Manitoba Water Stewardship Coping with Drought Drought Research Initiative Workshop Inn at the Forks, Winnipeg A.A. Warkentin January 11-13, 2007
Annual Renewal of Water Supplies Important Precipitation-based Parameters: 1. Soil Moisture at Freeze-Up (May-Oct. antecedent Year). 2. Snow Accumulation (November-March). 3. Spring/Early Summer Rains (April-July).
Parameter Analysis for Period 1933 2006 (74 years) Mean of 9 Long-Term Stations in Southern Manitoba Soil Moisture at Freeze-Up: out of 74 Dry 19 years Winter Precipitation: 74 Dry 19 years out of April July Precipitation: out of 74 Dry 16 years
Drought Persistence based on Parameter Analysis (Average of 9 Climate stations in Southern Manitoba) For 19 Years when SM at Freeze-Up was Low: Winter was Dry 5 times Wet 5 times Average 9 times April July was Dry 2 times Wet 7 times Average 10 times
Drought Analysis Average of 9 Stations in Southern Manitoba Of the 74 Years (1933 2006) in Southern Manitoba None had all three parameters below 80% of average. Following 12 years had low Parameters 1933 1934 1934 1940 1952 1961 1973 1977 1980 1988 2002 2004
Lake Winnipegosis Mean Monthly Elevation 833.00 832.00 Elevation (feet above sea level) 831.00 830.00 829.00 828.00 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Lake Winnipeg Mean Monthly Elevation 719.00 718.00 Recorded Summer Target 717.00 716.00 715.00 714.00 713.00 712.00 711.00 Jan-70 Jan-72 Jan-74 Jan-76 Jan-78 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Elevation (feet above sea level)
Lake of the Woods Mean Monthly Elevation for January 1062.00 1061.00 Monthly Recorded Average January (1970-2001) 1060.00 1059.00 1058.00 1057.00 1056.00 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Elevation (feet above sea level)
Split Lake at Split Lake Mean Monthly Elevation 554.00 554.00 552.00 552.00 Elevation (feet above sea level) 550.00 548.00 546.00 544.00 542.00 Recorded Average Predicted Dry Predicted Median 550.00 548.00 546.00 544.00 542.00 Jan-75 Jan-77 Jan-79 Jan-81 Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03
Red River at Emerson Mean Monthly Flow for January 4000 3500 January Recorded Average January (1970-2001) 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Flow (cfs)
Assiniboine River at Headingley Mean Monthly Flow for January 2000 January Recorded Average January (1970-2001) 1500 1000 500 0 1913 1918 1923 1928 1933 1938 1943 1948 1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 Flow (cfs)
Winnipeg River at Slave Falls Mean Monthly Flow for January 60000 50000 January Recorded Average January (1970-2001) 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1907 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Flow (cfs)
Grass River at Standing Stone Falls Mean Monthly Flow for January 4000 3500 January Recorded Normal January (1970-2001) 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Flow (cfs)
Lake Minnewasta near Morden Daily Average Elevation 1090.00 Elevation (feet above sea level) 1085.00 1080.00 1075.00 1070.00 1065.00 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07
Primary Drought Related Concerns Reservoir storages supplying communities. River levels to enable pumping for cities, towns, irrigation. Aquifer levels supplying communities, farms. Dugouts supplying water for cattle. Suitable lake levels for water supply, fish, recreation. Supplies for hydroelectric generation. Deterioration of Water Quality.
Primary Drought Sensitivities Summer reservoir operations sensitive to short intense meteorological droughts (2 4 weeks) within a relatively dry period. Multiple use reservoir operations sensitive to longer dry periods (several months to years). Rivers, dugouts sensitive to short droughts like 2006. Spring runoff very important but rest of year important also. Aquifers sensitive to multiple year droughts. Long term drought-proofing strategies sensitive to design drought (worst on record). Water uses sensitive to temperature. Water quality sensitive to flow rates, temperature and
Drought Information Sources Historical and real time levels of rivers, lakes, reservoirs, aquifers Water Survey of Canada, Manitoba Water Stewardship. Information on water uses Manitoba Water Stewardship and licensed users. Precipitation Data and Statistics Timely Climate Monitoring Network. Climate Outlooks MSC and NOAA. Soil Moisture Manitoba Water Stewardship, Manitoba Agriculture. Snowcover Manitoba Water Stewardship, Climate Research Branch. Drought Indices (NADM) PFRA. On-farm water supplies Manitoba Water Services Board, PFRA, Manitoba Agriculture. Information on local conditions regional staff of provincial and municipal government.
Water Supply Conditions and Outlook for Manitoba 2004 Based on Lower Decile Precipitation from February onward Water Branch, Manitoba Water Stewardship, February 5, 2004 Historical Droughts, Weather. Soil Moisture and SnowcoverConditions Status / Forecast for Major Rivers, Lakes, Reservoirs Aquifers, On-Farm Water supplies Potential Problems within each Major Watershed.
Cree Lake SASKATCHEWAN Reindeer Lake Lynne Lake Churchill Big Sand Lake 50 Southern Indian Lake Split Lake River 75 Stephens Lake 100 River River Gods Hudson Bay River Vermilion ALBERTA SASKATCHEWAN North Battleford Prince Albert La Ronge MANITOBA FlinFlon The Pas Highrock Lake Wekusko Lake Cedar Lake Thompson Sipiwesk Lake Lake Winnipeg Nelson Knee Lake Gods Lake Island Lake Hayes MANITOBA ONTARIO Sandy Lake Big Trout Lake Coronation Saskatoon 25 ONTARIO 75 50 MANITOBA WATER BRANCH Spring Runoff Forecast For 2004 With Lower Decile Precip. Feb.-April Percent of 30 Year Median PREPARED: DRAWN: SUBMITTED: Medicine Hat 100 A.A.W. DATE: Jan. 30, 2004 Swift Current Regina Yorkton Estevan 50 25 Minot Provisional Data ( Subject to Revision ) Dauphin Brandon U.S.A. MANITOBA Winnipeg Grand Forks Fargo Red Lake Kenora Lake of the Woods 25 Lac Seul 0 25 25 50 75 100 SCALE IN MILES Lake St. Joseph Atikokan 100 75 50 25
Feb. 3, 2004 Manitoba Water Stewardship Summary of Water Supply / Spring Flood Outlook for 2004 Based on Lower Decile Weather from now on. Spring Runoff: Rivers: -Well below average most areas due to dry soil, low depression storage (flood risk is very low). Lakes: -most larger rivers presently at 10 20 year lows. -Red, Assiniboine, Churchill lower than in 2003. -some improvement on Winnipeg River, Nelson River. -continued water shortages for optimum hydroelectric generation. -water quality, fishery a concern. -Many lakes presently at 10 20 year lows. -minor rise or decline expected in 2004. -water quality, recreation and fish a serious concern.
Feb. 3, 2004 Reservoirs: (operated by Manitoba Water Stewardship) Aquifers: -most reservoirs close to full after spring runoff. -reservoirs with small drainage areas will remain low. -could be some stress on Shellmouth Reservoir. -Most aquifers low but not as low as in early 1990 s. -minor rise in spring likely (significant in confined aquifers). -levels in autumn lower than in 2003 on heavily used aquifers. -wells on smaller aquifers could run dry. -fringe areas of major aquifers could run dry. -continued problems at Ogilvie Aquifers. -possible water access problems at Selkirk, Birds Hill, McCreary. On-Farm Water Supplies: -dugouts are very low in most areas except SE Manitoba. -should be enough water to pump-fill most dugouts this spring. -many shallow farm wells likely to run dry by late summer. -water hauling will be necessary where piped water not available. Manitoba Water Stewardship Summary of Water Supply / Spring Flood Outlook for 2004 Based on Lower Decile Weather from now on.
Lake Manitoba Forecast---2004 Hydrologic Forecast Centre, Jan 28, 2004 815 814 Observed Predicted Lower Decile Feet above Sea Level 813 812 811 Predicted Median Predicted Upper Decile Summer Target (under review) 810 809 Mar-01 May-01 Jul-01 Sep-01 Nov-01 Jan-02 Mar-02 May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04
1410 Shellmouth Reservoir Operation Scenarios---Jan. 28, 2004 Hydrologic Forecast Centre, Water Branch, Manitoba Water Stewardship Maintain 150 cfs unless Heavy Snow develops Lower Decile Level 1200 Median Level Reservoir Level in Feet 1405 1400 1395 Upper Decile Level Target After Spring Runoff Lower Decile Outflow Median Upper Decile 1000 800 600 400 Outflow in CFS 200 1390 0 Jan. 28/04 Jan. 31/04 Feb. 14/04 Feb. 28/04 Mar. 15/04 Mar. 31/04 Apr. 15/04 Apr. 30/04 May 15/04 May 31/04 June 15/04
Manitoba Water Stewardship Uses of Drought Information Hydrologic data is used in combination with soil moisture, precipitation, and climate statistics to prepare forecasts for rivers, reservoirs, and lakes. Control works operated based on forecasts and risk of drought continuing. Inter-Departmental Drought Committee activated when risk of water shortages is high. Plans formulated to cope with drought. Water conservation is undertaken uses restricted to important needs. Actions such as: -pumping to fill dugouts during spring. -water hauling. -deepening of wells, drilling new wells. -using alternate sources of water. -water rationing.
Pertinent DRI Research Forecasting onset of Droughts. Forecasting Duration of Droughts. Forecasting Spatial Extent of Drought. Forecasting Severity of Droughts. Statistics (probability) of various types of droughts for several time horizons e.g. 2050, 2100. Knowledge of Causes. (Frequency, Duration, Extent, Severity) e.g. Less Snow, Greater Evapotranspiration, different annual time distribution of runoff, summer dry or winter dry.
Manitoba Water Stewardship How can DRI work with us? Short Term (first year): Outline Objectives and Research Conducted. Ask Partners for Feedback. Progress Report at end of Year. Longer Term (next 4 years): Annual Progress Reports. Additional Workshop at end of 2 nd Year (or as Recommended by Researchers). Overview of significant results as soon as available.
Lake Winnipegosis Mean Monthly Elevation for January 833.00 Monthly Recorded Average January (1970-2001) 832.00 831.00 830.00 829.00 828.00 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Elevation (feet above sea level)
Lake Winnipeg Mean Monthly Elevation for January 719.00 718.00 Monthly Recorded Average January (1970-2001) 717.00 716.00 715.00 714.00 713.00 712.00 711.00 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Elevation (feet above sea level)
Lake of the Woods Mean Monthly Elevation 1062.00 Elevation (feet above sea level) 1061.00 1060.00 1059.00 1058.00 1057.00 1056.00 Recorded Jan-70 Jan-72 Jan-74 Jan-76 Jan-78 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Summer Target
Churchill River at Leaf Rapids Mean Monthly Flow for January 60000 50000 January Recorded Normal January (1973-2001) 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 Flow (cfs)