ICP. June 2005
Outline 1. Selected indicators 2. Selected issues 3. Societal response 4. Outlook
1. Selected indicators Reported landings Food Employment State of stocks Trade Fleet size
Reported marine production Reported marine production World World excluding China 120 120 100 100 Aquaculture Aquaculture 80 60 40 Capture 20 80 60 40 Capture 20 0 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 Million tonnes Million tonnes
Non-coastal marine landings 18 16 14 12 As % of total marine landings 10 8 6 4 2 In million tonnes 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003
Contribution to food Per capita supply with China Per capita supply w/o China 18 16 From aquaculture 18 16 From aquaculture 14 14 12 12 10 10 Kg 8 6 4 From capture fisheries 8 6 4 From capture fisheries 2 2 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003
Fishers 30 Milions Oceania 25 20 15 10 5 0 Asia Europe America Africa 1990 1995 2000 2002 More than 80% of capture fisheries employment is in Asia
International trade Value (Billion US$) 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20 1976 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0-0.05-0.1 Growth rate Trade has been growing at a reducing rate
Fish trade balance Surplus Deficit Billion US $ 8 6 4 2 0-2 -4-6 -8 Latin America and the Caribbean China Africa Oceania Canada and United States Europe Asia excluding China -10 1976 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003
Decked vessels > 100 tons Oceania Africa America Europe Close to 85% of the large vessels are in Asia Asia Source FAO
Age of vessels > 100 tons (2003) Over 25 years Source: FAO / Lloyds
2. Selected issues Classical Overfishing Overcapacity / fleet size Economic viability Subsidies Bycatch and discards Monitoring (MCS) Right-based systems Natural oscillations Fishmeal Statistics Capacity-building RFMOs Non-tariff barriers Precautionary approach New Extinction and FAO-CITES Capture-based aquaculture Labor standards Catch certification Ecolabelling Deep sea fisheries Stock recovery Biodiversity, ecosystem Emerging Risk management Fishery ethics Animal welfare
State of stocks: 2004 RISK Recovering 1% Depleted 7% Overexploited 17% Fully exploited 52% Moderately exploited 21% Underexploited 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Stocks trends: 1974-2003 60% Fully exploited 50% 40% Under exploited 30% 20% 10% Overexploited 0% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Overfishing % 100 Recovering Senescent 50 Mature Developing Undeveloped 0 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 Source: FAO (Garcia, Grainger et De leiva, 2004)
State of selected resources Top Predators Other Predators Epipelagic- Deepwater
State of stocks by region
State of world tuna stocks FISHING PRESSURE RELATIVE TO MSY 5 3 2 2 1 4 STOCK BIOMASS RELATIVE TO MSY 23% 59% 18% OVERALL
North Sea recovery 100 % Below precaution 80 60 40 Within buffer zone 20 Above precaution 0 1970 1990 2003 Garcia and De leiva, in press
Fleet size: From past to future 2500 New registrations Distant water fishing landings 18.00 2500 16.00 2000 14.00 2000 1500 1000 500 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 Yearly registrations 1500 1000 500 2.00 0 0.00 0 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 Distant water fisheries landings (% of world)
Fleet size: From past to future 2500 35000 New registrations 2000 30000 1500 25000 1000? 20000 15000 500 10000 0 5000 1945 1965 1985 2005 2025 2045 Fleet size
Deep sea: increased pressure! Patton Seamount: http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/
By catch and discards trends Million tonnes 90 80 96 91 60 40 84 Landings 77 20 0-10 -20 19 7 Discards 1980-1990s 1992-2004
Natural oscillations Climate Zonal ACI Pacific salmon Japanese pilchard About 50 years Climate Meridional ACI Atlantic cod Pacific herring 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: redrawn from FAO- Klyashtorin
Source: Fromentin, 2003. Ravier, 2003 Natural oscillations Mediterranean Bluefin tuna > 100 years Abundance 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950
Natural oscillations California Anchovy More than 1500 years? circa 100 years 280 480 680 880 1080 1280 1480 1680 1880
Climate change Climate Change Source Ifremer
Environmental degradation Fish Catch: 1900 = 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 Uzbekistan Tajikistan Kyrgyzstan Turkmenistan Kazakhstan Region total 0 1900 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Source: State of the Environment in the Aral Sea Basin, 2000
Food security: Dependence on fish 2 100% Population in trillions 1 Number of countries 44 43 27 24 11 12 6 7 13 4 6 3 9 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 % 50 Cumulative % Contribution of fish to animal protein consumption
3. Social response Media storming Consumer mobilisation Legal and policy frameworks
Media Storming
Consumer s s pressure
Policy changes The Code of Conduct: the agreed charter towards more responsible fisheries
4. Outlook Action required Main obstacles Old demons and emerging issues
Stronger commitment towards: An ecologically sustainable future A more responsible governance and industry (High seas) Further institutional reform towards more and better participation, anticipation, precaution, integration, monitoring and evaluation, decision-making and longer-term perspective; A redirected science: more inter-disciplinary, towards and with stakeholders, ecosystem-conscious, conscious, aimed at forecasting, risk assessment and policy-making; A more effective implementation of existing instruments.
Changing management policy Progressively eliminate old problems Reduce / suppress overcapacity and perverse subsidies Improve habitat protection and selectivity Pragmatically promote local democratic institutions Support local civic education Develop local governance capacity Transfer sufficient and appropriate powers Allocate secured communal or individual rights Ensure equitable adjudication Support equity and justice Establish minimum environmental standards Identify societal objectives and natural constraints Develop indicators for monitoring and evaluation Source: Modified from Ribot, J. C. (2002). Democratic decentralization of natural resources: Institutionalizing popular participation. Washington D.C. WRI
The Fisheries Tool Box Co management Decentralisation Enforcement Law Research Devolution Participation Fishing rights Capacity Building Information Fishing capacity reduction Market incentives Marine Fisheries Illegal Fishing Subsidies Precautionary Ecolabelling approach Ecosystem approach Bycatch MPAs Extinction risk Discards
Sectoral integration Sectoral integration Navigation Tourism Fisheries Oil & gas Aquaculture Économy Environment Information
Main obstacles Further broadening of an already large and contradictory set of objectives; Misfit between: The expectations of the users the available resources; The urgency of regulation and the social resilience to it; The ideal and affordable degree of integration and participation The desirable and affordable Information.
Emerging issues Fisheries ethics and human rights Bioethics and animal welfare Intrusion of tribunals in decision-making (and governance) Globalization by the market.
Old demons Excess fishing capacity Perverse subsidies Poor selectivity and unethical discards Critical habitats degradation Abuse of the <<freedom>> in the high seas Non-deterrent coercion Under-funded research Dominance of short-term term concerns and market forces
See more... SOFIA at: ftp://ftp.fao.org/docrep/fao/007/y5852e/y5852e00.pdf State of World Marine Fishery Resources http://www.fao.org/documents/show_cdr.asp?url_file=/docrep/007/y5600e/y 5600e00.htm