Crop Weather Outlook 2012 What Follows A Strong La Niña? Elwynn Taylor www.twitter.com/elwynntaylor 1/12/2012 US Corn 147.2 BPA (9.24K/ha) soy 41.5BPA (2.79K/ha)
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/extremes/summer-2011-days-over-100.png
Madden-Julian Contributing to the weather today wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/22/the-madden-julian-oscillation/
Daily T Deviation from Average Dec 2010 to Aug 2011, Dec 2011 to now 17 Mar It was not hot all the time It was La Niña La Niña T is more extreme Last year (2011) we did not have+30
Central Iowa corn yield trend (+2.05Bu/yr) exceeds the National (+1.87Bu/yr), but lags the state (+2.10 Bu/yr).
WC IA West Central Iowa trend = 2.35Bu/yr.
200 180 160 140 -- 18 yrs -- -- 16 yrs -- 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
$ per bushel Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics 7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Season-average Price Cost per Bushel Chad E Heart
stable period 2 stable period 3 stable period 4
Reminder: All crop forecasts in this report are based on conditions on August 1 and do not reflect weather effects since that time. The next district corn and soybean production forecasts, based on conditions as of September 1, will be released on September 12. 157.5 172 http://www.nass.usda.gov/statistics_by_state/iowa/index.asp#.html
Record year 2011 Edging records of mid-teens &50s for old stations
Weather Stations Near You
Sheldon: Hot July & normal rain to mid-july http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu
Normal is 10.06 inch Normal is 12.06inch Normal is 14.55 inch Iowa: Precipitation between dates (2012 to date) http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu
When I was a kid 1947 1983 Iowa State University Extension
COLD WARM Warm Winters Cold Winters
Sea Surface Anomaly 2012 http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html
Past 3 La Niña peaked below 15 Past 3 dropped to negative values World weather stayed La Niña this time
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current//soi-1977-1984.shtml
Some relief
Roots could be very important
I Remember Algona 2002 Our creek is dry for the 1 st time in 100+ years! Heat stress was normal after silking, Gdd got bhind, rain was ample in Aug
La Niña La Niña began June 2010 La Niña peaked Nov 1, 2010 2 nd strongest since 1950 by time & strength. Weakened (but did not establish neutral condition) 14 June - 9 Sep 2011 Strengthened to Moderate La Niña 1 Oct 2011 Ended (likely) 22 Apr 2012. Then?
11-month outlook based on persistent climate anomalies Risk Wheel Decision Tool 70% risk of below trend 53% risk of above 70% risk of above Chance of U.S. Corn yield <90% of trend yield (Red), 90-100% (Blue), 100-110% (yellow), >110% (Green) for (left to right) La Niña, neutral, El Niño summers. Like analysis was done for ENSO+PDO+NAO combinations. Corn buyers/sellers can manage the risk of crop yield exceeding or falling below government determined demand levels. I S U
TWW Corn-Soy Outlook TWW (Taylor, Wisner, Wolter) Taylor likely crop yield per acre Wisner likely Dec price at harvest time Wolter likely El Niño/La Niña summer condition
La Niña Outlook 9 May 2012 30% Chance La Niña persists into Summer 20% Chance El Niño begins immediately 50% Chance of Neutral?? Minimal chance of Neutral SOI 30% Chance of La Niña with US Yield < 148 BPA $6.60 20% Chance of El Niño with US Yield > 168 BPA $5.00 50% Chance of neutral with US Trend+ 164 BPA $5.15 $ from Wisner 2/9/2012 http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf Soy 41bpa $11.95, 43.5bpa $10.60, 45.5bpa $10.35 Based on the evolution of recent atmosphereocean conditions, I am dropping the odds from 50/50 to less than 30% for continued La Niña conditions into the upcoming summer. In fact, there is a distinct possibility that we could see a switch to El Niño by mid-2012. (Klaus.Wolter@noaa.gov), (303) 497-6340 Today DEC corn $5.18 Nov Soy $13.29
Preliminary 2012 Corn Risk 8 Mar 2012 130 180 22% 145 148 $6.60 177 29% 161 168 $5.00 164.2 $5.15 DEC12 518 ½ 10:30am 5/9/12 ENSO odds: Wolter, Contract $: Wisner, Yield odds: Taylor Wolter: www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ Taylor: twitter.com/elwynntaylor Wisner: www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/crops/outlook/cornbalancesheet.pdf
Recovery of La Nina (termed a recovery as the historically mandatory 90-day period of neutral [blue zone] was not achieved). This is the 90-day moving average plot that serves as the forecast for the behavior of the official 152-day centered moving average. The 152-day entered neutral on 13 June 2011 & recovered to La Nina 9 Sep 2011, as the neutral period was less than 90 days the standard for a neutral condition was not achieved.
An Important storm has helped but not corrected the dryness in S Brazil & in Argentina (dry since Nov).
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/comp/latest_cmoll.gif
Next 10 days: Warmish
SOI The sea surface warming off Argentina has been significant over the past 20 days Mar 19, 2012 0.82 (SOI tending, as of now, toward neutral ) http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/ml/ocean/sst/anomaly.html