Columbia River Plume and California Current Ecosystem: Role in Salmon Productivity

Columbia River Plume and California Current Ecosystem: Role in Salmon Productivity NOAA Fisheries Northwest Fisheries Science Center Estuary and Ocean Ecology Program Ed Casillas Program Manager

Why study the ocean? Ocean productivity sets salmon recruitment levels - return rates can vary >1x with similar freshwater conditions/survival The coastal pelagic ecosystem is dynamic and the variability seems to be increasing need to put FW actions in this context Objective Understand processes and develop tools (models and ocean indices) for forecasting salmonid survival and returns

Egg-smolt Potential- Snake River 16 Spring Chinook 12 8 4 SF Salmon Marsh Catherine.3.2.1 Proportion per Bar...1.2.3.4.5.6.7 Egg to Smolt Survival Rate Recent good ocean 1 yr ave ocean Poor ocean

CHART OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE Note: warm water between the equator and ~ 3 N Because of upwelling off North America, S. America N. Africa and S. Africa, cool water is found at the coast. Without upwelling, the coasts would be ~ 5-1EC warmer during summer because offshore waters would move shoreward.

55 N 5 45 4 35 3 25 15 W145 14 135 13 125 12 115 11 Plankton, Salmon and Pelagic Fish Sampling Sample in May, June and September (5 stations) since 1998 Sample Columbia River and Willapa Bay every 1 days from April through July (AT NIGHT) at ~ 1 stations; since 1998 Sample off Newport every two weeks, since 1996 Have historical data on hydrography and zooplankton from 197s and 1983; salmon abundance data from 1981-1985 but only some of these data are part of this talk

State of the Northern California Current Ecosystem Influenced by large scale forces acting at the local scale to affect biological process important for salmon Alaska 65N 6 Alaskan Low Local Conditions Upwelling Spring Transition SST British Columbia U.S.A. 55 5 45 4 35 ENSO 3 25 7 W 16 15 14 13 12 11 Local Biological Conditions

My Task Ocean entry timing and plume research Ocean productivity, variability, and PDO

Overview Ocean Factors Growth bottom up process Predation Top down process Development of ocean condition indices Plume and salmon survival Ocean habitat, variable ecosystem, forecasting

Where Are Juvenile Salmon in the Coastal Ocean? 44.5 N 44. N August 2 Chinook and Coho Abundance # of Individuals/catch-Chinook 1 to 5 5 to 15 15 to 15 # of Individuals/catch-Coho 1 to 5 5 to 15 15 to 15 Newport 1.5 9.5 Salmon - Habitat Linkages: Salmon are not everywhere in the coastal ocean! 43.5 N Latitude 43. N 42.5 N Cape Blanco 8.5 7.5 6.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.5 1.5.1. µg/l Salmon Associated with Hot Zones of Ocean Productivity 42. N Oregon California 126. W 125.5 W 125. W 124.5 W 124. W Longitude

Juvenile Chinook Stock Compositions off Oregon and Washington from analysis of microsatellite DNA variation May June September 95% Columbia R. 96% Columbia R. 7% Columbia R. Interior Columbia Basin springs Lower Columbia springs Coastal Mid & Upper Columbia River summer / falls Willamette springs Lower Columbia Falls Snake Falls

Grays Harbor to LaPush Genetic Stock Identification of Juvenile Chinook Salmon Columbia River Plume Study Area September Cruises 1998-26 Source Populations North of Columbia River Lower Columbia Fall Lower Columbia Spring Cape Falcon to Willapa Bay Upper Willamette Spring Spring Creek Group Fall Deschutes Fall Upper Columbia Summer/Fall Newport to Cape Meares Snake Fall Interior Columbia Basin Spring Charts show stock compositions in three regions of the study area N North Oregon Coast Mid Oregon Coast South Oregon Coast Klamath / California Coast Central Valley 1 2 km

Overview Ocean Factors Growth bottom up process Predation Top down process Development of ocean condition indices Plume and salmon survival Ocean habitat, variable ecosystem, forecasting

IGF in ocean caught juvenile salmon is related to adult returns SAR (smolt yr) 4.5 r 2 =.73 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 1.5 4 42 44 46 48 5 52 54 56 coho igf (ocean entry year) IGF is a critical growth related hormone reflecting recent (2 wk) ocean conditions

IGF in ocean caught juvenile salmon related to available food supply Chinook IGF relates to food and abundance similarly to relations found with coho June Chinook IGF vs prey field/june Chin (5T) CPUE 58 June Chinook IGF 56 54 52 5 48 46 44 42 R^2 =.896 1999 1999 2 2 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 26 25 26 Variation influenced by temperature 4.4.6.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 preyfield/junechin5tran

Axis 2 2. 1.5 1..5. -.5-1. -1.5-2. -2.5 Half Meter Vertical Net Copepods & Coho Copepod Community Composition in June related to Coho Survival 25 Added since meeting (white dots to the left with 1998) All June HM Copedensshelflog1norare5, NMS -2. -1.5-1. -.5..5 1. 1.5 2. Axis 1 Year 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 Coho Smolt to Adult Survival (%) 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5 Coho 1998 Salmon Survival Versus Warm Cold 1999 Year Axis Ordination Score 2 21 22 23 24 25 R 2 =.59 P =.3. -1.5-1. -.5..5 1. NMS Ordination Median Axis-1 Score (98-5) NMS Ordination Median Axis-1 Score (98-5)

Phase shifts are tracked by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO): negative values = cool phase; positive values = warm phase. 15 197s 198s 1999-22 1 5-5 -1-15 PDO Time Series 196 197 198 199 2 Cool phase 1947-1976 Cool phase 1999-22 Cool phase 26?? Warm phase 1977-1998 Warm phase 22-25

PDO Index 2-2 Sea surface temperature (SST) data from weather buoy off Newport shows similar patterns & shows that SST off Newport is related to the PDO = downscaling Cooler water in late 1998 associated with PDO change. SST Anomaly Buoy 465 4 2-2 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 YEAR Note: time lags between PDO and SST change, associated with advection of different water types to Oregon. Warmer water in late 22 associated with PDO change. Most months cooler since late 25

Copepod species richness anomaly and the PDO PDO Copepod Species Richness Anomaly 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 YEAR Suggests different water types appear off Oregon with persistent changes in PDO. Now, changing again, Species richness reflects origins of the animals. Low = subarctic; ; high = subtropical Species richness declined in fall 1998 but began to increase in Nov 2 due to phase shift of PDO Richness in 23-26 similar to the 1997-98 98 El Niño event As with SST, 3-53 months following PDO change, copepod species richness switches.

PDO v Northern and Southern copepod biomass anomalies 15 1 5 PDO Strong positive anomalies of Northern species when PDO is negative; Value of PDO -5-1.6.3. -.3 -.6 -.9.9 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 Northern Copepods 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 Southern Copepods Strong positive anomalies of southern species when PDO positive and during El Niño events (83, 97/98);.6.3. -.3 -.6 -.9 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 25 especially anomalous with regards to copepod species, looking very El Niño like! YEAR

Summary Survival relates to growth Growth relates to food Adult return IGF-I IGF-I Salmon food Salmon food Food relates to ocean conditions April upwelling

Overview Ocean Factors Growth bottom up process Predation Top down process (Fish, Bird and Disease) Development of ocean condition indices Plume and salmon survival Ocean habitat, variable ecosystem, forecasting

Predatory Fishes Jack mackerel (Trachurus symmetricus) Pacific mackerel (Scombrus japonicus) Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) Spiny dogfish (Squalus acanthias)

Predator Densities off the Columbia River 3 Number/1 6 m 3 2 1 Pacific hake Jack mackerel Chub mackerel Spiny dogfish 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 Year 24 25 26 27

Important Forage Fishes Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) Whitebait smelt (Allosmerus elongatus) Eulachon (Thalichthys pacificus) Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) Northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax)

Forage Fish Densities off the Columbia River 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Northern anchovy Pacific herring Pacific sardine Whitebait smelt 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Density (#/1 6 m 3 ) Year

Predator/Prey Interactions Top Down Forces Frequency 1 8 6 4 2 Pacific hake Chinook.-age Chinook salmon 1.-age age 2 4 6 75 95 115 135 155 175 195 215 235 255 275 295 Number 2 15 1 Coho salmon (1.) Fish prey length 5 Number 12 1 8 6 4 2 Chinook salmon (1.) Number 25 2 15 1 5 Chinook salmon (.) Number 12 1 8 6 4 2 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 All forage fish 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 3 Fork length (mm)

Model the Impact of Piscine Predation on Juvenile Salmon Half-saturation constant (Ks) Pacific hake Pacific hake population Fish eaten/day Forage fish and Juvenile salmon eaten Juvenile salmon Forage fish + juvenile salmon smolts entering Juvenile salmon population Salmon eaten by hake smolts migrating Forage fish Forage fish arrival Forage fish population Forage fish eaten by hake

Coho salmon Fall Chinook salmon OPI % survival 5 4 3 2 1 Predicted Observed Log (number of jacks) 5.25 5. 4.75 4.5 4.25 Predicted Observed 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 Year 4. 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 Year Spring Chinook salmon Summer Chinook salmon Log (number of jacks) 4.75 4.5 4.25 4. 3.75 3.5 Predicted Observed 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 Year Log (number of jacks) 4.3 4.2 4.1 4. 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 Predicted Observed 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 Year

3% 3% 4% 3% 1% 2% 3% 29% May-June coastal ocean dominated by shearwaters, murres 1% 4% MAY 23 sooty shearwater 47% Common murre Sooty shearwater Sabine's gull Unidentified phalarope Western gull Unidentified gull Immature gull Rhinoceros auklet Black-footed albatross 1% Red phalarope 2% Other 2% 2% 1% 3% common murre JUNE 23 3% Sooty shearwater Common murre Immature gull Pink-footed shearwater Western gull Northern fulmar Rhinoceros auklet Other 68%

Predation concentrated in Plume Region Predation directly in salmon migration path along continental shelf Common murre Tatoosh Island, WA La Push, WA Queets River, WA Grays Harbor, WA Willapa Bay, WA Columbia River, OR Observed murres per km Expected murres per km Tatoosh Island, WA La Push, WA Queets River, WA Grays Harbor, WA Willapa Bay, WA Columbia River, OR 48 46 Cape Meares, OR Cape Meares, OR Cascade Head, OR Cascade Head, OR Newport, OR Newport, OR 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 Count per km 3 2 1 44 127 125 123 Photo credit Peter LaTourrette, www.birdphotography.com

7 6 Temperature ( C) Salinity Sooty shearwater Common murre Birds aggregate 5 4 3 OCEAN RIVER at strong fronts 2 1 Strong fronts -124.232-124.212-124.192-124.172-124.152 Longitude west WA 7 6 5 4 3 OCEAN Temperature ( C) Salinity Sooty shearwater Common murre RIVER OR 2 1-124.33-124.28-124.23-124.18 Longitude west Surface salinity

Birds abundant, but vary with tide 3X as many birds on spring vs. neap 73 vs. 25 birds per km 2 Two-tailed t-test, t test, log (x+1) transform: p =.43 Log( mean daily count + 1) 2.6 2.4 2.2 2. 1.8 1.6 Bird abundance vs. tide type Mean Mean±SE Mean±1.96*SE 1.4 1.2 Spring Other Neap n = 23 n = 43 n = 12

Disease as a Mortality Agent Ceratomyxa shasta Prevalence in Juvenile salmon 3 25 % Infected 2 15 1 5 Columbia River Estuary 21 Columbia River Estuary 22 Columbia River Estuary 23 La Push- New port 21 La Push- New port 22 CR transect only 23 New port - Crescent City 2 New port - Crescent City 22 Estuary Ocean Juvenile salmon tested included a total of 662 yearling coho salmon, 495 yearling Chinook salmon, and 657 subyearling Chinook salmon

Prevalence and Intensity of Nanophyetus salmincola in juvenile coho salmon caught off Oregon and Washington 1 8 16 Prevalence 255 124 233 256 15 354 152 62 362 112 129 May June Sept % Infected 6 4 * * * 2 1999 2 21 22 Year

Prevalence of Nanophyetus salmincola in juvenile coho salmon during first summer in Pacific Ocean (1999-22) Prevalence (% infected) 1 8 6 4 2 * * * May June Sept * N = 19 164 5 25 62 29 11 19 59 134 181 87 CA-OR Columbia WA Coast PS Genetic assignment of origin

Juvenile salmon catches off Oregon and Washington directly relate to number of returning adult salmon: Average Catch per Kilometer Towed 6 5 4 3 2 1 June Coho yearling Chinook subyearling Chinook yearling 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 6 5 4 3 2 1 September 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 Adult Abundance (thousands) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 '3 '98 '1 Columbia River Basin Coho '2..2.4.6.8 Average Columbia River Coho Catch (# per km towed) in September '99 R 2 =.74 p =.3 ' Adult Returns at Bonneville (thousands) 5 4 3 2 1 Interior Columbia River Basin Spring Chinook '1 '2 '3 ' R 2 =.82 p =.3..2.4.6.8 Average Columbia River Chinook Catch (# per km towed) in June '99

Ocean Index Forecasting Future Salmon Returns Juvenile migration year Forecast of adult returns 2 25 26 Large-scale ocean and atmospheric indicators PDO MEI Local and regional physical indicators Sea surface temperature Coastal upwelling Physical spring transition Deep water temp. & salinity Local biological indicators Copepod biodiversity Northern copepod anomalies Biological spring transition Spring Chinook--June -- Coho--September -- to June 27 Coho 27 Chinook 28

Current Forecast Yearling Chinook Spring Chinook Jack Counts at Bonneville (3/1-6/15) 3 25 2 15 1 5 '5 '98 '1 '4 '3..2.4.6.8 1. 1.2 1.4 Average Yearling Chinook Catch (# per kilometer towed) in June BPA surveys '6 '2 ' 27 preliminary prediction R 2 =.8 p =.1 '99

The CR Plume where the river meets the ocean Plume Ocean

Plume: Variable and Dynamic 48 N 47 N June 16-24, 1999 1m Salinity LaPush Washington 32 31 3 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 2 48 N 47 N June 17-25, 2 1m Salinity LaPush Washington 33 32 31 3 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 48 N 47 N June 24 - July 1, 21 1m Salinity LaPush Washington 33 32.5 32 31.5 31 3.5 3 29.5 46 N Astoria Oregon 46 N Astoria Oregon 46 N Astoria Oregon Tillamook Tillamook Tillamook 45 N 45 N 45 N Newport Newport Newport 125 W 124 W 123 W 125 W 124 W 123 W 125 W 124 W 123 W

Plume Daily variability - May (peak of the salmon migration season) Plume Structure related to flow and atmospheric/oceanographic forces 1999 daily salinity anomalies 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 3 31

Plume Fronts as Habitat- Juvenile Salmon & Steelhead # Salmonid/km^2 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 Yearling Chinook Yearling Coho Steelhead (x.1) * * * * * 4 2 Ocean Front Plume

Large plume extends offshore Plume Structure Affects SARs The number of adult Steelhead returning to the Columbia River is related to plume structure Small plume hugs coastline A larger plume that is further offshore 7 to 1 days after juvenile steelhead enter the ocean leads to higher numbers of returning adults (yearling Chinook salmon also benefit from a larger plume, but to a lesser degree)

Habitat Characterization Analysis Issues Use presence/absence and abundance to define habitat Expanse of ocean habitat might relate to salmon marine survival Problems: Excessive zeros Non-homogeneous variance Over-dispersed

Logistic regression Zero-catch probability = chlorophyll + depth + salinity + temperature Stepwise selection

Model physical and biological attributes of the habitat to characterize variation in salmon abundance and distribution - Forecasting Generalized linear mixed model with a negative binomial distribution Y = a * X + b * Z + e Response variable: Juvenile salmon abundance Predictor variables: copepod indices, chl,, depth, temperature, salinity Copepod indices developed from principal factor analysis

Model Prediction vs Reality

Yearling Chinook spatial pattern > 3 indicate good habitat Inter-annual variation: 1998 25 Spatial variation

Conclusions Growth and survival related to ocean conditions Ecosystem productivity varies at interdecadal, interannual,, seasonal, and daily rates Understanding the interactions of the processes leads to forecasting tools to gauge the contribution of ocean conditions to the number of returning salmon and to value fw actions