were used to survey HD313 Aircraft 1: Supercub; Observer Karen Loveless, Pilot Neil Cadwell (FWP Pilot). Take off from Flying Y airport in Paradise Valley at 08:01, landed Flying Y airport at 11:57am; surveyed Six-mile creek south to Bear Creek. Total flight time was 4.4 hours Aircraft 2: Aviat Husky; Observer Kelly Proffitt, Pilot Jim Ortman (Northern Wings Aviation). Take off from Bozeman at 7:30, land Bozeman 10:40; surveyed Beattie Gulch to Sphinx Creek. Total flight time was 3.2 hours. Weather/Survey Conditions: Snow cover was 90% for most of the survey with some areas of patchy snow at low elevations. Skies were clear and winds were calm except for occasional gusts in the Dome Mountain area. Overall observability of elk was good for most of the survey, and moderate during portions of the survey when glare from bright sun and snowpack made elk more difficult to spot. Survey Methods All elk winter range was surveyed at low elevation by fixed-wing aircraft. All groups of elk were counted from the air. Efforts were made to classify all groups of elk for brow-tined bulls. In the interest of time we did not attempt to classify calves or yearling bulls; a separate classification survey is normally conducted in late winter to determine calf and bull ratios. Survey Results A total of 3,758 elk were observed within HD313 in a total of 115 groups ranging in size from 1-552 (Figure 1). This count is very similar to the 2015 survey results of 3,714 elk, but 25% higher than the lowest count of 3,000 elk observed in 2013. This year s count of 3,758 is the highest number of elk observed in HD313 during winter surveys since 2008 (Table 1). During the survey we counted and classified a total of 43 brow-tined bulls by antler points. This is much lower than the 148 brow-tined bulls observed during 2015, however sightability of bulls varies widely during this fixed-wing survey, and for trends in bull ratios we rely on the classification survey conducted by helicopter in March each year. Additionally, the timing of our survey route differed this year and we covered the upper elevations of the Dome Mountain area where bulls tend to winter later in the morning than usual. However, two days prior to this survey, we conducted a mule deer survey by helicopter and used that opportunity to classify brow-tined bulls as we encountered them on the
survey route, including the upper elevations of the Dome Mountain area. We combined additional brow-tined bulls observed during the December 31 survey with those observed during the January 2 elk survey in order to estimate age structure of brow-tined bulls wintering in HD313. We observed a total of 116 brow-tined bulls, or 3% of the total elk observed in HD313. Among observed bulls we classified 65 young bulls (5 or fewer points per antler) and 51 mature bulls (6 or more points on one or more antler). This resulted in 44% 6-point bulls and 56% 5-point or smaller brow-tined bulls. During previous year s surveys we have not classified brow-tined bulls by antler points, so there are no previous data to compare these antler-point classification results with. Within YNP, a total of 229 brow-tined bulls were observed during the January 2 survey; these bulls were not classified by antler points. Combined with the count of brow-tined bulls in HD313, results are 345 brow-tined bulls classified among a total of 4,912 elk observed, or 7% of the observed population. During previous years YNP has not recorded numbers of brow-tined bulls observed during the cooperative elk survey, so there are no previous survey data to compare the count of YNP brow-tined bull numbers to. A classification survey is normally conducted in March to determine ratios of mature and yearling bulls and calves (see 2015 northern Yellowstone elk classification survey report). Population Trends and Management The 3,758 elk observed during this survey is within the objective range of 3,000 5,000 elk specified by the Elk Management Plan for HD 313. The number of elk observed north of Dome Mountain was 2,460, which is within the objective of 2000-3000 elk wintering north of Dome Mountain. In recent years the number of elk observed within Gardiner Basin has averaged less than 900. This year and in 2015 we observed higher than average elk numbers in the Gardiner Basin, with 1,298 elk in the Gardiner Basin subunits in 2016, and 1,362 observed in these subunits in 2015 (Table 1). The proportion of the Northern Yellowstone elk herd observed within Montana was 77%, with 23% of the herd wintering within Yellowstone National Park. This is consistent with each survey since 2013, and is the highest proportion of the elk herd ever observed north the Park, followed by 70% observed in 2011 and 66% observed in 2012. There has been a trend of increasing proportions of the herd wintering in Montana: in past years it was unusual for more than 50% of the herd to be observed wintering north of the Park (Table 3). In response to declining elk numbers during the 2000 s (Figure 2), the Gardiner Late Hunt was substantially reduced then eliminated in 2010. Due to sustained low calf and bull ratios (see 2015 northern Yellowstone elk classification report), the season structure was changed in 2012 to require permits for all elk hunting in HD313. Unlimited permits are required for harvest of brow-tined bulls (BTB), and limited draw permits for BTB or antlerless are available for youth only. Beginning in 2014 the unlimited BTB permits were changed to first-choice only (Table 2) Though harvest of bulls has fluctuated over the past decade, on average bull harvest has increased (Table 3). The 2014 harvest of 315 bulls was the highest documented since 2006. of 6-point bulls has declined from 88% of the total harvest in 2004 to 48% of the harvest in 2014 (Figure 3). This proportion is very similar to the observed proportion of 44% 6-point bulls classified during this survey. In the context of low brow-tined bull ratios observed in 313, and declining brow-tined bull ratios observed across the population (see 2015 northern Yellowstone elk classification survey report), there is concern over the sustainability of recent bull harvest. The FWP 2016-2017 season setting
recommendation is to institute limited draw permits for bulls in order to stabilize and reverse the decline in brow-tined bulls while maintaining sustainable harvest. Figure 1. Location and group size of elk observed during aerial survey of HD313 on January 2, 2016 Figure 2. Trends for northern Yellowstone elk, including total elk herd count, and numbers of elk observed in HD 313 during late winter surveys 1990-2016. Data are missing for some years because surveys were not conducted or survey conditions were poor.
Table 1. Distribution of elk by herd unit in HD 313, as observed during aerial surveys 2008 2016. (Survey conditions were poor in 2014, and data are not available for 2010.) Subunit: 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 North of Dome Mtn. 3092 2797 2496 1558 2132 2352 2460 Gardiner Basin Dome Mtn to Slip n' Slide Crk 4 99 84 13 22 0 18 Slip n' Slide to Cedar Crk 46 28 88 223 67 120 156 Cedar to Little Trail Creek 133 101 261 56 9 178 200 LittleTrl-BearCrk 200 93 67 417 329 330 397 Deckard Flats 73 97 37 29 83 128 96 YNP-MolHeronCrk 71 8 14 116 20 54 45 MolHeronCrk-SphinxCrk 366 288 256 351 338 552 386 Gardiner Basin Subtotal 893 714 807 1205 868 1362 1298 HD313 TOTAL 3985 3511 3303 2763 3000 3714 3758 Table 2. Elk harvest management since 2006 in HD 313: During 2006-2011 any hunter with a general elk license could harvest a brown-tined bull (BTB) in HD 313, and youth-only could harvest antlerless elk with a general elk license, in addition to limited numbers of antlerless B licenses. Beginning in 2012 hunting has been allowed by permit only in HD313; unlimited permits for BTB are available by drawing or over-the-counter and limited youth-only permits can be drawn for BTB/antlerless elk. Beginning in 2014, unlimited BTB permits have been available by drawing or over-the-counter as first-choice only. Also beginning in 2014, HD317 antlerless B licenses could be used on private lands north of the Dome Mountain Wildlife Management Area in HD313. Year Total Elk ed "Unlimited" BTB Permits Issued Permits sold overthe-counter Bulls ed Youth BTB/Antlerless Permits Issued Antlerless Elk ed 2006 573 453 120 2007 243 141 102 2008 267 122 145 2009 254 128 126 2010 379 291 88 2011 216 155 61 2012 186 1233 71 168 30 18 2013 187 1774 40 165 30 22 2014 349 1409 177 315 30 34 2015 1525 44 30
Table 3. Total elk harvest in HD313, 2000 2014, and elk survey results 2000-2016. The total herd count is the number of elk observed on the Yellowstone northern range, including within Yellowstone National Park and within HD 313 in Montana. Migration size is the proportion of the total herd count that is observed within HD 313. Year Total Elk Observed Elk Observed in Montana Migration Size Late Hunt General Season Total Total Antlerless Total Bull 2000 14,677 3,500 24% 1,221 143 1,364 1132 229 2001 13,650 3,833 28% 1,103 51 1,154 1020 134 2002 12,096 5,104 42% 718 182 900 700 200 2003 9,467 3,494 37% 702 23 725 620 105 2004 8,471 3,990 47% 457 87 544 421 123 2005 9,807 3,243 33% 132 291 423 124 299 2006 6,878 3,549 52% 124 449 573 120 453 2007 ** ** ** 103 140 243 102 141 2008 6,561 4,088 62% 127 140 267 145 122 2009 7,400 3,638 49% 91 163 254 126 128 2010 6,070 3,359 55% 0 379 379 88 291 2011 4,635 3,266 70% 0 216 216 61 155 2012 4,174 2,734 66% 0 186 186 18 168 2013 3,915 3,000 77% 0 187 187 22 165 2014* 2,063 1,587 77% 0 349 349 34 315 2015 4,850 3,714 77% 0 ** ** ** ** 2016 4,912 3,804 77% *Survey conditions were poor ** No survey was completed or data not available Figure 3. Proportion of 6-point bulls within the total brow-tined bull harvest in HD313, 2004 2014